@PerlTrish

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/28/chance-illnesses-after-covid-19-vaccinations-could-test-public-confidence-even-if-the-problems-are-unrelated/

COVID-19 Preven/on and VaccinesTrish M. Perl, MD, MSc

Professor of Medicine Chief, Division of Infectious Diseases

and Geographic MedicineTrish.Perl@UTSouthwestern.edu

Prevention of COVID-19

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccine-update-pfizer-may-be-the-frontrunner-but-canada-has-hedged-its-bets-149962

Types of COVID-19 Vaccines

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccine-update-pfizer-may-be-the-frontrunner-but-canada-has-hedged-its-bets-149962

Easy to design & manufacture, no other

vaccines in use, eg Pfizer, Moderna

Live virus tends to illicit very robust immune response, must pick

correct vector, ex include Ebola vaccine, eg J&J and

Oxford/AztraZeneca

Indirect Effect of Vaccina0on: Herd Immunity

https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines

Indirect Effect of Vaccination: Herd Immunity

https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines

Indirect Effect of Vaccina0on: Herd Immunity

https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines

Estimates are a population will need ~ 70% of individuals to be immune through vaccination or natural infection to achieve herd immunity

Operation Warp Speed

h>ps://media.defense.gov/2020/Aug/13/2002476369/-1/-1/0/200813-D-ZZ999-100.JPG

COVID-19 Vaccine: Phase 3 Trials Underway in the U.S.

Slide adapted from Dr. Reuben Arasaratnam; NYT Vaccine Tracker https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Phase 3 completeEUA granted

Phase 3 completeEUA granted

Oxford/Astra Zeneca

Johnson & Johnson

Pfizer

Moderna

Viral Vector Vaccine

mRNA Vaccine

❄

❄Phase 3 preliminary analysis

Phase 3 preliminary analysis

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

What Do We Know About the Vaccine Frontrunners?

Vaccine Mechanism of Action

Phase Efficacy Results Comments

Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA Phase 3 complete, EUA granted

95% efficacy after 170 cases, severe cases 9 placebo vs. 1 vaccine

Requires freezer for storage, efficacy over 94% in pts > 65 years, no safety concerns

Moderna mRNA Phase 3 complete, EUA granted

94.5% efficacy after 95 cases, severe cases 11 placebo vs. 0 vaccine

Stable at refrigerator temp x 30 days, no safety concerns

Oxford/Astra Zeneca

Chimp adenovirus vector

Phase 3 interim analysis

70% efficacy after 131 cases; 90% after half dose/full dose, 62% after 2 full doses

Less stability issues, but safety data remains open question

J & J Adenovirus vector

Phase 3 analysis Unknown Less stability issue, safety data pending, single dose

Side effects, contraindica/ons, special popula/ons

Vaccine # Doses Side effects Pregnancy

Immunosuppressed

Autoimmune

Pfizer/BioNTech

50 million 12/2020, 1.3 billion in 2021

Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, vomiting; bell’s palsy > after 2nddose

Minimal data; can be given

Minimal data; can be given

Minimal data; can be given

Moderna 20 million 12/2020, 80 million in 2021 (US)

Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, vomiting; bell’s palsy, allergic rnx; SE > after 2nd dose

Minimal data; can be given

Minimal data; can be given

Minimal data; can be given

Oxford/Astra Zeneca

3 billion in 2021

Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, nausea; Rare transverse myelitis

unknown unknown unknown

J & J 1 billion in 2021

Unknown Unknown unknown unknown

Reactogenicity: Comparison to Other Vaccines

Comparing Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines

h$ps://www.news10.com/news/pfizer-vs-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-whats-the-difference/18

Post-Vaccine Safety Surveillance

CDC VRBPAC Presentation Dr. Nancy Messioner 12/10/20

V-safe | AQer Vaccina/on Health Tracker

How Many People in the US Are in the Higher Priority Groups?

Theoretical Vaccine Distribution Timeline

Source: Robert M. Wachter, M.D., UCSF

CORONAVIRUSTRAVEL SENTIMENT

INDEX REPORT

Highlights on COVID-19 Vaccines Impact on Travel Sentiment

January 21st, 2021

METHODOLOGY•Weekly tracking survey of a representative sample of adult American travelers in each of four U.S. regions

•Designed to track traveler sentiment and generate insights into when tourism businesses can expect demand to return and from whom

•Week 45 data (fielded January 15-17) will be presented today

•1,200+ fully completed surveys collected each wave

•Confidence interval of +/- 2.8%

•Data is weighted to reflect the actual population of each region

A LOOK BACK ON 2020:

What One Word Best Describes How You Feel about Travel?

Feelings About Travel: Historical Perspective

Question: What ONE WORD best describes how you feel about travel right now?

Marc

h

April

October

May

What ONE WORD best describes how you feel about travel in 2021?

21.8%23.9%

61.5%

43.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

March

13-15

April

3-5

April

24-26

May 1

5-17

June 5

-7

June 2

6-28

July 1

7-19

Augu

st 7-9

Augu

st 28-

30

Septe

mber

18-20

Octob

er 9-

11

Oct 3

0-Nov

1

Nove

mber

20-22

Decem

ber 1

1-13

Janua

ry 1-3

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK (WAVES 1-45)

Question: In the NEXT MONTH, how (if at all) do you expect the severity of the coronavirus situation in the United States to change?

In the next month the coronavirus situation will ________

(Base: Waves 1-45. All respondents, 1,201, 1,200, 1,201, 1,216, 1,263, 1,238, 1,208, 1,204, 1,200, 1,212, 1,223, 1,257, 1,214, 1,214, 1,205, 1,231, 1,365, 1,213, 1,200, 1,206, 1,224, 1,201, 1,202, 1,207, 1,250, 1,225, 1,205, 1,200, 1,205, 1,203, 1,203, 1,204, 1,203, 1,203, 1,205, 1,206, 1,205, 1,205, 1,204, 1,206, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)

“Worse” or “Much worse”

“Better” or “Much better”

FEELINGS ABOUT A COVID-19 VACCINE

How much do you agree with the following statement?

Statement: I'm not traveling until I am able to get a vaccine.

(Base: Waves 6-45. All respondents, 1,238, 1,208, 1,204, 1,200, 1,212, 1,223, 1,257, 1,214, 1,214, 1,205, 1,231, 1,365, 1,213, 1,200, 1,206, 1,224, 1,201, 1,202, 1,207, 1,250, 1,225, 1,205, 1,200, 1,205, 1,203, 1,203, 1,204, 1,203, 1,203, 1,205, 1,206, 1,205, 1,205, 1,204, 1,206, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)

Strongly

agree, 25.5%

Agree, 19.5%

Neutral …

Disagree,

14.9%

Strongl…

TRAVEL UNTIL GETTING THE VACCINE

36.5%

45.0%

33.1%29.9%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

April

24-26

May 8

-1

May 2

2-24

June 5

-7

June 1

9-21

July 3

-5

July 1

7-19

July 3

1-Aug

2

Aug 1

4-16

Aug 2

8-30

Sep 1

1-13

Sep 2

5-27

Oct 9

-11

Oct 2

3-25

Nov 6

-8

Nov 2

0-22

Dec 4

-6

Dec 1

8-20

Jan 1-

3

Jan 15

-17

Agree or Strongly AgreeDisagree or Strongly Disagree

Historical data

How much do you agree with the following statement?Statement: I'm not traveling until vaccines are made widely available.

(Base: Waves 41-45. All respondents, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)

Strongly

agree, 25.9%

Agree, 23.8%

Neutral …

Disagree,

12.7%

Strongl…

TRAVEL UNTIL VACCINES ARE MADE WIDELY AVAILABLE

49.6% 51.5% 46.7% 48.7% 49.7%

29.4% 28.9% 30.5% 29.5% 26.6%20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec 18-20

Dec 25-27

Jan 1-3 Jan 8-10 Jan 15-17

Agree or Strongly AgreeDisagree or Strongly Disagree

Historical data

EXPECTED SAFETY OF COVID-19 VACCINES

Question: How safe do you expect a COVID-19 vaccine will ultimately be? (Select one)

(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021) 50.3%55.0%

58.6%55.5%53.3%62.4%61.6%63.8%63.3%

67.8%63.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Nov…

Nov…

Nov…

Nov…

Dec…

Dec…

Dec…

Dec…

Jan…

Jan…

Jan…

Historical data (% Safe or Very safe)

EXPECTATIONS TO TAKE A COVID-19 VACCINE

Question: Do you expect that you will take one of the recently developed COVID-19 vaccines?

44.1%41.5%39.2%42.0%46.2%

40.7%44.7%49.6%51.7%54.1%

60.1%61.4%58.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Septe

mber

11-1

3

Octob

er 2-

4

Nove

mber

6-8

Nove

mber

13-1

5

Nove

mber

20-2

2

Nove

mber

27-2

9

Dece

mber

4-6

Dece

mber

11-1

3

Dece

mber

18-2

0

Dece

mber

25-2

7

Janu

ary 1

-3

Janu

ary 8

-10

Jan 1

5-17

% Who Say Yes

(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)

VACCINES FOR CHILDREN

Question: Will you have your children take a COVID-19 vaccine? (Select one)

(Base: Wave 45 data. Respondents with

school-aged children, 441 completed

surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17,

2021)

Yes, 50.4%

No, 27.1%

Maybe,

15.9%

I don't know, 6.5%

53.2%Last

week

SUMMER TRAVEL & CHILDREN’S VACCINATION

Question: Please think now about your family travels NEXT SUMMER. Imagine that by next summer COVID-19 vaccinations have been widely distributed amongst adults, but children have not yet been widely vaccinated. Your children have not yet been vaccinated.

Would this situation be likely to stop you from taking a family vacation next summer? (Select one that best describes you)

(Base: Wave 39 data. Respondents with school age children they

travel with, 353 completed surveys. Data collected December 4-6,

2020) 4.2%

11.8%

32.4%

25.7%

25.8%

-10% 10% 30% 50%

Not applicable

I don't know /I'm not sure

No, this wouldnot likely stop…

Maybe, I'dassess the…

Yes, I won'ttravel if the…

VACCINES AND OPTIMISM FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL

Question: Does recent news about vaccine developments affect your optimism about life returning to normal (or near normal) in the next SIX (6) MONTHS? (Select one to fill in the blank)

The vaccine news has made me _______________________ about life returning to normal (or near normal) in the next six months.(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)

3.1%

3.6%

37.0%

37.5%

18.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

Much less…

Less optimistic

Neutral…

More optimistic

Much more… 56.3%

3.0%

3.9%

42.2%

34.3%

16.7%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Much less…

Less optimistic

Neutral…

More optimistic

Much more…

VACCINES AND OPTIMISM FOR SAFE TRAVEL

Question: Does recent news about vaccine developments affect your optimism about being able to travel safely in the next SIX (6) MONTHS? (Select one to fill in the blank)

The vaccine news has made me _______________________ about BEING ABLE TO TRAVEL SAFELY in the next six months.

(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)

51.0%

TRAVEL PLANS DUE TO COVID-19 VACCINES

Question: Have you begun planning (or booking) any future travel in anticipation of the COVID-19 vaccine being widely available? (Select one)

(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)

Yes, 31.4%

No, 68.6%

Millennials or younger –42.6%Gen X – 31.4%Baby Boomers or older –20.2%

Question: If proof of having taken a vaccine is required of all attendees at a live event or festival, how would that affect your level of comfort in attending the event? (Select one to complete the sentence)

If all attendees were required to have taken a vaccine, I'd be _________________ attending.

(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected January 15-17, 2021)

REQUIRED COVID-19 VACCINATIONS AND COMFORT ATTENDING

5.7%

3.2%

40.0%

31.3%

19.7%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Much less…

Less comfortable

Neutral (Neither…

More comfortable

Much more…51.0%

KEY TAKEAWAYS• Right now, 58.6 % of Americans expect to take a

COVID-19 vaccine and the majority expect they will be inoculated by this June

• Older Americans are likeliest to feel the current COVID vaccines are safe and most willing to take one. Younger travelers, while not as likely as older travelers to take a vaccine, are likeliest to be planning travel in anticipatin of vaccines being widely available

• Despite challenges, vaccine distribution is still driving optimism about a return to normal—and travel normal—in the next 6 months

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