2016 general managers’ meeting 2016_gmm...september 13, 2016 2016 general managers’ meeting...

September 13, 2016

2016 General Managers’ Meeting

Meeting Agenda

8:00 am - 8:30 am Continental Breakfast 8:30 am - 8:45 am Welcome by Mr. Douglas K. Woods 8:45 am - 9:45 am Economic Outlook 9:45 am - 10:00 am BREXIT 10:00 am - 10:15 am Break 10:15 am - 11:00 am IoT of Manufacturing 11:00 am - 11:30 am IMTS 2016 and Beyond 11:30 am – 12:00 pm Open Forum 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm Reception & Luncheon

September 13, 2016


Welcome

Mr. Douglas K. Woods President

AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology

September 13, 2016


Economic Outlook

Jeremy Leonard Director of Industry Services

Oxford Economics

Global Economic Outlook: Sluggish growth amid multiple risks

[email protected]

Jeremy Leonard, Director of Industry Services

AMT General Managers’ Meeting – September 2016

Global outlook: Subpar growth in all regions

Momentum transferring to advanced economies

• World GDP growth slowing to 2.2% in 2016

• Service sector growth model coming to the fore

Oil and commodity prices bottoming out

• Consumer „sugar rush‟ peaking

• Inflation past its low point, to rise next year

Consumers rise to save the day?

• Employment & wages up in US, EU & China

• Business spending remains weak

Policy response both helps and hurts

• Boost from fiscal stimulus in EU, Japan & China

• Unintended responses to monetary policy

Industry consistently lags overall economy

Sluggish global trade is one culprit…

…and weak investment is another

Low oil prices a negative for industry

Global growth only modestly affected by Brexit…

0

1

2

3

4

5

World Japan Eurozone UK US Emergingmarkets

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Aug-16

World: OE growth forecasts for 2016% growth

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

…but quite a different long term story in UK

■Key:

■Policy direction:

■LIB – liberal

■MOD – moderate

■POP – populist

■Trade agreement:

■CUS – customs

union

■BIL – bilateral

accords

■FTA – free trade

agreement

■MFN – most

favoured nation Go to http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/brexit/executive-summary to download

a copy of the Executive Summary of our research programme

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/brexit/executive-summary



UK trades more with EU than vice versa

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Croatia

Slovenia

Estonia

Romania

Austria

Italy

Finland

Bulgaria

Greece

France

Sweden

Denmark

Poland

Germany

Portual

Spain

Hungary

Slovakia

Lithuania

Lavia

Czech

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Belgium

Cyprus

Malta

Ireland

UK exports to EU

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/ONS

Share of exports to the UK

% of GDP in 2014

„Sugar rush‟ of low oil prices beginning to fade…

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Consumer Confidence

Consumption % y/y

Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Euro area consumer confidence

% balance % y/y

…but robust employment growth takes the baton

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Agriculture

Industry

Construction

Retailing

Business services

Public Sector


Euro area employment Cont. growth % q/q

Slow improvement in Euro area investment

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Housing investment

Business investment

Source : Oxford Economics/Thomson Reuters

Euro area investment : contributions to growth% q/q

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Housing Investment

Business Investment

Source: Oxford Economics/Thomson Reuters

Euro area investment% y/y

A big miss for Q2 US GDP growth…

Questions to: [email protected]

Is momentum as solid as it looks for H2?

Principal component analysis approach

using 24 economic activity indicators

Employment remains generally upbeat…

Aug 2016

151,000

175,000

204,000

Taking a step back from the volatile monthly data, US labor market continues to mature:

break-even employment ~120,000 jobs/month & we foresee 150,000/month in next 12 months

…and tighter labor markets supporting wage growth

Currently wage growth steady at 2.6% y/y in July

Consumer side of the economy in good shape…

…while exports and investment struggle

Current investment weakness has many causes

Where are the “animal spirits”?

…a strong dollar (?)

…sluggish global growth

…tightening credit conditions

Unprecedented weakness in equipment investment

A permanent state of excess capacity?

Is China investment slowdown accelerating?

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Official industrial output

OE Bottom-up industrial output


China: Indicators of industrial activity% year-on-year


Government trying to compensate

Credit-fuelled growth getting less bang for buck

Cost of ownership favours automotive market…

…but sales are petering out

Fleet age signals exhaustion of pent-up demand

Orders plunge at Boeing & Airbus a concern…

…have airlines overestimated capacity needs?

Risks are tilted to the downside

Economic conditions suggest a Clinton victory…

…but the alternative holds many risks

2015 % share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020United States 17.5 0.3 -0.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 1.9

Eurozone 14.6 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7

UK 2.0 1.3 0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6

Eastern Europe 2.2 4.5 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2

Japan 7.5 -1.2 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 1.3 -0.4

China 21.6 6.1 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8

India 2.9 3.2 3.0 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.4

Russia 2.4 -3.0 -0.6 0.7 2.3 2.3 2.2

Brazil 2.4 -8.2 -5.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2

World 100.0 1.6 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9

(Annual percentage changes unless specified)

World: Industrial production forecasts

Global outlook for industrial production

Global Machine Tool Forecast Project

Project overview

The gold standard for 5-year market forecasts of global and national machine tool demand.

Underpinned by Oxford Economics‟ proven macro and sectoral economic models.

Seven subscribing machine-tool organisations around the world:

■ AMT (United States)

■ Cecimo (Europe)

● VDW (Germany)

● MTA (United Kingdom)

■ TMTBA (Taiwan)

■ IMTMA (India)

■ AMTIL (Australia)

Two 100-page reports per year, plus detailed data tables.

Our approach

The market for machine tools is global rather than country-specific

Machine tools demand depends on the global prospects for the industries that are customers for machine tools

The right modelling approach therefore identifies the trends and prospects for those global industries, and the market for machine tools which springs from that

The structure of the global machine tools market is derived from the following inputs:

■ The sum of machine tools consumption across twenty-three key economies

■ The distribution of machine tools sales across the top eight global MT-using industries

The result will be a picture of global demand for machine tools

Countries covered

Americas

Brazil Canada Mexico United States

Asia

China India Indonesia Japan

Malaysia South Korea Taiwan Thailand

Vietnam

Europe

Austria Czech Rep France Germany

Hungary Italy Poland Russia

Turkey Slovakia Spain Switzerland

United Kingdom

These 23 countries account for over 90% of global machine tool

demand (China+Germany+US+Japan = 65%).

Model overview

The MT model is driven by Oxford Economics’ suite of global

economic and sectoral models.

It links drivers of the MT market from the Oxford models to actual

data on MT consumption via econometric modelling and uses these

relationships to predict national MT consumption.

■ Key drivers are investment and output in MT-using sectors, which are

in turn a function of macroeconomic conditions.

■ MT intensity is important factor as well (particularly in emerging

markets)

■ Implicit improvements in MT productivity also taken on board

(important in developed markets)

US MT orders continue downward trend…

Global drivers suggest MT market downgrades

Questions and discussion

Jeremy Leonard

Director of Industry Services

[email protected]

+44 207 803 1429

mailto:[email protected]

September 13, 2016


BREXIT – A Comment and Open Discussion

James Selka CEO

The Manufacturing Technologies Association

BREXIT - does every cloud have a silver

lining?

James Selka

IMTS International General Managers’ Meeting

Tuesday 13 September 2016

Brexit & what happens next On 23rd June, the UK voted 52:48 to leave the

European Union (EU)

Regionally, there were majorities to remain in London

(60:40), Scotland (62:38) and Northern Ireland

(56:44)

A process of negotiations will only begin when

the UK triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty …

… until then, the UK remains a full member of

the EU …

… although we will not take up our rotation for

the presidency of the EU that was due in 2017

Confidence already slipping …

Source: Bank of England Agents‟ Report, August 2016

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

MTA Business Survey

Source: MTA Business Trends Survey

… but here is the silver lining

Source: Bank of England

23rd June

The Politics

The politics of Brexit are hugely complex

New PM

New Government Departments - Department for

Exiting the EU and Department for International

Trade

No agreement on a „model‟ for the UK post exit

• Norway –

• Switzerland + ?

• Canada +

The Negotiation

Negotiations will start formally only when Article

50 is triggered - New Year 2017?

The key objective for the MTA (supported by

74% of our members) is to secure access to the

single market for firms based in the UK

Shared objective for most of UK business

community

Trade in goods should be the simple part - most

contentious issue likely to be financial services

September 13, 2016


IoT of Manufacturing

Bryce Barnes SR. Manager Machine Builder and Robot Segment

IoT Vertical Solutions Group Cisco

Senior Manager Connected Machines and Robots- Bryce Barnes

Sept 2016

Manufacturing & the Internet of Things

Two Worlds Coming

Together

Two Worlds are Coming Together

Where are Machine Builders?

Manufacturing is Changing

Agenda

What can we do together?

Cisco Confidential

The Digital Revolution is a 4th Industrial

Revolution Digitizing Manufacturing to Capture the Value of the

Internet of Everything

18th Century

Steam

20th Century

Mass Production 70‟s

Robots

Today

Digitization + Smart

Automation

Technology

Progress

Smart

Devices

Digital Manufacturing Priority Investments

#1 Analytics | #2 Connectivity | #3 Automation | #4 Mobility Source: SCM World/Cisco “Smart Manufacturing & the Internet of Things 2015” survey of 418 Manufacturing Business Line Executives and

Plant Managers across 17 vertical industries.

IOT is Accelerating

Source: “The Motley Fool”

50% of all New Cellular

Connections in the first Quarter

of 2016 are M2M & Cars

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-bullish-on-data-for-big-industry-1466718971

64 Million Machines

of factory

machines

are not network

connected

Connected Machines Represent Huge Opportunity 92% of Machines are not connected

IHS 2014 Machines Survey, PWC 2015

IOT potential for the Machine industry is Enormous

Value Flexibility Outcomes Asset Utilization

Is 60% for best in class The average operations

Is way below this

Job Costing Consumables Automation

Visibility Process Optimization

Machine Optimization

As well as….

How does the machine Integrate?

Factory? Cell?

Upstream Downstream

Material Lifecycle Tooling

Continuously

What is Driving IOT for Machine Tools?

Manufacturers are pushing the limits and

driving new production models Quality

Predictable Costs

Loss Reduction

Unplanned outage reduction

The Barriers to IOT connected Machines are real

Fear Platform Business Model

Security

IT Policy

Control Policy

Risk

Craft vs. Automation

Manufacturers will resist 100 Different IOT platforms

In their factories

What is Preventing IOT adoption for Machine Tools?

Digital Machine is a New

Business Model

New Revenue that requires New

Thinking

Services and the way we have

always done it

Machine Builders Tend to be proprietary

Life Cycle Orchestration Management

Data Extraction

DIY

Two Worlds are coming Together

Agenda

Analytics is the Number one focus… But you need Data

#1 Analytics

#2

Connectivity

#3 Automation

#4

Mobility

Source: SCM World/Cisco “Smart Manufacturing & the Internet of Things 2015” survey of 400 Manufacturing Business Line Executives and Plant Managers across 17 vertical industries.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Wearable Devices

Additive Manufacturing/3D Printing

Social and Collaboration Technology

Collaborative Robotics

Plant Floor Video

RFID and Location Technology

Wireless Networks

Cloud Computing

Modern Plant Floor IT (PLM, MES)

Mobile Devices

Factory Automation

Connectivity Technologies

Big Data Analytics

Digital Trends in Manufacturing and Machines

• Most CNC machining is still operator driven…Craft driven

• Movement from Build at any cost to Efficiency is accelerating

• As a service strategies are evolving but not fast enough

• Mechanical & Process innovation are essential but not enough…

The Race To Cloud

Marketplace / Ecosystem

Factory IT

Business alignment

Security

Integration / Connectivity

Platform / Applications

Cloud Services

A New Way of Thinking

Supply Chain Already sees the Cloud Opportunity for Machines

Source: March 2015 UPS Survey of 77 Industrial Machine Manufacturers with $10-$50 million revenue. http://www.manufacturing.net/sites/manufacturing.net/files/newsletter-ads/Final_Industrial_Manufacturing_Whitepaper.pdf

Where are Machine Builders?

Agenda

How to converge on a common language for

Visualization and Integration

Challenges for Machine Builders

Machine

to

Digital Platform

Mechanical + Process

to

Mechanical + Process

Powered by Digital

Standards Platform Innovation

Connected Machine Journey: Where are we?

Platform

Improve

React

See

Connect

Maturity

Discrete Intelligence Continuous

Respond Focus Anticipate

Visualize Understand Target

“Local” Operation Global

How can I introduce new

products faster?

How do I achieve

sustainability?

How can I better manage my

global supply chain?

I need to achieve

real-time visibility

How do I improve

workforce productivity?

How can I

reduce downtime?

I need help capturing knowledge

for my transitioning workforce

How can

innovation drive profits?

I need to improve

product quality

Manufacturers are Grappling with…

Machine Builders respond with repeatable, scaled platforms…

Agenda

What can we do together?

One Language shared by all Machine Tools…

MACHINE TOOL COMMUNICATIONS Complete Data dictionary All Data Items are Time Stamped (UTC). Uses todays Internet standards (HTTP / XML) Common Language Implied Semantics Better Streaming Analytics More secure IOT protocol

Context Machine, Tooling, Process, State

FACTORY WIDE COMMUNICATIONS Unified Communications Framework High Level Flexible, generic data model Support for Binary, Hybrid, or Web Services Interoperability Service Oriented Platform Independence High Availability

Manufacturing Marketplace Place enabled by Cloud

Cloud-Centric Networking, Security, Policy

Core Cloud Services Analytics Building Blocks

Application Enablement Tools

Enterprise/Hybrid Services

Cisco Micro Services

Collaboration SP Video Analytics

Inter-Region Virtual

Private Backbone

Automated Private

VPN Connectivity

Network-optimized

Workload Placement

Managed Public + Private

Cloud

IoT Applications and Services

Third Party

Open

Source Tools

Security Network/Device Management IOE

Global SP Backbone

Dashboard

Basic Cloud

Resource

Monitoring

Network

Performance

Metrics

Deployment/

Management

Tools, PaaS

VNF Library Orchestration, Auto-

Scaling

Federated

Network &

Security

Policies

Compute Storage Database Virtual

Network

LB VPN Hadoop

Service

Chaining

Data Virtualization

Intercloud Fabric support

for heterogeneous

environments

Data

Ingest

App-Level Sovereignty, Privacy Policies

Cloud Services

Analytics

Security

Automation

Partnership

Scale

Outcomes

Orchestration

Analytics

Security

Automation

Scale

Orchestration

Cloud Services

Partnership

Outcomes

Common Data Model for Machine Cells Drives visibility, productivity, and lower cost

IoT Edge Node

Conveyance

CNC Automated

Material Handling

Supervisory Control

IoT Ready Machine

Cells

Robots

Sensors

Video

Digital Cell drives higher OEE, Quality, Efficiency Plug & Play Sensors and Peripherals Embedded compute simplifies data collection Secure Access, Remote Engineering One Integration point, not many

IoT Application Enablement

FAC & 3rd party

applications

IOT Cloud

Mobile Apps

Factory

Digital Machine Cell Integrated & Automated

Fully Automated Machine Cells

September 13, 2016


IMTS 2016 and Beyond

Peter Eelman Vice President

Exhibitions & Business Development AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology

I. WELCOME TO IMTS

II. CHICAGO CITY UPDATE

III. IMTS STATISTICS

IV. EVENTS @ IMTS

V. IMTS DISPLAY HIGHLIGHTS

VI. IMTS REGISTRATIONS

VII. IMTS 2018 OUTLOOK

VIII. CCIMT – A NEW EVENT FROM AMT

IX. QUESTIONS

Lucas Museum / East Building Update

McCormick Square Neighborhood

Choose Chicago Updates

Security Update

MAYOR EMANUEL ANNOUNCES THAT CHICAGO O'HARE PEAK TSA WAIT TIMES HAVE DECLINED BY MORE THAN 90 PERCENT SINCE MAY AS A

RESULT OF ADDITIONAL FEDERAL RESOURCES

Security lines at Chicago’s airports significantly improve during one of the busiest summer travel seasons on record

In the midst of one of the busiest travel summer seasons on record, Mayor Rahm Emanuel today announced that Chicago O’Hare International Airport's peak Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint wait times have improved by more than 90 percent. In the month of July, the average peak wait time at O'Hare was seven minutes as compared to 105 minutes in May. This reduction in checkpoint wait times is a result of the roundtable discussion in May between the Mayor, Senator Dick Durbin, federal officials, city officials, airlines and the TSA about ways to reduce wait times in a secure way at both O’Hare and Midway Airports.

"I want to thank our federal partners, especially TSA Administrator Peter Neffenger, for recognizing the impact Chicago's airports have on the national aviation system and providing additional resources to address the unacceptably long wait times last spring," said Mayor Emanuel. "These improved wait times, and the safety and security of travelers, must be maintained, which is why I urge Congress to continue to fully fund the TSA to ensure our airports have the staffing and resources required to operate safely and efficiently."

The significant reduction in TSA wait times at both of Chicago’s airports this summer is a direct result of Mayor Emanuel’s collaborative efforts with Administrator Neffenger, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson and other federal partners to secure additional screening officers and canine teams assigned to O’Hare and Midway. Beyond additional resources, weekly meetings between every agency involved were used to refine staffing schedules and identify necessary facility changes. Close sharing of flight schedules, staffing plans, and other data led to continued refinement over the last several months – with an emphasis on the safety and security of passengers – resulting in significantly improved performance.

Exhibitors

Sq. Ft.

1,226

1,178,084

1,358

1,215,980

2014 2016

Exhibitors

Sq. Ft.

153

41,600

356

90,550

2014 2016

SQUARE FEET

1,200,000 1,250,000 1,300,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,450,000

2002

2014

2016

1998

2000

1,277,563

1,282,914

1,365,846

1,372,751

1,415,848

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2016 2014 2012 2000 2002

2,325

2,035

1,909 1,907 1,853

AMT’s Emerging Technology Center

North Building, Booth N-70

OLLI – AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE

105,783 2016 – Sept 12

114,147 2014 Total

Exhibitors Sq. Footage

108,735

A NEW EVENT FROM AMT

September 13, 2016


Open Forum

Open discussion on common issues pressing on the manufacturing

technology industry, markets and technological advances.

September 13, 2016


Reception & Luncheon

Room W181c

2016 general managers’ meeting 2016_gmm...september 13, 2016 2016 general managers’ meeting...

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