2016 holiday shopping forecast

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Page 1: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

HOLIDAY 2016

Page 2: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

TABLE OF CONTENTSI. Holiday Forecast ....................................

II. Holiday Survey 1 .....................................

III. Thanksgiving Forecast .......................

IV. Holiday Survey 2 ....................................

V. Thanksgiving Weekend Results ...

VI. Cyber Monday ..........................................

VII. Holiday Survey 3 .....................................

pages 3–5

pages 6–12

pages 13–14

pages 15–20

pages 21–24

page 25

pages 26–34

Page 3: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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HISTORICAL HOLIDAY FORECASTHoliday sales for 2016 are expected to increase by 3.6%. This forecast number is above the 7-year average of 3.4% since the recovery began in 2009.

On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016. Growth rates are based on the most comparable data available. NRF holiday spending is defined as the months of November and December.

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2.1% 5.1%

6.8% 6.2%

3.2% 2.7% -4.6% 0.2%

5.2% 4.6% 2.6%

3.0% 4.1%

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Holiday Retail Sales (in millions) % Holiday Sales Change

HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES

2016

3.2% 3.6%

$416

,416

$437

,613

$467

,195

$496

,040

$512

,105

$525

,993

$501

,594

$502

,781

$528

,930

$553

,397

$567

,771

$613

,266

$585

,088

$632

,835

$655

,870

Page 4: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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HISTORICAL HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENTThis holiday season, retailers could add as many as 690,000 new seasonal positions. This number is in line with last year’s 675,300 new holiday positions.

On April 5, 2016, nonfarm employment was revised by BLS between March 2005-2015. NRF employment forecast excludes automobiles, gasoline and food services.

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744.58

483.35

547.08 585.82

679.98 684.43

660.27

688.38

263.82

368.76

563.02

636.57 660.3

764.75 697.5

675.3

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT (IN THOUSANDS)

640–

690

Page 5: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016.

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HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES BY SECTOR

Retail Sales by Sector2015 2014

HOLIDAY SALES(Nov/Dec, in

Millions)

ANNUAL SALES(in Millions)

% ANNUAL SALES FROM

HOLIDAY

HOLIDAY SALES(Nov/Dec, in

Millions)

ANNUAL SALES(in Millions)

% ANNUAL SALES FROM

HOLIDAY

Furniture and home furnishings stores 20,085 105,376 19.1% 19,104 99,687 19.2%

Electronics and appliance stores 23,324 104,511 22.3% 24,551 104,012 23.6%

Building mat. and garden equipment & supplies 53,933 332,561 16.2% 49,746 317,715 15.7%

Food and beverage stores 120,117 690,225 17.4% 118,388 669,902 17.7%

Health and personal care stores 56,100 312,751 17.9% 53,409 299,891 17.8%

Clothing stores 40,369 187,939 21.5% 40,566 183,007 22.2%

Shoe stores 6,738 33,753 20.0% 6,530 33,531 19.5%

Jewelry stores 8,293 30,288 27.4% 8,359 31,625 26.4%

Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 21,012 90,418 23.2% 19,893 85,375 23.3%

Discount dept. stores 24,424 106,344 23.0% 24,523 107,678 22.8%

Department stores incl. leased Dept 40,377 167,079 24.2% 41,241 170,421 24.2%

Warehouse clubs and superstores 84,305 440,142 19.2% 83,384 433,303 19.2%

Electronic shopping and mail-order retailers 97,453 432,742 22.5% 86,521 386,135 22.4%

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Page 6: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SPENDING BY CATEGORYFood and candy spending is estimated to reach just over $100, decorations will hover around $50 and spending on greeting cards and flowers will be in the $20-$27 range. This spending category is expected to reach a total of $207.07.

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$$5544..7755

$$2277..3344

$104.57

Historical Holiday Spending by Category 2004 – 2016

Candy and food

Decorations

Greeting cards and postage

Flowers andpotted plants

Page 7: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

Missing from this chart is “gift for others” with consumers spending an average of $26.65.

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HISTORICAL GIFT SPENDINGNearly everyone will purchase gifts for family, while 71% plan to purchase gifts for friends and a third will buy gifts for co-workers. When it comes to gifts, consumers are spending approximately $588.90.

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$$446600..6677

$76.83

$$2244..775

Gifts for family

Gifts for friends

Gifts for co-workers

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Historical Holiday Gift Spending 2004 - 2016

Page 8: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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HISTORICAL SPENDING ON NON-GIFT PURCHASES58% of consumers also plan to take advantage of holiday deals to make non-gift purchases, up 4.4% from last year. Total spending for this category has reached its second highest level ever at approximately $140.

$88.99

$84.73

$94.70

$97.26

$106.67

$101.37

$112.20

$137.17

$140.43

$134.77

$126.37

$133.74

$139.61

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Spending on Non-Gift Purchases

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Page 9: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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MOST SHOPPERS WON’T START UNTIL NOVEMBERSimilar to previous years, the majority of consumers won’t start shopping until November, with nearly two in 10 waiting until December. But 41% tackle their lists right away, beginning in October or earlier. Top reasons for shopping early include spreading out the budget and avoiding crowds.

Before September

September

October

November

First 2 weeks of December

Last 2 weeks of December

12.2% 6.5%

21.9%

41.4%

15.0%

3.0%

When Consumers Plan to Start Shopping

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Page 10: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

6611..00%%

5533..55%%

4400..00%%

3322..00%%

2233..22%%

2233..11%%

2200..66%%

1188..88%%

1177..11%%

66..66%%

Gift cards / gift certificates

Clothing or clothing accessories

Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games

Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories

Jewelry or precious metal accessories

Home décor or home-related furnishings

Personal care or beauty items

Sporting goods or leisure items

Home improvement items or tools

Other

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MORE CONSUMERS WANT GIFT CARDS THIS HOLIDAY SEASONWomen are more likely to wish for gift cards (69% vs 53%.) On the flip side, men love their gadgets: 41% want consumer electronics compared with only 24% of women.

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Page 11: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?Department stores and online sites will be the top places to shop this year. Online shopping is at its highest ever, up 6.8% from 2015. In a new addition to the survey this year, one in 10 consumers will shop at outlets.

5566..66%%

5566..55%%

5555..77%%

4444..55%%

3333..66%%

2266..99%%

2222..77%%

1177..33%%

1155..00%%

1133..55%%

1100..11%%

99..88%%

99..00%%

33..33%%

Department store

Online

Discount store

Grocery store/supermarket

Clothing or accessories store

Electronics store

Local/small business

Crafts or fabrics store

Drug store

Other specialty store

Outlet stores

Thrift stores/resale shops

Catalog

Other

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Page 12: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

GENEROUS HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS WILL BRING IN SHOPPERS

7733..33%%

6600..55%% 5599..22%%

4488..22%%4444..99%%

4411..11%%

3355..33%%

3300..22%%2288..33%%

Sales orprice discounts

Quality ofmerchandise

Selection ofmerchandise

Free shipping/shipping

promotions

HighestEver

Convenientlocation

Everydaylow prices

No hasslereturn policy

Easy websiteor mobile site

Helpful,knowledgable

customer service

Top Factors for Choosing a Retailer

HighestEver

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Page 13: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

HISTORICAL PLANNED SHOPPING FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND

62.0% 61.1%58.7% 59.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Percentage of Consumers that Might or Will Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend

137.4 million unique potential shoppers might or will shop over Thanksgiving weekend. Nearly eight in 10 Millennials are likely to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, which is significantly higher than adults 35+.

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Page 14: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

BREAKDOWN OF SHOPPING DAYS OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKEND

Thanksgiving Day, November 24

Saturday, November 26

Sunday, November 27

Breakdown of Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping

21.1%

46.7%

24.2%

Friday, November 25 (Black Friday) 74.0%

74% of consumers who plan to shop over Thanksgiving weekend will visit their favorite retailers on Black Friday. Nearly half plan to shop that Saturday, with 24% saying they’re shopping specifically for Small Business Saturday.

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Page 15: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

Types of Gifts Consumers Plan to Buy

Other (please specify) 4.6%

61.2%Clothing or clothing accessories

55.9%

43.6%

Gift cards/gift certificates

Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games

Toys 42.0%

Food/candy 31.2%

29.5%Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories

Personal care or beauty items 25.0%

Jewelry or precious metal accessories 21.4%

Home décor or home-related furnishings 20.6%

Plan to give cash 19.5%

Sporting goods or leisure items

Home improvement items or tools

Flowers/plants 8.6%

12.3%

17.4%

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TOP GIFTS CONSUMERS ARE PLANNING TO PURCHASE THIS YEAR61% of shoppers are planning to purchase clothing or clothing accessories as a gift, up from 60% last year. Gift cards, books/videos/video games, toys and food/candy remain some of the top gift choices to give during the holidays.

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Page 16: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

Speci�c Type of Gift Cards Consumers Plan to BuyRestaurant

Department storeVisa/MasterCard/American Express/Discover Gift Card

Coffee shopEntertainment (movies, music, etc.)

Electronics storeBookstore

Online merchantGrocery store/gasoline

Gas stationDiscount store

Home improvement storeSpecialty clothing store

Salon/spaSporting goods store

Craft storeHome décor/houseware store

Shoe storeCatalog

Office supply storeOther

35.2%33.0%

22.4%21.2%

17.4%16.0%

15.6%14.0%

11.5%9.5%9.2%

8.0%6.5%

5.8%5.4%

4.3%4.2%

3.0%2.7%

2.4%4.2%

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TOP GIFT CARDS CONSUMERS ARE PLANNING TO GIVE THIS SEASONTotal gift card spending is expected to reach $27.5 billion, up from last year’s $26 billion. Gift card purchasers will likely purchase an average of three gift cards, each worth $46.

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Page 17: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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TOP PAYMENT METHODS FOR THE HOLIDAYSAlmost 40% of consumers will purchase their holiday gifts by using a credit or debit card. Another 56% said they will use PayPal.

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% Using Credit or Debit Cards — Historical

18.8%

18%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8%

18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Credit Card Debit Card / Check Card

Page 18: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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ARE RETAILERS’ RETURN POLICIES FAIR?

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YesNo91.1%

8.9%

An overwhelming majority of consumers find return policies to be fair and 33% of consumers include gift receipts most of the time.

Last year, consumers only returned 4% of their gifts, on average, with two-thirds saying they didn’t return any of their gifts.

Page 19: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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TOP TOYS FOR BOYS1 LEGO 15.4%

2 Cars & Trucks 7.7%

3 Video Games 6.3%

4 Hot Wheels 5.6%

5 Star Wars 4.7%

6 Drone 3.0%

7 Pokemon 2.9%

8 PlayStation 4 2.7%

9 Xbox One 2.5%

10 Paw Patrol 2.4%

11 Nerf 2.3%

T12 Marvel Action Figures 2.2%

T12 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.2%

13 Action/Superhero Figures 2.0%

14 Remote Controlled Vehicle 1.9%

15 Transformers 1.6%

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Page 20: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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TOP TOYS FOR GIRLS1 Barbie 22.6%

2 Dolls 11.5%

3 Shopkins 4.9%

4 Hatchimals 4.1%

5 LEGO 3.4%

6 American Girl 3.3%

7 Disney Frozen 3.0%

8 Trolls 2.8%

9 Monster High 2.4%

10 My Little Pony 1.8%

11 Disney Princess 1.6%

12 Apparel/Accessories 1.4%

13 Video Games 1.1%

T14 DC Super Hero Girls 0.9%

T14 Dollhouse 0.9%

T14 Pokemon 0.9%

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Page 21: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

101.9million

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

Yes – In stores Yes – Online No

Number of Consumers Who Shopped/Planned to Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend

99.1million

103.1million

108.5million

93.9million

93.4million

2015 2016

154.4 million consumers shopped or planned to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, either online or in stores. Millennials were the most likely to shop over the holiday weekend.

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOPPERS

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Page 22: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

WHERE CONSUMERS SHOPPED IN-STORE

Department store

Discount store

Electronics store

Clothing or accessories store

Grocery store/supermarket

Local/small business

Drug store

Other Specialty store

Crafts or fabrics store

Outlet stores

Thrift stores/resale shops

Other

50.9%

34.2%

31.8%

28.4%

24.6%

11.9%

11.2%

10.2%

8.8%

7.9%

5.1%

6.2%

Type of Stores for In-Store Shoppers

Department, discount and electronics stores are the most popular for in-store shoppers, in line with last year.

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Page 23: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

$299.60

$289.19

$229.56

$214.13

2015 2016 2015 2016

Total Holiday Purchases(among weekend shoppers)

Total Gift Purchases(among weekend purchasers)

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TOTAL SPENDING OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKENDThe average holiday spending over the weekend reached $289, of which $214 was spent on gifts. Both figures are down slightly from last year, but still relatively on par.

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Page 24: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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CONSUMERS ARE SHOPPING DUE TO PROMOTIONS

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0% – None of my purchases were on sale

1% to 10%

11% to 25%

26% to 50%

51% to 75%

76% to 99%

100% – All of my purchases were on sale

7.0%5.3%

7.7%

16.2%

15.5%21.1%

36.2%

Percent of Purchases Driven Specifically by Promotions(among weekend purchasers)

Over one-third of shoppers said that all of their weekend purchases were driven specifically by sales. That’s up 11.4% from last year.

Page 25: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

2015 2016

# of Consumers Planning to Shop Online for Cyber Monday

121.3million

122.2million

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This year, 122.2 million plan to shop online for Cyber Monday, up slightly from last year.

CYBER MONDAY

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Page 26: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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Yes

Maybe

No

Percent Planning to Shop on Super Saturday

19.4%

46.5%

34.2%

156 MILLION CONSUMERS PLAN TO OR WILL SHOP ON SUPER SATURDAY For the first time ever, the survey asked consumers if they planned to shop on Super Saturday, December 17. Two-thirds might or will shop on Super Saturday.

Page 27: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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WHEN CONSUMERS THINK THEY’LL BUY THEIR LAST GIFT

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Earlier thanSunday,

December 18

Sunday,December 18

Monday,December 19

Tuesday, December 20

Wednesday,December 21

Thursday,December 22

Friday, December 23

Saturday,December 24

Sunday,December 25

After Sunday,December 25

When Consumers Will Buy Last Gift

38.8%

7.1%5.3%

8.5% 8.1%6.3%

12.2%

8.7%

0.5%

4.5%

Almost half plan to buy their last gift a full week before Christmas, but two in 10 plan to wait until the last minute.

Page 28: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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HOW MUCH SHOPPING HAS BEEN COMPLETED?

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Similar to previous years, come early December, only one in 10 have finished their holiday shopping. The majority still have half or more of their shopping left.

Not started yet (0%)

1% to 10%

11% to 25%

26% to 50%

51% to 75%

76% to 99%

100% – FINISHED

10.1% 15.1%

11.6%

12.6%

16.0%

17.2%

17.4%

Percentage of Shopping Completed

Page 29: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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REASONING FOR HAVING HALF OR LESS OF SHOPPING COMPLETED 72 percent of those who’ve completed half or less of their shopping are still in wait-mode. They say it’s because they’re still deciding what to buy or waiting for requests from loved ones.

I am still trying to figure out what to buy

I am still waiting for the best deals on holiday merchandise

Holiday shopping is a necessary evil,and I put it off for as long as possible

I'm waiting for a holiday/year-endbonus to fund my shopping plans

I have other priorities before December

I am a procrastinator

It helps me spread out my holiday shopping budget

I like the thrill of last-minute shopping

Other

I am waiting for family members/friends to let me know what they want as gifts

I am busy with other activities which delay/restrict the time I have to holiday shop

I like to shop for the holiday season during the holiday season

Why Shoppers Have Only Finished Half or Less of Their Holiday Shopping

44.7%

27.2%

27.1%

25.4%

22.5%

22.3%

20.2%

16.3%

9.5%

8.0%

7.0%

4.0%

Page 30: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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GIFTS ALREADY BOUGHT THIS SEASONMost popular gift purchases this season include clothing/accessories, toys and gift cards.

Types of Gifts Purchased So Far

2288..33%%

Clothing orclothing

accessories

Toys Gift cards/giftcertificates

Books, CDs,DVDs, videos

or video games

Consumerelectronics or

computer-related

accessories

Personal careor beauty

items

Food/candy

Home décor orhome-relatedfurnishings

Jewelry orprecious metal

accessories

Sporting goodsor leisure

items

Homeimprovementitems or tools

Flowers/plants

Other

50.3%

35.5% 34.1%

32.9%22.6%

20.7%

20.4%

18.9%

16.6%

12.9%

9.4%3.2% 9.9%

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Page 31: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

Gifts of Experience

I'm planning to give a"gift of experience"

I would love to receivea "gift of experience"

None of the above

22.8%

38.1%

47.5%

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Men are more likely than the general population to give a gift of experience, but less likely to want one. Women are the opposite: They’re more likely to want one, but less likely to give.

GIFTS OF EXPERIENCE

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Page 32: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

WHERE CONSUMERS PLAN TO DO REMAINDER OF SHOPPINGOver half plan to finish the rest of their holiday shopping online, which is a survey high. Millennials (62 percent) are significantly more likely than older generations to complete their shopping online.

Where Consumers Plan to Finish Holiday Shopping(only top responses shown)

Online

Department store

Discount store

Clothing or Accessories store

Electronics store

Local/Small business

Grocery store/supermarket

Outlet stores

52.3%

42.0%

27.2%

20.9%

18.0%

14.4%

12.9%

9.9%

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Page 33: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

Similar to last year, those who receive gift cards will likely wait for really good sales. Another two in 10 will use their cards as quickly as they get them.

RECEIVING GIFT CARDS

I'll watch for a really good sale or promotionto maximize the value of my gift card(s)

My gift cards generally end up at the bottom of adrawer, purse, or wallet – and I forget to spend them

I don't anticipate receiving anygift cards this holiday season

I'll use my gift cards as quickly as I receive them

I tend to "re-gift" my gift cards to someoneelse or try to sell them for cash

I'll save my gift cards for a rainy day or sometimewhen I feel the need to treat myself

Gift Card Use

40.7%

22.3%

18.6%

1.6%

0.6%

16.3%

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Page 34: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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Over two-thirds plan to shop after-Christmas sales, either online or in the stores, up slightly from last year. Millennials are the most likely to do so, with approximately eight in 10 planning on it.

AFTER-CHRISTMAS SALES

Percent Planning to Shop After-Christmas Sales

Yes – In store Yes – Online No

48.0%44.3%

32.5%

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Page 35: 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

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This SlideShare will be updated at the same time we release any new data.

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