2016 - ahdb pork · contents poultry pocketbook 2016 page chapter 1 marketing chain table 1.1 uk...

Contents

Poultry Pocketbook 2016Page

Chapter 1 Marketing chain

Table 1.1 UK poultry meat supply balance ................................................ 3

Table 1.2 UK eggs supply balance .............................................................. 3

Table 1.3 EU poultry meat supply balance ................................................ 4

Table 1.4 EU egg supply balance ................................................................ 4

Chapter 2 Poultry numbers

Figure 2.1 Density of poultry flock, June 2013 ............................................ 5

Table 2.1 UK poultry numbers, June survey ............................................... 6

Table 2.2 UK chick and poult placings ........................................................ 6

Chapter 3 Slaughterings and production

Table 3.1 UK poultry slaughterings ............................................................ 7

Table 3.2 UK poultry meat production ...................................................... 7

Figure 3.1 UK broiler meat production ....................................................... 8

Figure 3.2 Average liveweight of broilers in England and Wales ................ 8

Table 3.3 UK egg packing station throughput ........................................... 9

Table 3.4 UK production of egg products by processors .......................... 9

Figure 3.3 EU broiler meat production, 2015 ........................................... 10

Figure 3.4 EU egg production for human consumption, 2015 .................. 10

Chapter 4 Poultry and egg prices

Table 4.1 Average UK egg packer price paid to producers ...................... 11

Figure 4.1 Average poultry compound feed price, GB .............................. 11

Figure 4.2 UK wholesale chicken prices .................................................... 12

Figure 4.3 UK wholesale hens’ egg prices ................................................. 12

1

Page

Figure 4.4 EU and UK broiler (65%) meat wholesale market price ........... 13

Figure 4.5 EU and UK egg (large and medium) wholesale market price .. 13

Chapter 5 Imports and exports

Table 5.1 UK egg trade by volume ........................................................... 14

Table 5.2 Volume and value of UK poultry meat imports ....................... 14

Table 5.3 Volume and value of UK poultry meat exports ....................... 15

Table 5.4 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat imports by source .................... 15

Table 5.5 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat exports by destination ............ 16

Table 5.6 UK processed poultry meat imports by source ....................... 16

Figure 5.1 Map of UK fresh/frozen poultry meat exports by destination 17

Table 5.7 UK processed poultry meat exports by destination ................ 18

Table 5.8 EU exports of poultry meat ...................................................... 18

Chapter 6 Consumption

Table 6.1 UK per capita consumption of major meats ............................ 19

Table 6.2 GB retail chicken and egg value sales by type of outlet .......... 19

Figure 6.1 Trends in GB household chicken purchases by volume ........... 20

Figure 6.2 Trends in GB household egg purchases by volume ................. 20

Figure 6.3 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of chicken by product, 2015 ...................................................................... 21

Figure 6.4 GB volume sales of chicken by product, 2015 ......................... 21

Figure 6.5 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of eggs, 2015 ...... 22

Figure 6.6 GB volume sales of eggs, 2015 ................................................. 22

Figure 6.7 Average GB retail price of chicken cuts, 2015 ......................... 23

Figure 6.8 Average GB retail price of eggs, 2015 ...................................... 23

Figure 6.9 Proportion of chicken products sold on promotion in GB retail outlets .................................................................... 24

Figure 6.10 Proportion of eggs sold on promotion in GB retail outlets ..... 24

Contents

2

Marketing chain

3

Chapter 1 – Marketing chainTable 1.1 UK poultry meat supply balance (a)

(a) Includes offals. (b) Includes trade in salted and processed poultry meat. All data in carcase weight equivalent.Source: Defra, GTIS/HMRC, AHDB Market Intelligence

(a) Includes shell egg equivalent of whole egg (dried, frozen and liquid), egg yolk and albumen.* ProvisionalSource: Defra

'000 tonnes 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Production 1,558 1,607 1,661 1,646 1,690

Imports (b) 857 817 824 872 939

Exports (b) 344 334 382 388 323

Total consumption 2,070 2,091 2,103 2,130 2,306

Self-sufficiency (%) 75 77 79 77 73

million dozen 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Production (for human consumption) 826 821 797 829 839

of which: sold in shell 673 664 654 695 695

processed 152 158 143 134 144

Imports (a) 136 126 163 153 158

Exports (a) 8 11 19 23 11

Total consumption 953 937 941 959 986


Table 1.2 UK eggs supply balance

Marketing chain

4

Note: The EU Commission has revised the series compared with last year’s edition of the pocketbook.(a) Includes poultry offals.(e) estimateSource: EU Commission

Note: The EU Commission has revised the series compared with last year’s edition of the pocketbook. All data is in whole egg equivalent.(e) estimateSource: EU Commission

'000 tonnes 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)

Indigenous production 12,359 12,692 12,798 13,270 13,766

Imports 832 842 792 822 853

Exports 1,299 1,316 1,303 1,361 1,361

Total consumption 11,892 12,217 12,287 12,732 13,258


'000 tonnes 2011 2012 2013 2014 (e) 2015 (e)

Indigenous production 7,039 7,029 7,341 7,387 7,564

Imports 23 40 22 16 20

Exports 259 235 279 309 346

Eggs for hatching 874 987 910 878 902

Human consumption 5,928 5,847 6,174 6,216 6,336


Table 1.3 EU poultry meat supply balance (a)

Table 1.4 EU egg supply balance

Poultry numbers

5

Figure 2.1 Density of poultry flock, June 2013

Data covers commercial holdings only.Source: AHDB Market Intelligence, Defra, Welsh Government, DARD, Scottish Government

Chapter 2 – Poultry numbers

6

Poultry numbers

million head 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Commercial broilers 896 918 943 937 972Commercial layers 32 35 34 35 36Turkeys (a) 17 18 17 16 17Female broiler breeders (b) 7 7 7 8 9

Table 2.2 UK chick and poult placings

(a) Includes female breeder poults.(b) Female parents only. Excludes grandparent chicks and ‘by-product’ chicks. Includes imported female parent chicks. Source: Defra

Table 2.1 UK poultry numbers, June survey

(a) Due to production cycles, subgroups within the poultry population are often volatile as the ‘point in time’ nature of the June Survey can lead to large variations in the numbers in each category.Source: Defra

million head (a) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total poultry 163 160 163 170 168

Total breeding and laying fowl 49 47 47 48 50

of which:

Hens and pullets laying eggs for eating 38 37 36 37 37

Total breeding flock 10 10 11 11 13

Table chickens (broilers) 102 103 105 110 107

Other poultry 11 11 11 11 11

of which:

Turkeys 4 4 4 4 4

7

Slaughterings and production

'000 tonnes Broilers Boiling fowl Turkey Ducks Total

2000 1,163 52 264 41 1,5192005 1,282 51 192 37 1,5642010 * 1,323 53 162 30 1,5682011 1,297 56 171 33 1,5582012 1,322 58 196 32 1,6072013 1,388 55 187 30 1,6612014 1,383 58 172 32 1,6462015 1,418 65 178 29 1,690

Table 3.2 UK poultry meat production (a)

Chapter 3 – Slaughterings and productionTable 3.1 UK poultry slaughterings

* 53-week statistical yearNote: Boiling fowl includes spent hens and spent breeders.Source: Defra

* 53-week statistical year(a) Excludes other bird types, eg geese.Source: Defra

million head Broilers Boiling fowl Turkeys2000 760 38 272005 827 38 192010 * 863 41 162011 855 44 172012 874 46 182013 902 42 182014 900 42 152015 930 45 16


8

Figure 3.1 UK broiler meat production

Figure 3.2 Average liveweight of broilers in England and Wales

* 53-week statistical yearSource: Defra

* 53-week statistical yearSource: Defra

1,163

1,282 1,323

1,297 1,322

1,388 1,383 1,418

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

'000 tonnes

2.21

2.24

2.21

2.182.19

2.24 2.232.22

2.10

2.12

2.14

2.16

2.18

2.20

2.22

2.24

2.26

2000 2005 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

kg

2.21

2.24

2.21

2.182.19

2.24 2.232.22

2.10

2.12

2.14

2.16

2.18

2.20

2.22

2.24

2.26

2000 2005 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

kg


9

'000 cases Total Enriched Barn Free range Organic

2000 22,460 16,187 1,675 4,598 n/a

2005 24,584 15,558 1,564 7,462 n/a

2010 27,067 13,522 1,334 11,283 928

2011 26,921 13,128 1,075 11,879 838

2012 25,922 12,596 948 11,716 662

2013 26,901 13,606 890 11,795 610

2014 27,097 14,097 782 11,591 627

2015 27,834 14,213 661 12,302 658

Table 3.3 UK egg packing station throughput

Table 3.4 UK production of egg products by processors

1 case = 360 eggsn/a = Not availableSource: Defra

* combined from 2010 onwardsSource: Defra

tonnes Liquid egg Hard boiled * Other * Total

2000 75,022 n/a 16,756 91,778

2005 78,066 28,649 13,630 120,345

2010 64,459 33,188 97,648

2011 67,908 32,518 100,426

2012 66,338 24,503 90,841

2013 62,338 32,667 95,005

2014 66,910 34,968 101,878

2015 67,624 31,850 99,474

10


Source: EU Commission

Figure 3.3 EU broiler meat production, 2015

Figure 3.4 EU egg production for human consumption, 2015


908800 790

690 653 645

527

335

1,322

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

FR IT DE ES UK NL PL RO Others

'000 tonnes

1,748

1,418 1,305

1,178 1,170 1,009

915

349 246

1,973

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

PL UK DE ES FR NL IT HU BE Others

'000 tonnes

11

Poultry and egg prices

pence per dozen All Enriched Barn Free range Organic

2000 39.7 32.3 48.6 62.32005 45.7 34.4 52.0 67.92010 70.1 53.6 72.2 84.4 135.52011 70.0 53.9 72.6 83.1 131.62012 86.2 72.2 c 97.7 c2013 90.2 74.3 c 105.2 c2014 84.1 67.8 c 100.1 c2015 82.1 64.1 c 98.8 c

Note: Data cover all Class A eggs passed over a grader, including seconds. Prices include bonus payments from 2012.From 2006 the average UK “All” types price includes organic eggs.c = confidentialSource: Defra

Chapter 4 – Poultry and egg pricesTable 4.1 Average UK egg packer price paid to producers

Figure 4.1 Average poultry compound feed price, GB

Source: Defra

270 271

298

262

238 242 243 242225

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

£/tonne

Source: Defra

Figure 4.1 Average poultry compound feed price, GB


12

Figure 4.2 UK wholesale chicken prices

Source: Defra/London wholesale market

Figure 4.3 UK wholesale hens’ egg prices

Source: Defra/London wholesale market

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16

p/kg

Fresh broiler - 1.35kg - 1.55kg Fresh skinless breast filletsFresh skinless breast fillets (callibrated) Frozen broiler - 1.15kg - 2.05kg

320

140125

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


p/dozen

Large 63-73 g

Medium 53-63 g

98

108


13

Figure 4.4 EU and UK broiler (65%) meat wholesale market price


Figure 4.5 EU and UK egg (large and medium) wholesale market price


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180


p/kg dwEU UK

UK is frozen bird price, EU is mixture of fresh and frozen

135

123

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


p/kg

UK EU

9891

14

Imports and exports

Chapter 5 – Imports and exportsTable 5.1 UK egg trade by volume

'000 cases 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)

ImportsShell eggs 1,395 2,281 1,718 1,851 1,606 Egg products 2,815 3,157 3,382 3,413 3,957 Total 4,210 5,438 5,099 5,263 5,564

ExportsShell eggs 221 269 280 243 180Egg products 137 363 504 130 118Total 358 632 784 374 298

1 case = 360 eggs All data converted to shell egg equivalent. (e) estimate Source: Defra

tonnes, product weight 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fresh/frozen poultry (inc offals) 412,368 382,067 383,812 407,833 438,237

Salted poultry 47,508 43,439 49,610 56,098 60,390

Processed poultry 278,732 292,288 291,197 305,893 336,424Total 738,608 717,794 724,619 769,824 835,051

£'000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fresh/frozen poultry (inc offals) 1,078,530 936,144 956,793 1,020,954 1,030,287 Salted poultry 102,571 85,009 103,090 113,318 112,304 Processed poultry 797,679 802,476 848,425 888,716 913,179

Total 1,978,780 1,823,629 1,908,308 2,022,987 2,055,771

Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.2 Volume and value of UK poultry meat imports

15

Imports and exports


Fresh/frozen poultry (inc offals) 295,241 289,787 342,161 351,058 291,107

Salted poultry 3,971 2,929 2,433 3,411 3,571Processed poultry 45,511 45,850 42,586 48,517 44,776Total 344,723 338,566 387,180 402,986 339,454

£’000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fresh/frozen poultry (inc offals) 306,725 273,987 329,627 296,300 227,784Salted poultry 9,623 6,646 5,466 8,593 6,665Processed poultry 143,602 137,584 126,483 135,492 116,016Total 459,950 418,217 461,577 440,385 350,465

Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.3 Volume and value of UK poultry meat exports


Total 412,368 382,067 383,812 407,833 438,237

of which from:

Netherlands 169,462 180,940 178,619 178,496 190,549

Poland 43,497 46,817 51,874 55,873 65,583

Ireland 66,799 28,694 25,456 35,154 38,133

Germany 31,272 25,979 26,331 30,133 31,662

Belgium 20,644 28,008 25,887 30,786 30,761

Italy 9,709 14,679 12,449 10,587 15,775

France 20,276 14,877 13,224 13,476 10,724

Romania 2,224 3,086 7,052 6,901 10,572

Spain 2,508 1,442 3,647 6,005 8,198

Note: Includes offals.Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.4 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat imports by source

16

Imports and exports


Total 295,241 289,787 342,161 351,058 291,107

of which to:

(EU 28) (197,773) (203,352) (249,115) (244,619) (222,480)

Netherlands 52,799 66,378 100,521 107,917 92,028

Ireland 46,048 48,786 46,437 45,877 43,090

Germany 26,212 15,882 19,339 22,702 23,770

France 23,986 18,657 21,073 21,911 21,675

Spain 15,555 17,029 16,020 12,454 16,509

Belgium 5,917 8,862 14,822 11,569 6,777

South Africa 24,722 26,602 38,341 43,013 18,157

Hong Kong 40,215 25,449 20,876 25,811 17,688

Philippines 2,696 1,413 2,222 3,272 5,274

Note: Includes offals.Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.5 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat exports by destination


Total 278,732 292,288 291,197 305,893 336,424

of which from:

(EU 28) (111,180) (128,400) (134,143) (132,495) (159,166)

Netherlands 28,164 33,467 31,370 32,312 39,784

Ireland 27,674 28,539 33,300 29,970 31,490

Poland 10,490 11,989 14,633 16,478 25,678

Germany 13,092 15,607 14,665 14,324 25,348

France 4,817 9,013 11,411 11,375 11,994

Belgium 2,596 4,594 5,028 8,683 7,496

Thailand 138,900 134,479 116,651 124,650 127,223

Brazil 19,939 21,456 29,008 40,414 42,229

China 5,861 6,008 8,963 7,223 6,894

Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.6 UK processed poultry meat imports by source

17

Imports and exportsFi

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Imports and exports


Total 45,511 45,850 42,586 48,517 44,776

of which to:

Ireland 27,602 25,598 22,159 22,124 20,157

Netherlands 5,912 6,543 5,642 9,299 8,872

Germany 4,981 5,972 6,724 5,705 5,476

Source: GTIS/HMRC

Table 5.7 UK processed poultry meat exports by destination

Table 5.8 EU exports of poultry meattonnes, product weight 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total 1,265,163 1,236,838 1,231,484 1,294,613 1,301,119

of which to:

South Africa 89,207 129,690 150,993 195,083 209,465

Saudi Arabia 150,523 147,725 153,514 121,817 141,375

Benin 123,994 136,887 137,102 162,840 135,721

Hong Kong 187,230 109,611 101,565 120,083 87,155

Philippines 22,179 22,186 26,707 43,794 73,069

Ghana 66,855 66,951 72,953 56,115 67,464

Ukraine 60,550 77,250 54,672 57,775 66,251

Gabon 24,970 25,601 24,494 28,788 36,432

Congo Dem. Rep. 28,727 33,050 27,340 32,496 34,845

Congo 18,170 17,957 22,108 26,299 33,523

Macedonia 20,318 27,177 30,143 28,187 26,687

Malaysia 20,524 23,499 26,938 25,149 24,571

Vietnam 29,001 17,447 11,651 18,038 24,484

China 16,159 10,115 14,196 13,734 21,997

Togo 18,467 18,387 18,074 18,382 20,973

Liberia 10,478 11,606 13,394 12,656 20,825

Source: GTIS, Eurostat

19

Consumption

Chapter 6 – Consumption

Supplies available for consumption. All data in carcase weight equivalent. Source: AHDB Market Intelligence calculations based on data from Defra, HMRC, ONS

kg/person/year Poultry meat

Pig meat

Beef & veal

Total meat

2000 30.5 23.6 18.5 79.2

2005 31.8 24.7 20.7 83.4

2006 31.2 24.9 20.9 83.2

2007 30.0 25.7 20.9 82.8

2008 29.5 24.5 20.0 80.0

2009 29.9 24.3 18.2 77.9

2010 31.8 24.1 18.6 79.4

2011 32.7 24.6 18.1 80.0

2012 32.8 24.6 18.0 79.7

2013 32.8 23.9 17.3 78.6

2014 33.0 24.4 17.8 79.8

2015 35.4 25.0 18.1 83.7

Table 6.2 GB retail chicken and egg value sales by type of outlet

Data covers 52 weeks ending early January of the following year.Source: Kantar WorldPanel

% Multiples Freezer centres Butchers Other

Chicken

2013 88.3 5.3 3.5 3.0

2014 87.9 5.0 4.0 3.1

2015 87.9 5.1 3.8 3.2

Eggs

2013 86.8 4.7 1.6 7.0

2014 86.8 5.3 1.4 6.5

2015 88.1 5.2 1.2 5.5

Table 6.1 UK per capita consumption of major meats

20

Consumption

Figure 6.1 Trends in GB household chicken purchases by volume

Figure 6.2 Trends in GB household egg purchases by volume

Note: Figures include ‘Ready to cook’ and ‘Chilled main meal accompaniment’ products.Source: Kantar WorldPanel

Source: Kantar WorldPanel

5,000,000

5,100,000

5,200,000

5,300,000

5,400,000

5,500,000

5,600,000

01Feb

01Mar

29Mar

26Apr

24May

21Jun

19Jul

16Aug

13Sep

11Oct

08Nov

06Dec

03Jan

2013 2014 2015

'000s (52 weeks ending)

570,000

575,000

580,000

585,000

590,000

595,000

600,000

605,000

610,000

01Feb

01Mar

29Mar

26Apr

24May

21Jun

19Jul

16Aug

13Sep

11Oct

08Nov

06Dec

03Jan

2013 2014 2015

tonnes (52 weeks ending)

21

Consumption

Figure 6.3 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of chicken by product, 2015

Data covers 52 weeks ending early January of the following year. Source: Kantar WorldPanel

Figure 6.4 GB volume sales of chicken by product, 2015

Data covers 52 weeks ending 3 January 2016. Source: Kantar WorldPanel

137,610

212,642

78,317

2,773

43,210

1,459 5,122 4,35023,128

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Freshbreasts

Freshwhole

Freshleg

Freshroll/roast

Frozenbreasts

Frozenwhole

FrozenLeg

Frozenroll/roast

Slicedcooked

tonnes

12.5

-0.7

3.9

-2.5 -0.2

-58.3

-17.7

15.4

4.12.1

-4.9-1.7

-7.2 -4.9

-57.7

-16.3

5.8

-0.6

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Freshbreasts

Freshwhole

Freshleg

Freshroll/roast

Frozenbreasts

Frozenwhole

FrozenLeg

Frozenroll/roast

Slicedcooked

yoy % change

Volume Value

22

Consumption

Figure 6.5 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of eggs, 2015

Data covers 52 weeks ending early January of the following year. Source: Kantar WorldPanel

Figure 6.6 GB volume sales of eggs, 2015


1.0

8.8

14.6

1.0

-24.8

-3.7

8.9

-9.7

-28-24-20-16-12

-8-4048

121620

Barn Free range non-organic

Free range organic Non-free range

yoy % changeVolume Value

159,717

2,923,694

68,926

2,430,022

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Barn Free range non-organic


'000 eggs

23

Consumption

Figure 6.7 Average GB retail price of chicken cuts, 2015

Figure 6.8 Average GB retail price of eggs, 2015



10

18

35

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Barn Free rangenon-organic


price per egg (p)

7.02

2.793.39

8.38

3.95

2.36 2.07

5.10

6.84

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Freshbreasts

Freshwhole

Fresh leg Freshroll/roast

Frozenbreasts

Frozenwhole

Frozen leg Frozenroll/roast

Slicedcooked

price per kg (£)

24

Consumption

Figure 6.9 Proportion of chicken products sold on promotion in GB retail outlets

Figure 6.10 Proportion of eggs sold on promotion in GB retail outlets



13.3

23.5

5.2

15.5

45.6

26.3

8.8

19.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Barn Free range non-organic Free range organic Non-free range

% of total volume

52 w/e 04 Jan 15

52 w/e 03 Jan 16

45.3

36.4 32.0

49.8

34.930.2

23.528.7 28.5

36.339.5

30.7

45.6

32.4

23.5

16.1

30.027.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Freshbreasts

Freshwhole

Fresh leg Freshroll/roast

Frozenbreasts

Frozenwhole

Frozen leg Frozenroll/roast

Slicedcooked

% of total volume

52 w/e 04 Jan 15

52 w/e 03 Jan 16

Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board Stoneleigh Park Kenilworth Warwickshire CV8 2TL Tel: 024 7669 2051 www.ahdb.org.uk

© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2016. All rights reserved.

While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document.

Cover Images:Chicken & Egg - Tsekhmister/Shutterstock.comRaw Chicken - Jiri Hera/Shutterstock.com

ISBN 978-1-904437-97-0

2016 - ahdb pork · contents poultry pocketbook 2016 page chapter 1 marketing chain table 1.1 uk...

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