2019 results presentation - ethos capital · w accessible customer base 650m access to +650m mobile...

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Page 1: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION

26 SEPTEMBER 2019

0

Page 2: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CO

NT

EN

TS

Introduction

Portfolio overview

Valuation overview

Liquidity analysis

1

Conclusion

Page 3: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Im

pa

ct

o

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et

d

riv

er

s

Key drivers impacting top-line performance…

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Qu

art

erl

y g

row

th (

%)

Quarterly GDP growth (%)

Fund VI

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018A

vera

ge

US

DZ

AR

Foreign Exchange Rate

Fund VI

Key cost of sales drivers…

17.0 18.1 19.625.0

31.9

42.250.3

58.562.8

67.675.4

81.8 82.5

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

90.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Avera

ge

pri

ce

c/k

Wh

so

ld

Electricity price Fund VI

2011 - 2018 CAGR:

10.0%

2011 - 2018 CAGR:

9.0%

2

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pri

ce

(9

5u

l; c

oast

al; c

/l)

Petrol price

2011 - 2018 CAGR:

6.2%

Fund VI

52,000

52,500

53,000

53,500

54,000

54,500

55,000

55,500

56,000

56,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual GDP per capita (ZAR)

Fund VI

Market conditions, cost pressures and uncertainty provide a tough investment backdrop!

MM Fund

MM Fund

MM Fund

MM Fund

MM Fund

Page 4: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

The difficult operating environment has lent itself to opportunities across the funds

3

Up

da

te

o

n

a

fu

nd

b

y

fu

nd

b

as

is

Large Equity

Mid Market

Mezzanine

Ai

• Fund VI finished investing phase and commenced exit phase – two exits Kevro and Eaton

• Intensive focus on portfolio companies with strong traction in restructurings and cost reductions

• Fund VII in investment phase – two deals Channel Vas and Echo – strong pipeline of

opportunities

• Focus on key investment themes and deep value opportunities with cyclical upside

• MMF is 65% invested and the team’s focus is on maximising outcomes in the portfolio

• Promising signs across the mid-market equity assets (Echo, Gammatek, Synerlytic, Kevro)

Autozone, Twinsaver and Eazi Access remain under pressure

• Very significant SA focussed investment pipeline – can afford to be selective

• Strong pipeline of opportunities in East African structured equity growth capital

• Negotiations on two transactions nearing completion

• Chibuku had a challenging year operationally given weather conditions and other exogenous

issues in Malawi

• Strong traction in fund raising

• Differentiated value add impact on Channel Vas and Vertice

• Investment in Tyme Bank

• Strong pipeline of opportunities

ZAR2.6 billionInvested

ZAR2.1bn in

new investments

ZAR500m in

follow on capital

ZAR2.9 billionRaised

ZAR2bn for Fund VII

R254m for EMP3

R640m for Ai Fund I

Page 5: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

# of Portfolio Companies

19

NAV per Share

R11.34

Growth in NAV per share

3%

EV / EBITDA(Actual)

6.9x

Capital Invested

R1.43bn

Capital Invested (Proforma)

R1.58bn

Net Debt / EBITDA(Actual)

1.9x

Total Assets

R1.93bn

Proforma invested capital (as % of Total Assets)

82%

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sHighlights of the operating results

4

Page 6: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CO

NT

EN

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Introduction

Portfolio overview

Valuation overview

Liquidity analysis

5

Outlook

Page 7: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

3%

30%

26%

12%

10%

4%

15%

Banking Consumer goods FinTech Industrials Media MedTech Telco services

60%

40%

South Africa Sub Saharan Africa

Exposure to 19 portfolio companies across various sectors and vintages Invested Capital by sector / geography

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wPortfolio overview and value contribution

6

Page 8: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

712

867

Net newinvestments

Fu

nd

in

ve

st

me

nt

s

in

2

01

9Significant investment in the past 12 months across six new portfolio companies

7

Page 9: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Assets owned for less than one year

Assets owned for more than one year

18%

36%

46%

Cash Assets < 1yr Assets > 1 yr

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nNet asset value contribution and “age” of the investment portfolio

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Page 10: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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Blue chip customer base

A++ Airtel Africa, MTN, Orange, Vodafone and Safaricom, amongst others

Balanced portfolio exposure

<27% No single country has more than 27% of total number of towers

Operating efficiencies

>50% EBITDA margin increased from 30% to >50% over life of investment

Annuity profile

10yrs New lease contracts typically entered into for a 10 year duration

Pan-regional presence

5 Presence across Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, Burkina Faso and Niger

Increasingly

connected

populations

(Data & Voice)

Multi-currency

exposure

Key investment themes

Investment / Exit date: June 2015 / October 2019 Ethos consortium ownership: 14.4%

Business: Telecommunications Fund VI Invested Capital: R405m

Ethos Fund VI ownership: 4.8% Gross returns (ZAR): 2.4x TMB / 23.4% IRR

Successful exit of Eaton Towers

9

Eaton Towers is a leading independent pan-African tower company with over 5,000 tower sites across five countries

Pan-African

Footprint

Scalable

business model

Page 11: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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Accessible customer base

650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers

Daily advances

+$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million transactions per day (US$799m advanced YTD vs US$566m in 2018)

Strong financial performance

>20% Y-o-Y LfL EBITDA growth LTM June 2019

Default rates

<1% Lowest default rates in the industry and the highest service penetration

Global presence

>25Presence across 4 continents and >25 countries (most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa) – six new deployments since May 2018

Increasingly

connected

populations

Rising

consumer

spending

Ai and hyper

decision-

making

Financial

Inclusion

Key investment themes

1.7 billion adults remain unbanked*

67%* of unbanked adults have access to a mobile phone

Channel VAS aims to provide the underbanked in emerging markets with

mobile access to financial services through impactful technologies

* The Global Findex Database 2017

Date of investment October 2018 % of EC Invested Capital 26%

Total Ethos ownership 17.5% (increasing to 20%) % of EC NAV 21%

EC Invested Capital R372m Current valuation R408m (1.14x TMB)

LTM Return +R53m (14%) Dividends received, valuation largely unchanged

Channel VAS update

10

Channel VAS provides Airtime Credit Services and Mobile Financial Services to prepaid mobile subscribers through MNOs

LTM changein NAV:

+R53m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

21%

Page 12: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Date of investment October 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 13%

Total Ethos ownership 27.6% % of EC NAV: 11%

EC Invested Capital R185m Current valuation: R202m (1.10x TMB)

LTM Return +R9m (5%) Multiple unchanged, gearing benefit

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Constructing New Warehouse Facility ERP & WMS System

11

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Weak economic environment adversely impacted end customers

Service level challenges, recent improvements point to greenshoots

✓ Relatively strong financial performance in a difficult market, focus on new product strategies to drive growth

✓ COO appointed

✓ Full strategy review & operating model re-assessment completed

✓ Operational projects to improve service levels and enhance efficiencies

o New Warehouse and IT systems

✓ All the above projects to be funded by internally generated cashflows

✓ Delivered 1st B-BBEE rating in FY2018. This year rating was enhanced the business achieved a Level 4 rating

“1 Box”

- Increased pallet locations

- Warehousing, picking mezz & branding

Allows Kevro to consolidate into one site;

expected to drive efficiencies

Integrate Ops & Systems

- Enhance inventory management

- Improve quality of BI in support of

decision-making processes

Kevro update

LTM changein NAV:

+R9m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

11%

Page 13: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Weak advertising market (industry radio and outdoor advertising spend both down YoY)

Most corporate advertising budgets have been cut

Lower occupancy in static billboards offset to some extent by the performance of digital billboards

✓ Relatively strong financial performance given difficult operating conditions

✓ Market share gains in broadcasting limited the revenue decline

✓ Significant investment (LTM and going forward) in digital billboards

✓ Sold SK Entertainment (proceeds used to repay debt)

✓ Unbundled SK Theatres (movies business) to shareholders, new Chairman, CEO and CFO

✓ Strategic review and operating model changes in SKT resulted in significant improvement in YoY profitability

Digitization of Outdoor billboards

Market share

Growth in radio market share in broadcasting

was a significant positive in 2019

Strategic re-focus

Sold SKE and unbundled SKT to create a

focussed broadcasting and outdoor

advertising business

Capital expenditure in digitising billboards and creating “new age” solutions for advertisers showing good momentum

Primedia update

Date of investment December 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 12% (including SKT)

Total Ethos ownership 19.9% + 5.0% (EC) % of EC NAV: 10% (including SKT)

EC capital investment R172m Current valuation: R194m (1.13x TMB)

LTM Return +R6m Primedia largely flat, SKT value increase

LTM changein NAV:

+R6m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

10%

Page 14: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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Growth in Africa’s data consumption

+42 %

Market opportunity

$9.9bn The B2B service market is growing faster than any other segment of ICT in SSA

Growth in FTTX connections

x3SSA severely underserved outside SA; FTTX connections projected to grow three-fold to 2020

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Delayed implementation of Gondwana acquisition primarily due to regulatory challenges – likely to close in October 2019

✓ Strong growth year on year with increased market share

✓ Appointed Group CFO and Head of Product Innovation

✓ Business successfully delivered its 1st B-BBEE rating under the ICT Codes and obtained a level 4 rating

✓ Investment in new sales force - strong momentum in delivering against sales targets (87% of target achieved in 6 months)

✓ Strategic review and operational model assessment project being scoped and will be completed by end January 2020

✓ Strong acquisition targets pipeline:

– Zambia

– Kenya

SSA presence

Countries

CAGR to 2021

13

Echo update

Date of investment February 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 11%

Total Ethos ownership 31% (inc. to >65%) % of EC NAV: 9%

EC Invested Capital R26m (+R152m) Current valuation: R28m (1.07x TMB)

LTM Return +R2m (+7%) Effectively held at cost of investment

LTM changein NAV:

+R2m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

9%

Page 15: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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Healthy M&A pipeline across

various geographies

1x acquisition completed,

additional opportunities being assessed

Synerlytic Lab footprint Agent labs

Ai capabilities

14

13

SSA & MEI presence

Countries

Significant barriers to entry

Holds globally applicable

accreditations

Already processing 5% of samples

using recently developed algorithms

South Africa

Namibia

Pakistan

DRCGhana

Mozambique

Angola

Botswana Zimbabwe

Zambia

Ivory Coast

IndiaUAE

Synerlytic update

Date of investment April 2019 % of EC Invested Capital: 7%

Total Ethos ownership 93.4% % of EC NAV: 5%

EC Invested Capital R92m Current valuation: R105m (1.14x TMB)

LTM Return +R13m (14%) Multiple unchanged, EBITDA growth (head office savings)

LTM changein NAV:

R13m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

5%

Page 16: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Weak consumer environment, post-paid up-trade cycle getting longer

Geopolitical impacts (Huawei volume sell through impacted by US-China trade war)

✓ Relatively strong financial performance given difficult operating conditions

✓ Finalising appointment of CFO

✓ Appointed Independent Non-Executive Chairman

✓ Business successfully delivered its 1st B-BBEE rating under the ICT Codes and obtained a level 4 rating

✓ Increasing the proportion of exclusive customers to total customers

✓ In-store incentive app launched to leverage capacity of non-Gammatek staff

✓ Strategic review and operational model assessment project underway

Geographic expansion options

Poised to increase market share

Key competitor recently filed for business

rescue

New channels targeted

Assessing bolt-on acquisitions to

diversify channel and products

beyond the core (e.g. Audio)

Exploring market entry strategies for East Africa and models to supply into other international markets

Gammatek update

Date of investment September 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 6%

Total Ethos ownership 51.0% % of EC NAV: 5%

EC capital investment R98m Current valuation: R98m (1.0x TMB)

LTM Return R0m Held at cost of investment

LTM changein NAV:

-

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

5%

Page 17: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CARDIO-

VASCULARORTHO SURGERYWOUND

CARENEUROLOGY BLOOD

DISEASE

DIAGNOSTIC

SOLUTIONS

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

✓ Strong growth year on year through increased market share, new products and acquisition-led growth

✓ Appointed new CEO with strong technology background

✓ Strong Ai potential both in terms of new business growth but also product utilisation and differentiation

✓ Strong acquisition pipeline with new acquisition opportunities well advanced

✓ Significant investment in IT systems to facilitate platform consolidation and roll out

✓ Potential for ex-South Africa growth is significant

16

Vertice update

Date of investment May 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 4%

Total Ethos ownership >75% % of EC NAV: 3%

EC Invested Capital R58m Current valuation: R61m (1.05x TMB)

LTM Return +R3m (+5%) Effectively held at cost of investment

Established

uniquely

skilled

distribution

Biotech

Infotech

convergence

Technology

platform

and scale

AI and Data

Science

LTM changein NAV:

+R3m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

3%

Page 18: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

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60

80

100

120

12 month share price analysis

c.50% INCREASE IN SHARE PRICE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• New management team in place

• “BRIGHT” Strategy fully adopted and being implemented Strategic Initiatives on course:

Share price lagging strong operation performance

Business remains susceptible to external policy, regulatory shocks

✓ Travelstart exited and Jumia listed on NYSE

✓ Mascom exit in progress (subject to regulatory approvals), MTN Cyprus (exited) and MTN Ghana Listed.

✓ MTN Nigeria Listed. Move to underpin stability with regulators and other local authorities

✓ Governance enhanced with establishment of senior advisory council and re-instatement of in-country VP’s across the footprint

✓ Options being explored re Tower assets (could unlock c. R20bn for MTN)

17

MTN Zakhele Futhi update

Date of investment July 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 3%

Total Ethos ownership 4.1% % of EC NAV: 2%

EC Invested Capital R43m Current valuation: R41m (0.96x TMB)

LTM Return -R2m (-2%) Marked to market off MTN share price

LTM changein NAV:

-R2m

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

2%

Page 19: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

18

50%+

Smartphone

use in SA

Financial

inclusionDisruptive

technology

AI and hyper

decision-

making

80% of customers underserved*

Highly attractive South African banking sector

* FinScope South Africa 2015, 2016 and 2017 consumer surveys. “Adequately served” defined as individuals having a balanced portfolio of products that are suited specifically to their financial wants and needs

- Unique and exclusive distribution platform through Pick n Pay and Boxer stores

with proprietary access to rich consumer data

- Industry leading, low cost operational platform

- Established and operational cloud-based technology platform operating at scale

- Reputable, experienced team with ability to scale the platform globally

Large distribution footprint

14kKiosks in 700+ stores with Tyme ambassadors, and access to cash at 14,000+ till points

Compelling low cost proposition

R32 Half the cost of lowest cost banking competitor

Attractive financial dynamics

25%Technology and business model designed to attain industry leading cost-to income ratio

Behavioural products

✓Products designed using behavioural economics promoting responsible and inclusive access to banking

Proven acquisition model

770k>770,000 customers signed up since launch in November 2018

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Date of investment June 2019 % of EC Invested Capital: 3%

Total Ethos ownership 8% % of EC NAV: 2%

EC Invested Capital R46m Current valuation: R46m (1.0x TMB)

LTM Return R0m Held at cost of investment

LTM changein NAV:

-

% of Ethos Capital NAV:

2%

18

Page 20: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Performance of selected portfolio companiesP

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AUTOMOTIVE PARTS RETAILER &

WHOLESALERFMCG INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT

Date of investment Dec 2016 Dec 2016 Dec 2016

% of Ethos Capital NAV 2% 4% 2%

Current value R40m (-R46m YoY) R74m (-R9m YoY) R34m (-R12m YoY)

LTM Return / TMB -54% / 0.51x -11% / 0.89x -26% / 0.64x

NON CONTROLLABLES (INDUSTRY)

Consumer sector

USD:ZAR

Consumer sector

USD:ZAR

Pulp price (global commodity)

Construction sector

Eskom: long-term contracts ending

CONTROLLABLES Poor category planning and inventory

management

Significant operational inefficiencies Over-capacitation

ETHOS FOCUS OVER LTM

o Strategic review and reset

o C-suite capacitation

o Cost savings (R64m - closure of non performing

stores)

o Debt restructure

o Strategic review and reset

o New CEO

o C-suite capacitation

o Cost savings (R53m – operational efficiency)

o Debt restructure

o Strategic review and reset

o New CEO

o C-suite capacitation

o Cost savings (R39m – S189 & cost controls)

o Debt restructure

CURRENT OUTLOOK

✓ Recovery plan in place with significant budgeted

y-o-y growth in EBITDA driven by rationalisation

of store footprint, leadership augmentation and

enhanced inventory management

✓ Significant traction on improving OEEs;

saleable volumes ahead of budget

✓ Positive momentum in run rate

✓ Successfully diversifying away from

construction; Good growth in new industry

verticals; construction = 54% of revenue at

acquisition vs. 45% currently

Page 21: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Retail

Convenience

FMCG

Manufacturing

Logistics

Financial Services

Business Services

ICT

Telecommunication Services

Technology Enablers

Medtech

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20

LSM migration-led growth in consumer

goods

Growing connectivity and data access

Lowest cost-to-serve, scalable

businesses

High impact, differentiated services

Technology-driven disruption to

“business as usual”

Transportable business models scaling

across countries

Key themes Recent investments Most likely sectors

Page 22: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CO

NT

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Introduction

Portfolio overview

Valuation overview

Liquidity analysis

21

Outlook

Page 23: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

22

Portfolio composition Key valuation metrics

* Share price as at 30 June, 2019

2.28 1.31

9.06 10.03

7.80

80% 88%

31%

30 Jun 19 Adjusted 30 Jun 19

Cash Invested Capital Share price

% of NAVPS % of NAVPS NAV discount

NAV

11.34

6.9x

1.9x

31%

31%

30.9%

30.9%

31.0%

31.0%

31.1%

31.1%

31.2%

31.2%

31.3%

-

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

7.0x

8.0x

EV / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA Discount to NAV Discount to peer group

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Page 24: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

11.34

2.28

9.06 5.0x

1.9x

6.9x

NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation

7.80

2.28

5.52 2.9x

1.9x

4.8x

NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation

Portfolio valued at a 31% discount to the peer group... .....market “look-through” values portfolio at 4.8x EV / EBITDA

NA

V B

AS

ED

VA

LU

AT

ION

SH

AR

E

BA

SE

D V

AL

UA

TIO

N*

Peer group

company

valuations

Ethos portfolio

company

valuations

Implied market

company

valuations

100

69

48

31%

31%

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wMarket implied valuation analysis

23* Share price as at 30 June, 2019

Page 25: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

137

851

297

55

4

6

5

2

<= 4.5x > 4.5x - <= 5.5x > 5.5x - <= 6.5x > 6.5x

Value - R'm Number

173

465

175

5275

3

3

6

<= -10% > -10% - <= 0% > 0% - <= 15% > 15%

Value - R'm Number

EBITDA growth by company

443

291 296 270

40

3

3 82

1

<= 0x > 0x - <= 1.5x > 1.5x - <= 3x > 3x - <= 4.5x > 4.5x

Value - R'm Number

393

201269

477

4

4

6

3

<= 0% > 0% - <= 5% > 5% - <= 15% > 15%

Value - R'm Number

Sales growth by company Net debt / EBITDA by company

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an

ce

Growth rates and market implied EV / LTM EBITDA multiples of the portfolio

Market implied EV / EBITDA by company

24

Page 26: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

1.71x

1.54x

1.38x

1.15x 1.14x 1.14x 1.11x 1.10x 1.08x 1.07x 1.05x1.00x 1.00x

0.96x0.92x 0.89x

0.73x0.64x

0.51x

4.0 1.6 5.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 0.9 1.9 6.9 4.3 4.3 3.4 4.5

Eaton SterKinekor

RTT Chibuku ChannelVas

Synerlytic Bevco Kevro Primedia Echotel Vertice TymeBank Gammatek MTN Waco Twinsaver Neopak Eazi Autozone

Fund VI Mid Market Fund Mezzanine Fund Direct investment/Ai

Age of investment in years

Positive value contribution

New assets at cost

Negative value contribution

Po

rt

fo

lio

c

om

pa

ny

p

er

fo

rm

an

ce

Portfolio company returns

25

Page 27: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CO

NT

EN

TS

Introduction

Portfolio overview

Valuation overview

Liquidity analysis

26

Outlook

Page 28: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Ethos Capital commitment to underlying fund (Rm)

6

360

1

211

887

54

12

1,531

141 950 48 250 1,250 150 371 3,161

EF VI EMMF I EHP EMP 3 EF VII EaiF I Direct Investments Total

Invested/Committed Undrawn commitments

Cu

rr

en

t

Fu

nd

c

om

mit

me

nt

sFund commitments and levels of undrawn capital by Fund

27

Page 29: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

173%

139%125%

109%

126%

163%

Harbourvest Hg APAX Princess Pantheon Ethos Capital

48% 50%

63%

44%

59% 58%

Harbourvest Hg APAX Princess Pantheon Ethos Capital

Total commitment ratio = (Invested Capital + Undrawn Commitments) / Net Asset Value

Commitment coverage ratio = (Cash + Unutilised Debt Facilities) / Undrawn Commitments

Re

la

tiv

e

liq

uid

it

y

be

nc

hm

ar

ks

Ethos Capital liquidity benchmarked against international peers

28

Page 30: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

32%

19%19%

19%

12%

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243,161

2,853

339

308

1,452

493

500

69

537

365293

1,514

2,143

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Totalcommitments

Fees adj Netcommitments

Investedcapital

Current cash Debt facility Treasuryshares

Commitmentgap

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Realisations Existing outflows Available liquidity

* Available liquidity = Cash plus Debt Facility less Net Investment outflows / Realisation inflows

Av

aila

ble

liq

uid

it

y

an

d

ou

tlo

ok

Liquidity profile analysis based on current commitments

Estimated

outflows

by year

29

Page 31: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

Discount to NAV 3 Year NAV Growth

Average = 18%

Average = 36%

2x

Re

la

tiv

e

sh

ar

e

pr

ic

e

to

N

AV

d

is

co

un

tSouth African listed PE firms trade at 2x the discount of international peers

30

Page 32: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

CO

NT

EN

TS

Introduction

Portfolio overview

Valuation overview

Liquidity analysis

31

Outlook

Page 33: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

Unlikely to be any short term improvement in business confidence and corporate investment

Outside of South Africa, growth remains strong although currency and political risks remain elevated

Growth in NAV likely to increase as the portfolio is c.80% invested

Investment pipeline remains strong but given the market conditions and lack of competition, focus remains on being extremely selective on deals

Liquidity management remains a key focus but Board remains focused on ways to enhance shareholder value

Board continues to assess strategic options that could unlock value for shareholders

Ou

tlo

ok

Outlook

32

Page 34: 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - Ethos Capital · w Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Daily advances +$5m +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million

DISCLAIMERTHE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT, AND MAY NOT BE RELIED ON IN ANY MANNER AS, LEGAL, TAX OR INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY AN INTEREST IN ANY OF THE

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AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUNDS WILL INVOLVE SIGNIFICANT RISKS, INCLUDING THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE INVESTMENT. THE FUNDS WILL BE ILLIQUID, AS THERE IS NO SECONDARY MARKET FOR INTERESTS IN THE FUNDS AND NONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RESTRICTIONS APPLY TO TRANSFERS AND

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WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT THE RISK CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FUNDS’ INVESTMENTS.

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MET. IN ADDITION, THERE CAN BE NO ASSURANCE THAT UNREALISED INVESTMENTS WILL BE REALISED AT THE VALUATIONS SHOWN AS ACTUAL. REALISED RETURNS WILL DEPEND ON, AMONG OTHER FACTORS, FUTURE OPERATING RESULTS, THE VALUE OF THE ASSETS AND MARKET CONDITIONS AT THE

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EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE INDICATED HEREIN, THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON MATTERS AS THEY EXIST AS OF THE DATE OF PREPARATION OF THIS PRESENTATION AND NOT AS OF ANY FUTURE DATE. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN WILL NOT BE UPDATED OR OTHERWISE

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CERTAIN INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION CONSTITUTES “FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS,” WHICH CAN BE IDENTIFIED BY THE USE OF FORWARD-LOOKING TERMINOLOGY SUCH AS “MAY,” “WILL,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT,” “ANTICIPATE,” “TARGET,” “PROJECT,” “ESTIMATE,” “INTEND,”

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33