2.1. china wind market is booming by l. junfeng
TRANSCRIPT
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2010-7-6 ERI/CREIA 1
China wind market is booming:
---- Growth not only on-shore but off-shore
Li Junfeng
Energy Research Institute of NDRC &
China Renewable Energy Industry AssociationJune 21, 2010
Manila, Philippine
TheviewsexpressedinthispresentationarethoseofthepresenteranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.
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Contents
International wind development outlook
Wind power resources allocation
Development status
Update resent yearsNational policy
Potential for more depends onOutlook supply vs. demand forecast
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International wind development
outlook
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Accumulated wind power installation
by Country
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Newly added wind power in 2009
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China wind power development
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National Wind Power Resource
There arediscrepancybetween
differentinstitutions forevaluation ofwind powerresource in
methodologyand results.
It still indicatesthat the wind
resource inChina isabundant.
GW
253300
1,400
750
600
2,000
150
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2nd Resource Census 3rd Resource Census UNEP Calculate CAS Geographical
Institution
Estimated by Ocean
Scheme
Land Sea
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National Wind Power Resource
Theoretical reserves of more than4,000GW above 10m height withtechnically exploitable reserve of 300GW.The practical development area isapproximate 200,000 km2
Based on current technology, over 50m
level, it requires 3-5 MW wind turbine tocover 1km2. With 200,000 km2
development land area available in China,the total installed onshore wind capacitycan probably reach 600~ 1,000GW.
According to the China Coastal Zoneand Tideland Resource Investigation
Report, the sea area of 0-20m offcoastline is around 157,000 km2
Assuming 10% to 20% of the totalamount of sea surface used, the totaloffshore wind capacity can reach100~200GW.
Onshore Resource
Conclusion Abundant wind power resource in China
Great development potential
A key constituent in future energy structure
Offshore Resource
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Ranked second in the world by the
accumulated installation with about 24-26 GW
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Ranked the first by newly added with 12-
14 GW a year
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Regional distribution of turbines
installation
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Development update - near-term activity
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Development update - including long-term
pipeline
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Development update - including long-term
pipeline (6 wind bases)
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Location of 6 wind power bases (over
10 GW of each)
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Off-shore wind development status
----34 3 MW turbine installed in Shanghai
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Current wind power policies
Feed in tariff in 4 regions with each of
them 0.51, 0.54, 0.58 and 0.61/kWh with alocal special support
VAT deduction of equipment cost (usuallyit is 17% of total investment
Income tax for 2 year free and 4 years half(normally it is 25% of net income)
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Wind tariff in china
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Wind tariff in china
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Cheaper manufacture in China
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Future potential
Fl i l RPS f l d i f
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Floor in place - RPS - powerful driver of
sector but other factors at work
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Major suppliers in China
Gold WindXin Jiang Urumchi Sinovel WindLiao Ning Da Lian
Dong Fang ElectricSi Chuan Mian ZhuUnited Power
(Guodian and others) Ming Yang ElectricGuang Dong Zhong Shan Hara XEMC Wind PowerHu Nan Xiang Tan
Chong Qing Wind Power EquipmentChong Qing) Shanghai ElectricShanghai
Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating EngineeringZhe Jiang Hang Zhou CRE WindLiao Ning Sheng Yang Harbin PowerHe Long Jiang Harbin
Gamesa VestasGESuzlonRE PowerAccionaNordex
SKFFAGLMXREB
Do
mesticInvestment
For
eign
Investment
There are currently more than 40 wind turbine generator manufacturers in China, including 4 foreign-invested enterprises , 7 joint-venture companies and over 20 domestic manufacturers.
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Top 10 of the manufactures
Off-shore wind development potential in China..
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25
p p
Xinjiang
Tibet
Qinghai
Yunnan
Guangxi Guangdong Fujian
Jiangxi
Zhejiang
Huizhou
Hubei
Henan
Shanxi
Inner Mongolia
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Anhui
ShandongGansu
Shanxi
Jiangsu
Sichuan
Liaoning
Chongqing
Hebei
Hunan
BEIJING
Inter Tidal
Offshore
Medium-Deep
Offshore
Scale-up Onshore WindBases Northeast and Northwest (Gansu,
Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia)
Wind speed >8.0 m/s
Pilot Intertidal Offshore
Equivalent to Tantu wind speeds perhaps 6.0-7.0 m/s
Mostly Jiangsu, Shanghai andShandong coast
Initiate Medium-Deep WaterOffshore Higher wind speeds than inter-tidal
area but very limitedmeasurements
Fujian, Zhejiang, Guandong,Shandong, Jiangsu and Shangha
Dabancheng
Yumen Huitengxile
Baicheng
Zhangbei
Distinguishing the three main resource types is important
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Distinguishing the three main resource types is important
Onshore Wind
Highest wind speeds
Lowest cost
Extensive local experience
High potential in China
Measures to improve capacityfactor are key to cost efficiency.
No global experience on planned4-10 GW-scale wind bases
Serious wake issue with largescale installations
Grid planning and micro-siting ofturbines key to success.
Offshore Intertidal
Muddy tidal flat area
Potential attractive from a costperspective
Virtually no internationalexperience in constructing wind-farms on tidal flats.
Potentially quite attractive givenproximity to load centers reducing transmission costs
Foundation construction andturbine erection methods have to
be developed to minimize costs.
Offshore Medium to Deep Water
Likely to be most expensive (at
least twice the price of on-shore)
Significant internationalexperience to develop upon.
High costs of construction andmaintenance large capacity
wind turbine (> 3 MW) will reducecosts.
Uncertainties/risks of foundationconstruction
Typhoon risk may be high in
south China
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Special case in Jiangsu
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Special case in Jiangsu
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Future projection
About 4 projects to be announced for biddingwith 200-300 MW of total installation about1000 MW
Mainly in the inter-tidal area, such as Jiangsu,
which with about 8 to 10 GW of inter-tidalwind power potential
Followed by Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong,
Fujian and Guangdong area, with total ofinstallation by 2020 will be about 10 GW ormore
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Lessons to be leant
Localization and market scale are the key measures forreducing the cost
Turbines price down to 5000 RMB Yuan in 2009 from 7000 RMBYuan in 2007
Market scale from 50 MW in early 2000 to about 14 GW by 2009
International cooperation is very importation both forinnovation and quality control
All most of the large manufactures come to China already,including Vestas and GW
GW and other have set up their R&D center in China
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