2017 Water Projection

Ron AbramovichWater Supply Specialist

Snow SurveyBoise, Idaho

Oakley Canal Company MeetingFriday March 17, 2017

Oakley, Idaho

12/ 3 /2015

12/ 5 /2016

3/ 16 /2017

Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead

By Jonathan Belles Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT weather.com

Russia Could Have Huge Impact on U.S. Winter

A look at how snow in Siberia affects the U.S. and why it’s looking like the eastern and central United States will have a cold, snowy winter.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold

Analysis of Streamflow in Strong El Nino

Years (SE) like 2016

Analysis of Streamflow

for a year like 2017 that follows a Strong El Nino Year

Similar ENSO year 1974,79,95,96,99

SNOTEL October Precipitation

78 SNOTEL sites in Idaho

118 in Idaho Data Collection Office (DCO) monitoring area: Spokane to Pinedale to Jarbidge

February PrecipitationRecord High

Scale is >500%

This changed the water supply outlook for this year

February Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Change

March 1, 2017 Snowpack

Includes SNOTEL & Snow Courses

Monthly comprehensive

analysis done each month

March 1 Idaho Snow Index Summary

02468

10121416182022242628303234363840

77 63 81 68 87 03 91 90 92 61 01 88 66 94 67 05 95 14 10 73 09 13 07 85 11 64 76 12 80 79 00 69 15 78 96 75 98 02 99 08 62 89 16 93 83 04 70 71 17 65 06 86 74 82 97 84 72

Inch

es o

f Sno

w W

ater

March 1 Snow WaterApril 1 Snow Water

April 1 Median 18.5

March 1 Median 16.7

March Oakley Basin 3 Station Snow Index for Years 1961 - 2017Bostetter R.S., Howell Canyon, Magic Mountain

Similar ENSO year 1974, 79, 95, 96, 99Similar snow years 1983, 06, 86, 74, 82, 97

Basin or Region

Mar 1 to 14 Precipitation as

% of Monthly Total

Oct 1 to Mar 14 as % of

Annual Total

NORTHERN PANHANDLE 73 85SPOKANE 89 81

CLEARWATER 101 74SALMON 82 74WEISER 99 81

PAYETTE 105 89BOISE 97 103

BIG WOOD 61 114LITTLE WOOD 44 106

BIG LOST 41 103LITTLE LOST, BIRCH 28 76

MEDICINE LODGE, BEAVER, CAMAS 24 66HENRYS FORK, TETON 84 94

SNAKE BASIN ABOVE PALISADES 91 98WILLOW, BLACKFOOT, PORTNEUF 44 92

SNAKE BASIN ABOVE AMERICAN FALLS 76 95GOOSE CREEK 29 78SALMON FALLS 21 74

BRUNEAU 22 78OWYHEE 33 78

BEAR RIVER 48 93

Idaho SNOTEL Precipitation Summary Report as of Mar 14, 2017

March 1, 2017 SWEBadger Gulch highest 2006, 6th highest since 1947Boy Scout Camp highest since 1997, 5th highest since about 1960Logger Springs highest since 2004, 10th highest since 1961ViPont highest since 1997, 3rd highest since 1962 but 9 missing Mar 1 measurements

Water Supply Forecasts

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70

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1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

Skill

(r2 )

% o

f 19

81-2

010

Nor

mal

2017 Oakley Reservoir Inflow: Mar - Jul Volume, NRCS Monthly Forecasts are Squares Daily Guidance Forecast

Monthly Forecasts

2016 Streamflow % of Normal

Skill (r2)

SNOTEL Sites used: Bostetter RS, Howell Canyon and Magic Mountain.

Updated

March 13, 2017

2016 Mar - Jul Volume 93% of Normal 26 KAF

2017 -- based on irrigation demand of 50 KAF and Feb 28 reservoir storage of 22 KAF90% of average (31 KAF for Mar-Sep) runoff is needed for marginally adequate surface irrigation supply

Surplus above 60 KAF

Idaho Surface Water Supply Index Ag Shortage & Surplus Thresholds

Basin Ag Shortage Threshold Surplus Threshold

Big Wood 275 KAF 350 KAF with 1,500 cfs release from the dam.

Boise Basin 1,500 KAF 2,200 KAF with a flow > 6,000 cfs passing the Glenwood gage for morethan 5 days and approaching 25 days is considered the surplus threshold.

Little Wood 50-60 KAF 70 KAF was determined as the surplus volume based on thereservoir capacity of 30.0 KAF and potential to fill the reservoir.

Owyhee 575 KAF 950 KAF with a flow greater than 1,800 cfs for 8 or more days meets(updated value) the surplus threshold.

Oakley 50 KAF 60 KAF was determined as the surplus volume based primarilyon the reservoir capacity of 76.6 KAF and the ability to rent water when volumes are above 60 KAF.

Salmon Falls 110 KAF 180 KAF was determined as the surplus volume based primarilyon reservoir capacity of 182.65 KAF and potential to fill the reservoir.

Payette Shortages not common 1,400 KAF based primarily on 2015 total water supply.

Not completed: Snake at Heise, Teton, Big Lost, Little Lost, Bear

Surplus above 60 KAF

Shortages less than 50 KAF

Surplus above 60 KAF

Shortages less than 50 KAF

Similar ENSO year 1974, 79, 95, 96, 99Similar snow years 1983, 06, 86, 74, 82, 97Similar flow years 1986, 98, 06, 83, 99, 85, 97

Common years 1983, 86, 97, 99, 06

NRCS Partnership withIdaho Water Resource Board

Primary Goal:

GIS watershed analysis to assist in determining data collection needs, data voids and need for mid-elevation snow measuring stations with the hope to improve streamflow forecasts.

Agreement Signed.

Will work with IASCD to complete analysis.

Partnerships!

Announcement closed Jan 24, on holdStart Date Feb 21, on hold

Announcement closed Jan 24, on holdVacant - retired Dec 31

Idaho NRCS Snow Survey Staffing StatusMarch 2017

Questions, Comments,Discussions