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Research & Forecast Report
ATLANTAQ4 2017 | Multifamily
Atlanta’s fundamentals remain strong as new supply reaches a peakKey Takeaways > Atlanta’s Employment Growth: 68,300 jobs added; 3.2% growth vs. national avg. 2.1%
> Annual Rent Growth: Atlanta, 3.0%; National, 2.6%
> Atlanta Ranks #2 in transaction volume with $6.5 billion in 2017
> Atlanta Beltline: 22-mile connectivity of rail, trail, parks and new development
> Amazon HQ2: Atlanta ranked among top 20 markets to host new Amazon’s $5B HQ2
The Atlanta apartment market continues to show solid market fundamentals and strong economic growth. The metro area is one of the fastest growing in the nation, with its live-work-play lifestyle and favorable business climate attracting young professionals, as well as national and international capital, while keeping rental demand strong. Atlanta’s robust economy continues to be driven by trade, transportation and professional and business services which outperformed other sectors adding 30,500 jobs in the 12 months ending in September 2017. Atlanta has added a total of 68,300 jobs in the same period, up 3.2% and well above the national average of 2.1%. Atlanta metro is home to 15-Fortune 500 companies, benefiting from an educated workforce, extensive infrastructure and business-friendly climate. Atlanta, with no plans of slowing down, has more than 70 projects under construction or planned, mostly located in top-tier submarkets inside the Perimeter and northern Atlanta suburbs. One of the most notable developments in recent years, is the redevelopment of the 22-mile Beltline railway- which is in the process of constructing housing, parks, efforts toward sustainability, transit, health and urban revitalization. The Atlanta Beltline, while creating economic growth inside the Perimeter, also serves in an
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89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
US ATLANTA Source: AXIOMetrics
Historical Apartment Rents & Occupancy
Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period
ATLQ4 2017
ATLQ1 2018*
VACANCY
RENTS
CONCESSIONS
TRANSACTIONS
PRICE PER UNIT
CAP RATES
*Projected
Occ
upan
cy %
Effec
tive
Mo
Rent
2 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued)
effort to tackle the affordable housing issue, which will continue to be a significant challenge in the future.
While there remains bifurcation between inner-perimeter submarkets and submarkets south of the city, the performance gap has narrowed, as elevated construction volumes limit increases inside the Perimeter and some lower tier submarkets have gained momentum. Lower-tier apartments have had a resurgence as investors seek better returns in areas near Downtown and Outside the Perimeter.
SUPPLY
Most new supply has remained concentrated inside the Perimeter and northern submarkets. Inventory has expanded at an average rate of 1.9% over the past three years, as annual completions range from roughly 7,700 units to 14,000 units. During 2017, a total of 13,980 units were added, growing inventory 2.9%. Among the major metropolitan cities, Atlanta ranks 6th in the total number of completions, behind New York, Houston, Dallas, Seattle and Nashville. Deliveries have been and should continue to be largely focused inside the Perimeter, primarily Midtown and Buckhead, but as costs continue to increase, new supply will slowly shift further south and outside the Perimeter.
DEMAND
The Atlanta apartment demand remains robust, as annual absorption has been between 8,200 and 12,400 units in 15 of the past 16 quarters. Most of the demand performances during the same period were in line with or above the five-year annual average of roughly 9,300 units. Demand over the past three years appears strongest among new supply and older, lower-tiered units. Atlanta boasts low costs of labor and land, great infrastructure and advanced manufacturing and distribution, as well as the presence of a young, educated workforce and lower cost of living. Being less expensive than other major metros, Atlanta is equipped to withstand future rent increases, as only lower-paid residents in need of affordable housing are affected by the current rent hikes.
RENT
Annual rent growth levels remain significantly above historical norms, registering between 4% to 7% over the past four years. However, performances have recently dropped out of that range as supply volumes have risen. Still, the 3.0% rent increase during 2017 placed well above the national average (2.6%). Class C product has seen improved momentum over the last three years as Class A has remained solid. Submarkets inside the Perimeter have experienced slightly slowed growth as construction remains
high. Northern suburbs, especially those near major employment hubs, continue to thrive and will likely dive future rent growth. As traffic congestion and long work commutes continues to worsen, rent growth near transit oriented development will become more relevant.
OCCUPANCY
Occupancy reported 94.0% in 4th quarter 2017, down 0.4 points year-over-year. Since the great recession, Atlanta has typically experienced strong demand exceeding new supply, therefore bolstering occupancy. However, occupancy across all product classes diminished in the beginning of 2017. Elevated new supply levels have weighed Class A occupancy in recent quarters, while Class C inventory has tightened. A similar trend was seen among submarkets, as areas with the least construction activity posted occupancy above most high-supply markets. Over the next year, new completions will continue to test the underlying strength in healthier submarkets located inside the Perimeter.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Transaction volumes in Atlanta remain among the highest in the country. The dollar volume of apartment deals totaled nearly $7.5 billion in 2017. Atlanta is second, behind New York in transaction volume. A total of 247 multifamily transactions took place in Atlanta over the past year, third most nationally, ranking it as the most active market regionally. The average cap rate reported 6.2% in 2017, down 10 basis-points year-over-year. Still, Atlanta remains affordable compared to other large, primary markets. The average price per unit in Atlanta was about $105,000, roughly $17,000 less than the South region average.
Metro Atlanta Population Overview
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Pop
ulation (m
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3 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
> Technology firm Featurespace has picked midtown Atlanta for its North American headquarters. The Cambridge, England-based firm, which leased 7,000 square feet at Midtown’s Bank of America Plaza, develops machine-learning software to help financial institutions spot fraud. Featurespace sells its software to banks and payment processors. Clients include Atlanta, Ga-based Worldpay and Columbus, Ga- based Total System Services Inc. Featurespace has 250 employees and is a world-leader in Adaptive Behavioural Analytics.
> Management and IT consulting firm CapTech is expanding in Atlanta – a year after opening its office in Midtown. The Richmond, Va-based company plans to double its workforce in Atlanta and add 50 jobs next year. As part of the expansion, CapTech has leased 6,000 square feet at Midtown’s Bank of America Plaza office tower.
> Atlanta made the shortlist of contenders for Amazon HQ2, including other regional competitors, Miami and Dallas. Atlanta is considered the favorite to land the 8 million square foot, $5 billion headquarters because it is a major population center with access to a globally connected airport. The city also has a burgeoning logistics and tech industry.
Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Multifam
ily Permits
Issued
Source: U.S. Census Bureau*as of December 2017
Metro Atlanta Employment Overview
‐22.9
30.1
69.6 66.149.0
‐27.1
‐136.1
‐20.9
35.6 42.660.0
89.178.7 85.7
123.6
‐150.0
‐100.0
‐50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
Jobs Add
ed/Lost (thou
sand
s)
Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics
Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison
METRO AREA RANK Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT
Y-O-Y PERCENT
UNEMPLOYMENTRATE
Dallas-Fort Worth 1 100,400 2.8% 3.2%
New York/NNJ 2 89,300 0.9% 4.3%
Boston 3 60,300 2.2% 3.0%
Atlanta 4 56,000 2.1% 4.2%
Miami 5 52,000 2.0% 4.1%
Los Angeles 6 50,700 0.8% 3.8%
DC-Arlington 7 48,900 1.5% 3.6%
Houston 8 48,500 1.6% 4.3%
Seattle 9 47,900 2.4% 4.1%
Riverside-CA 10 46,800 3.2% 4.1%
Phoenix 11 45,200 2.2% 3.7%
Minneapolis 12 41,600 2.1% 2.4%
U.S. Total 2,301,000 1.6% 4.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data November 2017(p) Average, not Seasonally Adjusted
Notable Atlanta Job Relocations
*as of December 2017
4 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates
UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market
Notable Sales Activity
PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (UNITS) PRICE / UNIT BUYER
The Local on 14th Midtown 11/17/2017 $86,500,000 360 $240,278 50 East 69th Street Corp.
Millworks Buckhead 11/21/2017 $80,000,000 345 $231,884 Continental Realty Corp.
The Office Apartments Downtown 1/02/2018 $78,100,000 327 $238,838 CF Real Estate Services
Sugarloaf Summit Northeast Atlanta 10/24/2017 $76,000,000 378 $201,058 Principal Global Investors
Station R Downtown 12/5/2017 $71,050,000 285 $249,298 Gaia Real Estate
Heights at Sugarloaf Northeast Atlanta 10/25/2017 $71,000,000 363 $215,152 Starlight Investments
The Reserve at Decatur Decatur 11/7/2017 $66,752,000 298 $224,000 The Praedium Group
Parc at Perimeter Central Perimeter 11/9/2017 $64,000,000 298 $214,765 Olen Commercial
The Palmer Northwest Atlanta 11/30/2017 $62,300,000 502 $124,104 McDowell Properties
The Park on Windy Hill Northwest Atlanta 11/15/2017 $61,000,000 654 $93,272 Wilkinson Corporation
Sales Volume AVG Cap Rate
ATLANTA MULTIFAMILY
Atlanta apartment investment volume ended the year a total of $7.5 billion in transaction volume. This 14% down from the previous year. The average price per unit increased to $105,068; up 3% year-over-year. The average cap rate for Atlanta apartment investment increased slightly from last year and now stands at 6.2%.
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5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
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8.0%
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Billions
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Source: CoStar Comps*allocated
Over 60 Multifamily Developments currently Proposed for the Urban
Atlanta Area.
5 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
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Snellville
Stone Mountain
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Conyers
Covington
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Jonesboro
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Austell
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Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport
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Marietta St NW
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Hunnicutt St NW
Mills St NW
Luck
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Tech Pkwy
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Bed
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Pied
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Juni
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Ponce De Leon Ave NE
Cha
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4th St NE
8th St NE
9th St NE
10th St NE
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Atla
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Hemphill Ave NW
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Campbellton Rd SW
11th St NE
12th St NE
Felto
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Bou
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North Ave NW
Pine St NW
26th St NW
28th St NW
Collier Rd NW
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Ottley Dr N
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Brighton Rd NE
Camden Rd NE
Peachtree St NEDeering Rd NW
Hascall Rd NW
Bishop St NW
Beverly Rd NE
Peachtree Cir NE
17th St NE
16th St NE
Mec
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Wal
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Flagler Ave NEM
onroe Dr NE
Rock Springs Rd NE
Wimbledon Rd NE
BarnesdaleWay NE
Inman Cir NE
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Dellwood D
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Peachtree ParkDr NE
Armour Dr NE
Plasters Ave NE
Mon
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Robin Hood Rd NE Fria
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Piedmon
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Westminster Dr NE
14th St NW
13th St NW
Mon
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Dur
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Linden Ave NE
Morgan St NE
Pine St NE
Angier Ave NE
Gle
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John St NW
Vena
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St N
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Golf View Rd NW
Bennett St
Maddox Dr NE
17th St NE
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GEORGIAINSTITUTE OFTECHNOLOGY
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
41
61
81
51
71
91
46
66
86
56
76
42
62
82
52
72
92
47
67
87
57
77
43
63
83
53
73
48
68
88
58
78
44
64
84
54
74
49
69
89
59
79
45
65
85
55
75
50
70
90
60
80
21
1
31
11
26
6
36
16
22
2
32
12
27
7
37
17
23
3
33
13
288
38
18
24
4
34
14
29
9
39
19
25
5
35
15
30
10
40
20
6 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
LEASE UP# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
1 Millworks Continental Realty Corporation 1888 Emery St NW Brookwood 345
2 Venue Brookwood Grayco Partners 2144 Peachtree Rd NW Brookwood 249
3 AMLI Buckhead AMLI Management Company 3450 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 400
4 AMLI 3464 AMLI Management Company 3464 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 240
5 Domain at Phipps Plaza Simon Property Group, Inc. 707 Park Ave NE Buckhead 319
6 Hanover Buckhead Village The Hanover Company 3116 Roswell Rd NW Buckhead 353
7 Hanover East Paces The Hanover Company 400 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 375
8 The Home at the Battery Atlanta Atlanta Braves 900 Battery Ave SE Cumberland 531
9 Stadium Walk Apartments Brand Properties 4501 Circle 75 Pky SE Cumberland/Galleria 200
10 Alta at Jonquil Wood Partners 1455 Spring St SE Cumberland/Galleria 265
11 The Byron Perennial Properties, Inc. 549 Peachtree St NE Downtown Atlanta 65
12 Trinity Walk Decatur Housing Authority 421 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 69
13 Square One George S. Morgan Development Co., Inc. 6050 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 203
14 IMT Sandy Springs IMT Capital 6558 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 230
15 Modera Sandy Springs Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 6125 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 82
16 The Cliftwood Net Lease Alliance LLC 185 Cliftwood Dr NE Downtown Sandy Springs 251
17 Glenwood at Grant Park Bluerock Real Estate, LLC 860 Glenwood Ave SE Grant Park 216
18 The George Urban Realty Partners 275 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 128
19 Overture Lindbergh Greystar Real Estate Partners 658 Lindbergh Way NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 190
20 Helios Apartments Catalyst Development Partners, LLC 2470 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 282
21 AMLI Arts Center AMLI Management Company 1240 W Peachtree St Midtown Atlanta 350
22 Azure on the Park Atlantic Realty Partners 1020 Piedmont Ave NE Midtown Atlanta 329
23 Post Midtown Millenium MAA 33 11th St Midtown Atlanta 332
24 Modera Midtown Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 95 8th St NW Midtown Atlanta 435
25 Atlantic House NGI Acquisitions, LLC 1163 W Peachtree St NW Midtown Atlanta 407
26 Yoo on The Park The Trillist Companies 207 13th St NE Midtown Atlanta 245
27 Piedmont House Wood Partners 205 12th St NE Midtown Atlanta 198
28 The Olmsted Chamblee Origin Investments 5193 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 283
29 Solis Parkview Phase I Spruce Street Partners 5070 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 303
30 Aster JLB Partners, LP 608 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 262
31 Anthem on Ashley North American Properties 720 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 244
32 Hanover at Perimeter Town Center
The Hanover Company 1110 Hammond Dr NE Perimeter Center 384
33 675 N Highland Origin Investments 675 N Highland Ave NE Poncey-Highland 125
34 841 Memorial Clark Ventures, LLC 841 Memorial Dr SE Reynoldstown 80
35 Station R Gaia Real Estate 144 Moreland Ave NE Reynoldstown 285
36 The Heights Chastain WSE Property Management LLC 225 Franklin Rd NE Sandy Springs 322
37 City View Vinings NALS Apartment Homes 3340 Cumberland Blvd SE Vinings 230
38 464 Bishop Paces Holdings, LLC 464 Bishop St NW West Midtown 232
39 Accent Waterworks Westplan Investors 1390 Northside Dr NW West Midtown 181
40 Westside Heights WSE Property Management LLC 903 Huff Rd NW West Midtown 283
Units 10,503
7 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
41 Apogee Buckhead Ackerman & Co. 3372 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 362
42 61 NW Irby Ave Alliance Residential Company 61 NW Irby Ave Buckhead 275
43 Camden Buckhead Camden Property Trust 3366 Roswell Rd Buckhead 365
44 Gables Buckhead Clarion Partners 530 E Paces Ferry Rd NE Buckhead 327
45 Modera Buckhead Mill Creek Residential Trust, LLC 3005 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 400
46 Alexan Buckhead Village Trammell Crow Residential Company 361 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 245
47 The Huntley Wood Partners 1000 Park Ave NE Buckhead 224
48 The Remington The Benoit Group 954 Hightower Rd NW Carey Park 160
49 Modera Vinings Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 3205 Cumberland Blvd Cumberland 269
50 Broadstone Ridge Alliance Residential Company 2020 Powers Ferry Rd SE Cumberland/Galleria 300
51 Revel Atlantic Realty Partners 2875 Crescent Pky Cumberland/Galleria 275
52 Stadium Walk Apartments Phase II
Brand Properties 4501 Circle 75 Pky SE Cumberland/Galleria 109
53 The District at Windy Hill Apartments
Kaplan Management Company, Inc 0 Interstate North Pky Cumberland/Galleria 284
54 1665 Scott Blvd Fuqua Development 1665 Scott Blvd Decatur/North Druid Hills 260
55 The Holbrook of Decatur Kartos Mary 1880 Clairmont Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 71
56 E.Co Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
2615-2661 E College Ave Decatur/North Druid Hills 375
57 Sam's Crossing South City Partners 2700 E College Ave Decatur/North Druid Hills 197
58 Solis in Decatur Terwilliger Pappas 1625 Church St Decatur/North Druid Hills 290
59 Post Centennial Park MAA 325 Centenial Olympic Park Dr NW Downtown Atlanta 438
60 120 Piedmont South City Partners 120 Piedmont Ave NE Downtown Atlanta 228
61 AMLI Decatur AMLI Management Company 120 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 325
62 The Adley MidCity Real Estate Partners 6075-6077 Roswell Rd Downtown Sandy Springs 291
63 Modera Sandy Springs Phase II Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 6125 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 260
64 Aston City Springs The City of Sandy Springs 6400 Blue Stone Rd Downtown Sandy Springs 294
65 Sterling at Candler Village Mwj Llc 2516 Mellville Ave East Lake Terrace 170
66 Lumen Atlantic Realty Partners 465 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 227
67 Edge C T Corporation System 75 Airline St SE Inman Park 350
68 The Kirkwood Avila Real Estate 1910 Bixby St Kirkwood 230
69 Accent 2050 John Hunsinger & Company 2050 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 198
70 Ascent Midtown Greystar Real Estate Partners 1400 W Peachtree St NW Midtown Atlanta 239
71 lilli Midtown JPX Works, LLC 693 Peachtree St Midtown Atlanta 147
72 195 Thirteenth Street Lennar 195 13th St NE Midtown Atlanta 308
73 1270 Spring Street Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1270 Spring St NW Midtown Atlanta 259
74 Alexan 880 Pope & Land Real Estate 880 W Peachtree St NW Midtown Atlanta 356
75 The Standard Selig Properties 708 Spring St NW Midtown Atlanta 257
76 Hanover West Peachtree The Hanover Company 1010 W Peachtree St NW Midtown Atlanta 350
77 Hanover Midtown The Loudermilk Companies 881 Peachtree St NE Midtown Atlanta 1744
78 ICON Midtown The Related Companies 14th St & W Peachtree St Midtown Atlanta 390
79 Accent Morningside Westplan Investors 1989 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Morningside-Lenox Park 239
80 Atlanta Chamblee Linda Hickman 5211 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 311
81 Mercey Housing at Mercy Park Mercy Housing, Inc. 5135 Peachtree Rd Norcross-DeKalb 79
82 Spoke Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
1471 La France St NE North Edgewood 224
83 Grant Park Apartments Fairfield Residential 290 Martin Luther King Jr Dr SE Oakland 321
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
8 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
84 North + Line SWH Partners 695 North Ave NE Old Fourth Ward 228
85 Palisades Apartments Atlanta Property Group 5901 Peachtree Dunwoody Rd NE Perimeter Center 424
86 Crescent Perimeter Crescent Communities, LLC 5755 Glenridge Dr NE Sandy Springs 320
87 The Alastair JEN Partners 6565 Glenridge Dr NE Sandy Springs 355
88 Emory Saint Joseph's Apartments
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC 1160 Johnson Ferry Rd NE Sandy Springs 285
89 Westside Alliance Residential Company 1084 Howell Mill Rd NW West Midtown 274
90 Broadstone Yards Alliance Residential Company 1084 Howell Mill Rd NW West Midtown 275
91 The Chlesea Westside Icon Residential 1339 NW Ellsworth Industrial Blvd West Midtown 92
92 Star Metal Residences The Allen Morris Company 1050 Howell Mill Rd NW West Midtown 409
Units 15,685
9 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Copyright © 2017 Colliers International.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
East Region Multifamily Advisory GroupColliers International | AtlantaPromenade | Suite 8001230 Peachtree Street, NEAtlanta, Georgia | USA+1 404 888 9000
FOR MORE INFORMATIONRon CameronSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 [email protected]
Will MathewsSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 [email protected]
CONTRIBUTORSScott AmosonDirector of Research | Atlanta
Jaime SlocumbTransaction Coordinator | East Region
Chevene King, IIIFinancial Analyst | East Region
Austin WeathingtonAssociate | East Region+1 404 978 [email protected]
Aaron MurrayAssociate | East Region+1 404 978 [email protected]
Atlanta Submarkets
Units sold since 2011
39,000MORE THAN
Group gross transactional value since 2011
$2.8B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
24COVERING OVER
STATES