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2018

Q2

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Table of Contents

UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q2 2018)…………..… 4

Population ………………………………………………………………………………….... 8 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2008 – Present

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%yoy)

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 BC’s Population Growth Breakdown

Economic Indicators ………………………………………………………………..…... 9 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver

2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2008 – Present

2.4 BC Unemployment Rate

2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2008 – Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2008 – Present

Economic Indicators. ..…………………………………………………………..……..10 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada

3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2008 – Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)

3.4 BC Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)

3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Housing Economic Indicators …………………………………………............... 11 4.1 Homeowner Protection Office Single Family Registrations

4.2 Homeowner Protection Office Multi-Family Registrations

Housing Economic Indicators………………….…………………………….……. 12 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ………………………………..…13 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2018

Table of Contents

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums ……………………….….. 14 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

New Home Data: Townhomes ……………………………………………............ 15 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

UA Affordability Index: New Home Data …………………………………….. 16 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums

9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver………............ 17 10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices

10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

10.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices

10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

10.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board………….…………………………….......... 18 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices


11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices


11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments……………........... 19 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver

12.2 Turnover Rates by Region

12.3 Availability Rates by Region

12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot

12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Methodology & Definitions…………………………………………………………. 20 Definitions

Analytical Methods

Other Assumptions

Sources …………………………………………………………………………………....… 21 Sources

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



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Metro Vancouver Housing Starts (Before Demolition) and Population Change (15+)

Housing Starts

Population Change (15+)

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Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start

UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication

Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific’s “State of the Market” quarterly publication. The Q2-2018 “State of the Market” report provides up-to-date statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as the amalgamation of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics’ New Home Source Live database as well as BC Housing’s new home registry statistics. Population Growth & Housing Starts

The table above shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s housing starts and population change over the past four years. Please note, housing start data in this chart does not account for housing demolitions. The most recent housing starts total (5,542 in Q2-2018) is down 13 percent from last quarter but is up 20 percent from the six-year average. The only sector that experienced an increase in new home starts from the previous quarter was the single family market (up 15 percent). Metro Vancouver’s net population change was up by 9,900 residents, which is up 19 percent from the same quarter last year and up 16 percent from the six-year average.

The previous chart shows Metro Vancouver’s population growth to housing starts. The current ratio of 1.8 is up from the 1.1 recorded last quarter and is nearing the six-year average of 2.0. While the current ratio is below the five year average, it should be noted that a majority of the new housing starts have been sold in a strong pre-sale market. For reference, of the 5,664 units released in projects that are pre-construction over 80 percent are sold and this total will rise by the time construction begins. Furthermore, it should be noted that the population tables do not factor in demand for housing that come from Temporary Residents in Metro Vancouver.

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



Local Economic Factors

Notable factors having an impact on Metro Vancouver’s housing market are recently introduced taxation measures by the Provincial Government and stricter mortgage lending policies introduced by the Bank of Canada. The recently introduced, provincial “School Tax” on properties assessed at $3.0 million or higher ultimately adds an additional 0.2 and 0.4 percent tax on homes above the previously noted threshold and is aimed at curbing demand at the higher spectrum of the residential real estate market. The Bank of Canada has increased its five-year posted rate for the fourth consecutive quarter and is currently at 5.34 percent. Overall re-sales in Metro Vancouver this past quarter were down 25 percent compared to the same quarter last year which in part can be attributed to both taxation and mortgage policies. Note however that overall affordability levels in the market have remained relatively unchanged. New multi-family home sales totals in Q2-2018 were down nine percent and overall listings are currently up 60 percent from the same quarter last year. Interestingly, there are still a number of recent pre-sale project launches that have been seeking all-time high list prices for their respective locations despite the recent sales decline in the market. Anecdotal reporting from our primary research suggests that there has been more sensitivity for new multi-family product priced above the $1.3 million mark. New multi-family project sales representatives cite the lower levels of sales activity and increased competition in the single family sector of the market as rendering it more challenging for downsizers to confidently purchase into a pre-sale development knowing they will achieve their desired sale price when they sell their existing home.

Global Economic Factors

While the Government of Canada is attempting to pursue ongoing NAFTA negotiations with the United States, American negotiators have recently ceased operating in the traditional tri-lateral format by initially attempting to negotiate exclusively with Mexico prior to negotiating with Canada. In the meantime, the US government has also increased tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and in retaliatory measures the Canadian Government has placed tariffs on the same metals from the US as well as an estimated 80 consumer products. The effect of this could be domestic inflation with potential for increased Bank of Canada interest rates as a result. Higher priced steel and aluminum will likely cause increased construction costs for new development, a cost that will ultimately be passed on to the purchasers in new developments. We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the report and find it to be informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication. Sincerely, Urban Analytics Inc.

Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest

Table of Contents

Q2-2018



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-0.25%

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–

Population

Insights & Comments:

• Metro Vancouver’s population continues to grow steadily and is now at 2,223,300 residents in Q2-2018: up by 9,900 from last quarter, a 0.45 percent growth rate.

• Net overall migration to BC in the most recent update (Q1-2018) remained relatively consistent year-over-year with 12,932 additional residents.

• This is an 80 percent increase from the previous quarter and a seven percent increase from the same quarter last year.

• International migration to BC increased significantly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter up 42 and 92 percent respectively with a total of 12,136 net

international migrants.

• Note however, that net Interprovincial migration for the most recent update (Q1-2018) is down 77 percent year-over-year with 796 net migrants, representing the

lowest first quarter increase after returning from negative levels in 2013.

• With the inclusion of net Non-Permanent Residents (not included in graph 1.6), BC population has increased by 66,719 over the 12 months ending June 30th 2018,

with a large portion of that increase settling in the Metro Vancouver Area.

1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2008 - Present

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%)

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown

Q2-2018

Table of Contents

BC's Population Growth Break Down Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018

11,125 11,723 10,827 10,509

22,076 14,272 9,305 12,862

10,163 8,707 8,952 12,190

43,364 34,702 29,084 35,561

8,993 8,847 9,637 10,273

17,042 13,729 8,451 12,066

2,833 3,887 3,357 3,167

28,868 26,463 21,445 25,506

14,496 8,239 7,639 10,055

Out-Migrants

Net Increase/Decrease

Emigrants

Total Net Decrease

Births

In-Migrants

Immigrants

Total Net Increase

Deaths



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Canada Metro Vancouver

Economic Indicators


• The Bank of Canada raised the five-year posted rate to 5.34 percent this quarter up from 5.14 percent, which is a return to the same rate in Q3-2013.

• This is the fourth consecutive rate raise since Q2-2017 which will further tighten restrictions for prospective home buyers trying to obtain a mortgage.

• Metro Vancouver’s labour force decreased by 34,200 during Q2-2018 and is now at 1,463,000 workers: This total is the first quarterly decrease since Q1-2017 and

represents a 0.9 percent decrease compared to Q2-2017.

• BC’s unemployment rate reversed its downward trend and was at 4.3 percent in Q2-2018: up 30 basis points compared to last quarter but still down 80 basis points

from the same quarter last year.

• $21.4 Billion worth of retail sales were recorded in Canada this past quarter: This is down one percent from last quarter but up six percent year-over-year.

• Canada’s GDP rose for the seventh consecutive quarter and still sits at $1.87 Trillion: The total is up 2.6 percent compared to the same quarter last year and is up 11

percent compared to the same quarter five years ago.

2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index

2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 2008 - Present

2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate

2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2008 - Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2008 - Present

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



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Economic Indicators

Insights & Comments: • The most recent update in Q1-2018 showed Canada’s budget recording a net $34.7 Billion deficit, which is up 32 percent to last quarter but is just a one percent

increase from the same quarter last year.

• Investment in new multi-family construction in BC reached the highest point for any first quarter, increasing seven percent from the same quarter last year.

• The price of crude oil continues to trend upward reaching $73 USD per barrel during Q2-2018. This marks a 59 percent increase from the same quarter last year.

• There were 1,064 bankruptcies recorded in BC this quarter. This total is down eight percent compared to the same quarter last year and is also the lowest quarterly

total recorded in the past 13 years.

• After a decline last quarter, the DJIA rebounded in Q2-2018 up to 24,271 points; up 14 percent year-over-year and up 30 percent from the five-year average.

• The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at the 16,277 mark at the end of Q2-2018, seven percent higher than the same quarter last year.

3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada

3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2008 - Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)

3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)

3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

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Table of Contents



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Housing Economic Indicators

All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public

registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction

defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home

registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences.

- Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations.

- Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals).

- New in 2018 data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and Abbotsford (Outer Metro)

Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time.


• Overall registrations in the Inner and Outer Metro regions were up 42 and 30 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year while overall registrations

in the City of Vancouver were down five percent compared to the same quarter last year.

• Single Family Home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 1,383 in Q2-2018; up eight percent compared to last quarter and up two percent year-over-year.

• Of the 1,383 registrations, 28 percent were in the City of Vancouver, 22 percent were in the Inner Metro region and 50 percent were in the Outer Metro region.

• Both the City of Vancouver and the Outer Metro region experienced a year-over-year increase in Single Family Home Registrations (six percent and 22 percent

respective increases), while Single Family Home Registrations in Inner Metro decreased 33 percent compared to the same quarter last year.

• Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 4,932 in Q2-2018: up 31 percent from the same quarter last year and up 23 percent from the five-year

average.

• Of the 4,932 registrations, 27 percent were in the City of Vancouver, 44 percent were in the Inner Metro region and 36 percent were in the Outer Metro region.

• Multi-family new home registrations increased year-over-year for both the Inner and Outer Metro region (72 percent and 35 percent respective increases) however,

multi-family home registrations for the City of Vancouver were down seven percent compared to the same quarter last year.

4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations

4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations

Q2-2018

Table of Contents

A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf



http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf

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Metro Vancouver BC

Housing Economic Indicators


• 5,542 new housing starts were recorded in Q2-2018 which is down 13 percent from the same quarter last year and also down 10 percent compared to the same

quarter in 2016.

• The largest contributor to overall starts in Q2-2018 was the condominium sector (3,881) which accounted for 70 percent of all new starts.

• Of the 3,881 condominium starts in Q2-2018, 30 percent were located in the City of Vancouver and 51 percent were located in the Inner Metro region.

• There were 1,177 single family homes starts in Q2-2018, 31 percent were located in the City of Vancouver and 41 percent were located in the Outer Metro region.

• Townhomes totaled 484 starts in Q2-2018; 26 percent were located in the Inner Metro region and 74 percent were located in the Outer Metro region.

• The housing price indexes for Metro Vancouver and BC remained similar to last quarter but are up five and four percent respectively over the past year.

• Overall vacancy rates throughout Metro Vancouver are reported at one percent for the most recent annual update (Fall 2017).

5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permits – Metro Vancouver

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



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500

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Inner Metro Outer Metro

New Home Data: Condominiums


• A total of 119 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in Q2-2018, a 25 percent increase compared to the same quarter last

year.

• The increase in actively selling projects has been relatively uniform across the City of Vancouver, Outer and Inner Metro regions.

• 1,246 new concrete condominiums were sold in Q2-2018, which is down by 49 percent compared to the same quarter last year and also down 60 percent compared

to last quarter.

• Of the 1,246 new concrete condominium sales, 395 (32 percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 718 (58 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and

133 (11 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region.

• A total of 742 new concrete condominium sales in Q2-2018 (60 percent of overall new concrete condominium sales) occurred in either Burnaby, New Westminster or

Vancouver West sub-markets.

• There were 1,997 released and unsold new concrete condominiums at the end of Q2-2018: up 77 percent compared to the same quarter last year and up 69 percent

compared to the same quarter two years ago.

• Of the released and unsold inventory, only 52 units are move in ready of which 60 percent are in one building in New Westminster.

1: Released and unsold “inventory” includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. “Standing Inventory” refers

unsold units that are complete and move-in ready.

6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums


• 46 new wood frame condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in Q2-2018. 80 percent of these projects are currently located in either the

Inner or Outer Metro regions.

• The total number of actively selling wood frame condominium projects remains at extreme lows despite increasing from last quarter.

• The total number of actively selling projects are down by 45 percent compared with the five-year average for this product type.

• A total of 1,078 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in Q2-2018.

• Of the 1,078 wood frame condominium sales, 24 (two percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 457 (42 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and

597 (55 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region.

• Q2-2018 sales were 15 percent higher than the five-year average, and were more in line with the longer term trend.

• There were 339 released and unsold new wood frame condominium units at the end of Q2-2018 which is the fourth lowest quarterly total recorded in eight years.

• Of the available inventory, 58 units (17 percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 108 units (32 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and 173 units

(51 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region.

• Only 16 of the 339 released and unsold new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver were move-in ready at the end of Q2-2018.

7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

1200

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

150

300

450

600

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900

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


0

50

100

150

200

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300

350

400

Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


New Home Data: Townhomes


• The total number of actively selling new townhome projects decreased to 84 in Q2-2018, which is slightly down from last quarter.

• This total is up six percent compared to the same quarter last year and up 40 percent compared to the same quarter two years ago.

• Of these projects, 49 percent were located in the Outer Metro region while 36 percent were located in the Inner Metro region and 15 percent were located in the City

of Vancouver.

• A total of 546 new townhome sales were recorded in Q2-2018.

• This represents a 37 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 52 percent decrease from the same quarter in 2017.

• Note that the Outer Metro region represented 52 percent of overall new townhome sales in Metro Vancouver while the City of Vancouver only represented three

percent of overall new townhome sales.

• A total of 597 new townhome units were released and unsold at the end of Q2-2018. This number is up six percent from last quarter and also up 20 percent

compared to the same quarter last year.

• The relative amount of the released and unsold inventory is mostly proportionate to the volume of sales in each region: 55 percent of released inventory is located in

the Outer Metro region, 35 percent is located in the Inner Metro region and nine percent is located in the City of Vancouver.

• Of the 565 released and unsold new townhomes in Metro Vancouver, 47 were move-in ready at the end of Q2-2018.

8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



73.6%74.3% 76.4%

76.5% 77.1% 75.0% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1%

55.1%

39.5%

31.0%34.7%

33.5%

54.4% 55.4% 53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 50.7%44.1% 42.2%

34.4% 37.2%

27.2% 29.5% 29.7%

18.0% 16.4%

38.6% 36.3%31.6%

31.5%29.7%

20.9%

12.9%9.0% 10.1% 9.5%

4.7% 6.7%9.0% 6.9%

7.2%

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018

Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver

72.5%73.3%

71.7%73.9% 73.4% 73.9%

68.2%66.9% 66.4% 67.4%

57.7%56.7% 54.8%

42.0%41.4%

61.8% 62.3% 61.9% 60.0% 59.5% 57.1%54.5% 52.7%

49.1% 48.1% 47.7%

39.9% 42.1%

26.2%26.4%

44.4%40.3%

38.2%39.9%

36.7%30.6%

26.8%29.6% 29.3% 29.4%

20.5%

33.2%26.4%

14.6%15.0%



67.7% 69.7% 68.5%64.4%

67.9%64.7%

57.9%53.7%

46.4%

55.1%

47.7%52.7% 53.2% 50.9%

52.8%51.1% 50.6%

59.0%

49.2% 47.9% 49.3%

36.8%32.6%

36.2% 36.6% 39.3%

32.9% 28.3%

19.2% 20.6%

32.8%34.7%

27.4%32.2%

22.4%27.3%

11.3% 9.0% 8.4% 10.3%4.2%

11.0%7.1% 8.2%

9.0%



UA Affordability Index: New Home Data

Insights & Comments: • Overall affordability for most sectors of the new home market have remained relatively stable through Q2-2018.

• Townhome affordability increased in all Metro Vancouver locations which can in part be attributed to a decrease in the median townhome price in the Vancouver

Proper, Inner and Outer Metro regions. Most median prices have increased for concrete and wood frame product across all three regions.

• Concrete condominium affordability remained relatively unchanged with the following percentage of earning households able to afford the median priced new

concrete condominium in their respective location in Q2-2018; 33.5 percent in Outer Metro, 16.4 percent in Inner Metro and 7.2 percent in Vancouver Proper.

• The following percentage of earning households could afford to purchase the median priced new wood frame condominium in their respective location in Q2-2018;

41.4 percent in Outer Metro, 26.4 percent in Inner Metro and 15 percent in Vancouver Proper.

• Sales in the wood frame condominium sector have performed well partially in part to its affordability relative to new townhomes and concrete condominiums.

• Vancouver remains the least affordable region with only seven percent of the income earning households being able to purchase the median priced concrete condo.

9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums

9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Sales Listings

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Th

ou

san

ds

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Th

ou

san

ds

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Sales Listings

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Th

ou

san

ds

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Q22017

Q22018

Sales Listings

Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver


• 3,873 apartment re-sales, 1,259 townhome re-sales and 2,295 single family re-sales were recorded in Q2-2018.

• Apartment re-sales were down 38 percent, townhome re-sales were down 32 percent and single family re-sales were down 29 percent year-over-year.

• Benchmark prices for apartments and townhomes have increased while the single family benchmark price has remained unchanged.

• Average benchmark prices were up 26 percent for apartments, up 19 percent for townhomes and up 3 percent for single family homes when compared to the same

quarter last year.

• Recent benchmark prices for apartment and townhome sectors established new all-time highs in Q2-2018.

• The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in Greater Vancouver in Q2-2018 are as follows: apartment - $702,300, townhome - $861,167, single family -

$1,604,000 (single family price unchanged on average for the quarter).

10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)


10.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)


10.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



$210

$230

$250

$270

$290

$310

$330

$350

$370

$390

$410

$430

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Th

ou

san

ds

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Sales Active Listings

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018


$310

$360

$410

$460

$510

$560

$610

$660

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Th

ou

san

ds

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2-2017 Q2 2018

Th

ou

san

ds

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2-2017 Q2 2018


Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board


• In Q2-2018, the relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 1,386 apartment re-sales, 1,166 townhome re-sales and 2,167 single family re-sales.

• Apartment, townhome and single family re-sales were down three, 13 and 11 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year.

• Apartment listings are up 169 percent, townhome listings are up 130 percent and single family listings are up 143 percent compared to the same quarter last year.

• Overall average prices for townhomes have achieved an all-time high in Q2-2018, while the average price for both apartments and single family homes have

decreased slightly from the previous quarter.

• Average prices were up 23 percent for apartments, up 16 percent for townhomes and down two percent for single family homes compared to the same quarter last

year.

• The average price of all product types in the Fraser Valley in Q2-2018 are as follows: Apartment - $416,664 townhome - $602,852, Single Family - $1,061,127.

11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices


11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices


11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


C total WF total TH total

0500

100015002000250030003500

Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units

29.68%

16.33%

13.84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Availability Rate Occupancy Rate

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Inner Metro PSF Outer Metro PSF Vancouver PSF

Concrete PSF Woodframe PSF Townhome PSF

0.74%

1.45%

2.16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Turnover Rate Occupancy Rate

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments


• A total of 8,191 newer actively leasing or fully leased purpose-built rental units were recorded across Metro Vancouver at the end of Q2-2018.

• The overall turnover rate for fully leased rental projects across Metro Vancouver is currently 1.8 percent.

• The Inner Metro region has the highest rate of availability of recently launched purpose-built rental units at 29.7 percent in large part due to two projects in New

Westminster with a significant amount of available inventory.

• Average rents for newer purpose-built wood frame rental apartment buildings were $2.73, $2.67 and $2.14 per square foot in Vancouver, Inner Metro and Outer

Metro, respectively.

• A total of 17,639 purpose-built rental units are in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver, with 47 percent being in the City of Vancouver,

1: Sample size of 9,369 units over 100 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver.

2: Refer to methodology on page 19.

12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver*

12.2 Rental Unit Turnover Rate by Region

12.3 Rental Unit Availability Rate By Region

12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot

12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Q2-2018

Table of Contents

Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For

more detailed rental information, contact

[email protected] for subscription options.

*The majority of the Rental Apartment data

referred to herein as ‘newer purpose-built

rental’ relates to purpose built rental apartment

buildings completed since 2010.



mailto:[email protected]

Methodology & Definitions – Affordability Index

Definitions

Inner Metro: Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port

Moody & Port Coquitlam.

Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Abbotsford.

Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East.

Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were

collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used).

Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 2016 Census Survey.

Assumed Down Payments

Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 20%

Townhomes: 30%

The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in

their existing property.

Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 30-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis

and taking the greater of the average plus 2% or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada.

Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage

payments.

Methodology & Definitions – New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments

Analytical Methods Chart 1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of “move-in ready” units by product type. “Move-in ready” is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Chart 2: Turnover Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are fully leased only. Chart 3: Availability Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are actively leasing only. Chart 4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type.

Q2-2018

Table of Contents



Sources

Sources

Q2-2018

1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey


1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates




2.1 - Bank of Canada

2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index



2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province

2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product

3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget

3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing

3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices)

3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics

3.5 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics

3.6 - Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada

4.1 BC Housing - New Single Family Registrations

4.2 BC Housing - New Multi-Family Registrations

5.1 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford



5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits

5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes

5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report

6.1 - UA New Home Source Database




Table of Contents









9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites



10.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics






11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics






12.1 – UA New Home Source Rental Database







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