2020-02 ad hoc committee
TRANSCRIPT
Ad Hoc Committee on Organizational Sustainability and Innovation
February 6, 2020
Enrollment Growth Update
Enrollment Growth is Neither a First Resort nor a Sole Solution
• Tuition increases must be mitigated
• Cost cutting must continue, but it becomes more challenging
• New revenue streams should be pursued
Discussions with Stakeholders• Faculty Assembly
• City Council
• Neighborhood Leaders
Changes & Challenges Lie Ahead• The traditional college-going population is shifting
• Flat or declining populations of college-going students will increase competition
• Opportunities may exist beyond the traditional undergraduate population
600150
4more new students per year over a
-year timeframe
more undergraduates by scaling up to
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
∆ in
Enr
ollin
g Co
hort
of 4
Yea
rs P
rior
Growth Over 4 Years in Enrolling Full-Time Cohorts at Top-50 Universities
25th-75th Pctl. Median
Growth over 4 Years in New Students at Top-50 Universities
Capacity to Support Greater Enrollment
91
135
34
148
202
454
718
509
12.33 12.2612.43
12.2412.15
11.77
11.40
11.70
0
200
400
600
800
10
11
12
13
14
Fall 11 Fall 12 Fall 13 Fall 14 Fall 15 Fall 16 Fall 17 Fall 18
Addi
tiona
l Enr
ollm
ent C
apac
ity w
ithin
12-
to-1
Stud
ent-t
o-Fa
culty
Rat
io
Capacity via Tech-Talent Initiative• $1.4 million in state support to W&M
• Capital support for expansion of ISC 4
• Growth from 62 computer science majors per year (2019 baseline) to 121 per year in 10 years
Va. Public University Enrollment Trends
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%NSU VSU RU UVA-W LU CNU ODU W&M UMW VCU VMI UVA JMU VT GMU
∆ In
-Sta
te H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent,
2013
-201
8
Source: Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)
Change in In-State Undergraduate Enrollment, 2013 to 2018
Va. Public University Enrollment Trends
Demographic Context
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
2021
-22
2022
-23
2023
-24
2024
-25
2025
-26
2026
-27
2027
-28
2028
-29
2029
-30
2030
-31
2031
-32
Mill
ions
Source:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
Projected U.S. High School Graduates
Decline Nationally
4
+20.7% -0.2% -7.4%+3.7%
Decline Nationally
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
2021
-22
2022
-23
2023
-24
2024
-25
2025
-26
2026
-27
2027
-28
2028
-29
2029
-30
2030
-31
2031
-32
Source:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
Projected Virginia High School Graduates
Decline in Virginia
5
+25.7% -0.3% -5.6%+6.7%
Decline in Virginia
Demographic Shifts
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Hispanic White African
American/Black
Asian/Pacific
Islander
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
HS
Gra
du
ate
s
Source: Author’s calculations based on Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education,
Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
U.S. High School Graduates
2000-01 2015-16 2031-32
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Hispanic White African
American/Black
Asian/Pacific
Islander
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
HS
Gra
du
ate
s
Source: Author’s calculations based on Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education,
Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
Virginia High School Graduates
2000-01 2015-16 2031-32
Demographic Shifts
International Growth Flattening
7
271,318
450,322 444,823
563,697
866,303 861,902
5.0%
7.1% 7.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Perc
ent
of T
otal
Enr
ollm
ent
Stud
ents
Enr
olle
d
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment.
International Enrollment at U.S. 4-yr. Institutions
Undergraduate-Non-Resident Alien Graduate-Non-Resident Alien Non-Resident Aliens (%)
International Growth Flattening
Near-Term Enrollment Growth Strategies
2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
Optimize Grant Aid Allocation for Out-of-State Admits
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
8
The Funnel• 250,000 students receive search communication
(50,000 Sr search, 200,000 soph/Jr)
• 70,000 students receive prospect mailing(prospects via search + contacts via visits, travel,
fairs, web etc)
• 14,500+ Applicants
• 5,000+Admits
1,545 Enrolling 1,534 Enrolling (Fall 2019)
The Admission Funnel
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15
Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15
Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15
Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15
Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15
Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
Enhance Marketing and Communications
Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15
Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15
Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20
Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20
Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10
Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15
Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15
Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40
ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150
• Application fee waivers
• Test-optional admission process
• Restructuring of financial-aid tiers
• Expansion of honors programs (e.g., Monroe Scholars)
Longer-Term Possibilities with Implications for Applicant Pool
Next Steps• Completion of enrollment modeling by Maguire
Associates
• Brand platform and marketing assessment by SimpsonScarborough
• Strategic investment to optimize marketing function
• Refinement of costs and implications for net tuition revenue
Questions?