2019 corn lessons - farmsmart · hog feeder, north lambton (3200 chu)-june 14, all corn on corn for...

2019 Corn Lessons

Missouri Crops

Greg Stewart, MaizexBen Rosser, OMAFRA

Impact of Hybrid Selection on Yield

Yield Change per Point (%) of Moisture?

Yield Change per 100 CHU?

Impact of Hybrid Maturity on Yield

Have Things Changed?

Can I Pull Back on Hybrid CHU with LessYield Risk Than 10, 20 or 30 Years Ago?

Implication for Delayed Planting – Wet May – Switching Hybrids



OCCYield vs MoistureTable 2 - 2017


y = 3.319x + 102.23R² = 0.2414

145.0

155.0

165.0

175.0

185.0

195.0

205.0

215.0

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Yield changes 3.3 bu/acre per point (%) of Moisture

24 % of the variability in Yield is explained by Moisture



y = 11.186x - 50.047R² = 0.5547

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Yield changes 11.1 bu/acre for every % moisture.

55 % of the variability explained by moisture.



OCCYield vs CHUTable 2 - 2018

y = 0.0934x - 53.281R² = 0.6346

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200

Yield changes 9.3 bu/acre per 100 CHU

63 % of the variability explained by CHU

Change in Yield versus CHU over Time?

OCC Data:2017, 2018, 20192007, 2008, 20091997, 1998, 19991987, 1988, 1989

Multi Site Tables Containing:EloraWoodstockRidgetown


Yield Impact of Adjusting Hybrids by 100 CHU OCC Data from 1987 – 2019. Performance Data from Tables Including Elora, Woodstock, Ridgetown.

10.6

5.7

6.7

5.65.9

4.6

6.6

2.3

5.2

10.5

8.7

5.4

7.2 6.97.3

4.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

87,88,89 97,98,99 07,08,09 17,18,19

Yiel

d Ch

ange

/ 1

00 C

HU

Elora Woodstock Ridgetown Average

Not too much….

The last 3 years, generally had the lowest response to CHU over the entire period……….

Trend?

Focus onLast ThreeYears……

4.4 Bu/acre per 100 CHU or

4.2 Bu/acre per Point of Moisture

This is still too much yield to ignore…..generally trumping drying costs.

Drying Costs Drying Costs(10 Points %)

(25.5 %)

Yield / % M (Breakeven)

StartingPoint

Yield @ %

3 % WetterBreakeven

Yield$ / % M / Bu $ / Tonne Bu/ac / % M

$0.07 $27.56 3.7 200 bu @ 25%

211 bu @ 28%

$0.04 $15.75 2.0 200 bu @ 25%

206 bu @ 28%

Current average from OCC data (’17-’19) is 4.2 bu/ac / % M

Yield Increases versus Drying Costs??

Not too much evidence to support the idea that shorter season hybrids are gaining ground on longer season hybrid.

However if the season really is delayed there are some interesting observations from the OCC data…..


20175.8 bu/acre per 100 CHU



y = 0.0149x - 13.466R² = 0.6901

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200

Moisture vs CHU - OCC Table 2 - 2019

1.5 % Moisture Reduction per 100 CHU

OMAFRA

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?

OMAFRA

Q:Planting is delayed. When do we start to decrease corn hybrid maturities, and by how much?



30-Yr Average CHU Accumulation at Elora (1989-2018)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

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3000

3500

4000

01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec

Crop

Hea

t Uni

ts (C

HU)

Average Cumulative CHU CHU



10%

50%

90%

0.00

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0.20

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0.90

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Hea

t Uni

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HU)

First Killing Frost (-2°C) Events Average Cumulative CHU Killing Frost Risk



10%

50%

90%

0.00

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t Uni

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HU)


Sept 28



10%

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90%

0.00

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0.40

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0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

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Hea

t Uni

ts (C

HU)


2850 CHU

Sept 28



10%

50%

90%

0.00

0.10

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0.40

0.50

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1.00

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Hea

t Uni

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HU)


Sept 28

2850 CHU



10%

50%

90%

0.00

0.10

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1.00

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Hea

t Uni

ts (C

HU)


Hybrids have some “flex” Sept 28

2850 CHU

OMAFRA

Q:Planting is delayed. When do we start to decrease corn hybrid maturities, and by how much?

A:Depends on your length of season.

CHU Region Starting Switch Date> 3,200 May 30 to Early June2,800-3,200 May 20-25<2,800 May 15-20

Reduce 100 CHU per week after these dates.

(Pub 811: Agronomy Guide for Field Crops)


How about later June planting?



10%

50%

90%

0.00

0.10

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0.30

0.40

0.50

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0.90

1.00

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500

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Crop

Hea

t Uni

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HU)




10%

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90%

0.00

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Hea

t Uni

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HU)

First Killing Frost (-2°C) Events Average Cumulative CHU 2019 Cumulative CHU Killing Frost Risk

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 1:- Strip Till Trial, Elora (2850 CHU)- Switch date May 20-25- June 4 planting date… 3 switches (-300 CHU)

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 1:- Strip Till Trial, Elora (2850 CHU)- Switch date May 20-25- June 4 planting date… 3 switches (-300 CHU)

Plant Date

CHU1

Sugg.CHU

Planted

June 4 2550 2550

1 - Suggested CHU in 2800-3200 CHU zone is to reduce 100 CHU per week starting May 20-25

* - estimated date, not actually recorded

June July August September October

V8 Tassel* Dough Early Dent

~ 1/2 Milk

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 2:- Strip Till Trial, Drumbo (3000 CHU)- Switch date May 20-25- June 9 planting date… 3.5 switches (-350 CHU)

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 2:- Strip Till Trial, Drumbo (3000 CHU)- Switch date May 20-25- June 9 planting date… 3.5 switches (-350 CHU)

Plant Date

CHU1

Sugg.CHU

Planted

June 9 2650 2700


V8 Tassel* Milk Early Dent

1/3 Milk

> 1/2 Milk



2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 3:- Perth Demo Farm, Bornholm (2950 CHU)- June 12 planting date- Switch date May 20-25… 4 switches (-400 CHU)

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 3:- Perth Demo Farm, Bornholm (2950 CHU)- June 12 planting date- Switch date May 20-25… 4 switches (-400 CHU)

Plant Date

CHU1

Sugg.CHU

Planted

June 12 2550 2650


V8 Tassel* Milk ~ 1/2 Milk



2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 4:- Hog feeder, North Lambton (3200 CHU)- June 14, all corn on corn for feed, partially planted but won’t get more in by

Agricorp deadline… corn futures look too expensive to plant soybeans and buy corn

- Will continue planting corn, dealer suggests 2650 CHU… is this a proper fit?

1 - Suggested CHU in >3200 CHU zone is to reduce 100 CHU per week starting May 30 to early June

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Case Study 4:- Hog feeder, North Lambton (3200 CHU)- June 14, all corn on corn for feed, partially planted but won’t get more in by

Agricorp deadline… corn futures look too expensive to plant soybeans and buy corn

- Will continue planting corn, dealer suggests 2650 CHU… is this a proper fit?

Agronomic Info: June July August September OctoberV9 Tassel Late Dough,

Early Dent1/2Milk

Black Layer

V9 Tassel Dough 1/3Milk

>> 1/2 Milk

V9 Tassel Dough Dent > 1/2 Milk

Plant Date

CHU1

Sugg.CHU

Planted

June 9 3000 2650

June 19 2850 2650

June 23 2800 2650

1 - Suggested CHU in >3200 CHU zone is to reduce 100 CHU per week starting May 30 to early June

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Observations from 2019:- Adjusting to remaining CHU is too aggressive, especially early on- A couple weekly 100 CHU reductions after switch date is likely reasonable- More aggressive reductions likely required after this

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Table 2 weeks after switch date 3 weeks after switch date Comparison of 100 CHU/week, stronger pullbacks, how many CHU left?

2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Observations from 2019:- Adjusting to remaining CHU is too aggressive, especially early on- A couple weekly 100 CHU reductions after switch date is likely reasonable- More aggressive reductions are likely required after this

Date Pub 811 Middle Ground?

Remaining CHU

May 1 2850 - 2850

Presenter

Presentation Notes


2. How Do We Adjust Maturity for Late Planting?Observations from 2019:- Adjusting to remaining CHU is too aggressive, especially early on- A couple weekly 100 CHU reductions after switch date is likely reasonable- More aggressive reductions are likely required after this

Date Pub 811 Middle Ground?

RemainingCHU

May 1 2850 - 2850May 20 2750 (-100) 2750 (-100) 2640May 27 2650 (-200) 2650 (-200) 2530June 3 2550 (-300) 2450 (-400) 2410

June 10 2450 (-400) 2280June 17 2350 (-500) 2130

Presenter

Presentation Notes


3. Nitrogen Management in 2019?

Impact of a Late, Slow Spring on N Management?



PSNT Survey- June 17-19 (V3-V4)- 2019: 8 ppm



PSNT Survey- June 17-19 (V3-V4)- 2019: 8 ppm- 2011-2018: 12 ppm



PSNT Survey- June 17-19 (V3-V4)- 2019: 8 ppm- 2011-2018: 12 ppm

5 ppm nitrate change = ~25-30 lb/ac N rec change

Can PSNT Values Push N Recommendations in the Right Direction?Field A(Lake Farm West)

Field B(Lidster Farm)

N Tracker Recommendation (lbs N/ac)

50 Up front + 126Sidedress

50 Up Front + 64Sidedress

Soil Nitrate Recommendation (lbs N/ac)



Optimal N Rate Determined from Field N Rate Strip Results (lbs N/ac)



Yield at Optimal N Rate (bu/ac)

212 205

Intensive Corn Management

Which Wins?

50 lbs more Nitrogen??5,000 additional Seeds??Fungicide application??

Intensive – Fungicide (Headline AMP), Population (37,000 PPA), Nitrogen (200 lbs/acre)

Corn Yield Response to Intensive Management, 2017Exeter and Belmont - Average of 8 Hybrids

Standard

Fungicide Only

Nitrogen Only

Population Only

Maizex 2018 Intensive Management TrialsElora, Waterloo, Marieville - 2018

232

233

238

230

238

200 210 220 230 240 250 260

Population High

Nitrogen High

Fungicide Only

Standard

Intensive

185

203

208

222

160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240

Defensive

Standard

Fungicide

Intensive

Corn Yield (bu/ac)

Impact of Management Treatments on Corn Yields – Early MaturitiesSites: Elora, Waterloo, St. Hyacinthe Year: 2019

214

227

236

238

160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240

Defensive

Standard

Fungicide

Intensive

Corn Yield (bu/ac)

Impact of Management Treatments on Corn Yields – Late MaturitiesSites: Belmont, Dresden, Ridgetown Year: 2019

Impact of Fungicides on Harvest Moisture

Traditionally .75% to 1.5% Increase2019?10 sites x 8 hybrids in 20190.8 % wetter.

2019 corn lessons - farmsmart · hog feeder, north lambton (3200 chu)-june 14, all corn on corn for...

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