2017 ghana energy summit
TRANSCRIPT
JUNE 13, 2017
POWER SUPPLY: LONG, MEDIUM AND SHORT TERM DEMANDS
By: ING. WILLIAM AMUNA, CEO
2017 GHANA ENERGY SUMMIT
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
GHANA’S POWER SYSTEM
CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION
DEMAND PROJECTION
SUB REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION
FUEL REQUIREMENTS
WAY FORWARD
RECOMMENDATIONS
GenerationBaseLoad:Hydro&Thermal
MakersVRA,TICo,Sunon Asogli,CENIT,Bui
Power, AKSA, Karpower & Ameri
TransmissionBulk System – High Voltage
MoversSystemOperator&TransmissionOwners
GRIDCo
DistributionLocalSystem
UsersECG,NEDCo,EPC,Bulk
Customers
GHANA’S POWER SYSTEM
CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - GENERATION
q Installed Generating Capacity 4205 MWq Embedded / Distributed Generation 47 MWq Some capacity is unavailable due to:
o Natural Gas supply challenges;o Limited liquid fuel stocks;o Relatively low hydrology at the hydro-power plants;o Generating unit outages for Maintenance; ando Generating unit outages due to fault
Voltage Levels : 69, 161, 225, 330 kV
Bulk Substations: 68 nos.
Transmission Network: approx. 5,200 km
Interconnection (WAPP):• Burkina Faso• Togo• Cote D’ivoire
• Transformer Capacity : 4600MVA
• Approx. 80% equipped with OPGW
CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - TRANSMISSION
CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - DISTRIBUTION
Distribution Companies : ECG , NEDCo and EPC
Energy Consumptionq ECG : 71%q NEDCo: 9%q EPC : 1%q Other Bulk Customers: 19%
ECG Network Statistics33kV : 19,995 km11kV : 20,469 km415V : 68,018 km
NEDCo Network StatisticsMedium Voltage : 12,582 kmLow Voltage : 16,490 km
NEDCo
ECG
SUB-REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION
9899
194
627
4935
128
214
2078
1695
182
263
10341
66
90
7376
28
122
1791
192
127
133
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
WAPP
Sogem****
Senegal
Nigeria
Niger
Mali
Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Benin/Togo|CEB
Available capacity Uavailable Capacity
Available Capacity of Total Installed Capacity for February 2017
Source: (WAPP 2017 )
SUB-REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION (2)
Supply and Demand Profile for February 2017
Source: WAPP Feb 2017 Report
160 42
3
4776
46 155
2123
1398
174
134
160 45
4
4447
153
296
2084
1308
224 444
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Soge
n**
Sene
gal
Nig
eria
Nig
er
Mal
i
Gha
na
Cot
e d'
Ivoi
re
Burk
ina
Faso
Beni
n/To
go|C
EB
Generation [MW] Peak Load
GHANA’S POWER DEMAND - TREND
11371325 1393
12741367 1423
15061664 1729
1943 1971 19332039
2153
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
q All time Peak Load – 2153MW Growth : - 10% p.a(March 17, 2017)
DEMAND PROJECTIONS – Short to Medium term
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Projected System Demand (MW) 2,646 3,128 3,462 3,712 3,828Total Supply Required (Demand +Reserve) 3,308 3,910 4,327 4,640 4,784
Total Dependable Hydro Capacity (MW) 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120
Total Dependable Thermal Capacity (MW) 2,362 2,462 2,462 2,462 2,462
Total Existing Renewables (MW) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5COMMITTED GENERATION PROJECTSKarpower Phase II 220 220 220 220 220CENPOWER 360 360 360 360 360Early Power 142 300 400 400 400GPGC 100 100 100 100 100VRA T3 0 120 120 120 120Amandi 0 190 190 190 190
Total Committed Generation (MW) 822 1290 1390 1390 1390
Expected Total Installed Generation (MW) 4,326.50 4,894.50 4,994.50 4,994.50 4,994.50
Surplus (MW) 1,019 985 668 355 211
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Projected SystemDemand (MW) 2,646 3,128 3,462 3,712 3,828Total Supply Required(Demand +Reserve) 3,308 3,910 4,327 4,640 4,784Total Dependable HydroCapacity (MW) 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120Total DependableThermal Capacity (MW) 2,362 2,462 2,462 2,462 2,462Total ExistingRenewables (MW) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Karpower Phase II 220 220 220 220 220CENPOWER 360 360 360 360 360Early Power 142 300 400 400 400GPGC 100 100 100 100 100VRA T3 0 120 120 120 120Amandi 0 190 190 190 190Total CommittedGeneration (MW) 822 1290 1390 1390 1390Expected Total InstalledGeneration (MW) 4,326.50 4,894.50 4,994.50 4,994.50 4,994.50
Surplus (MW) 1,019 985 668 355 211
COMMITTED GENERATION PROJECTS
DEMAND PROJECTIONS – Long Term
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Projected System Demand (MW) : 2023 -2030
system Demand System Demand + 10% Reserve MarginSystem Demand + 18% Reserve Margin system Demand + 25% Reserve
Fuel CostBased on the projected thermal generation of 9,937.48 GWh for 2017, anestimated US$952 Million will be required to purchase LCO, Natural Gas, HFOand diesel to run the thermal plants. About US$ 295 million will be required byVRA and about US$ 657 million will be required by the IPPs.
Source: Electricity Supply Plan 2017
TYPE OF FUEL COST (Million USD)VRA – LCO 147VRA – GAS 130VRA – DFO 18
TOTAL VRA FUEL COST 295IPP – GAS 181IPP – LCO 114IPP – HFO 357
IPP – DFO 5TOTAL IPP FUEL COST 657
TOTAL VRA & IPP COST 952
FUEL SUPPLY SECURITY
WAY FORWARD– MARKET REFORMS
Establish Electricity Market as per LI 1937 – GRIDCo is currently developing the Market RulesBenefitsq Provides transparent pricing signals for Market
Participants and investorsq Provides access to larger pool of available energy which
allows for increased competitive pricing, enhances system reliability
q Increases customer satisfaction q Consumers make greater effort to use existing and available
capacity more efficientlyq Rewards efficient and cost effective generation units
WAY FORWARD– RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION
¨ RE holds emphatic promise and certainty in achieving a more reliable and readily available electric power supply and delivery at affordable cost
¨ Abundant investment opportunities exist for renewable energy integration in the Ghana energy sector
¨ Efficient use of energy via conservation and demand response
WAY FORWARD
¨ Demand Side Management¤ Energy Efficiency Architecture¤ Fast track migration to LED lamps
¨ Regulation on Embedded / Distributed Generation¤ Scope¤ Capacity ¤ Voltage
¨ Integrated Resource and Resilience Planning (IRRP) Project¤ Initiative supported by USAID
¤ Development of an Integrated Power Sector Master Plan (IPSMP)
¨ Accelerate implementation of LI 1937 – Competitive electricity market implementation
¨ Provide alternate fuel paths to power plants in Tema¨ Develop LNG infrastructure¨ Encourage decentralization and diversification of
generation portfolio mix ¨ Develop identified Small Hydro Sites¨ Ensure sufficient transmission network availability¨ Fuel Diversity
RECOMMENDATIONS (1)
¨ Aggressively integrate grid-connected wind and solar PV energy into the electricity sector
¨ Provide incentives to spur private and public sector investment and ownership in Solar PV
¨ Leverage investments and efforts being made under the West African Power Pool to meet Ghana’s electricity needs
¨ Help develop and enforce WAPP-wide reliability standards and operating procedures to ensure regional power system reliability, transmission network resilience, secured and efficient cross border power transfers
RECOMMENDATIONS (2)
THANK YOU