21st century communities

12/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 1

Developing Communities for the 21st Century

By: Frank X. SowaChairman/CEOTHE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.

Presented to the Professional Forum of The World Future Society, Washington DC -- July 2006Originally-presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004


Development of the U.S. 1600’s -- 1932

• Pre-Independence -- Rugged Individualism to support survival

• 1776-1876 -- Westering -- Speculation -- uncontrolled laissez faire -- farm and plantation-estate focused

• 1877-1932 -- Mechanical Age -- Railroad towns -- Mill and Company focused


Development in the U.S.1933 -- 1999

• 1933-1958 -- Industrial Age -- Transportation towns -- Suburbia -- City Center/Town Square -- multinational corporation focused

• 1959-1979 -- Urban Age -- Airport towns -- Urban project sprawl -- strip and retail malls -- brick and mortar on greenspace -- service economy focused

• 1980-2000 -- Information Age -- Silicon towns -- High technology/computers/internet -- education , quality-of-life focused


Development in the U.S. In the first part of the 21st

Century• 2000-2007 -- Multinational Age --

International towns -- broadband communication/collaboration linkages -- electronic multinational infrastructure economy focused

• 2008-2023 -- Knowledge Age -- knowledge-core focused towns (education, science and research-oriented) -- complexity matrix linkages -- biological and cellular-electronic collaboration economy


Worn-out methods

• Abdicating power to a “Planning Commission” or an “authority” (local, state, or federal) with old codes and laws to enforce bureaucratically

• Public-Private development and alliances -- big league sports alliances

• Brick and mortar development -- reclaiming brownfields, developing greenfields

• High-Tech Service Centers• Enhancing quality of life -- education• Job creation quick-fix schemes


Making the Transition• OLD WAY -- Control Development with

laws and planning -- maintain the code• MODERN WAY -- Collaborate on

Development -- Public-Private Alliances• 21st CENTURY WAY -- Internationalize

Alliances -- Tax with Incentives• KNOWLEDGE AGE WAY -- Collaborate

free of time-space restraints -- use knowledge and focus on keeping knowledge workers for competitive advantage


The Transition• Doomed to Failure if …– 1.Focus is on laws, codes, old planning– 2. Focus is on survival or benchmarking– 3. Focus is on urban development

projects– 4. Focus is on brick and mortar– 5. Focus is on brownfields and/or green

space– 6. Focus is on today’s technology


Successful Transitions• Will succeed if …

– 1. Control and develop the “chess board” -- not control the “players” or try to go on a “buffalo hunt” and choose the winning “economic pieces.”

– 2. “Chess board” consists of proper infrastructure, providing captivating and meaningful taxation, flexible laws, excellent “knowledge-core” in place or being put in place, and keeping knowledge pieces.


Making the Transition

• Refocus from 90% to 18%:– Rugged individualism (lack of development

plan)– Uncontrolled laissez faire– City center/town square– Urban projects -- development parks– Brick and mortar on brownfields and/or

greenspace– High-Tech Service Centers– Quality of Life-Education

10


Making the Transition• Place your focus to 70-90% on:

– Developing broadband communication/collaboration capability

– Internationalize - cosmopolitanize– Drive networking linkages– Develop knowledge-cores

• Focus on education, science, healthcare, research, complexity management services

11

2/27/04© Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All

rights reserved. 11

Focus of Today’s Talk:Developing for the 21st

CenturyEnhancing Communities to take advantage of the Multinational

and Knowledge EconomiesChanging to 21st Century Alliances -- Incentives

Creating a knowledge core and using knowledge for competitive advantage

12


Head MouseHead Mouse

Areas of a Knowledge Economy

AgricultureAgriculture ConstructionConstructionEnergy and PowerEnergy and Power

BiotechnologyBiotechnology

Information and CommunicationsInformation and Communications

MedicalMedical TransportationTransportation

Manufacturing and RoboticsManufacturing and Robotics

Space and RocketrySpace and Rocketry

13


Which paradigm are you at today?Which paradigm are you at today?• Agricultural -- Hands-based Technology (to 1958)

• Industrial -- Machine-based Technology (to 1979)

• Electronic -- Electrical-based Technology (to 1984)

• Broadcast -- Transistors, Integrated Circuits, Satellites, Desktop Computers (to 1991)

• Informational -- Data-Based Networks (to 1995)

• Narrowcast -- World Wide Web, Downcasting, text, images, Internet-based Technologies (to 1998)

• Collaborative -- Integrated-Communications via Internet and Net tools with full multimedia (through 2011)

• Bio-Melding -- the Next Paradigm (through 2015)

14


Computer

The 90’s and BeyondThe 90’s and Beyond

New Media of the Information AgeNew Media of the Information Age

High BandwidthHigh BandwidthNarrowcastingNarrowcastingDigital SignalDigital SignalAsynchronousAsynchronousCommodity PricedCommodity PricedCost-Free NetworkCost-Free NetworkGlobal AccessGlobal AccessLocal ImpactLocal Impact

Optimized Data Optimized Data TransferTransferDistributed Data Distributed Data Storage in NetworkStorage in NetworkHighest-Value Highest-Value InformationInformationLowest-Cost Lowest-Cost DistributionDistribution

ENHANCEDENHANCEDCOMMUNICATION-BASED MODELCOMMUNICATION-BASED MODEL

Integrated NetworksIntegrated NetworksParallel andParallel andDistributed ComputingDistributed Computing

Broadcast

Telecom

UnifiedUnified

The “lenses” of Niclolas Negroponte -- MIT Labs 1975 -- said a “combined lens” called New Media would be a reality by 2000 -- (Broadcast, Telecom. Computers -- Unified Communications

15


The Future of Unified ITThe Future of Unified ITParallel ProcessingOnline NetworksVirtualWorldsVirtualRealityImagingSimulationsATMInternetWEBSitesEncryptionMultimediaInteractive TelevisionOnline CommerceEDINetwork SecurityEmbeddedLanguagesJavaMobileSatelliteLinksOpenDocNew Operating Systems

hpcmultichipsNew CompilersDigital Switches on ChipsReal TimeNanoswitchesLanguagesMemoryBandwith

--THE XAVIER GROUP in 1986

16


The Effects of the Multinational Age (2001-

2008)

• The Internet in a multinational society• The internet as a collaboration tool• Presentation skills and CRM -- building

relationships• Coping with change and complexity• Coping with global competitors• Lifestyle changes to master a world economy• Tracking, Terrorists, Linkage, Privacy

17


Unified

Information

Technology and

Knowledge

Ontologies

Unified

Neuroscience,

Genome and

Biotechnology

Unified

Materials Science, (Nanotechnology)

and Cellular Robotics

2005 and Beyond2005 and Beyond The Knowledge EconomyUnifiedWholistic Approaches

Man andMachineBio-MeldVirtualSystems

The Lenses of THE XAVIER GROUP 2001

MODEL DRIVEN BY THE LENSES MERGING TOGETHER

18


Unified

Information

Technology and

Knowledge

Ontologies

Unified

Neuroscience,

Genome and

Biotechnology

Unified

Materials Science (Nanotechnology)

and Cellular Robotics

By 2020By 2020

The Knowledge Economy

The LensThe LensBecomesBecomesOverlappedOverlapped

Man andMachineBio-Meld isMainstream

19


The Next ParadigmThe Next ParadigmThe Next ParadigmThe Next Paradigm

The melding of the Information Superhighway Networks with Groupware, Virtual Reality and Artificial Life.

20


The Effects of the Knowledge Age

• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase One– 1998-2005 CRM and ERP (technology began in 1968)

– 1995-2010 Wireless, GPS, RFIDs (technology began in 1975)

– 1973-2020 Virtual Reality, CAD-CAM, 3D Virtual Worlds and Objects, Cyberspace (technology began in 1968)

– 1992-2007 ISO 9000, Standards and Product/Service Tracking

– 1958-2050 Biometrics, Robotic enhancers, Smartbots, automation

21



• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Two– Integration of circuitry -- now to molecular scale– System miniaturization -- systems on a chip– Silicon to plastics to bio-cells– Collaboration/Communications integrity

maintained – Human Genome project, advances in

biotechnology, advances in neuroscience and brain research

– Advances in robotic systems, miniaturization and automation of robots, space systems

22



• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Three– GRID computing, parallel processing, new

knowledge ontologies, object programming, new supercomputers

– New battery and energy technologies -- self-contained

– Mind/Machine solutions for handicaps, terrorism, defense

– Brain mechanisms understood– Microsizing to human cell level– Putting it all together

23



• The melding of Mind with Machine Final Phase– Mind a part of the computer network– Human a part of cyberspace– Ethical, Religious, Military, Market value – The change and complexity issues– The New World (order or disorder) based

on control, independence, interdependence, freedom, tolerance, acceptance of diversity

24


Area’s Knowledge Strengths

• Educational and Research Capabilities• Connectivity and Linkages• People and Capabilities• Healthcare and Biotechnology• Information Technology and

Telephony• Science and Mathematics Capabilities• Capital Formation and Foundations

25


Area’s Knowledge Weaknesses

• Brick and Mortar and Old Economy Focus with Public Project Development

• Parochialism and Conservative Statism• Underdeveloped, Underachieving

Workforce• Bad Self-Image, Poor Direction• Fighting Mythical Dinosaurs• Brain-Drain , Aging Population

26


By 2008• More consolidation of farming,

manufacturing, construction, high-technology, banking and financials, healthcare

• 85% traditional manufacturing moved offshore (72% offshore now)

• 68% high-technology jobs, customer service jobs, financial services, professional services, hardware/software offshore (38% offshore now)

27


What this means to jobs• Major job losses in traditional

manufacturing, financial services, customer services, high-technology, major construction

• Job losses heavy in management, financial management, engineering, technician areas, brokerages, programming, skilled labor

• 1955-2002 these were by far the best paying and broadest opportunities in the upper middle class

28


Losing these jobs means more fallout in …

• Any major occupation that caters to upper middle class consumers -- retail, wholesale, government, education, healthcare and so forth

• The fallout of this sector will require four things:– 1. Capability to train in new skills– 2. Public Support for those sliding, less tax capability,

less able to support healthcare, less capable to own real estate, less capable of paying off credit

– 3. More public concerns, welfare, mental health, etc.– 4. Supply from offshore sources to pick up

domestic slack

29


1980 Wealth Demographics in PA

>6K

6K-10K

10K-18K

18K-23K

23K-28K

28K-36K

36K-45K

45K-64K

64K-75K

75K-90K90K-110K

110K-130K

1.1M-500M

130K-150K

150K-170K

170K-190K

190K-250K

250K-500K

500K-1.1M

500M-800B

WEALTHY

MIDDLE CLASS

WELFARE CLASS

<500K = 6%Wealthy = 23%Middle Class = 48%

Welfare Class = 23%

Wealthiest exceed $650 billion in assets

30



>6K

6K-10K

10K-18K

18K-23K

23K-28K

28K-36K

36K-45K

45K-64K

64K-75K

75K-90K90K-110K

110K-130K

1.1M-500M

130K-150K

150K-170K

170K-190K

190K-250K

250K-500K

500K-1.1M

500M-800B

WEALTHY

MIDDLE CLASS

WELFARE CLASS

<500K = 4%Wealthy = 26%

Middle Class = 55%Welfare Class = 15%

Wealthiest exceed $800 billion in assets

31



>6K

6K-10K

10K-18K

18K-23K

23K-28K

28K-36K

36K-45K

45K-64K

64K-75K

75K-90K90K-110K

110K-130K

700K-300M

130K-150K

150K-170K

170K-190K

190K-250K

200K-250K

250K-700K

300M-1T

WEALTHY

MIDDLE CLASS

WELFARE CLASS

<700K = 2%Wealthy = 15%

Middle Class = 64%Welfare Class = 18%

Wealthiest will exceed $1 trillion in assets

32


From the Past to the Future“What we see today is young

people who, lacking an understanding of the past and a vision of the future, live in an impoverished present.”

-- Allan Bloom, Closing of the American Mind, 1987.

33


FUTURE CURRICULUM• Biomelding requires merging of Liberal

Arts, Science and Technology Literacy• Teaching within a Futures’ Context• Electronic Networking and Collaboration • Requires radically new knowledge skills• Requires a revamping of Curriculum and

Rubrics

34


Education of the Future• The coming of the unlimited global

learner instead of a “product” of the educational institution

• Transfer of education from a focus on bell-curve achievement by the Masses to self-realization of the Individual

• Home will become the new center of advanced learning

• Communication electronically anywhere, anytime, anyplace will be at the knowledge core of this shift

35


Learning and Work

• Scholar’s Learning Mode• Continuous learning • Competency-based versus seat time• Expert systems, many online, will evaluate

resumes, credentials, and determine who will be selected for jobs of the future

• Personal vs Institutional Responsibility

36


Work and Learning• Work and learning will increasingly

be integrated and continuous.• Knowledge and skills will rapidly

change in the knowledge economy.• Innovative and effective training

and retraining strategies will be essential.

• Successful enterprises will have a culture of learning, will focus on knowledge management and solutions, and knowledge workers.

37


Workforce• The workforce will continue to

provide both rich opportunities and severe dislocations.

– Mismatch between knowledge skills needed and skills available.

– Continuous learning on the job.– Increasing importance of

knowledge workers makes this the essence of location

38


New Concepts of Working

• New ways to work will become increasingly widespread.

– Telecommuting and video conferencing will significantly replace face-to-face time and setback airline ambitions.

– Work anywhere, any time, anyplace strategies will become commonplace.

– Role of Workers will change the desire for business to chase traditional skills and markets.

39


Lifestyles & Demographics

• Aging of the Population– Those over 65 will comprise 21.5% of

the population by 2030.– Retirement age will rise to 70 by 2025.– Many people will continue to work after

“retirement.”– Potential for generational controversy

and conflict will increase.

40


Change of the Leadership Structure

• Bottom-up systems and networks of webs become more dynamic, effective, and powerful as top-down systems and hierarchies become less effective and powerful.

– Bureaucracies are becoming dysfunctional, PLACES ARE NOT AS IMPORTANT.

– Self-organizing teams are becoming the most effective way of getting things done.

41


Entrepreneurs and Strategies

• Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial strategies and activities will be increasingly important to the economic health of a community or region.

– Growth of small businesses and cottage industries

– Increasing numbers of contractual workers

– Entrepreneurial spirit and strategies will be necessary to all effective individuals and employees

42


Developing Communities for the 21st Century

It is not Rocket Science! …or is it?The Future of jobs and communities

are at stake! By: Frank X. SowaChairman/CEOTHE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.P.O. Box 251Glenshaw, PA 15116 USA(412) 487-9422(412) [email protected]://www.xaviergroup.com

Presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004

21st century communities

Documents

public planners forum

2 27 04 copyright

2 27 04 copyright

2 27 04 copyright

knowledge age

knowledge age

rights reserved

nemacolin xiv