2018 semiconductor equipment and materials market: have we ... · semi® 2018 fall equipment...

2018 Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Market: Have we Reached an Inflection Point?

Lara Chamness, Senior Market Analyst, Manager, SEMI

Copyright © 2018 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved

Outline

• Industry Overview

• Equipment

• Materials

• Summary

Current SEMI Market Data Product Portfolio

3

Fab Forecast Semiconductor, MEMS &

Sensors, LED, Power

Devices

• SEMI FabView New Update

• World Fab Forecast Aug `18

• World Fab Watch Aug `18

• Global 200mm Fab June `18

Outlook to 2022

• Opto/LED Fab Forecast

• Opto/LED Fab Watch

• Customized Fab Reports

• Worldwide OSAT

Manufacturing Sites

Database Sept, 2018

• Global Semiconductor

Packaging Materials

Outlook May `18

• China Semiconductor

Packaging Market

Outlook May `18

Device Packaging and

Testing Market

Materials MarketSemiconductor

Materials

• Material Market Data

Subscription New Update

• Photomask

Characterization

Report

• Silicon Reclaim Wafer

Characterization

Equipment &

Component Market

• Equipment Market Data

Subscription New Update

• Semiconductor Equipment

Market Statistics New Update

(WWSEMS)

• New Equipment Forecast

• Mass Flow Controller

Market Statistics New

Update

Globalfoundries

• SEMI China IC Ecosystem Report – a new comprehensive report contains in-depth analysis of China’s wide-ranging IC

manufacturing ecosystem within the global semiconductor industry. New in October `18

Industry Overview


3 Eras of Demand

Source: VLSI Research, ISS US January 2018


Explosion of Data Generation

Source: Applied Materials, SEMICON West July 2018


Source: Semiconductor Application Forecaster, IDC, June 2018

(1) Industrial includes Retail, Energy, Medical, Military, Aero

(2) Comm Infrastructure includes Wireless Infrastructure from Wireless Comm Industry

(3) Wireless Comm excludes Wireless Infrastructure

Semiconductor Revenue by Key Market Segments 2018-2022

MPU / MCU / DSP

Memory Application Specific

Other

2018-2022 CAGR

$44.1 $45.5

$83.6 $81.9

$25.0 $32.3

$8.8 $9.1

2018 2022

$161.6$168.7

1.1%

2018-2022 CAGR

$3.0 $3.2

$70.9 $69.5

$45.3$60.6

$25.7

$29.4

2018 2022

$144.9

$162.6

2.9%

$4.8 $5.3

$12.9 $9.7

$21.3$20.3

$20.0 $22.0

2018 2022

$59.0 $57.4

-0.7%

2018-2022 CAGR

$8.1 $11.6$2.4 $4.5

$13.2$16.9

$19.6

$29.2

2018 2022

$43.3

$62.2

2018-2022 CAGR

9.5%

$7.8 $9.8$4.3 $3.2

$9.9 $12.4

$22.6

$29.3

2018 2022

$44.6

$54.7

2018-2022 CAGR

5.2%2018-2022 CAGR

$2.7 $2.9$3.4 $3.0

$15.9 $16.9

$5.9 $6.3

2018 2022

$27.8$29.2

1.2%

Source: IDC


Semiconductor Industry Revenues2017 Soars Past $400 billion

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Se

mic

on

du

cto

r R

eve

nu

e($

US

Bill

ion

)

Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports

$ 200B

13 years

$ 400B

$ 300B

4 years

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1987

1988

1989

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1991

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2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

US

$ B

illio

ns

Equipment $B Materials $B

Total Equipment Revenue vs. Total Material Revenue Trends

Source: Equipment: SEMI/SEAJ

Materials: Rose and Associates 1987-1999, SEMI 2000-present

200 mm ramp

“Irrational

Exuberance” 300 mm ramp

2018 Semiconductors Forecasts – Upward Revision

Jan-18, 5.9%

Jan-18, 7.4%

Jan-18, 7.7%

Nov-17, 8.0%

Jan-18, 7.5%

Nov-17, 7.0%

Aug-18, 16.3%

Jul-18, 14.9%

Jun-18, 14.9%

Mar-18, 14.0%

Jul-18, 14.0%

Aug-18, 15.7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Cowen LRA

IHS Markit

VLSI-IC

IC Insights

Gartner

WSTS

Mid-Year Initial

Early Year Forecast Average = 7.3%

Mid-Year Average = 15.0%

Source: August 2018, SEMI


2019 Semiconductor Forecasts

VLSI-IC (Jun 18),-3.4%

IDC (Sept 18), 0.7%

IHS Markit (Jul 18), 4.0%

IC Insights (Mar 18), 4.0%

Cowan LRA (Aug 18), 5.0%

WSTS (Aug 18), 5.2%

Gartner (Jul 18), 7.0%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Source: September 2018, SEMI

Trade Dispute – U.S. and China

Recent Developments Earlier this year, there was the ZTE ban

US has set a 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods ($34B since early July and $16B started on Aug. 23)

On Sept 17, U.S. released the final $200 billion tariff list that will be subject to a 10% tariff, effective Sept 24 (& will increase to 25% on January 1)

China has responded in equivalent manner; placing tariffs on $110 billion worth of goods and has restricted Micron sales into China

On Oct. 30, DOC restricted U.S. companies from selling equipment, software, and materials to Jin Hua Semiconductor on the grounds of national security

Impacts The trade war will further strengthen China’s resolve to develop local semiconductor

capability and accelerate China’s technological development

The trade war will have supply chain managers to adjust their sourcing and production strategy in order to diversify the risk

MNCs may need to reconsider their future (capacity) investments in China

Equipment Trends

Fab Investment by Regions – Korea and China Drive the Growth

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Americas China Europe & Mideast Japan Korea SE Asia Taiwan

US$ billion

Source: Prelim. World Fab Forecast Reports, October 2018, SEMI

Fab Equipment Spending by Region

2016 2017 2018 2019 Region

Change (%)

2018 to

2019

China 25%

Americas 24%

Taiwan 15%

Japan -12%

Korea -16%

SE Asia -8%

EMEA -25%

Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcements and is subject to change depending on actual execution.


Monthly Trends- Equipment, Silicon, & Semi Units

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Sep-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Sep-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-16

Jun

-16

Sep-1

6

Dec-1

6

Ma

r-17

Jun

-17

Sep-1

7

Dec-1

7

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep-1

8

Inde

x

Equip Billings Index Silicon Shipments Semi Units

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q4 Q4

Source: SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription, November 2018 ,

SEMI SMG, November 2018

WSTS Bluebook, October 2018

Note: Index is based on 3-month moving average, Base = January 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3

YoY

(through September)

+21% Equipment

+8% Silicon

+9% Devices


Year-to-Date Equipment Billings

Source: SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription, November 2018

20.5%

Worldwide SEMS Billing Trends

(U.S. Dollars in Millions)

12.0%

-14.4%

63.1%

63.4%

$6,457

$1,986

$41,519

2017 Year-to-

Date

(September)

$8,602

$4,530

$4,006

$13,306

$3,245

$50,031

Korea

Taiwan

China

ROW

Total

$10,533

$14,906

$7,365

Japan

North America -3.4%

$2,632

2018 Year-to-

Date

(September)

$3,309

$6,805

$3,869

50.2%

Region

Europe

Y/Y %

Change

25.7%

• Billings through September for these

regions are already higher than their

respective 2017 totals


Quarterly Equipment Billings Trends by Region

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

3Q2017 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018

Europe Rest of the World North America Japan Taiwan Korea China

Source: SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription, November 2018

US$ Billion

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

China 4.90 6.46 8.23 12.44 14.42 18.65

Europe 1.94 2.18 3.67 4.39 3.39 4.15

Japan 5.49 4.63 6.49 8.13 7.68 9.58

Korea 7.47 7.69 17.95 17.19 15.93 19.34

North America 5.12 4.49 5.59 5.49 6.53 6.94

SEA/ROW 1.97 3.55 3.20 3.77 3.61 4.73

Taiwan 9.64 12.23 11.49 10.59 12.04 11.65

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

US

$ B

illio

ns

Taiwan SEA/ROW North America Korea Japan Europe China

$36.53$41.23

$56.62

$62.01$63.61

$75.04

SEMI® 2018 Fall Equipment ForecastBy Market Region

Source: Equipment Market Data Subscription, November 2018, SEMI

New front-end and back-end equipment. Totals may not add due to rounding

• Most regions will see healthy

growth in 2018, except for

Taiwan, Korea, & N. America

• 2018 may end higher while

2019 could be flat

• Korea will remain the largest

equipment market through

2020

• China expected to come out

strong in 2019 but trade

tensions loom

Materials

Materials Forecast By Segment

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2018

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

US

$ B

illio

ns

Wafer Fab Materials Packaging Materials

0%

10%9%

3%

3%

13% 13%

4%

-4%

5%3% 1%

• 2018 will surpass the market

peak set in 2011

• Wafer Fab materials set

record level in 2017

• Growth is driven by silicon

in 2017 & 2018

• Packaging materials market is

facing headwinds


Silicon Wafer MarketRecovery in Aggregated Average Selling Price

Annual Silicon Wafer Trends

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MSI Revenue ($M) ASP

• Peak revenues back in 2007

• Several year period of

declining ASPs while

shipments increased

• 2017 rebound in ASPs to

propel +17% revenue growth

• Even with rebound in pricing,

ASPs remain well below 2007

peak

Declining ASPs

Record shipments

Source: Materials Market Data Subscription, August 2018, SEMI

Copyright © 2018 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved22

Packaging Trends and Transitions

Image Source: TechSearch International

▪ Wire bond is not dead….but industry evolving to

increased packaging and assembly at the wafer level

▪ Memory industry at an inflection point in interconnect

technology

▪ Leadframe to organic substrate packages

▪ WB to FC

▪ FO-WLP is a disruptive technology

▪ Traditional model:

▪ Wafer is processed in fab

▪ Wafer sent to assembly facility for singulation,

assembly, and test

▪ New model:

▪ Some wafers stay at the foundry for packaging and

assembly

▪ Some OSATs install wafer processing (“like”)

equipment to create package on the wafer

© 2018 TechSearch International, Inc.


Summary

• Semiconductor Industry Outlook

‒ Solid growth forecasted for 2018 and 2019

‒ Longer term prospects are positive as technology innovation advances

• Fab Investment & Equipment Market

‒ 3D NAND, DRAM, Foundry investments are key drivers to spending

‒ Total Equipment forecast +10% in 2018 and +3% in 2019‒ Trade tensions between China-US present significant downside risk to 2019

• Materials

• +9% in 2018 – new record!

• +3% in 2019

POLICIES - INVESTMENTS - TECHNOLOGY - CAPACITIES

• 25 new fab construction projects

• Leading segments: Foundry, DRAM and

3D NAND

• Enhanced technology and advanced

capabilities in Packaging and Test

• New development in equipment and

materials segments

Request a

Sample Reporthttp://www.semi.org/en/

china-ic-ecosystem-

report

To order, call SEMI

Global Customer Service at

1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

http://www.semi.org/en/china-ic-ecosystem-report

To Request a

Sample Reportwww.semi.org/world-osat-

database-sample

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

Worldwide OSAT Manufacturing Sites Database

• Over 120 companies and 300 facilities

• Over 90 facilities offering leadframe CSP

• Over 25 bumping facilities, including 20 with

300mm wafer bumping capacity

• More than 45 facilities offering WLCSP technology

• 92 facilities in China, 89 in Taiwan, 39 in Southeast

Asia

http://info.semi.org/osat-database-sample-request

Automotive, IoT (Internet of Things), and mobile

applications are driving the need for devices

such as power, analog, MEMS and Sensors in

200 mm manufacturing. Data report with

forecast to 2022.

To Request a

Sample Reporthttp://www.semi.org/200m

m-outlook-report-sample

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

http://www.semi.org/200mm-outlook-report-sample

• Insight to technology trends, market size and forecast

• Key package offerings and technologies, supplier

market share

• Improve business analysis and empower with verified,

validated, and credible data

To Request a

Sample Reportwww.semi.org/en/packagi

ng-material-sample-report

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook to 2021

http://www.semi.org/en/packaging-material-sample-report

POLICIES – INVESTMENTS – TECHNOLOGY - CAPACITIES

New 2018 Edition

• Economic and political implications of

China's IC policy and funding

• China IC packaging market value chain

• Identify market opportunities and

challenges

To Request a

Sample Report

http://www.semi.org/china-

semiconductor-packaging-

market-outlook-2018-

edition

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

To Request a

Sample Reportwww.semi.org/semi-

fabview-trial

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

• FOUNDRY - MEMORY - MEMS & SENSORS

POWER - OPTO - COMPOUND

• Worldwide Fab Forecast to 2019

• Fab Data. Online. 24/7 Access

• Downloadable for customized analysis

http://www.semifabview.org/

http://info.semi.org/semi-fabview-trial

• Connect to the Latest Fab Details with SEMI World

Fab Forecast

• Past, Present, and Future Outlook

• FOUNDRY - MEMORY - MEMS & SENSORS

POWER - OPTO - COMPOUND

To Request a

Sample Reportwww.semi.org/world-fab-

forecast-sample

To order, call SEMI


1.877.746.7788 (toll free)

http://info.semi.org/semi-world-fab-forecast

http://www.semi.org/world-fab-forecast-sample

2018 semiconductor equipment and materials market: have we ... · semi® 2018 fall equipment...

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