2016 food trends 4 - menutrends, food - datassential€¦ · macro 3 foodbytes december 2015 green...

FoodBytesDECEMBER 2015

20 FOOD TRENDS16

MACRO TRENDSTHAT WILL REDEFINE THE INDUSTRY4

MICRO TRENDSYOU ABSOLUTELY NEED TO KNOW IN THE YEAR AHEAD5

FLAVORSTHAT WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING10

datassential.com | 312-655-0596

In deciding which trends will impact the industry in 2016, this year Datassential wanted to focus on both the macro-level trends that are redefining the industry, as well as the micro trends that are impacting specific ingredients or segments in the shorter term. We looked at the major trends that are influencing the overall culture and economy, from generational shifts to economic drivers, and combined them with our industry-leading data from services like MenuTrends and LOCAL, to understand how the food industry will be affected in the year ahead.

We see how demographic changes will affect U.S. cuisine and blur the lines between “global” and “American.” We look at the huge investment in the food delivery sector, which is building a massive infrastructure to deliver traditionally away-from-home foods directly into the home. We show you how focusing on hyper-regional flavors and dishes can help you connect with consumers. We also discover how alternatives are disrupting foundational ingredients, like milk or flour.

At the macro level, 2016 will be the year of charred and burnt menu items and pulses. You’ll see the savory trend continue to evolve into the “new, new savory,” which transforms traditionally sweet items into dishes that may be entirely savory, like yogurts and oatmeals. Meanwhile, juxtaposed concepts and food halls offer a little something for every type of consumer. We also bring you the top 10 flavors and ingredients that you need to know, from espelette to berbere.

Together, these trends can help you to make your products and brand more personal for the consumer, by crafting a trend-driven story and customizing dishes, products, and concepts that speak directly to customer needs and wants. To better understand how to leverage these trends, contact Datassential today and schedule a presentation of these trends for your organization, where you can ask questions and dive deep into the data and research. Together we’ll help you respond to these trends in the next year. Contact Dave Jenkins at 847-903-5744 or [email protected].

CHANGES BIG AND SMALLDATASSENTIAL PUTS IT ALL INTO FOCUS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD


Seared Steak & Charred Nectarine Salad from Hello Fresh delivery service exemplifies two of this year’s trends – “Foodservice Comes Home” and “Charred & Burnt.”

2 datassential.com | 312-219-6435

macro 1Boston’s Bon Me started as a food truck and has now grown to 4 restaurants and

6 food trucks. It specializes in banh mi, the Vietnamese sandwich.


don‘t call it ethnic

Based on demographics alone, a more diverse, global cuisine isinevitable in the United States. Generation Z, born 1997 or later,comprises only 20% of the U.S. population today, but will account for40% by 2020. For this generation, ethnic cuisine isn’t ethnic cuisine –it’s simply “cuisine.” Indeed, nearly half, or 47%, of this generation is“ethnic” or non-white, vs. only 28% of Baby Boomers and 38% ofGeneration X. Not only is this a multicultural generation itself, but itis also comparatively more interested in cuisines like Korean orVietnamese compared to other demographic groups – a quarter ofGeneration Z is interested in Indian cuisine, compared to 11% of BabyBoomers (see sidebar). Because they are more comfortable withthese cuisines, they are moving beyond painting ethnic cuisine with abroad brush, overall and even in reference to specific cuisines, andare instead focusing on individual dishes. Instead of going out forMexican or Japanese food, they may go out for tacos or ramen.

These changes will have a wide-ranging impact throughout the foodindustry – it simply doesn’t make sense to have a broad “ethnic food”strategy anymore. Instead, you have to incorporate global foods intothe general strategy while zeroing in on specific foods and flavors.Of course, this transition will also impact all demographic groups,who will be exposed to more dishes and flavors than ever before.

GENERATION Z WILL ACCOUNT FOR 40% OF THE POPULATION BY 2020. FOR THIS GENERATION, ETHNIC CUISINE IS SIMPLY 'CUISINE'.

59% 56%50% 47%

Boomers Gen X Gen Y Gen Z

American Food

40% 41%37%

31%


8%

17% 16%

23%


11%

19% 20%25%


Generation Z is comparatively less interested in

well-established cuisines than other generations

and more interested in emerging multi-cultural

influences, like Vietnamese and Indian cuisines.

Southern Food

Vietnamese Food

Indian Food

CUISINE INTEREST

datassential.com | 312-655-05963 datassential.com | 312-219-6435

0

Full

scratch

50%

Mostly

scratch

35% Mostly

prepared

foods

25%

Home

leftovers

28%

AFH

leftovers

41%

macro 2

Journalist and cookbook author Mark Bittman left his job at the New York Times to join vegetarian delivery startup Purple Carrot. “It is a crowded space, but it’s a growing space,” Bittmantold NPR when asked about the number of meal delivery startups. At Left: Purple Carrot’s red lentil stew with cranberries.


foodservice comes home

Next-generation consumers are not only comfortable with technology, but demographic groups like Generation Z are dependent onit – and they are using it to bring the best parts of eating out into their home. Consumers across demographic groups growincreasingly more comfortable with ordering goods and services online every day, from books to taxis, and a majority of consumershave a powerful computer in their pocket to do the ordering – 64% of all American adults own a smartphone, a figure that jumps upto 85% for consumers ages 18-29, according to the Pew Research Center.

A wealth of startups and established players have been taking advantage of these trends, building a vast infrastructure dedicated toone thing – getting food directly into the consumer’s house. In fact, capital investment in online ordering is expected to reach over$1 billion for the first time this year, nearly double what was invested in 2014. There is certainly an opportunity – consumers aren’tnecessarily engaged with most at-home food. In fact, 44% of consumers say they eat at home because it’s comfortable, and 30%say it’s because the TV, computer, or some other piece of technology/equipment is at home, while only 14% said it’s because theycrave at-home food. Consumers are more excited about away-from-home leftovers than most of the food they make at home.

These changes are impacting the broader food landscape. Restaurants have to consider how food travels, if it reheats well, and theease of their online ordering systems. Earlier this year Olive Garden brought back its “Buy One, Take One” promotion, with a secondmeal packaged and designed to be reheated the next day. Consumer packaged goods companies will also have to react to thethreat as the away-from-home sector continues to look for ways to eat into the at-home dollar.

LEVEL OF EXCITEMENT WITH FOOD AT HOME

Consumers are more excited about away-from-home leftovers than they are most of what they eat at home.


based on preparation method

macro 3


Green Chile 515

Prickly Pear 352

Machaca 292

Churrasco 936

Conch 833

Key Lime Pie 296

Guisada 2,113

Chalupa 1,514

Shiner Bock 814

Haddock 1,618

Bulkie Roll 1,11

Chowder 566

PHOENIX

MIAMI

SAN ANTONIO

BOSTON

St. Louis is only a short day-trip across the state ofIllinois from Chicago – a little over 300 miles away,or about 5 hours. Yet, each city has its own,distinctive food culture, with dishes andingredients that you are far more likely to find inthat metro area than anywhere else in the country– Italian beef and mostaccioli in Chicago, or Proveland toasted ravioli in St. Louis.

In the 1980s it was all about understandingnational trends, in the 2000s we focused on trenddifferences in the major regions (West, Southwest,Midwest, Northeast), and today we are drillingdown even more in order to connect withconsumers by understanding truly local trendsdriven by smaller metropolitan areas. Becauseeven small geographical distances can have a hugeimpact on what consumers see and want,Datassential’s LOCAL tool crunches the numbersto see which foods index higher for particularmetro areas – seafood and fish varieties, forinstance, are consistently hyper-local.

By understanding these differences, the foodindustry can connect with consumers on a morepersonal level, and even the largest chains canfeel smaller to consumers (and consumersconsistently tell us that smaller is better). Fastcasuals have been particularly good at this – BlazePizza locations in Chicago feature giardiniera as anoption (the third highest indexing food in thearea), while Shake Shack locations often featurelocal favorites, like Kreuz Market jalapeno cheesesausages in Austin, Texas, or Philly soft pretzelconcretes in Philadelphia. Operators can alsoextend these menu items to other markets, givingconsumers in one metro area a taste of anothercity across the country – “try the Miami burger!”in Portland, for instance.

7-Eleven has featured Czech kolaches in select Texas markets (Texas has one of the country’s largest Czech-American populations) and Faygo Redpop Slurpeesin locations around Detroit, Michigan, where the brand is a regional favorite. “We want to bring our customers the local products they love and grew up with,” a representative said.

hyper regional

HIGH INDEXING FOODS


macro 4



alternatives everywhere

ALMOND

BUTTER+121% growthon menus over the past 4 years

CASHEW


PISTACHIO


Increasingly, today’s chefs and manufacturers aren’t just looking for a newflavor, they are looking to completely disrupt an entire category. Now evenubiquitous, foundational foods may be completely transformed usingalternative ingredients. Chefs across the country are experimenting with house-milled flours made from nuts, pulses, or alternative grains, while CPG companiesboth large and small introduce new varieties of milks or nut butters. Look foralternative meats (made with plant-based proteins), sweeteners (date sugars orrice syrups), and snack foods (kale chips, ancient grain popcorn) in the yearsahead.

Almost no category or ingredient is safe – just look at water, from the coconutwater trend of a few years ago to new variations made from maple sap, aloe,cactus, or birch showing up today. Manufacturers need to be on the offensive –will someone disrupt your category before you do?

Almond Flour

Chickpea Flour

Rice Flour

Buckwheat Flour

Spelt Flour

Coconut Flour

Soy Milk Rice Milk

Almond Milk Hemp Milk

Coconut Milk Oat Milk

ALTERNATIVE MILKS

ALTERNATIVE

FLOURS

ALTERNATIVE NUT BUTTERS


micro 2

micro 1



CHARRED

& BURNT

Six years ago we were focused on smoke, and now that trend has been left on the fire and been transformed into “charred”and “burnt.” Today these terms can be found on 7% of menus, up from only 2% in 2005, and you are seeing it used with almostany ingredient – corn, tomatoes, onion, cauliflower, meats, and even cocktail ingredients. You can start the day with(purposely) burnt toast and end the evening with a burnt marshmallow dessert. Not only do chefs have the equipment to charfoods, with the proliferation of wood-burning ovens and hearths, but consumers are also more open to the bitter flavors thatcharring and burning imparts. At ShopHouse, Chipotle’s growing Asian fast casual concept, customers can top their customizedbowl with charred corn flavored with garlic and sesame, while at King + Duke, in Atlanta, the hearth grilled cheese sandwich isserved with charred tomato soup.

CHARRED

& BURNT

The “New Savory” focused on adding a touch of savory to sweet dishes – some bacon on a donut, or salt in caramel. Now chefsare taking this to the extreme, completely transforming traditionally sweet dishes into savory-dominant versions. This trend isalso stretching beyond the dessert menu, where savory ice creams (in flavors like avocado and goat cheese) are trending, tothe breakfast menu – look for savory oatmeals that swap out the brown sugar and maple syrup for sriracha and poached eggs,to savory yogurts in flavors like tomato and sea salt at retail from brands like Blue Hill and Sohha. These savory ingredients canalso transition to the lunch or dinner menu, with a base of savory, house-ground oatmeal under a hearty pork belly or acharred vegetable dish served over a swipe of savory oatmeal.

THE NEW,

NEW SAVORY

“When I put this dessert on the menu, I did not expect people to like it

as much as they did,” pastry chef Michael

Holland said of his “Popeye” dessert,

which features elements like a spinach sponge

cake, olive oil buttercream, and fried

spinach.


micro 3

At Jockey Hollow, at the Vail Mansion in Morristown, N.J., there are four concepts under one roof – The Rathskeller beer hall, the Oyster and Wine Bar, the upscale Dining Room, and the Vail Bar. It’s all overseen by restaurateur and

developer Chris Cannon, chef Kevin Sippel, and pastry chef Erica Leahy.



JUXTAPOSED

CONCEPTS

Why limit yourself – and the customer? That’s what a number of chefs and developers acrossthe country are asking, opening brand new concepts that feature multiple restaurants underone roof, but with a central theme and ethos that tie it all together. These concepts may bedesigned to take a restaurant through every daypart, with a coffee bar and bakery counterfor the morning, a casual sandwich or pizza spot at lunch, and a fine dining restaurant andcocktail bar at night. Some concepts may also allow a chef to indulge multiple ideas andinfluences. A year ago Seattle chef John Sundstrom moved his restaurant, Lark, into a newbuilding, which now also features Bitter/Raw, a crudo, charcuterie, and cocktail bar; Slab, atakeout sandwich and pie counter that shares the Lark kitchen; and Off the Record, a privatedining space beneath Lark. With multiple concepts, operators can also entice a wider range ofcustomers, from those looking for a multi-course, fine dining experience to those who want amore casual meal or just a cocktail or beer. Operators throughout the industry can adapt thismodel to their own needs, whether it’s distinct restaurants in one space or sectioning arestaurant to appeal to different needs and demographics. When Chicago chef TonyMantuano revamped his fine dining Spiaggia last year, the remodeled restaurant included arelaxed lounge with a la carte dining options (including carbonara by the gram) and a new barthat ushers in a craft cocktail program, while Red Robin is dividing its restaurants into threeseparate sections – a main dining room for families, a bar area for adults, and a modernlounge for teens.

JUXTAPOSED CONCEPTS OFFER SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE

UNDER ONE ROOF, BUT WITH A CENTRAL PHILOSOPHY

Chicago chef Iliana Regan has become an expert at juxtaposing concepts under one roof; many have proven so successful that they have evolved into their own restaurants. She regularly holds weekend pop-ups at her fine dining restaurant, Elizabeth (top), where the lines around the block for her “doughnut and dumpling socials” (middle) were the inspiration for Bunny, her microbakery set to open next year, which will transform into WunderPop, a pop-up restaurant, each evening. The first iteration of WunderPop will feature ramen (bottom), which is the inspiration behind Regan’s next venture – a ramen shop next to Elizabeth.


micro 5

micro 4


The United Nations has declared 2016 the “International Year of Pulses,” bringing awareness to these legumes harvested fordry grain – lentils, beans, chickpeas, etc. “The International Year of Pulses 2016 aims to heighten public awareness of thenutritional benefits of pulses as part of sustainable food production aimed towards food security and nutrition,” theorganization announced. Pulses are also part of the trend toward functional foods – also known as “Healthy 3.0” – and canform the basis for a protein bowl or other energy-packed menu item, or even act as a potential meat substitute. Pulses likelentils and chickpeas have been growing steadily on menus in the past decade – chickpeas are up 290% on menus since 2005,while lentils are up 69%.

Food halls have become impossible to ignore. These “food courts for people who hate food courts” are a major influence in theindustry today, even inspiring on-site operators (hospitals, colleges, business) and retailers to take inspiration from the foodhall design and atmosphere. For operators and manufacturers, this trend doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be in a foodhall, but it does mean have to pay attention to them and how they are influencing menus and concepts, like food trucks did inthe past, while also understanding how food and retail can leverage each other. There are a dozens of new food hallsscheduled to open across the country in the next few years, including a number of food halls that focus on a single trend orcuisine, like Anthony Bourdain’s street food hall or the Nordic food hall planned for New York’s Grand Central Terminal.

Chicago’s Latinicity, from chefs Richard Sandoval and Jose Garces, has 12 food stalls, a full restaurant, a retail store, and a lounge with a full bar.

PULSES

FOOD

HALLS


10NEXT-LEVEL FLAVORSWhat’s the next wasabi? Or sriracha? Datassential’s MenuTrends crunches the numbers on the flavors andingredients that have been growing rapidly at innovative operators across the country. These are the next-generation flavors from around the world – Spain, France, Japan, the Middle East, Italy, Africa, and beyond. Ifcutting-edge flavors matter to you, keep this list handy in 2016.

1PADRON PEPPERSLike shishito peppers, every so often one of these peppers grown inNorthwestern Spain packs a punch of heat.

Roasted cauliflower with green apple, golden raisin, lovage, berberespice, and salmon caviar at Local Kitchen and Bar in Ferndale, MI.

Squash, radicchio with Treviso, bay leaf, and espelette at New York’s Rebelle.

Roast brussels sprouts and heirloom carrots, pear mostarda glaze, and bagna cauda at Vancouver’s Nicli’s Next Door.



PISTOUSometimes called “French pesto,” this mix of garlic, basil, and olive oil is a staplein Provencal French cooking.2ESPELETTEAlso called piment d’Espelette, these bright red peppers are produced in France’sBasque region and often found dried or powdered.3SUMACThe dark red berries of the Middle Eastern sumac bush are typically foundpowdered and sold as a spice – it has a tart, lemony flavor.4MOSTARDAAn Italian condiment in which fruits are candied and preserved with a bit ofmustard seeds, powder, or oil, often accompanying meats.5SORRELThis green leafy plant has a citrusy, tangy, lemony taste, and is often used insalads, egg dishes, or soups.6ROMESCOThis bright red sauce or dip made from roasted nuts and red peppers is a staplein the Catalan region of Spain.7TURMERICThis bright yellow spice which adds a vivid hue to any dish has been trending forits health properties – look for it in smoothies and juices.8SHISOAlso known as Japanese basil, this relative to mint is often served with sushi, butit can also be added to salads, soups, rice bowls, and stir fries.9BERBEREThis Ethiopian spice mix often includes chili peppers, fenugreek seeds, ginger,garlic, cinnamon, paprika, and more.10

FoodBytes

11

FoodBytes

TRENDSPOTTING REPORTSTOPICS COVERED IN LAST MONTH’S

NEVER MISS OUT ON A TREND! Contact Mike Kostyo at 312-219-6435 to subscribe to Datassential’s entire TrendSpotting Report series.

ON THE MENUIn our November issue of On The Menu we looked at flavors and dishes from around the globe, including the Italian flatbread piadina, the unusual German beer gose, and the health-driven Middle Eastern/Mediterranean hummus. We also stayed close to home and checked in on raisins, beer cheese, and the “bowl trend,” and covered the notable new menu items and LTOs at top chains, from Nashville hot chicken to spiked entrees.

INTERNATIONAL

CONCEPTS: ARGENTINAIn International Concepts, wetook you to Argentina, wheremeat is king. From barbecue totriple, quadruple, and evenquintuple burgers, see how beef ismenued across the country anddiscover Argentine spins oncoffee, ice cream, pastries, andmore. You’ll also discover what’son the menu at Starbucks, BurgerKing, and more in Argentina –mate lattes, anyone?

DINE AROUND:

CLEVELANDIn this issue of Dine Around, we traveled to Cleveland, an under-the-radar city that has been rising in the ranks of America’s best foodie destinations. Explore classic and elevated European flavors, trendy New American restaurants, and much more. You’ll also find consumer data on Cleveland favorites like corned beef, kielbasa, pizza bagels, pierogi, and perch.

CREATIVE CONCEPTS:

ASIAN FAST CASUALSIn Creative Concepts, we looked at the next generation of fast casuals featuring Asian cuisine, with concepts like build-your-own bowls, make-your-own sushi rolls, custom stir fries, Asian fusion (sushirritos, bacos), and more. According to our research, 40% of consumers have already visited an Asian-inspired fast casual, and 37% of consumers absolutely love the concept.

UPCOMING: In next month’s issue we’ll cover everything from nettles to biscuits.

UPCOMING: Next month we travel to downtown Los Angeles.

UPCOMING: In January we’re taking you to Peru.

UPCOMING: Next month we visit the newest vegan and vegetarian restaurants around the U.S.

FoodBytes



STAY IN-THE-KNOW ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH

REPORTS FROM

ON THE MENU analyzes flavor and ingredient trends from across the trend cycle, from consumer awareness and interest to menu examples that put trends into context. Plus, we gather and examine important LTOs and new menu items from chains across the country.

WORLD BITES brings you authentic dishes and ingredients from around the globe, each one packed with consumer survey data and U.S. menu examples – a must for product ideation, menu development, and marketing.

CREATIVE CONCEPTS makes it easy to understand how hot flavors, ingredients, and concepts fit into overall industry trends. Each month takes you across the country and into the establishments that are defining the industry.

DINE AROUND takes you on a TrendSpotting tour of a city or neighborhood, so you are always in-the-know on local food trends and how they fit into the overall food landscape, all combined with Datassential’s industry-leading market research tools, including MenuTrends and Firefly.

INTERNATIONAL CONCEPTS, our newest TrendSpotting Report, highlights chain activity around the world – these are the in-demand, up-and-coming flavors, concepts, and trends that are often adapted for the U.S. market.

To begin your TrendSpotting subscription, contact Datassential Publications

Manager Mike Kostyo at 312-219-6435 or [email protected].

Datassential’s TrendSpotting Reports combine the art of spotting food trends with the science of market research, so you are always up-to-date on the trends that matter to your business, from ideation to marketing to competitive analysis. And, by subscribing to the full TrendSpotting package, you’ll put it all into context by understanding the overall trend landscape, from sauces to spices, carriers to proteins, beverages to desserts.

datassential.com

:

SOMETHING FOR EVERY IDEATION

AND MARKETING NEED.


A MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS SAY

THEIR TASTES ARE SHAPED BY

THEIR RESTAURANT EXPERIENCES

What’s happening on the menu today can

be a leading indicator of tomorrow’s food

trends.

Datassential MenuTrends is the industry’s largestmenu data set with the longest historic trendrecord, plus the ability to search millions of dishesfrom over 100,000 menus. Because the database isdesigned to mirror the US restaurant census bysegment, region, and menu type, MenuTrends is theonly system that offers true projectable data. Allsegments and cuisine types are tracked extensively– from food trucks to fine dining.

MenuTrends INSIDER is also updated every monthwith Limited Time Offers (LTOs) and other newmenu activity, with product photos that bring thelistings to life. And with thousands of ready-to-usereports and simple trend detection tools, you canjump right into the database, identifying,measuring, and predicting the food and flavortrends that matter to your business.

Call us today to begin using the food industry’sauthoritative resource for flavor trends.

Call Jana Mann at 312-655-0595 or email [email protected].

2016 food trends 4 - menutrends, food - datassential€¦ · macro 3 foodbytes december 2015 green...

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