2017 county and economic development regions population ......number of people moving in or due to a...

Program on Applied Demographics

Web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: [email protected]

2017 County and

Economic Development Regions Population Estimates

Analysis of the US Census Bureau Vintage 2017

Total County Population Estimates

Jan K. Vink

Program on Applied Demographics

Cornell University

http://pad.human.cornell.edu/

Introduction

On March 22th, 2018 the U.S. Census Bureau released the County total population estimates for April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017. This document highlights some of these estimates and results when aggregating into the Economic Development Regions. The change in population is split in change due to natural increase and due to net-migration. Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths, net-migration the result of people moving in- and out of a region.

The Census Bureau revises earlier estimates because of boundary changes, availability of more recent data and implementation of a changed methodology. It is therefore recommended not to use data from this release in combination with a previous release and to keep in mind that some of the estimates for the most recent years are model based and will be replaced with more data based estimates when that data becomes available.

This year changes have been made in the methodology to estimate Net International Migration and Net Domestic Migration.

Highlights:

- 6 economic regions lost population since the 2010 Census, 4 gained. 17 counties gained population over that period, 45 lost population.

- For many counties and almost all regions the estimated change in the last year was higher than the previous years. This is mainly due to a higher estimated net domestic migration (people moving between the area and elsewhere in the US). New York City is an exception to this trend. These estimates do not provide inside if this is because less people leave or more people arrive compared with previous years.

- The natural increase is decreasing in most areas.

This paper first examines estimated population change and the components of change for the Economic regions and then highlights some observations on the County level.

Appendix A shows percentage change on the County level on two maps and Appendix B has County level tables, which include rankings. Appendices C and D show more detail and trends for the State and the Economic Regions.

State and Economic Development Regions

Total population: Change since last Census and in most recent year

Table 1: Vintage 2017 Population Estimates and by Economic Region, change since 2010 Decennial Census and change in most recent year

Change between 2010 and 2017 Change between 2016 and 2017

Difference Difference

Census 2010

Estimate 2017 Count % Estimate

2016 Estimate

2017 Count %

New York State 19,378,110 19,849,399 471,289 2.4% 19,836,286 19,849,399 13,113 0.1%

Capital Region 1,079,201 1,088,994 9,793 0.9% 1,086,199 1,088,994 2,795 0.3%

Central New York 791,913 780,230 -11,683 -1.5% 782,622 780,230 -2,392 -0.3%

Finger Lakes 1,217,041 1,210,895 -6,146 -0.5% 1,211,735 1,210,895 -840 -0.1%

Long Island 2,833,066 2,862,467 29,401 1.0% 2,860,191 2,862,467 2,276 0.1%

Mid-Hudson 2,290,846 2,341,131 50,285 2.2% 2,333,984 2,341,131 7,147 0.3%

Mohawk Valley 500,138 488,221 -11,917 -2.4% 488,510 488,221 -289 -0.1%

New York City 8,174,959 8,622,698 447,739 5.5% 8,615,426 8,622,698 7,272 0.1%

North Country 433,188 424,898 -8,290 -1.9% 425,411 424,898 -513 -0.1%

Southern Tier 657,975 639,721 -18,254 -2.8% 642,785 639,721 -3,064 -0.5%

Western New York 1,399,783 1,390,144 -9,639 -0.7% 1,389,423 1,390,144 721 0.1%

Highlights:

• Late December 2017, the Census Bureau released State estimates which showed that New York State gained 13,113 residents between July 1st 2016 and July 1st 2017. This increase represents a growth of 0.07%. The population of the nation as a whole increased with 0.7% the last year.

• Since the most recent Census New York State gained 471,289 residents, a growth of 2.4%. This growth percentage is far behind the national growth of 5.5% since 2010, but ahead of most other states in the Northeast (only Massachusetts grew faster).

• Four Economic Regions gained population since April 1, 2010, New York City the most in number (447,739) and in percentage (5.5%). Six Economic Regions lost population since the latest Decennial Census; the Southern Tier lost the most in number (-18,254) and in percentage (-2.8%).

• Between 2016 and 2017, five Economic Regions gained population; New York City, Long Island, and Western New York grew less than 0.1% each. Capital Region and Mid-Hudson grew 0.3%. Five Economic Regions lost population, although the loss in the Mohawk Valley and Finger Lakes was less than 0.1%. The Southern Tier lost the most in number (-3,064) and percentage (-0.5%). Please keep in mind that numbers for the last year are most subject to revisions as newer data becomes available.

Total population: Annual change in population The charts underneath shows the annual percentage change in population according to the latest estimates.

Figure 1: Annual percentage population change (2010-2017)

Highlights:

• New York State’s grew around 0.6% in the beginning of this decade but this growth has slowed down to 0.1% for the past two years.

• The Mohawk Valley and the Southern Tier saw a decrease in the estimated population in all years. The Capital Region, Mid-Hudson and New York City saw an increase in all years.

• With the exception of New York City, all regions saw a higher change in the last year than in the two years preceding.

• New York City grew fastest since 2010, but the Capital Region and Mid-Hudson grew faster than New York City in just the last year.

• Appendix C and D adds data from the estimated population from 2000-2010. This enables to look at somewhat longer trends. The trends for this decade in Central New York, the Mohawk Valley, the North Country and the Southern Tier are different from trends from the previous decade. The decline in Western New York was also estimated during the previous decade.

Components of change Change in population can be split into two distinctive so-called components of change:

• Natural Increase, which is the difference between births and deaths, and

• Net Migration, which is the difference between number of people moving in and moving out of the area.

In some areas the natural increase (or decrease) is the main component in overall change, in other areas it is the Net Migration.

Table 2: Components of change by Economic Region (Totals from 2010-2017)

Change between 2010 and 2017

Difference Due to Natural Increase Due to Net-Migration

Census 2010 Estimate 2017 Count % Count Rate Count Rate

New York State 19,378,110 19,849,399 471,289 2.4% 625,484 3.2% -152,501 -0.8%

Capital Region 1,079,201 1,088,994 9,793 0.9% 7,346 0.7% 3,012 0.3%

Central New York 791,913 780,230 -11,683 -1.5% 10,261 1.3% -21,973 -2.8%

Finger Lakes 1,217,041 1,210,895 -6,146 -0.5% 14,631 1.2% -20,584 -1.7%

Long Island 2,833,066 2,862,467 29,401 1.0% 52,087 1.8% -21,969 -0.8%

Mid-Hudson 2,290,846 2,341,131 50,285 2.2% 66,052 2.9% -15,513 -0.7%

Mohawk Valley 500,138 488,221 -11,917 -2.4% -784 -0.2% -11,100 -2.2%

New York City 8,174,959 8,622,698 447,739 5.5% 462,671 5.7% -15,299 -0.2%

North Country 433,188 424,898 -8,290 -1.9% 10,701 2.5% -19,201 -4.4%

Southern Tier 657,975 639,721 -18,254 -2.8% 938 0.1% -19,285 -2.9%

Western New York 1,399,783 1,390,144 -9,639 -0.7% 1,581 0.1% -10,589 -0.8%

Figure 2: Percent change in population split by components of change: Natural Increase and Net Miigration

Highlights:

• In New York State overall Natural Increase added to the population, but Net Migration was negative. Added together lead to an overall increase in population.

• There is a lot of difference between the regions in how the overall change in population can be split among the components.

• Appendix C and D adds data from the estimated components of change from 2000-2010. This enables to look at longer term trends in these components for each of the regions.

Components of change: Natural Increase Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths in each period. Charts in Appendix C and D visualize trends in natural increase, births and deaths since 2000.

Figure 3: Trends in estimated Natural Increase by Economic Region (2010-2017)

Highlights:

• Natural Increase alone added 3.2% to the New York State’s population since April 2010.

• When comparing between Economic Regions, New York City saw the largest change due to natural increase. The population in the Mohawk Valley declined slightly because the number of deaths exceeded the number of births.

• There are a few years where 1 or 2 regions saw a natural decrease – more deaths than births

• New York State’s natural increase at the end of the period was smaller than at the beginning of the period. The same can be said for most of the regions.

• The charts in Appendix C and D show that in most regions the decline in natural increase is mostly due to a decrease in births, some regions also start to see a slow increase in the mortality.

Components of change: Net Migration Net Migration is the difference between the number of people moving into an area and the number of people moving out. The people either move between the area and another place in the United States (Domestic Migration) or another place abroad (International Migration).

Relative small difference in one of the flows in or out of an area is magnified when we look at the net numbers, because of the net being close to zero. This makes it hard to extract trends out of the net numbers.

Even if there seems to be a trend in the net migration, it is impossible to know if this is due to a change in the number of people moving in or due to a change in the number of people moving out.

Figure 4: Trends in estimated Net Migration by Economic Region (2010-2017)

Highlights:

• At the State level the number of people moving out since 2010 exceeds the number of people moving in with 152,501 resulting in a negative change of -0.8% of the population.

• The North Country lost relative most people due to migration (-4.4%). The Southern Tier, Central New York and the Mohawk Valley also lost more than 2% due to more people moving out than moving in.

• The estimates for the last year of net migration was higher than the previous 2 years for all regions except New York City. The estimates don’t tell us if this is because more people are arriving or less people leaving, but general trends are that more people stay in their home.1

1 See: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/mover-rates.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/mover-rates.html

Net Domestic Migration and Net International Migration

Net domestic migration is the difference between the size of the group of people moving into an area from elsewhere in the United States and the size of the group leaving the area to elsewhere in the United States. Net International Migration is defined similar with flows between the area and origins and destinations outside the US. Somebody that moves to the area from abroad and subsequently moves to elsewhere in the US is counted positively in the Net International Migration and negatively in the Net Domestic Migration.

Table 3: Estimated Net Domestic and International Migration since 2010 by Economic Region

Net migration between 2010 and 2017

Total net migration Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration

Census 2010 Count % Count Rate Count Rate

New York State 19,378,110 -152,501 -0.8% -1,022,071 -5.3% 869,570 4.5%

Capital Region 1,079,201 3,012 0.3% -16,678 -1.5% 19,690 1.8%

Central New York 791,913 -21,973 -2.8% -37,149 -4.7% 15,176 1.9%

Finger Lakes 1,217,041 -20,584 -1.7% -43,886 -3.6% 23,302 1.9%

Long Island 2,833,066 -21,969 -0.8% -89,626 -3.2% 67,657 2.4%

Mid-Hudson 2,290,846 -15,513 -0.7% -79,380 -3.5% 63,867 2.8%

Mohawk Valley 500,138 -11,100 -2.2% -18,778 -3.8% 7,678 1.5%

New York City 8,174,959 -15,299 -0.2% -639,566 -7.8% 624,267 7.6%

North Country 433,188 -19,201 -4.4% -25,905 -6.0% 6,704 1.5%

Southern Tier 657,975 -19,285 -2.9% -32,119 -4.9% 12,834 2.0%

Western New York 1,399,783 -10,589 -0.8% -38,984 -2.8% 28,395 2.0%

Highlights:

• Since 2010 New York State gained 869,750 residents from more people moving in from abroad than moving out to destinations outside the US. Over the same period 1,022,071 more people moved out to another state than arrived from another state.

• All regions saw a negative net domestic migration with the biggest net losses in New York City.

• All regions saw a positive net international migration with the biggest net gains in New York City.

• Only in the Capital region gains from the net international migration exceeded the loss of net domestic migration.

• Appendix C and D shows charts with net migration trends since 2000 and split out by domestic migration and international migration. In most regions the net domestic migration shows a downwards trend in recent years.

• Appendix C and D show that most trend lines for international net-migration show a bit of a jump from 2010 to 2011. This is due to the availability of Census 2010 data and recent method changes.

Counties

Appendix A has two maps: a map of the percentage population growth since 2010 in each county and a map of last year’s differences. Appendix B has two tables: a table with the estimates, the change between 2010 and 2017 and between 2016 and 2017, the other table contains estimates of the total size of the components of change.

Highlights:

• 45 counties lost population between 2010 and 2017, 17 counties gained population. • Kings County [Brooklyn] was the county with the largest numeric increases since 2010. It added 144,065

residents. Bronx County was the fastest growing (6.2%). • Kings (5.8%), Queens (5.7%), and Rockland (5.5%) follow the Bronx as the relative fastest growing

counties. • Numerically the 4 of the top 5 growing counties since Census 2010 were all in New York City; Following

Kings are Queens (128,037), Bronx (86,366) and New York County [Manhattan] (78,543). • Hamilton was the county that relatively lost the most population (-7.4%), followed by Delaware (-6.2%),

Chenango (-5.2%), and Tioga (-4.8%). • Numerically Broome lost the most residents ( -7,050). Broome is followed by Chautauqua (-5,858) and

Niagara (-5,159). • The change in the last year should be handled with care as revisions might change the conclusions. One

can also not extrapolate trends from just one year of data. That said, the estimated change between 2016 and 2017 show a population loss in 37 counties. The biggest numeric gain in Nassau (3,657), the biggest numeric drop in Kings [Brooklyn] (-2,088). Saratoga showed the biggest percentage gain (1.0%), Hamilton had the biggest percentage drop (-1.8%).

• In 20 counties, the number of deaths between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2017 exceeded the number of births; they have a negative natural increase. Hamilton lost 4.0% of their population due to this negative natural increase.

• Jefferson and Kings [Brooklyn] gained 7.5% and 7.4% of their population because of their number of births exceeding the number of deaths.

• For 9 counties, it is estimated that there were more people moving in than moving out between 2010 and 2016. The relative largest surplus was in Saratoga (3.2%) and Ontario (1.8%).

• The relative largest negative net migrations were in Jefferson (-9.4%) and Tioga (-5.6%).

Appendix A: Maps

Map 1: Map of estimated % population change between April 2010 and July 2016

Map 2: Map of estimated % population change between July 2015 and July 2016

Appendix B: Vintage 2017 Population Estimates and components of change by County

Table 4: Population change by County

Estimates Change between 2010-2017 Change between 2016 and 2017

Census 2010 Estimate 2016 Estimate 2017 Count % Rank Count % Rank

New York 19,378,110 19,836,286 19,849,399 471,289 2.4% 13,113 0.1% Albany 304,196 309,080 309,612 5,416 1.8% 12 532 0.2% 13 Allegany 48,919 47,110 46,894 -2,025 -4.1% 56 -216 -0.5% 50 Bronx 1,384,794 1,468,976 1,471,160 86,366 6.2% 1 2,184 0.1% 17 Broome 200,689 194,830 193,639 -7,050 -3.5% 48 -1,191 -0.6% 55 Cattaraugus 80,343 77,761 77,348 -2,995 -3.7% 52 -413 -0.5% 51 Cayuga 80,003 77,757 77,603 -2,400 -3.0% 41 -154 -0.2% 35 Chautauqua 134,904 129,638 129,046 -5,858 -4.3% 57 -592 -0.5% 49 Chemung 88,841 86,040 85,557 -3,284 -3.7% 51 -483 -0.6% 52 Chenango 50,507 48,323 47,863 -2,644 -5.2% 60 -460 -1.0% 61 Clinton 82,131 80,973 80,980 -1,151 -1.4% 23 7 0.0% 25 Columbia 63,066 61,010 60,604 -2,462 -3.9% 53 -406 -0.7% 57 Cortland 49,285 47,934 47,786 -1,499 -3.0% 42 -148 -0.3% 41 Delaware 47,960 45,425 45,001 -2,959 -6.2% 61 -424 -0.9% 60 Dutchess 297,448 294,567 295,568 -1,880 -0.6% 21 1,001 0.3% 6 Erie 919,130 923,116 925,528 6,398 0.7% 14 2,412 0.3% 10 Essex 39,361 38,014 37,956 -1,405 -3.6% 50 -58 -0.2% 34 Franklin 51,606 51,139 51,116 -490 -0.9% 22 -23 -0.0% 28 Fulton 55,523 53,696 53,877 -1,646 -3.0% 39 181 0.3% 7 Genesee 59,944 58,163 57,956 -1,988 -3.3% 44 -207 -0.4% 43 Greene 49,218 47,516 47,470 -1,748 -3.6% 49 -46 -0.1% 32 Hamilton 4,843 4,566 4,485 -358 -7.4% 62 -81 -1.8% 62 Herkimer 64,463 62,479 62,240 -2,223 -3.4% 46 -239 -0.4% 46 Jefferson 116,232 114,084 114,187 -2,045 -1.8% 27 103 0.1% 20 Kings 2,504,706 2,650,859 2,648,771 144,065 5.8% 2 -2,088 -0.1% 30 Lewis 27,074 26,646 26,551 -523 -1.9% 30 -95 -0.4% 44 Livingston 65,214 64,202 63,799 -1,415 -2.2% 34 -403 -0.6% 56 Madison 73,452 71,389 70,965 -2,487 -3.4% 45 -424 -0.6% 54 Monroe 744,402 747,326 747,642 3,240 0.4% 16 316 0.0% 21 Montgomery 50,256 49,266 49,258 -998 -2.0% 31 -8 -0.0% 27 Nassau 1,339,866 1,365,857 1,369,514 29,648 2.2% 11 3,657 0.3% 9 New York 1,586,184 1,662,164 1,664,727 78,543 5.0% 5 2,563 0.2% 15 Niagara 216,487 211,798 211,328 -5,159 -2.4% 35 -470 -0.2% 36 Oneida 234,885 231,273 231,332 -3,553 -1.5% 24 59 0.0% 22 Onondaga 467,069 466,635 465,398 -1,671 -0.4% 20 -1,237 -0.3% 37 Ontario 108,085 109,586 109,899 1,814 1.7% 13 313 0.3% 8 Orange 372,827 379,915 382,226 9,399 2.5% 9 2,311 0.6% 3 Orleans 42,876 41,292 40,983 -1,893 -4.4% 58 -309 -0.7% 58 Oswego 122,104 118,907 118,478 -3,626 -3.0% 40 -429 -0.4% 45 Otsego 62,272 60,343 60,094 -2,178 -3.5% 47 -249 -0.4% 48 Putnam 99,648 99,107 99,323 -325 -0.3% 19 216 0.2% 12 Queens 2,230,545 2,356,044 2,358,582 128,037 5.7% 3 2,538 0.1% 19 Rensselaer 159,443 159,736 159,722 279 0.2% 17 -14 -0.0% 26 Richmond 468,730 477,383 479,458 10,728 2.3% 10 2,075 0.4% 4 Rockland 311,690 326,875 328,868 17,178 5.5% 4 1,993 0.6% 2 St. Lawrence 111,941 109,989 109,623 -2,318 -2.1% 32 -366 -0.3% 42 Saratoga 219,591 227,560 229,869 10,278 4.7% 6 2,309 1.0% 1 Schenectady 154,751 154,972 155,565 814 0.5% 15 593 0.4% 5 Schoharie 32,739 31,453 31,420 -1,319 -4.0% 55 -33 -0.1% 33 Schuyler 18,350 17,998 18,000 -350 -1.9% 29 2 0.0% 24 Seneca 35,244 34,781 34,498 -746 -2.1% 33 -283 -0.8% 59 Steuben 98,986 96,830 96,281 -2,705 -2.7% 38 -549 -0.6% 53 Suffolk 1,493,200 1,494,334 1,492,953 -247 -0.0% 18 -1,381 -0.1% 31 Sullivan 77,520 75,370 75,485 -2,035 -2.6% 37 115 0.2% 16 Tioga 51,048 48,778 48,578 -2,470 -4.8% 59 -200 -0.4% 47 Tompkins 101,594 104,561 104,802 3,208 3.2% 8 241 0.2% 11 Ulster 182,512 179,546 179,417 -3,095 -1.7% 26 -129 -0.1% 29 Warren 65,698 64,519 64,532 -1,166 -1.8% 28 13 0.0% 23 Washington 63,238 61,806 61,620 -1,618 -2.6% 36 -186 -0.3% 40 Wayne 93,751 90,924 90,670 -3,081 -3.3% 43 -254 -0.3% 39 Westchester 949,201 978,604 980,244 31,043 3.3% 7 1,640 0.2% 14 Wyoming 42,162 40,439 40,493 -1,669 -4.0% 54 54 0.1% 18 Yates 25,363 25,022 24,955 -408 -1.6% 25 -67 -0.3% 38

Table 5: Components of change by County (totals 2010-2017)

Change between 2010 and 2017 Difference Due to Natural Increase Due to Net migration

Census 2010 Estimate 2017 Count % Rank Count % Rank Count % Rank

New York 19,378,110 19,849,399 471,289 2.4% 625,484 3.2% -152,501 -0.8% Albany 304,196 309,612 5,416 1.8% 12 3,242 1.1% 21 2,325 0.8% 5 Allegany 48,919 46,894 -2,025 -4.1% 56 247 0.5% 34 -2,293 -4.7% 60 Bronx 1,384,794 1,471,160 86,366 6.2% 1 87,250 6.3% 4 -1,853 -0.1% 10 Broome 200,689 193,639 -7,050 -3.5% 48 -483 -0.2% 48 -6,615 -3.3% 41 Cattaraugus 80,343 77,348 -2,995 -3.7% 52 562 0.7% 29 -3,578 -4.5% 57 Cayuga 80,003 77,603 -2,400 -3.0% 41 120 0.1% 41 -2,516 -3.1% 40 Chautauqua 134,904 129,046 -5,858 -4.3% 57 -192 -0.1% 46 -5,690 -4.2% 53 Chemung 88,841 85,557 -3,284 -3.7% 51 344 0.4% 36 -3,627 -4.1% 52 Chenango 50,507 47,863 -2,644 -5.2% 60 -332 -0.7% 53 -2,316 -4.6% 59 Clinton 82,131 80,980 -1,151 -1.4% 23 529 0.6% 31 -1,683 -2.0% 28 Columbia 63,066 60,604 -2,462 -3.9% 53 -987 -1.6% 59 -1,446 -2.3% 33 Cortland 49,285 47,786 -1,499 -3.0% 42 241 0.5% 35 -1,740 -3.5% 46 Delaware 47,960 45,001 -2,959 -6.2% 61 -1,059 -2.2% 61 -1,887 -3.9% 51 Dutchess 297,448 295,568 -1,880 -0.6% 21 1,956 0.7% 30 -3,839 -1.3% 17 Erie 919,130 925,528 6,398 0.7% 14 2,369 0.3% 39 4,617 0.5% 9 Essex 39,361 37,956 -1,405 -3.6% 50 -589 -1.5% 58 -810 -2.1% 29 Franklin 51,606 51,116 -490 -0.9% 22 324 0.6% 32 -831 -1.6% 21 Fulton 55,523 53,877 -1,646 -3.0% 39 -486 -0.9% 55 -1,149 -2.1% 31 Genesee 59,944 57,956 -1,988 -3.3% 44 -171 -0.3% 49 -1,813 -3.0% 39 Greene 49,218 47,470 -1,748 -3.6% 49 -794 -1.6% 60 -939 -1.9% 26 Hamilton 4,843 4,485 -358 -7.4% 62 -194 -4.0% 62 -162 -3.3% 43 Herkimer 64,463 62,240 -2,223 -3.4% 46 -293 -0.5% 50 -1,918 -3.0% 38 Jefferson 116,232 114,187 -2,045 -1.8% 27 8,669 7.5% 1 -10,901 -9.4% 62 Kings 2,504,706 2,648,771 144,065 5.8% 2 185,409 7.4% 2 -40,797 -1.6% 22 Lewis 27,074 26,551 -523 -1.9% 30 539 2.0% 10 -1,064 -3.9% 50 Livingston 65,214 63,799 -1,415 -2.2% 34 -4 -0.0% 43 -1,401 -2.1% 32 Madison 73,452 70,965 -2,487 -3.4% 45 376 0.5% 33 -2,874 -3.9% 49 Monroe 744,402 747,642 3,240 0.4% 16 12,994 1.7% 13 -9,641 -1.3% 18 Montgomery 50,256 49,258 -998 -2.0% 31 184 0.4% 37 -1,177 -2.3% 34 Nassau 1,339,866 1,369,514 29,648 2.2% 11 23,531 1.8% 12 6,741 0.5% 8 New York 1,586,184 1,664,727 78,543 5.0% 5 61,606 3.9% 7 17,213 1.1% 4 Niagara 216,487 211,328 -5,159 -2.4% 35 -1,405 -0.6% 52 -3,645 -1.7% 23 Oneida 234,885 231,332 -3,553 -1.5% 24 530 0.2% 40 -4,082 -1.7% 24 Onondaga 467,069 465,398 -1,671 -0.4% 20 7,969 1.7% 15 -9,638 -2.1% 30 Ontario 108,085 109,899 1,814 1.7% 13 -70 -0.1% 44 1,980 1.8% 2 Orange 372,827 382,226 9,399 2.5% 9 16,280 4.4% 6 -6,977 -1.9% 25 Orleans 42,876 40,983 -1,893 -4.4% 58 38 0.1% 42 -1,944 -4.5% 58 Oswego 122,104 118,478 -3,626 -3.0% 40 1,555 1.3% 19 -5,205 -4.3% 55 Otsego 62,272 60,094 -2,178 -3.5% 47 -549 -0.9% 56 -1,616 -2.6% 36 Putnam 99,648 99,323 -325 -0.3% 19 1,057 1.1% 22 -1,377 -1.4% 19 Queens 2,230,545 2,358,582 128,037 5.7% 3 115,142 5.2% 5 12,550 0.6% 7 Rensselaer 159,443 159,722 279 0.2% 17 1,122 0.7% 28 -761 -0.5% 11 Richmond 468,730 479,458 10,728 2.3% 10 13,264 2.8% 8 -2,412 -0.5% 12 Rockland 311,690 328,868 17,178 5.5% 4 20,449 6.6% 3 -3,306 -1.1% 15 St. Lawrence 111,941 109,623 -2,318 -2.1% 32 1,423 1.3% 20 -3,750 -3.3% 44 Saratoga 219,591 229,869 10,278 4.7% 6 3,363 1.5% 16 7,052 3.2% 1 Schenectady 154,751 155,565 814 0.5% 15 2,136 1.4% 18 -1,238 -0.8% 14 Schoharie 32,739 31,420 -1,319 -4.0% 55 -170 -0.5% 51 -1,158 -3.5% 47 Schuyler 18,350 18,000 -350 -1.9% 29 -125 -0.7% 54 -225 -1.2% 16 Seneca 35,244 34,498 -746 -2.1% 33 311 0.9% 25 -1,046 -3.0% 37 Steuben 98,986 96,281 -2,705 -2.7% 38 761 0.8% 26 -3,451 -3.5% 45 Suffolk 1,493,200 1,492,953 -247 -0.0% 18 28,556 1.9% 11 -28,710 -1.9% 27 Sullivan 77,520 75,485 -2,035 -2.6% 37 764 1.0% 24 -2,835 -3.7% 48 Tioga 51,048 48,578 -2,470 -4.8% 59 369 0.7% 27 -2,855 -5.6% 61 Tompkins 101,594 104,802 3,208 3.2% 8 1,463 1.4% 17 1,691 1.7% 3 Ulster 182,512 179,417 -3,095 -1.7% 26 -429 -0.2% 47 -2,619 -1.4% 20 Warren 65,698 64,532 -1,166 -1.8% 28 -688 -1.0% 57 -433 -0.7% 13 Washington 63,238 61,620 -1,618 -2.6% 36 -48 -0.1% 45 -1,548 -2.4% 35 Wayne 93,751 90,670 -3,081 -3.3% 43 983 1.0% 23 -4,085 -4.4% 56 Westchester 949,201 980,244 31,043 3.3% 7 25,975 2.7% 9 5,440 0.6% 6 Wyoming 42,162 40,493 -1,669 -4.0% 54 112 0.3% 38 -1,791 -4.2% 54 Yates 25,363 24,955 -408 -1.6% 25 438 1.7% 14 -843 -3.3% 42

Appendix C: New York State trends Population trends – New York State

Table 6: Population estimates and estimated components of change

Population Change Natural Increase Migration

Year July 1 Population Number Percentage Births Deaths Natural

Increase Domestic International Net-Migration

2000 19,001,780

2001 19,082,838 81,058 0.4% 256,446 157,292 99,154 -165,566 120,585 -44,981

2002 19,137,800 54,962 0.3% 251,987 158,630 93,357 -176,057 109,272 -66,785

2003 19,175,939 38,139 0.2% 252,301 156,009 96,292 -178,262 90,173 -88,089

2004 19,171,567 -4,372 -0.0% 252,899 154,749 98,150 -213,794 81,886 -131,908

2005 19,132,610 -38,957 -0.2% 247,192 152,918 94,274 -246,933 81,991 -164,942

2006 19,104,631 -27,979 -0.1% 245,932 146,725 99,207 -245,277 84,261 -161,016

2007 19,132,335 27,704 0.1% 253,150 149,018 104,132 -183,585 75,013 -108,572

2008 19,212,436 80,101 0.4% 252,435 148,375 104,060 -131,085 72,070 -59,015

2009 19,307,066 94,630 0.5% 247,469 154,409 93,060 -98,886 63,634 -35,252

2010 19,405,185 98,119 0.5% 242,092 158,228 83,864 -91,634 62,223 -29,411

2011 19,526,372 121,187 0.6% 243,111 149,748 93,363 -82,689 110,909 28,220

2012 19,625,409 99,037 0.5% 239,922 146,899 93,023 -106,645 112,960 6,315

2013 19,712,514 87,105 0.4% 239,872 152,560 87,312 -112,882 113,188 306

2014 19,773,580 61,066 0.3% 237,032 148,769 88,263 -145,416 118,272 -27,144

2015 19,819,347 45,767 0.2% 239,354 153,835 85,519 -168,627 128,633 -39,994

2016 19,836,286 16,939 0.1% 234,754 156,143 78,611 -192,976 131,213 -61,763

2017 19,849,399 13,113 0.1% 232,766 159,676 73,090 -190,508 130,411 -60,097

Figure 5: Estimated population trend

Census 200018,977,026

Census 201019,378,110

2017 Estimate19,849,399

18,400,000

18,600,000

18,800,000

19,000,000

19,200,000

19,400,000

19,600,000

19,800,000

20,000,000

Change in population and components of change – New York State

Figure 6: Change in population and components of change

Figure 7: Births, Deaths and Natural increase/decrease

Figure 8: Net migration broken out by domestic and international net-migration

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Domestic

International

Population trends – Capital Region





2000 1,031,167

2001 1,034,717 3,550 0.3% 11,411 9,870 1,541 -54 1,416 1,362

2002 1,041,253 6,536 0.6% 11,310 9,818 1,492 2,961 1,230 4,191

2003 1,050,251 8,998 0.9% 11,624 9,727 1,897 5,260 847 6,107

2004 1,057,329 7,078 0.7% 11,499 9,839 1,660 3,202 1,090 4,292

2005 1,062,603 5,274 0.5% 11,398 9,784 1,614 1,519 970 2,489

2006 1,068,969 6,366 0.6% 11,460 9,340 2,120 1,956 1,069 3,025

2007 1,071,935 2,966 0.3% 11,618 9,512 2,106 -1,190 897 -293

2008 1,075,212 3,277 0.3% 11,279 9,519 1,760 -684 888 204

2009 1,077,751 2,539 0.2% 11,252 9,774 1,478 -1,054 770 -284

2010 1,079,644 1,893 0.2% 10,889 9,871 1,018 -1,410 800 -610

2011 1,080,770 1,126 0.1% 11,061 9,843 1,218 -2,304 2,307 3

2012 1,083,003 2,233 0.2% 11,081 9,801 1,280 -1,504 2,595 1,091

2013 1,085,127 2,124 0.2% 11,142 9,852 1,290 -1,696 2,597 901

2014 1,085,726 599 0.1% 10,992 9,701 1,291 -3,358 2,764 -594

2015 1,085,987 261 0.0% 10,831 10,281 550 -3,206 2,989 -217

2016 1,086,199 212 0.0% 10,694 9,957 737 -3,517 3,000 -517

2017 1,088,994 2,795 0.3% 10,622 10,187 435 -517 2,901 2,384


Census 20001,029,822

Census 20101,079,201 2017 Estimate

1,088,994

1,000,000

1,010,000

1,020,000

1,030,000

1,040,000

1,050,000

1,060,000

1,070,000

1,080,000

1,090,000

1,100,000

Change in population and components of change – Capital Region




-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Domestic

International

Population trends – Central New York





2000 780,525

2001 780,913 388 0.0% 9,546 6,835 2,711 -4,644 1,145 -3,499

2002 782,533 1,620 0.2% 9,281 6,831 2,450 -3,051 1,006 -2,045

2003 785,961 3,428 0.4% 9,074 6,888 2,186 -838 783 -55

2004 787,061 1,100 0.1% 9,133 6,837 2,296 -3,344 775 -2,569

2005 785,455 -1,606 -0.2% 8,991 6,895 2,096 -5,885 727 -5,158

2006 785,662 207 0.0% 8,791 6,720 2,071 -4,041 801 -3,240

2007 786,462 800 0.1% 9,126 6,853 2,273 -3,619 695 -2,924

2008 788,932 2,470 0.3% 8,912 6,685 2,227 -1,819 694 -1,125

2009 790,387 1,455 0.2% 8,875 6,829 2,046 -2,694 579 -2,115

2010 792,320 1,933 0.2% 8,383 6,927 1,456 -1,637 571 -1,066

2011 791,832 -488 -0.1% 8,617 7,020 1,597 -3,856 1,755 -2,101

2012 790,088 -1,744 -0.2% 8,733 6,919 1,814 -5,485 1,890 -3,595

2013 790,985 897 0.1% 8,637 7,137 1,500 -2,575 2,011 -564

2014 789,267 -1,718 -0.2% 8,358 7,034 1,324 -5,251 2,188 -3,063

2015 786,463 -2,804 -0.4% 8,471 7,396 1,075 -6,218 2,311 -3,907

2016 782,622 -3,841 -0.5% 8,214 7,083 1,131 -7,319 2,339 -4,980

2017 780,230 -2,392 -0.3% 8,091 6,948 1,143 -5,873 2,325 -3,548


Census 2000780,747

Census 2010791,913

2017 Estimate780,230

774,000

776,000

778,000

780,000

782,000

784,000

786,000

788,000

790,000

792,000

794,000

Change in population and components of change – Central New York




-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Domestic

International

Population trends – Finger Lakes





2000 1,203,763

2001 1,206,361 2,598 0.2% 14,456 10,485 3,971 -4,840 1,958 -2,882

2002 1,208,697 2,336 0.2% 13,970 10,381 3,589 -4,635 1,767 -2,868

2003 1,210,497 1,800 0.1% 14,177 10,481 3,696 -5,032 1,429 -3,603

2004 1,210,882 385 0.0% 13,781 10,542 3,239 -5,924 1,294 -4,630

2005 1,208,443 -2,439 -0.2% 13,431 10,509 2,922 -8,397 1,261 -7,136

2006 1,208,185 -258 -0.0% 13,658 9,929 3,729 -7,295 1,429 -5,866

2007 1,209,954 1,769 0.1% 13,973 10,361 3,612 -4,919 1,247 -3,672

2008 1,212,848 2,894 0.2% 13,754 10,268 3,486 -3,829 1,247 -2,582

2009 1,215,395 2,547 0.2% 13,324 10,516 2,808 -3,475 1,062 -2,413

2010 1,217,621 2,226 0.2% 13,058 10,675 2,383 -3,410 1,047 -2,363

2011 1,219,350 1,729 0.1% 13,386 10,854 2,532 -3,626 2,881 -745

2012 1,219,559 209 0.0% 13,003 10,862 2,141 -4,878 2,992 -1,886

2013 1,219,576 17 0.0% 13,122 10,962 2,160 -5,150 3,017 -2,133

2014 1,217,642 -1,934 -0.2% 12,885 10,769 2,116 -7,305 3,244 -4,061

2015 1,214,744 -2,898 -0.2% 13,047 11,360 1,687 -8,055 3,467 -4,588

2016 1,211,735 -3,009 -0.2% 12,658 10,991 1,667 -8,235 3,559 -4,676

2017 1,210,895 -840 -0.1% 12,578 11,041 1,537 -5,915 3,541 -2,374


Census 20001,199,851

Census 20101,217,041

2017 Estimate1,210,895

1,185,000

1,190,000

1,195,000

1,200,000

1,205,000

1,210,000

1,215,000

1,220,000

1,225,000

Change in population and components of change – Finger Lakes




-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Domestic

International

Population trends – Long Island





2000 2,760,794

2001 2,779,574 18,780 0.7% 36,925 22,500 14,425 -8,843 8,726 -117

2002 2,796,317 16,743 0.6% 36,013 23,140 12,873 -8,887 7,933 -954

2003 2,810,610 14,293 0.5% 36,189 22,810 13,379 -10,633 6,537 -4,096

2004 2,816,179 5,569 0.2% 35,907 22,523 13,384 -18,826 5,764 -13,062

2005 2,810,005 -6,174 -0.2% 34,500 21,895 12,605 -30,052 5,876 -24,176

2006 2,800,531 -9,474 -0.3% 34,156 21,502 12,654 -33,742 5,946 -27,796

2007 2,797,303 -3,228 -0.1% 34,258 21,712 12,546 -26,453 5,259 -21,194

2008 2,805,347 8,044 0.3% 33,321 21,558 11,763 -14,462 4,952 -9,510

2009 2,819,294 13,947 0.5% 33,379 23,115 10,264 -6,466 4,320 -2,146

2010 2,836,592 17,298 0.6% 33,407 24,647 8,760 -1,433 4,122 2,689

2011 2,847,557 10,965 0.4% 30,769 22,481 8,288 -5,760 8,628 2,868

2012 2,851,403 3,846 0.1% 30,227 22,206 8,021 -12,997 8,833 -4,164

2013 2,857,517 6,114 0.2% 29,398 23,340 6,058 -8,651 8,858 207

2014 2,861,341 3,824 0.1% 29,786 22,225 7,561 -12,749 9,085 -3,664

2015 2,861,805 464 0.0% 30,071 22,958 7,113 -16,609 9,991 -6,618

2016 2,860,191 -1,614 -0.1% 30,073 23,488 6,585 -18,440 10,228 -8,212

2017 2,862,467 2,276 0.1% 29,689 23,998 5,691 -13,562 10,147 -3,415


Census 20002,754,004

Census 20102,833,066

2017 Estimate2,862,467

2,680,000

2,700,000

2,720,000

2,740,000

2,760,000

2,780,000

2,800,000

2,820,000

2,840,000

2,860,000

2,880,000

Change in population and components of change – Long Island




-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-40,000

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Domestic

International

Population trends – Mid-Hudson





2000 2,185,030

2001 2,204,214 19,184 0.9% 29,519 17,298 12,221 -4,240 10,080 5,840

2002 2,222,465 18,251 0.8% 29,130 17,379 11,751 -3,856 9,037 5,181

2003 2,236,884 14,419 0.6% 29,594 17,074 12,520 -6,897 7,193 296

2004 2,246,392 9,508 0.4% 29,829 17,154 12,675 -12,015 7,206 -4,809

2005 2,249,815 3,423 0.2% 28,815 16,532 12,283 -17,742 7,028 -10,714

2006 2,251,869 2,054 0.1% 28,715 16,068 12,647 -19,896 7,297 -12,599

2007 2,259,128 7,259 0.3% 29,134 16,545 12,589 -13,432 6,355 -7,077

2008 2,269,796 10,668 0.5% 28,897 16,483 12,414 -9,921 6,151 -3,770

2009 2,281,770 11,974 0.5% 28,037 17,354 10,683 -6,150 5,376 -774

2010 2,294,356 12,586 0.6% 27,348 17,881 9,467 -5,306 5,302 -4

2011 2,305,783 11,427 0.5% 26,705 16,925 9,780 -6,895 8,639 1,744

2012 2,310,288 4,505 0.2% 26,157 16,705 9,452 -13,395 8,352 -5,043

2013 2,319,436 9,148 0.4% 25,948 17,504 8,444 -7,359 8,176 817

2014 2,324,188 4,752 0.2% 25,952 16,821 9,131 -12,785 8,417 -4,368

2015 2,329,172 4,984 0.2% 26,842 17,258 9,584 -13,893 9,305 -4,588

2016 2,333,984 4,812 0.2% 26,507 17,856 8,651 -13,359 9,503 -3,856

2017 2,341,131 7,147 0.3% 26,305 18,383 7,922 -10,230 9,461 -769


Census 20002,179,186

Census 20102,290,846

2017 Estimate2,341,131

2,050,000

2,100,000

2,150,000

2,200,000

2,250,000

2,300,000

2,350,000

2,400,000

Change in population and components of change – Mid-Hudson




-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Domestic

International

Population trends – Mohawk Valley





2000 497,552

2001 496,615 -937 -0.2% 5,201 5,511 -310 -2,148 799 -1,349

2002 496,213 -402 -0.1% 5,225 5,557 -332 -1,517 675 -842

2003 497,452 1,239 0.2% 5,297 5,382 -85 5 511 516

2004 498,923 1,471 0.3% 5,299 5,489 -190 265 523 788

2005 498,983 60 0.0% 5,238 5,226 12 -1,318 470 -848

2006 499,003 20 0.0% 5,189 5,203 -14 -1,419 528 -891

2007 499,926 923 0.2% 5,433 5,064 369 -829 455 -374

2008 499,872 -54 -0.0% 5,302 5,170 132 -1,626 462 -1,164

2009 499,615 -257 -0.1% 5,184 5,265 -81 -1,539 384 -1,155

2010 499,981 366 0.1% 4,869 5,138 -269 -515 394 -121

2011 498,358 -1,623 -0.3% 5,235 5,234 1 -2,528 898 -1,630

2012 496,727 -1,631 -0.3% 5,229 5,139 90 -2,657 935 -1,722

2013 495,370 -1,357 -0.3% 5,242 5,465 -223 -2,137 1,018 -1,119

2014 493,067 -2,303 -0.5% 5,206 5,112 94 -3,527 1,113 -2,414

2015 490,250 -2,817 -0.6% 5,087 5,461 -374 -3,610 1,156 -2,454

2016 488,510 -1,740 -0.4% 4,986 5,182 -196 -2,728 1,192 -1,536

2017 488,221 -289 -0.1% 4,938 5,158 -220 -1,235 1,179 -56


Census 2000497,888

Census 2010500,138


482,000

484,000

486,000

488,000

490,000

492,000

494,000

496,000

498,000

500,000

502,000

Change in population and components of change – Mohawk Valley




-3,500

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Domestic

International

Population trends – New York City





2000 8,017,608

2001 8,059,813 42,205 0.5% 120,660 59,249 61,411 -127,011 93,547 -33,464

2002 8,072,000 12,187 0.2% 119,130 60,194 58,936 -146,799 85,543 -61,256

2003 8,068,073 -3,927 -0.0% 118,493 58,190 60,303 -151,725 72,261 -79,464

2004 8,043,366 -24,707 -0.3% 119,850 57,379 62,471 -163,547 62,566 -100,981

2005 8,013,368 -29,998 -0.4% 118,046 56,894 61,152 -170,291 63,806 -106,485

2006 7,993,906 -19,462 -0.2% 117,389 54,242 63,147 -164,370 64,748 -99,622

2007 8,013,775 19,869 0.2% 122,027 54,329 67,698 -122,149 58,385 -63,764

2008 8,068,195 54,420 0.7% 123,531 53,984 69,547 -88,618 55,749 -32,869

2009 8,131,574 63,379 0.8% 121,049 56,836 64,213 -69,841 49,597 -20,244

2010 8,193,703 62,129 0.8% 118,752 58,654 60,098 -70,233 48,204 -22,029

2011 8,292,688 98,985 1.2% 120,503 52,297 68,206 -49,652 80,299 30,647

2012 8,383,504 90,816 1.1% 118,510 50,817 67,693 -57,120 80,447 23,327

2013 8,458,642 75,138 0.9% 119,143 53,233 65,910 -71,782 81,109 9,327

2014 8,521,135 62,493 0.7% 117,033 52,430 64,603 -86,977 84,732 -2,245

2015 8,582,459 61,324 0.7% 117,796 53,409 64,387 -95,366 92,086 -3,280

2016 8,615,426 32,967 0.4% 115,481 56,660 58,821 -120,286 94,367 -25,919

2017 8,622,698 7,272 0.1% 114,605 59,004 55,601 -142,586 94,066 -48,520


Census 20008,009,185

Census 20108,174,959

2017 Estimate8,622,698

7,600,000

7,700,000

7,800,000

7,900,000

8,000,000

8,100,000

8,200,000

8,300,000

8,400,000

8,500,000

8,600,000

8,700,000

Change in population and components of change – New York City




-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Domestic

International

Population trends – North Country





2000 425,866

2001 425,320 -546 -0.1% 4,844 3,760 1,084 -3,083 187 -2,896

2002 425,080 -240 -0.1% 4,819 3,781 1,038 -2,321 -325 -2,646

2003 425,406 326 0.1% 4,794 3,720 1,074 -697 -1,315 -2,012

2004 425,506 100 0.0% 4,861 3,706 1,155 -3,202 808 -2,394

2005 429,769 4,263 1.0% 4,832 3,733 1,099 1,598 66 1,664

2006 430,742 973 0.2% 5,054 3,535 1,519 -2,372 461 -1,911

2007 432,411 1,669 0.4% 5,111 3,749 1,362 -1,101 18 -1,083

2008 432,231 -180 -0.0% 5,162 3,715 1,447 -3,134 217 -2,917

2009 432,561 330 0.1% 5,068 3,700 1,368 -2,222 85 -2,137

2010 433,444 883 0.2% 4,584 3,694 890 -1,704 314 -1,390

2011 434,512 1,068 0.2% 5,367 3,686 1,681 -1,186 589 -597

2012 438,320 3,808 0.9% 5,416 3,792 1,624 509 1,645 2,154

2013 434,602 -3,718 -0.8% 5,492 3,782 1,710 -6,520 983 -5,537

2014 433,531 -1,071 -0.2% 5,232 3,603 1,629 -3,560 847 -2,713

2015 428,481 -5,050 -1.2% 5,209 3,761 1,448 -7,714 1,119 -6,595

2016 425,411 -3,070 -0.7% 5,072 3,822 1,250 -5,074 751 -4,323

2017 424,898 -513 -0.1% 4,895 3,965 930 -1,987 552 -1,435


Census 2000425,845

Census 2010433,188


415,000

420,000

425,000

430,000

435,000

440,000

Change in population and components of change – North Country




-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Domestic

International

Population trends – Southern Tier





2000 657,076

2001 658,089 1,013 0.2% 7,168 6,456 712 -1,987 1,237 -750

2002 659,903 1,814 0.3% 6,975 6,288 687 -1,114 1,110 -4

2003 659,800 -103 -0.0% 6,916 6,441 475 -2,668 949 -1,719

2004 659,510 -290 -0.0% 6,946 6,306 640 -3,008 862 -2,146

2005 657,660 -1,850 -0.3% 6,792 6,357 435 -4,374 850 -3,524

2006 657,711 51 0.0% 6,578 6,073 505 -2,556 864 -1,692

2007 658,147 436 0.1% 7,070 6,301 769 -2,346 781 -1,565

2008 658,472 325 0.0% 7,021 6,410 611 -2,380 762 -1,618

2009 658,685 213 0.0% 6,465 6,357 108 -1,789 681 -1,108

2010 657,887 -798 -0.1% 6,191 6,196 -5 -3,118 687 -2,431

2011 656,611 -1,276 -0.2% 6,669 6,489 180 -3,070 1,596 -1,474

2012 655,866 -745 -0.1% 6,779 6,287 492 -2,924 1,695 -1,229

2013 654,405 -1,461 -0.2% 6,721 6,408 313 -3,414 1,647 -1,767

2014 651,447 -2,958 -0.5% 6,557 6,375 182 -4,996 1,805 -3,191

2015 647,190 -4,257 -0.7% 6,641 6,695 -54 -6,161 1,913 -4,248

2016 642,785 -4,405 -0.7% 6,184 6,410 -226 -6,105 1,921 -4,184

2017 639,721 -3,064 -0.5% 6,160 6,406 -246 -4,737 1,912 -2,825


Census 2000657,023

Census 2010657,975


625,000

630,000

635,000

640,000

645,000

650,000

655,000

660,000

665,000

Change in population and components of change – Southern Tier




-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

5,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,400

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Domestic

International

Population trends – Western New York





2000 1,442,399

2001 1,437,222 -5,177 -0.4% 16,716 15,328 1,388 -8,716 1,490 -7,226

2002 1,433,339 -3,883 -0.3% 16,134 15,261 873 -6,838 1,296 -5,542

2003 1,431,005 -2,334 -0.2% 16,143 15,296 847 -5,037 978 -4,059

2004 1,426,419 -4,586 -0.3% 15,794 14,974 820 -7,395 998 -6,397

2005 1,416,509 -9,910 -0.7% 15,149 15,093 56 -11,991 937 -11,054

2006 1,408,053 -8,456 -0.6% 14,942 14,113 829 -11,542 1,118 -10,424

2007 1,403,294 -4,759 -0.3% 15,400 14,592 808 -7,547 921 -6,626

2008 1,401,531 -1,763 -0.1% 15,256 14,583 673 -4,612 948 -3,664

2009 1,400,034 -1,497 -0.1% 14,836 14,663 173 -3,656 780 -2,876

2010 1,399,637 -397 -0.0% 14,611 14,545 66 -2,868 782 -2,086

2011 1,398,911 -726 -0.1% 14,799 14,919 -120 -3,812 3,317 -495

2012 1,396,651 -2,260 -0.2% 14,787 14,371 416 -6,194 3,576 -2,618

2013 1,396,854 203 0.0% 15,027 14,877 150 -3,598 3,772 174

2014 1,396,236 -618 -0.0% 15,031 14,699 332 -4,908 4,077 -831

2015 1,392,796 -3,440 -0.2% 15,359 15,256 103 -7,795 4,296 -3,499

2016 1,389,423 -3,373 -0.2% 14,885 14,694 191 -7,913 4,353 -3,560

2017 1,390,144 721 0.1% 14,883 14,586 297 -3,866 4,327 461


Census 20001,443,475

Census 20101,399,783

2017 Estimate1,390,144

1,360,000

1,370,000

1,380,000

1,390,000

1,400,000

1,410,000

1,420,000

1,430,000

1,440,000

1,450,000

Change in population and components of change – Western New York




-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

Growth

Decline

Natural Increase

Net-Migration

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

Decrease

Increase

Births

Deaths

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Domestic

International

Appendix E: Sources

Data Current Estimates data (Vintage 2016) https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/data-sets.html

Intercensal Estimates (population totals, 2000 – 2010) https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/intercensal-2000-2010-counties.html

Evaluation Estimates (components, 2000-2010) https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html

Methodology Vintage 2016 State and County Population Estimates Methodology

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2010-2017/2017-natstcopr-meth.pdf

More analyses, other publications, projections and additional trends can be found at our web site:


https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/data-sets.html

https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/intercensal-2000-2010-counties.html

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html




2017 county and economic development regions population ......number of people moving in or due to a...

Documents