2018 - mereda · 2018. 7. 10. · southern maine office forecast | nate stevens . mereda s 2018...
TRANSCRIPT
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Southern Maine
OFFICE FORECAST
2018
Nate Stevens Associate Broker
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THE MARKETOVERVIEW
12.1.2017 Total SF
12,096,48612.1.2016 Total SF
11,904,986 191,500 SINCE 2016
PORTLAND DOWNTOWN
4,335,200
MAINE MALL AREA
2,054,193
SUBURBAN PORTLAND
1,881,761
FALMOUTH, CUMBERLAND &
YARMOUTH
1,043,195
MEDICAL
1,276,792
SCARBOROUGH
878,826
WESTBROOK
626,519
SUBMARKET SIZE341
Buildings Surveyed
MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
THE MARKETBUILDINGS ADDED IN 2017 191,500 ± SF TOTAL
705 US Rte One, Yarmouth 35,000± SF
16 Middle Street, Portland42,000± SF
1 Tyler Drive, Yarmouth 94,500± SF expansion
97 Technology Park Dr, Portland20,000± SF
MAINE MEDIA COLLECTIVE
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
4.41%THE MARKETHIGHLIGHTS
• 363,486± SF positive net absorption
• Low supply continued
• Class A: Landlord market Class B: Tenant market
• Transaction volume decreased
• Large transactions shaped the market
• New construction took shape
Total Market Direct Vacancy for 2017 is 4.41%
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
THE MARKETVACANCY RATES Downtown vs Suburban
DOWNTOWN
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CLASS A
CLASS B
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SUBURBAN
CLASS A
CLASS B
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
TRANSACTIONSSIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS - DOWNTOWN
SUBLEASE - 12,761± SFOne Monument Square, PortlandCertify Drew Sigfridson, SIOR - CBRE | The Boulos CompanyJustin LaMontagne - NAI / The Dunham Group
LEASE - 90,000± SFHancock Street, PortlandWEX Thomas Moulton - NAI / The Dunham GroupCharlie Craig - NAI / The Dunham Group
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
TRANSACTIONSSIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS - SUBURBS/MEDICAL
134,349± SF SALE Maine HealthOne Riverfront Plaza, WestbrookCharlie Craig - NAI / The Dunham GroupJoe Malone/Jen Small - Malone Commercial Brokers
30,000± SF LEASE WEX75 Darling Avenue, South PortlandGreg Hastings - NAI / The Dunham GroupFrank O’Connor - NAI / The Dunham Group
19,435± SF LEASE Maine Health265 Western Avenue, South PortlandDrew Sigfridson, SIOR CBRE | The Boulos Company
24,000± SF LEASE Intermed50 Foden Road, South PortlandFrank O’Connor NAI / The Dunham Group
11,068± SF LEASE FedCap Rehab Services220 Maine Mall Road, South PortlandMike Anderson Malone Commercial Brokers
25,000± SF LEASE Clark Insurance1945 Congress Street, PortlandRoxane ColeRoxane Cole Commercial Real Estate
10,038± SF SALE NE Foot & Ankle (St. Mary’s)117 Auburn Street, PortlandKevin McQuinnLux Realty
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
TRANSACTIONSSIGNIFICANT OFFICE INVESTMENT SALES
82 Running Hill Road, South Portland120,000± SF $17,900,000Charles Day - CBRE | The Boulos CompanyTom Moulton - NAI / The Dunham Group
63 Marginal Way, Portland27,740± SF $5,400,000Charles Day - CBRE | The Boulos CompanyJoe Porta, SIOR - CBRE | The Boulos Company
280 Fore Street, Portland69,481± SF$21,500,000
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Vacancy Rate
‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13 ‘15 ‘17
279,000± SF
NEW CONSTRUCTION 172,500± SF
NEW CONSTRUCTION
198,000± SF
NEW CONSTRUCTION
198,000± SF
NEW CONSTRUCTION
LOW VACANCY = NEW CONSTRUCTIONNEW CONSTRUCTION
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
NEW CONSTRUCTIONUNDERWAY
0 Hancock Street Portland100,000± SF90,000 leased to WEXFall 2018
Widgery Wharf Portland18,000± SFTop floor leased to FL PutnamLate 2018
Ocean Gateway expansion Portland12,500± SFThree floors of office space added to garageSpring 2018
1945 Congress Street Portland40,300± SF in two buildingsClark Insurance & Diversified PartnersSpring 2018
170,800± SF
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
NEW CONSTRUCTIONPLANNED, PERMITTING, PRE-LEASING
Portland Foreside PortlandUp to 120,000± SF
Fisherman’s Wharf Portland45,000± SF
170 Fore Street Portland45,000± SF
One Union Wharf Portland14,815± SF
307,276± SF
Thompson’s Point Portland60,410± SF
266 Commercial Street Portland22,051± SF
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
NEW CONSTRUCTIONPOTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITES ON THE HORIZON
???± SF TOTAL
Bayside, Federated Companies site, Portland
Johnson Road, Portland
Portland Square, Portland
385 Congress Street, former Press Herald, Portland
West Commercial Street, JB Brown lots, Portland
100 Fore Street, Portland
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
CONCLUSIONSGREATER PORTLAND’S OFFICE MARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY RATES
DIRECT VACANCY533,390± SF
4.41%SUBLEASE24,826± SF
0.21%TOTAL558,216± SF
4.61%
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Southern Maine Office Forecast | Nate Stevens MEREDA’s 2018 Annual Forecast Conference
CONCLUSIONSPREDICTIONS
• Demand stays relatively low as office users get creative
• Older, unimproved products continue to struggle
• New construction downtown to create opportunities elsewhere, more supply?
• 2-3 new office buildings in Greater Portland, 1-2 in downtown Portland
• Relatively flat vacancy rate
• Medical office continues to be market driver
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Nate StevensAssociate Broker207.553.1702 D207.272.2385 [email protected]
One Canal PlazaSuite 500Portland, ME 04101207.772.1333www.boulos.com
Special Thanks:
Jessica Estes Michelle Peacock