lleidadownloads.gvcgaesco.es/analisis/companias/junio/lln.pdf · 2020-06-12 · lleida.net page 2...
TRANSCRIPT
Produced by:
Distributed by Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report.
All ESN research is available on Bloomberg, “RESP ESNR”, Thomson-Reuters, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet
Lleida.net
Sponsored Research
Investment Research Spain | Software & Computer Services Company Update Reason: Estimates revision 12 June 2020
Key financials (EUR) 12/18 12/19 12/20e
Sales (m) 12 14 19
EBITDA (m) 2 2 3
EBITDA margin 13.6% 16.4% 17.2%
EBIT (m) 1 1 2
EBIT margin 4.3% 8.0% 10.9%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 0 1 2
ROCE 8.0% 15.0% 26.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 2 2 2
Net Debt Equity 0.8 0.5 0.5
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4 1.1 0.7
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 15.5 749.3 52.2
EV/Sales 1.4 1.3 2.7
EV/EBITDA 10.2 8.1 15.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.2 8.1 15.5
EV/EBIT 32.5 16.6 24.3
P/E (adj.) 35.9 14.8 32.1
P/BV 4.9 3.7 10.1
OpFCF yield 3.7% 4.9% 3.2%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
EPS (adj.) 0.03 0.07 0.09
BVPS 0.19 0.27 0.30
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.01
Shareholders
Francisco Sapena Soler (Founder) 41%; SEPI Desarrollo Empresarial * 7%; Cántabro Catalana de Inversiones 7%;
Analyst(s)
Juan Peña
+34 91 436 78 16
Recogiendo los frutos del trabajo
2020 está siendo un año de profunda transformación para Lleida.net. Si ya
antes de la crisis del Covid-19 su actividad estaba siendo sobresaliente con
numerosos contratos firmados, nuevas patentes y desarrollos, la pandemia
mundial ha hecho que la compañía experimente un crecimiento muy
significativo de sus ventas en los servicios SaaS (notificación y contratación
electrónica principalmente).
Esta situación ha hecho transformar completamente el horizonte de la
compañía en el medio plazo ya que, si ya en nuestro informe de noviembre de
2019 destacábamos el alto potencial de sus negocios la situación actual ha
cambiado el perfil de crecimiento de la compañía en sus diferentes negocios.
En el negocio SaaS (26% de las ventas 2019), el mercado potencial se ha
multiplicado tras la pandemia mundial. La demanda de servicios de
notificación y contratación electrónica se ha disparado y, lejos de ser algo
temporal, el aumento del teletrabajo y la necesidad de muchas empresas de
certificar sus comunicaciones a distancia harán que la oportunidad de
crecimiento sea notable. En nuestro informe inicial cifrábamos en EUR9bn el
mercado potencial a nivel mundial hasta 2025, la compañía estima que este
potencial es hoy 5x superior. Ya en el primer trimestre el crecimiento de esta
línea fue del +39%, con un impacto limitado del Covid-19. Asimismo hemos
observado la firma de numerosos contratos durante este primer trimestre como
la Liga de Fútbol Profesional, Zurich Seguros o Segurcaixa Adeslas, entre otros.
En el negocio de Soluciones SMS (19% ventas 2019) se ha observado una
ralentización ya que gran parte de la actividad de marketing de las compañías
se ha paralizado o pospuesto. Este negocio tuvo una caída del -7% en el primer
trimestre y se espera una ligera caída para los próximos años.
En el negocio de interconexión Wholesale, los acuerdos alcanzados durante
el año con Etisalat o los firmados con China Mobile, o China Telecom a finales
de 2019 han permitido obtener un crecimiento muy significativo en el primer
trimestre (+72%) y reafirman el alto potencial de la compañía en este segmento.
En base a todo esto, hemos actualizado nuestras estimaciones intentando
encontrar un equilibrio entre el masivo crecimiento observado durante los
últimos meses y una predictibilidad de ingresos en el medio plazo una vez
que este primer impulso inicial se suavice.
La compañía ha dado un salto transformacional en los últimos meses desde
nuestro informe inicial en el que los buenos resultados apenas se empezaban
a mostrar. En la actualidad, el crecimiento es una realidad y el futuro se
vislumbra halagüeño ya que las transformaciones sociales y empresariales que
se van a ver derivadas del Covid-19 van a sacudir los cimientos de muchas
empresas y sectores y compañías que faciliten y aseguren los contactos a
distancia (de cualquier tipo) van a ser muy demandadas.
Por tanto, hemos incrementado nuestro precio objetivo hasta los EUR3.28,
con un potencial de un 9% sobre precios actuales. El rally vivido por la acción
en las últimas semanas creemos que ha alcanzado niveles razonables por lo
que rebajamos nuestra recomendación a ACUMULAR cuando haya
correcciones.
Lleida.net
Page 2
En el lugar adecuado, en el momento preciso
La actual situación de Lleida.net es fruto del trabajo realizado durante los últimos años en tecnologías de certificación y de numerosas patentes que en un contexto como el actual se han demostrado necesarias.
Como hemos comentado, el inicio de año ya estaba siendo muy positivo para la compañía como podemos observar en el gráfico presentado por la compañía acerca del número de circuitos contratados:
Estos circuitos son los que se utilizan para el producto Click&Sign y como vemos, la evolución durante las 11 primeras semanas del año ya estaba siendo muy positiva con un incremento de casi el 100% sobre el año anterior. Durante las primeras semanas de confinamiento este crecimiento se elevó a más del 300%.
Adicionalmente, el número de empresas con los cuales se han ido firmando contratos de notificación y certificación electrónica ha crecido significativamente en las últimas semanas con contratos con los servicios postales de Sudáfrica, Colombia o Zambia, con las empresas de alquiler de coches Alphabet España y ALD Automotive o con Ibercaja para la notificación de sus saldos deudores.
En el primer trimestre el crecimiento de ingresos de estos servicios fue del +38%, nuestra estimación para 2020e arroja un crecimiento del 70% aproximadamente para este tipo de servicios dada la aceleración que se verá a partir del segundo trimestre. En el medio plazo este crecimiento bajaría hasta el +45% en 2021e y +35% en 2022e, ya que pensamos que esta tendencia vista en estos meses continuará creciendo con fuerza.
Si observamos por ejemplo el crecimiento de los usuarios de correo electrónico certificado, comprobamos el repunte del gap vs 2019 en las últimas semanas con información:
Lleida.net
Page 3
Lo mismo observamos en los clientes de SMS certificado y en el total de usuarios como vemos en los dos gráficos a continuación:
En cuanto a la línea de negocio de SMS Solutions, dada la paralización casi total de la economía durante el mes de abril y la drástica reducción de los gastos de marketing y publicidad de muchas compañías, la actividad se ha reducido, tendencia que se ha acelerado ya que la situación previa era de ligera caída (-6.6% en el Q120, -6.1% en FY19). Nuestras estimaciones para los próximos años arrojan caídas de entre el -3% y el -5% anuales, continuando con la tendencia observada.
Por último el negocio de interconexión wholesale, que supone más de un 50% de los ingresos totales de la compañía, también está observando un gran crecimiento. Es la línea de negocio con menor margen pero sirve para mantener una actividad recurrente. El ser una compañía con licencia de operador de telecomunicaciones, es un gran activo que la compañía está explotando de manera notable Los acuerdos de finales de 2019 con China Mobile y China Telecom han dado un gran impulso a la facturación (crecimiento del +71% en Q120). A estos acuerdos se suma el alcanzado con el operador Etisalat a principios de 2020 y a la aprobación como operador de telecomunicaciones en Chile. Nuestras estimaciones para los años siguientes muestran unos crecimientos anuales de más del 40% en 2020e y del 33% para 2021e siendo la mitad de la facturación de la compañía para 2023e gracias al crecimiento de los servicios SaaS.
En cuanto a la rentabilidad de la compañía consideramos que el margen EBITDA de la compañía será ligeramente superior al de 2019 ya que el incremento de la actividad wholesale se verá compensada por una mayor actividad en Saa, con un mayor margen. En el medio plazo el creciente peso de los servicios SaaS sobre el total de ingresos hará ue el margen vaya creciendo, pero en menor medida cada año ya que consideramos que la comoditización de los servicios de certificación y el incremento de la competencia hará reducir los márgenes de esta línea de negocio.
2.25
3.27
4.48
5.54
6.59
16.5%
17.2%
17.8%18.0%
18.5%
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e
EBITDA & EBITDA margin (M€; %)
EBITDA EBITDA margin
Lleida.net
Page 4
Balance saneado
Uno de los principales puntos positivos que tiene la compañía es su estructura de balance, que cuenta con una deuda neta muy baja (alrededor de 0.5x DN/EBITDA), lo cual le permitiría acometer alguna operación de M&A si surgiera la oportunidad sin comprometer su solvencia financiera.
Asimismo la generación de caja es robusta y para el ejercicio 2020 se ha aprobado el primer dividendo de la historia de la compañía (EUR0.01/acción neto).
DCF
Nuestro DCF nos otorga un precio objetivo de EUR3.28/acción con una WACC del 10.5% y una g=3%. Dicha valoración nos ofrece un EV/EBITDA terminal de 10.2x y un peso del valor terminal en la valoración del 86.9%.
LLEIDA.NET. DCF VALUATION CONSIDERING ONLY ORGANIC GROWTH
CASH FLOW (EURm) 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2022e VR
Sales 9.925 12.386 13.715 19.039 25.266 30.784 35.663 36.733
% change 24.8% 10.7% 38.8% 32.7% 21.8% 15.8% 3.0%
Adj. EBITDA 1.347 1.681 2.248 3.270 4.478 5.537 6.587 6.979
% change 24.7% 33.8% 45.5% 36.9% 23.6% 19.0% 6.0%
Adj. EBITDA M. 13.6% 13.6% 16.4% 17.2% 17.7% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0%
DDA -1.078 -1.152 -1.147 -1.194 -1.268 -1.236 -1.145 -1.145
EBIT 0.269 0.528 1.101 2.076 3.210 4.301 5.442 5.834
Effective tax rate 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
NOPLAT 0.266 0.522 1.088 1.557 2.408 3.226 4.081 4.376
Depreciation&other provisions 1.078 1.152 1.147 1.194 1.268 1.236 1.145 1.145
Gross Operating Cash Flow 1.344 1.674 2.235 2.751 3.675 4.461 5.227 5.521
Capex -1.207 -1.101 -0.960 -0.933 -0.867 -0.739 -0.599 -0.367
Capex/sales 12.2% 8.9% 7.0% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Change in Net Working Capital 0.299 0.080 -0.486 -0.226 -0.737 -0.664 -0.509 0.000
Cash Flow to be discounted 0.436 0.653 0.789 1.592 2.071 3.058 4.119 5.153
DCF VALUATION (EUR m)
WACC 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Discount Rate factor 1.00 0.91 0.82 0.74 0.67
Discounted Cash Flow 1.592 1.875 2.506 3.056
Cumulated DCF 1.592 3.467 5.974 9.029
WACC & DCF ANALYSIS
Free Risk Rate (10y Govn. Bonds) 3.5% Cumulated DCF 5.974 - Net Financial Debt (20e) 2.3
Company Risk Factor or Beta 2.0 Perpetual Growth Rate (g) 3.0% - Minorities (estimated value) 0.0
Mkt Risk Premium 5.0% Normalised Annual CF 5.153 + Associates 0.0
Cost of Equity (Ke or COE) 13.5% Terminal Value at Nominal Year 71.130 - Pension underfunding 0.0
Cost of Debt (gross) 2.0% Disc. Rate of Terminal Value 0.67 - Off-balance sheet commitm. 0.0
Debt Tax Rate 25.0% Discounted Terminal Value 47.774
Cost of Debt net (kd or COD) 1.5% Equity Market Value (EUR m) 52.7
Target Gearing (D/E) or % Kd 25% Financial assets 1.20 Number of shares (m) 16.0
% Ke 75% Enterprise Value (EURm) 54.9 Fair Value per share (EUR) 3.28Normative Tax Rate 25% Price (EUR) 3.020
WACC 10.5% Potential upside (downside) 9%
Source: GVC Gaesco Valores Estimates
Lleida.net
Page 5
Lleida.net: Summary tables
Lleida.net
Page 6
Lleida.net: Summary tables
Sector: Software & Computer Services/Software & Computer Services
Company Description: Lleida.net is the First Registering Operator, a leading Telecom company specialised in the field of registered communications, aiming at providing companies, public administrations and private users with secure, trustworthy, efficient and profitable electronic communications that will directly help to improve their results.
Lleida.net
Page 7
European Coverage of the Members of ESN
Aerospace & Defense Mem(*) Tubacex GVC Marr BAK Industrial Transportation Mem(*)
Airbus Se CIC Chemicals Mem(*) Sonae CBI Bollore CIC
Avio BAK Air Liquide CIC General Industrials Mem(*) Clasquin IAC
Dassault Aviation CIC Arkema CIC Adl Bionatur Solutions GVC Ctt CBI
Figeac Aero CIC Plasticos Compuestos GVC Cembre BAK Insurance Mem(*)
Latecoere CIC Electronic & Electrical Eq. Mem(*) Sergeferrari Group CIC Axa CIC
Leonardo BAK Rexel CIC General Retailers Mem(*) Catalana Occidente GVC
Lisi CIC Fin. Serv. Holdings Mem(*) Emova Group IAC Cattolica Assicurazioni BAK
Safran CIC Cir BAK Fnac Darty CIC Generali BAK
Thales CIC Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Inditex GVC Mapfre GVC
Alternative Energy Mem(*) Digital Magics BAK Maisons Du Monde CIC Net Insurance BAK
Encavis Ag CIC Eurazeo CIC Ovs BAK Unipolsai BAK
Plc BAK Ffp CIC Unieuro BAK Materials, Construction Mem(*)
Siemens Gamesa Re GVC Rallye CIC Healthcare Mem(*) Acs GVC
Voltalia CIC Tip Tamburi Investment Partners BAK Abionyx Pharma CIC Aena GVC
Automobiles & Parts Mem(*) Wendel CIC Amplifon BAK Astaldi BAK
Brembo BAK Fin. Serv. Industrials Mem(*) Atrys Health GVC Astm BAK
Faurecia CIC Bolsas Y Mercados Espanoles GVC Crossject CIC Atlantia BAK
Ferrari BAK Dovalue BAK Diasorin BAK Buzzi Unicem BAK
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK Nexi BAK El.En. BAK Capelli CIC
Gestamp GVC Tinexta BAK Fermentalg CIC Cementir BAK
Indelb BAK Financial Services Banks Mem(*) Fine Foods BAK Clerhp Estructuras GVC
Landi Renzo BAK Amundi CIC Genfit CIC Eiffage CIC
Piaggio BAK Anima BAK Guerbet CIC Ezentis GVC
Pininfarina BAK Azimut BAK Korian CIC Fcc GVC
Plastic Omnium CIC Banca Farmafactoring BAK Oncodesign CIC Ferrovial GVC
Sogefi BAK Banca Generali BAK Orpea CIC Groupe Adp CIC
Banks Mem(*) Banca Ifis BAK Recordati BAK Groupe Poujoulat CIC
Banca Mps BAK Banca Mediolanum BAK Shedir Pharma BAK Groupe Sfpi S.A. CIC
Banco Sabadell GVC Banca Sistema BAK Theraclion CIC Herige CIC
Banco Santander GVC Finecobank BAK Household Goods Mem(*) Hexaom CIC
Bankia GVC Poste Italiane BAK Abeo CIC Imerys CIC
Bankinter GVC Food & Beverage Mem(*) De Longhi BAK Kaufman & Broad IAC
Bbva GVC Advini CIC Fila BAK Lafargeholcim CIC
Bcp CBI Bonduelle CIC Groupe Seb CIC Maire Tecnimont BAK
Bnp Paribas CIC Campari BAK Industrial Engineering Mem(*) Mota Engil CBI
Bper BAK Danone CIC Alstom CIC Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC
Caixabank GVC Ebro Foods GVC Biesse BAK Sacyr GVC
Credem BAK Enervit BAK Caf GVC Saint Gobain CIC
Credit Agricole Sa CIC Fleury Michon CIC Carraro BAK Salcef BAK
Creval BAK Italian Wine Brands BAK Cnh Industrial BAK Salini Impregilo BAK
Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Lanson-Bcc CIC Danieli BAK Sonae Industria CBI
Mediobanca BAK Laurent Perrier CIC Datalogic BAK Tarkett CIC
Natixis CIC Ldc CIC Exel Industries CIC Thermador Groupe CIC
Rothschild & Co CIC Orsero BAK Fincantieri BAK Vicat CIC
Societe Generale CIC Pernod Ricard CIC Groupe Gorge CIC Vinci CIC
Ubi Banca BAK Remy Cointreau CIC Haulotte Group CIC Media Mem(*)
Unicredit BAK Tipiak CIC Ima BAK Arnoldo Mondadori Editore BAK
Basic Resources Mem(*) Vidrala GVC Interpump BAK Atresmedia GVC
Acerinox GVC Vilmorin CIC Manitou CIC Cairo Communication BAK
Altri CBI Viscofan GVC Prima Industrie BAK Cofina CBI
Arcelormittal GVC Vranken Pommery Monopole CIC Prysmian BAK Digital Bros BAK
Corticeira Amorim CBI Food & Drug Retailers Mem(*) Talgo GVC Digitouch BAK
Ence GVC Carrefour CIC Zardoya Otis GVC Gedi Gruppo Editoriale BAK
Semapa CBI Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC Gl Events CIC
The Navigator Company CBI Jeronimo Martins CBI Il Sole 24 Ore BAK
Lleida.net
Page 8
Impresa CBI Merlin Properties GVC Nos CBI
Ipsos CIC Quabit Immobiliaria GVC Orange CIC
Jcdecaux CIC Realia GVC Telecom Italia BAK
Lagardere CIC Software & Computer Ser. Mem(*) Telefonica GVC
M6-Metropole Television CIC Agile Content GVC Tiscali BAK
Mediaset BAK Akka Technologies CIC Vodafone BAK
Mediaset Espana GVC Alten CIC Travel & Leisure Mem(*)
Nrj Group CIC Altran CIC Accor CIC
Publicis CIC Amadeus GVC Autogrill BAK
Rcs Mediagroup BAK Assystem CIC Beneteau CIC
Solocal Group CIC Atos CIC Codere GVC
Teleperformance CIC Axway Software CIC Compagnie Des Alpes CIC
Tf1 CIC Capgemini CIC Edreams Odigeo GVC
Ubisoft CIC Cast CIC Elior CIC
Vivendi CIC Catenon GVC Europcar CIC
Vogo CIC Econocom CIC Fdj CIC
Oil & Gas Producers Mem(*) Ekinops CIC Groupe Partouche IAC
Ecoslops CIC Esi Group CIC I Grandi Viaggi BAK
Enauta CBI Exprivia BAK Ibersol CBI
Eni BAK Gigas Hosting GVC Int. Airlines Group GVC
Galp Energia CBI Gpi BAK Melia Hotels International GVC
Gas Plus BAK Groupe Open CIC Nh Hotel Group GVC
Maurel Et Prom CIC Indra Sistemas GVC Pierre Et Vacances CIC
Repsol GVC Lleida.Net GVC Sodexo CIC
Total CIC Neurones CIC Sonae Capital CBI
Oil Services Mem(*) Reply BAK Trigano CIC
Bourbon CIC Sii CIC Utilities Mem(*)
Cgg CIC Sopra Steria Group CIC A2A BAK
Gtt CIC Visiativ CIC Acciona GVC
Rubis CIC Worldline CIC Acea BAK
Saipem BAK Support Services Mem(*) Albioma CIC
Technipfmc Plc CIC Bureau Veritas CIC Audax GVC
Tecnicas Reunidas GVC Cellnex Telecom GVC Derichebourg CIC
Tenaris BAK Edenred CIC Edp CBI
Vallourec CIC Enav BAK Edp Renováveis CBI
Personal Goods Mem(*) Fiera Milano BAK Enagas GVC
Basicnet BAK Inwit BAK Endesa GVC
Brunello Cucinelli BAK Openjobmetis BAK Enel BAK
Cellularline BAK Prosegur GVC Erg BAK
Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Prosegur Cash GVC Falck Renewables BAK
Geox BAK Rai Way BAK Greenalia GVC
Hermes Intl. CIC Technology Hardware & Eq. Mem(*) Hera BAK
Interparfums CIC Adeunis CIC Holaluz GVC
Kering CIC Evolis CIC Iberdrola GVC
L'Oreal CIC Hf Company CIC Iren BAK
Lvmh CIC Ingenico CIC Italgas BAK
Moncler BAK Memscap IAC Naturgy GVC
Safilo BAK Osmozis CIC Red Electrica Corporacion GVC
Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Stmicroelectronics BAK Ren CBI
Smcp CIC Tier 1 Technology GVC Snam BAK
Swatch Group CIC Telecommunications Mem(*) Solaria GVC
Technogym BAK Altice Europe CIC Terna BAK
Tod'S BAK Bouygues CIC
Real Estate Mem(*) Euskaltel GVC
Igd BAK Iliad CIC
Lar España GVC Masmovil GVC
LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banco de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Valores, SV, SA as 11th March 2020
Lleida.net
Page 9
List of ESN Analysts (**)
Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected]
Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected]
Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected]
Andrea Bonfà BAK +39 02 4344 4269 [email protected]
Jean-Baptiste Bouchet CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected]
Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected]
Nuno Castro CBI +351 21 389 68 39 [email protected]
Pierre Chédeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected]
Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected]
David Da Maia CIC +33 1 53 48 89 36 [email protected]
Dominique Descours CIC +33 1 53 48 81 12 [email protected]
Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected]
Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected]
Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected]
Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected]
Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected]
Pietro Gasparri, CIIA, CEFA BAK +39 02 4344 4238 [email protected]
Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected]
Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected]
Ebrahim Homani CIC +33 1 53 48 80 94 [email protected]
Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected]
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected]
Charles Henry Mata CIC +33 1 53 48 80 64 [email protected]
Marisa Mazo, Ph.D, CFA GVC +34 91 436 7817 [email protected]
Fanny Meindre, PhD CIC +33 1 53 48 80 84 [email protected]
Emanuele Oggioni BAK +39 0243 444 237 [email protected]
Jaime Pallares Garcia GVC +34 91 436 7818 [email protected]
Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]
Juan Peña GVC +34 91 436 78 16 [email protected]
Alexandre Plaud CIC +33 1 53 48 80 90 [email protected]
Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]
Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]
Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]
Beatriz Rodriguez Fernandez GVC +34 914 367 871 [email protected]
Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]
Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]
Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]
Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]
(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts
Lleida.net
Page 10
Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts of Interests and recommendation history available in our web page: www.valores.gvcgaesco.es and our offices
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by GVC Gaesco Valores S.V., S.A., from sources believed to be reliable (including accounts audited and published). This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell relevant securities. GVC Gaesco Valores S.V., S.A., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may derive from use of the present document or its contents, GVC Gaesco Valores S.V., S.A., can occasionally have positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation. Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between GVC Gaesco Valores S.V., S.A., and the mentioned companies.
As of the date of this report, GVC Gaesco Valores S.V., S.A.,
• acts as registered advisor, agent or liquidity provider for the following companies: AB Biotics; Catenon SA; Clever Global SA; Euroespes, S.A., Facephi Biometría SA., Griñó Ecologic SA, Lleidanetworks Serveis Telematics SA., NBI Bearings Europe S.A.; Trajano Iberia (Socimi), SA; Asgard Investment Hotels (antes Obsido Socimi SA); Eurona Telecom SA; Secuoya Grupo de Comunicación SA; Mercal Inmuebles (Socimi; Student Properties Spain (Socimi); Solaria Casiopea (bonos MARF); Atrys Health; Quonia (Socimi); TIER1 Technology; Excem Capital Partners Sociedad de Inversión Residencial (Socimi YEXR); Agile Content; Imaginarium; IFFE Futura, SA. ENCE Energia y Celulosa; Plásticos Compuestos SA; Clerhp Infraestructuras SA
• has participated and/or participates as lead or co-lead manager in corporate operations with the following companies: Clever Global SA; Dogi International Fabrics SA; Inypsa; Lleidanetworks Serveis Telematics SA, MasMovil Ibercom; Globasol (Solaria); ADL Bionatur Solutions; Plásticos Compuestos SA; Holaluz
• has, during the last year, performed a significant amount of business with: Bankia; Ferrovial, Codere.
• has a contractual relationship to provide financial services, through which GVC Gaesco Beka S.V.,S.A., executes orders on the treasury stocks of the following companies: CaixaBank S.A., Grupo Ezentis S.A; Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas S.A
• has a liquidity contract as outlined by the CNMV's Circular 1/2017 with: Melia Hotels International; Española de Viviendas en Alquiler S.A. (CEVASA); eDreams ODIGEO; ENCE Energia y Celulosa; Catalana Occidente
• has signed a Corporate Brokerage agreement that includes a contractually agreed provision of research services and in return, GVC Gaesco Valores receives a compensation. These reports have been or could have been previously shown to the companies: Agile Content; Atrys Health: Audax Renovables; Gigas Hosting; Catenon; Greenalia; Quabit Inmobiliaria; TIER1 Technology; ADL Bionatur Solutions; Lleidanetworks Serveis Telematics SA; Codere SA
Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows GVC Gaesco Valores continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst: Juan Peña (since 20/11/2019)
Lleida.net
Page 11
ESN Recommendation System
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated based on total
return, measured by the upside/downside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement)
over a 12-month time horizon. The final responsible of the recommendation of a listed company is the
analyst who covers that company. The recommendation and the target price set by an analyst on one
stock are correlated but not totally, because an analyst may include in its recommendation also
qualitative elements as market volatility, earning momentum, short term news flow, possible M&A
scenarios and other subjective elements.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories:
Buy (B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks
as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12-month
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12-month
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12-month
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12-month
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12-month
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to: a) a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, etc.) where a Member of ESN is or could be involved with the issuer or a related party of the issuer; b) a change of analyst covering the stock; c) the rating of a stock is under review by the Analyst.
Not Rated: there is no rating for a stock when there is a termination of coverage of the stocks or a company being floated (IPO) by a Member of ESN or a related party of the Member.
Note: a certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets
GVC Gaesco Valores, S.V., S.A.Ratings Breakdown
For full ESN Recommendation and Target price history (in the last 12 months) please see ESN Website Link
Date and time of production: 12th of june 2020 12:57 CET First date and time of dissemination: 12th of june 2020 13:01 CET
Lleida.net
Page 12
Disclaimer: These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained from various sources. ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, and neither ESN, nor its Members, nor its Members’ affiliates (nor any director, officer or employee thereof) shall be liable in respect of any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions. Neither the information contained in these reports nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities (‘related investments’). These reports are prepared for the professional clients of the Members of ESN only. They do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive any of these reports. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in these reports and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in these reports. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose value are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. ESN, its Members and their affiliates may submit a pre-publication draft (without mentioning neither the recommendation nor the target price/fair value) of its reports for review to the Investor Relations Department of the issuer forming the subject of the report, solely for the purpose of correcting any inadvertent material inaccuracies. Like all members employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability For further details about the analyst certification, the specific risks of the company and about the valuation wmethods used to determine the price targets included in this report/note, please refer to the specific disclaimer pages prepared by the ESN Members. In the case of a short note please refer to the latest relevant published research on single stock or contact the analyst named on the front of the report/note for detailed information on the valuation methods, earning estimates and risks. A full description of all the organisational and administrative measures taken by the Members of ESN to manage interest and conflicts of interest are available on the website of the Members or in the local disclaimer of the Members or contacting directly the Members. Research is available through the ESN Members sales representative. ESN and/or ESN Members will provide periodic updates on companies or sectors based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Unless agreed in writing with an ESN Member, this research is intended solely for internal use by the recipient. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into Australia, Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in Australia, Canada or Japan or to any resident thereof. This document is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and fall within article 19(5) of the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2005 (the “order”) or (ii) are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the order, namely high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted on or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. You shall indemnify ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) against any damages, claims, losses, and detriments resulting from or in connection with the unauthorized use of this document. For disclosure upon “conflicts of interest” on the companies under coverage by all the ESN Members, on the “interests” and “conflicts” of the analysts and on each “company recommendation history”, please visit the ESN website: (http://www.esnpartnership.eu/research_and_database_access) or refer to the local disclaimer of the Members, or contact directly the Members:
www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
www.cic-marketsolutions.eu regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers
www.valores.gvcgaesco.es regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores
Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)