2018 01 25 v8 eba december grayreports webinar › hubfs › 2017 december grayreport… · 2015...

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through December 2017

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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.

Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks

Employer Requirements




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. City and Program

2. Program of the Month: Computer Programming

3. Food for Thought and Summary




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


In 2017, student inquiries for higher education programs fell a total of 10.1%.

-10.1%





0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


December was slightly better than the average, year-over-year student inquiry volumes fell just 6.7%.

-6.7%





Conversion Maturity

It takes just over eight months for inquiries to fully “mature.”

§ 60% of conversions take place in the month in which the inquiry is received.

§ In this report, we consider a month mature after three months, when 87% of conversions have usually occurred.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Month 7 July

Month 8 August

Month 9 September

Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions

60%

78% 87% 90% 89%

95% 97% 99% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Percentage of Conversions

Months After Inquiry

Inquiries: Time to MaturityConversions of January 2017 Inquiries

Maturity




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 46%.

§ So far, Q4 2017 has beaten the baseline by just 4%, but it will continue to mature until March..

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+46





Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For September inquiries, total conversions are down 7% year-over-year.§ September is still below 2016 levels, but could close the gaps as the last conversions come in.

§ October is already up 4% year-over-year and November appears on track to beat last year.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-7% YoY

Immature Months1





Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.81 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.73

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

In December, the average price of an inquiry was $46.73.§ For 10 out of 12 months in 2017, the average price paid for an inquiry has been above 2016 levels.

§ In December, prices were up 2.7% year-over-year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

+2.7%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

1.00

0.91

0.60

0.60

0.46

0.41

0.34

0.31

0.30

0.29

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Medical/Clinical Assistant.

Business Administration and Management, …

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist.

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial …

Psychology, General.

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder.

Health Care Admin

HVAC Technician.

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller.

Web Page and Multimedia Resource Design.

10 Programs with the Highest Inquiry Spending(December 2017)

Medical/Clinical Assistant has the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to MaxSource: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

TradesOther




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

53%

12%

8%

2%

-1%

-8%

-10%

-17%

-27%

-31%

-45% -25% -5% 15% 35% 55% 75%

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder.

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist.

Health Care Admin.

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller.

Psychology, General.

HVAC

Web Page, Multimedia Design.

Medical/Clinical Assistant.

Business Administration and Management

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, …

December 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ The program with the largest budget, Medical Insurance Coding Specialist, increased 53% year-over-year.

In December, spending increased for 4 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.

% Change YoYSource: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




Agenda


1. National


3. City and Program






Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs crept up 2% year-over-year in December.§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes have grown in each of the past 3 months.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

+2%





Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeIn 2017, student demand for online programs rose a total of 4.8%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

+4.8%





02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs decreased 7% in September.§ This is down-month ends a streak of 13th consecutive months with an increase in conversions.

§ October is on track to surpass last year.

§ But, November and December are off to a poor start.

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1

-7% YoY





Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, student demand for on-ground programs slipped a total of 14%.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-14% YoY





Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have fallen every month in 2017.

§ In December, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 18% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-18% YoY





Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 34% year-over-year in September.§ This marks the 13th consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ August was only down 5% when compared to 2016 levels.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-34% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1





Agenda


1. National


3. City and Program






Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities shrank year-over-year.§ Philadelphia was down the most this month (-17%), after falling 8% YoY in November.

§ 4 cities performed worse this month than they did in November.

§ Houston was the exception, falling 8% this month compared to 11% in November.

-29%

-16%

-8%

-23%

-10% -8% -9%

-15% -15% -17%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In 2017, all of The Big 5 Cities declined at least 7%.

-20% -17%

-13% -9%

-7%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

Houston, TX Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in 2017 Inquiries

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




The Big 5 Programs: December Growth

In December, 4 of The Big 5 Programs fell year-over-year in December.

0%

-5%

-12%

-17%

-21% -25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Admin: Associate's

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




The Big 5 Programs: 2017 Growth

In 2017, all of the largest programs experienced at least a 17% decline overall.

-26% -25% -23%

-17% -17%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Business Admin: Associate's

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 20122016-2017 Year-over-Year Change in Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




107%

54% 43% 37% 32%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Human Services Medical Insurance Coding

Counseling Psychology

Health Sciences Christian Studies

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in 2017 Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

For all of 2017, the student inquiry volumes for Human Services doubled.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.





219%

73% 53% 43% 40%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Computer Programming

Liberal Arts and Sciences

Human Services Health Care Administration

Counseling Psychology

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 40% or more.§ Human Services and Counseling Psychology are both repeats from last month.

§ Health care and related programs continue to be a growth area.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.





Agenda


1. National


3. City and Program






All Professions: Job Postings

Burning Glass Technologies reported a total of 23.6 million job postings in 2017.

26,394 25,67323,552

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015 2016 2017

Job Postings

(000s)

Job PostingsAll Professions

(000s)

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. January 1, 2016-December 31, 2017SOCs: Computer Programmers (15-1131) was used in this analysis.




Computer Programmers: Job Postings

There were approximately 55,000 job postings for Computer Programmers.

57,92161,708 61,273

91,040

62,44955,511

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Job Postings

Job PostingsComputer Programmers





Computer Programmers: Salary

Salaries are typically over $75,000 for Computer Programmer-related jobs.

543

570

1,617

4,120

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $84,000.

§ The median salary is $83,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Computer Programmers: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, over 70% cite a Bachelor’s degree.

18%

6%

72%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education





Computer Programming: Employer Requirements

Designing Data Security Systems s a critical part of programmers' work.

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.81

0.71

0.71

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.63

0.63

0.63

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Design data processing systems

Design data security systems

Optimize software performance

Write computer programs or code

Design software applications

Apply user experience to application design

Design software or user interface

Assist users with software or hardware problems

Debug computer programs, software, or systems

Maintain complex computer databases

Maintain computer software or code

Solve software problems

Develop complex computer databases

Develop simple financial data repositories or databases

Develop simple informational data repositories or databases

Computer Programming: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Low Fit with Job HighSource: SkillEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Computer Programming, General (11.0201)




Computer Programming: Tools Employees Need to Know

There are over 100 tools a Computer Programmer may need to know.§ In total, 122 tools have a SkillsEngine score of 99.

§ The skills below are not the most important—they are just higher in the alphabet

999999999999999999999999999999999999

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

AdaAdobe Systems Adobe ActionScript

Adobe Systems Adobe FlashAdobe Systems Adobe Flex

Advanced business application programming ABAPAJAX

Apache CassandraApache Hadoop

Apache HTTP ServerApache Maven

Apache PigApache Solr

Apache StrutsApache Subversion SVN

Apache TomcatC

C#C++

Computer ProgrammingTools Employees Need to Know

Low Fit with Job High

Source: SkillEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Computer Programming, General (11.0201)




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Computer Programming has more inquiries than 98% of other programs; 44% are for online courses.




Program Scorecard: Competition

Competition for students is about average.




Competitors: Computer Programming

UoP leads the market, followed by public 2- and 4-year institutions offering Certificate, Associate’s and

Bachelor’s programs.

Campus Sector StateAward Level 2014 2015 2016

University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Bachelors 529 432 363University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Certificate 0 31 266University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Associates 390 292 150Diablo Valley College Public, 2-year CA Certificate 101 72 146Valencia College Public, 4-year or above FL Certificate 106 108 145Full Sail University Private for-profit, 4-year or above FL Bachelors 107 110 120Farmingdale State College Public, 4-year or above NY Bachelors 69 81 109St Petersburg College Public, 4-year or above FL Certificate 27 28 85College of San Mateo Public, 2-year CA Certificate 73 69 79Central Texas College Public, 2-year TX Associates 82 80 78Edmonds Community College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 12 40 77Austin Community College District Public, 2-year TX Certificate 12 39 63City College of San Francisco Public, 2-year CA Certificate 121 50 62University of Phoenix-California Private for-profit, 4-year or above CA Bachelors 33 68 61DePaul University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above IL Bachelors 42 64 61Mt San Antonio College Public, 2-year CA Certificate 71 62 61Valencia College Public, 4-year or above FL Associates 48 53 58Renton Technical College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 51 46 55Fayetteville Technical Community College Public, 2-year NC Certificate 26 48 54Seminole State College of Florida Public, 4-year or above FL Certificate 59 33 53




Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit

There is a large number of job postings, primarily for people with a Bachelor’s degree.




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. City and Program






The Gender Crisis

Women are close to 60% of completions at both the Associate’s and Bachelor’s level.

§ Over the next four years, 1.0 million more men than women will not graduate from college.

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trends: Percentage of Female Completions by Award-level2002-2016

Bachelor's Associate's

Source: NCES IPEDS Completions for Associate’s, Bachelor’s, Master’s and Doctoral-level programs from 2002 to 2016.




The Long Tail

Gray’s IPEDS data suggests that many colleges need to tune up their program portfolio.

§ 45% of undergraduate programs have 10 or fewer completions and produce just 7% of completions.




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ The 10% annual decline in total inquiries is slowing down a bit.

─ -3% in November

─ -7% in December

§ The improvement in conversions stopped in this period.

─ Q4 conversion rates are not mature, even so, they are well below recent results.

─ In the most recent mature month, conversions fell 7% YoY.

§ Online program growth slowed–almost to zero.

─ Inquiries for online programs grew only 2%.

─ For the first time in over a year, conversions fell.

§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.

─ Inquiries for on-ground fell18% in December.

─ September conversions plunged 34%.

§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition

─ New data added on employer needs, including work activities and tools




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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2018 01 25 v8 eba december grayreports webinar › hubfs › 2017 december grayreport… · 2015...

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