21st November 2008

Dominique Reynié

35th anniversary of EurobarometerUnderstanding European public opinion

Workshop : Getting the European citizens on board

Dominique ReyniéProfessor in Political

Science,Sciences Po

European People and the European Parliament: what kind of story ?

1.

The European Public Opinion and the European Parliament:

A love story?

The European Parliament

87

11

2

888990

898990

9291919192

8991

101010910

8777779

7

3 21 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

yes

no

DK

Have you ever heard of…

The European Commission

78

20

2

79828281

798182

8081

7880

7879

19161717

191716

1716

1917

1918

221

3222333333

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

yes

no

DK

Have you ever heard of…

The European Central Bank

71

7573

25

2

717273

6871

7273737473

76

26

23

2725

30

2727252424

2324

21

32

12222333333

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

yes

no

DK

Have you ever heard of…

The Council of the European Union

62

34

68

626364

6265

666464

62

66

63

65

3032

29

3332

31 3232

36

32

35

29

34

433

2

4

23

2

65

6666

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

yes

no

DK

Have you ever heard of…

The European Parliament

52

27

21

5556

52525152

57

545457

59

54

57

24 2423 23

2729

26

31

34

30

32

28 27

181616

19

1618

1617

20201922

19

Aut2001

Sp 2002 Aut2002

Sp 2003 Aut2003

Sp 2004 Aut2004

Sp 2005 Aut2005

Sp 2006 Aut2006

Sp 2007 Aut2007

Sp 2008

Tend to trust

Tend not to trust

DK

For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)

The European Commission

47

252726

50

52

4847

4646

52

48

46

50

53

4750

2627

3129

3331

272928

24

24

27

24

2121

24

2123

2123

26

26

2525 24

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

Tend to trust

Tend not to trust

DK

For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)

The European Central Bank

44 4446

53

47

24

30 30 3031

22

26

4749

47

51

4447

4947

50

27 28

25 24

27

252525

26

23232323

29

2626

2726

26

27 28

Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

Tend to trust

Tend not to trust

DK

For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)

The Council of the European Union

41

45

4042

50

43

3129

21

26

3231

47

43

4042

45

3840

43

2626

25

27 29 28 29

29

2726

2927

28

30

2929

323131

3433

30

Aut2001

Sp 2002 Aut2002

Sp 2003 Aut2003

Sp 2004 Aut2004

Sp 2005 Aut2005

Sp 2006 Aut2006

Sp 2007 Aut2007

Sp 2008

Tend to trust

Tend not to trust

DK

For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)

The European Public Opinion and the European Parliament:

A platonic love story?

45,7

49,8

56,858,5

61

69

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Turnout for European elections 1979-2004 (in %)

45,7

49,8

56,858,5

61

69

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Turnout for European elections 1979-2004 (in %)

43

34

58 58

8

3533

38

3535

38

3535

56

50

54565755

5453

97

988

98

11

Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008

Confiance

Pas confiance

NSP

For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. The (NATIONALITY PARLIAMENT) in %

  Average confidence rating (2001-2008)

The European Parliament 54.4

The [NATIONALITY] Parliament 36

Trust average gapbetween the European Parliament and the [NATIONALITY] Parliament

2001-2008

18.4 pointsin favour of the European Parliament

78,4

62,5

72,975,2

64,1

71,5

67,5

71,6

71 68,1

73

78,2

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Turnout for national elections 1996-2007 (in %)

Turnout at the European elections 1979-2004 (in %) 45,7

49,8

56,858,5

61

69

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

78,4

62,5

72,975,2

64,1

71,5

67,5

71,6

71 68,1

73

78,2

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Turnout at national elections 1996-2007 (in %)

2.

Boring Elections?

What is missing in the European elections?

Reif, K. and H. Schmitt (1980),

« Nine Second-order National Elections. A

Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results ».

European Journal of Political Research 8: 3-44.

3.

An unfair competition.

European elections versus national referendum

Average turnout for European elections (1979-2004) :

58,23%

for national elections (1996-2007) :

70%

Average turnout for the 20 referenda

67,4%

Since 1972:

20 referenda held by

European Union member States

13 approved7 rejected

?

www.opinioneuropeenne.eu