Telling Canada’s story in numbers

Scott McLeish

Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division

UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics

October 30-31, 2017

2016 Census of Population of Canada: Integration of

immigration administrative data

www.statcan.gc.ca

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA2

Presentation overview

• Census immigration data

• Administrative data

• 2016 Census developments

• Record linkages

• Improved processing

• New admission category variables

• Summary and next steps

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA3

The Census of Population is an important source of

information about immigrants in Canada

• The Canadian Census of Population collects several variables

related to immigration through the questionnaire:

• Immigrant status and year of immigration

• Place of birth

• Citizenship

• Generation status (based on place of birth of parents)

• In addition, several socio-economic topics are covered to

permit detailed analysis of immigrants in Canada

• Demographics

• Income, labour and education

• Housing, households and families

• Languages

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA4

Census processing

• Consistency edits and donor imputation are performed to

address missing, invalid or inconsistent values

• Missing, invalid or inconsistent values could be the result

of different factors:• Respondents may not understand the question (e.g. year of immigration vs. year

of arrival)

• Respondents may not remember their exact year of immigration

• Proxy responses (the person filling out the questionnaire may not know the true

values for everyone in the household)

• Ambiguous responses which could refer to multiple values (e.g. ‘Ireland’)

• Changing boundaries and place names

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA5

Donor imputation methods are used for

missing values• Goal: to find the nearest neighbour (donor)

• How do we define the “nearest neighbour”?

• Determine a list of variables that are correlated with the missing variable

(matching variables)• Languages

• Age

• Completed immigration questions

• Other ethnocultural variables

• Geography

• Determine the relative importance (weight) of the matching variables

• Calculate the dissimilarity between the record to be imputed and the

potential donor records using the matching variables

• For most census immigration questions, less than 2% of

records require imputation

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA6

Administrative data provides detailed information

on the flow of immigrants to Canada

• Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC)

collects data on all immigrants when they are admitted to

Canada

• Detailed information on admissions since 1980

• Includes variables also collected on the census questionnaire:• Immigrant status and year of immigration

• Place of birth

• Includes additional details on conditions at time of admission• Immigrant admission category (e.g. economic immigrant, refugee, etc.)

• Intended occupation, knowledge of official languages, previous experience in Canada

• No updates are made and data does not account for deaths or

emigration

• This data is linked with annual tax files to create the

Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB)

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA7

2016 Census: Record linkage to combine both

data sources• Similar to linkages done in 2006 and 2011, the 2016

Census was linked with the administrative data:• Immigrants from 1980 to 2016

• Immigrants from 1952 to 1979• Less detailed records

• Temporary residents• Temporary foreign workers

• International students

• Asylum claimants

• About 90% of immigrants who landed from 1980 to 2016 were linked

• Estimated 0.3% false positives

2017-10-278

Administrative data illustrated effects of inconsistent

responses and corresponding consistency edits

7.6% of respondents who were linked to administrative immigration records responded “No” to the immigrant status question. This proportion increases the longer they have been in Canada. These cases are largely corrected during processing based on other responses (e.g. reporting going through the immigration process to become Canadian citizens.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Years since being admitted (from linked administrative records)

Percentage of respondents linked to IRCC immigration records who respond that they are not immigrants by years since landing

2016 Census 2011 NHS 2006 Census

2017-10-279

Year of immigration requires more imputation due to

consistency edit for immigrant status question

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Place of birth Citizenship Immigrantstatus

Year ofimmigration

Place of birthof father

Place of birthof mother

Imputation rates for ethnocultural variables (%)

2006 Census 2011 NHS 2016 Census

Note: The use of IRCC data in donor selection necessarily ensures that the imputed values will be more similar to IRCC

values. However, these were not imputed deterministically - the linked IRCC values were only used to select a donor.

2017-10-2710

Administrative data improved donor selection by

introducing strongly correlated matching variables

63.9%

7.5%

14.7%

13.8%

14.8%

35.0%

6.5%

43.8%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

2016 Census 2011 NHS

Consistency of imputed years of immigration with linked IRCC values

Same 1 year different 2-5 year different More than 5 years different

63.9% of imputed 2016 Census year of immigration values matched their linked IRCC values. This compares with only 7.5% from the 2011 NHS.

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA11

Administrative data provided new analytical variables

on immigrant admission category

• In collaboration with IRCC, new variables were added to

the 2016 Census regarding admission category of

immigrants

• Immigrants are admitted into Canada for different reasons:

• Economic immigrants

• Sponsored family members

• Refugees

• Analysis can connect the conditions under which

immigrants were admitted with socio-economic outcomes

from the census

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA12

Economic immigrant categories

Economic immigrant

Federal investor

Quebec investor

Federal self-employed

Quebec self-employed

Federal skilled worker

Quebec skilled worker

Federal entrepreneur

Quebec entrepreneur

Provincial and territorial nominee

Business programs

Canadian experience class

Skilled trades worker

Caregiver

Entrepreneur

Investor

Self-employed

Worker programs

Skilled worker

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA13

Refugee categories

Blended visa office-referred refugee

Privately sponsored refugee

Government-assisted refugee

Dependant abroad of a protected person in Canada

Protected person in Canada

Resettled refugee

Refugee

Protected person in Canada

or dependant abroad

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA14

Similar to other census variables, consistency edits

and donor imputation methods were developed

• Imputation was stratified based on family characteristics

• Couples (especially with matching years of immigration)

• Children and parents

• ReliefF algorithm was used to determine the relative weight of

matching variables when selecting donors

• Non-parametric method using similar assumptions as nearest-

neighbour imputation: records with similar matching variables should

come from the same class

• More predictive variables are given more importance when selecting a

donor• Matching variables which are different between classes have weights increased

• Matching variables which are different within classes have weights decreased

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA15

Matching variables by predictive value (descending)

Adults in a couple

Adults not in a couple

Place of birth

Year of immigration

Spouse's admission cat.Year of immigration

Place of birth

Age at immigration

Province of residence

Sex

Subsidized housing

Spouse has same year of

immigration

Spouse has a different year

of immigration

Age at immigrationMarital status

Highest level education

Knowledge off. languages

Province of residence

Occupation

Sex

Spouse's admission cat.

Spouse's applicant type

Place of birth

Year of immigration

Age at immigration

Highest level education

Occupation

Province of residence

Knowledge off. languages

Spouse's year immigration

Highest level education

Spouse's applicant type

Sex

Knowledge off. languages

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA16

During testing, imputation results were in line with

original results even for small subpopulations

Source: Statistics Canada, Edit and imputation test data, 2011 National Household Survey and Immigrant landing file linkage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Year of immigration

Economic immigrant Immigrant sponsored by family Refugee Other immigrant

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA17

Final 2016 Census results were certified against

other data sources

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Year of immigration

Number of immigrants by year of immigration and data source

2016 Census Administrative count (upper bound) 2014 tax filers (lower bound)

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA18

Admission category variables aligned with

other data sources after imputation

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Year of immigration

Number of skilled workers by year of immigration and data source

2016 Census Administrative count (upper bound)

2014 tax filers (lower bound) Weighted linkage results

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA19

Summary and next steps

• 2016 Census immigration data were enhanced with

integrated administrative data

• Improvements made to processing

• New variables add analytical value to important data source for

immigrants in Canada (collaboration with IRCC)

• Immigration results were released October 25th, 2017• Including new admission category variables

• Reference material released providing context and explanations of

variables and comparability with past results

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA20

Acknowledgements

• Partners at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship

Canada

• Lorna Jantzen and colleagues

• Social Survey Methods and Household Survey Methods

Divisions• Andrew Stelmack, Lyne Guertin, Sean Crowe, Piotr Biernot, Caroline

Pelletier, Paul Cascagnette, and Colin Babyak

• Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division• Kathryn Spence, Eric Mongrain, Laetitia Martin, Hélène Maheux,

Mireille Vézina, Chantal Poirier, Hyunji Lee, and Jarod Dobson

2017-10-27STATISTICS CANADA • STATISTIQUE CANADA21

Contact information

Scott McLeish

Chief, Census and Administrative Data

Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division

Statistics Canada

scott.mcleish@canada.ca

Ces diapositives sont aussi disponibles en français.