2/28/02 nsf - responding to the unexpected 1 earthquake case discussion response to unexpected nsf...
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2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected
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Earthquake Case Discussion
Response to Unexpected
NSF Workshop
Feb 27-Mar 1 2002
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Issues
Lessons from earthquakes Response issues Modalities of research Research bottlenecks
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Lessons from Earthquakes (and other natural disasters)
Some predictable elements, many unexpected Significant experience Physical Variables
– Areal extent– Duration– Size and impact
Other variables– Jurisdictions– Organizations– Available technologies– Asset and sector exposures
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Response discussion
Communication (design and architecture) network design, control, interfaces, multi-modality
Vertical and horizontal inter-organizational coordination– Information integration across authorities identified as major
CS problem Designed-in flexibility : object-oriented planning,
breadboard approach Data needs Game-playing for modeling response system Simulation and training for unexpected events
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Response discussion (cont.)
Information issues– Analysis– Acquisition/collection– Qc and validation, calibration– Active vs passive interactions– Information for coordination: incorporation of response
activities into information stream– Security, access, channels, information communities – Integrating before event– Situational alertness and interactions with monitoring webs
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Response Research needs: Planning architectures
– Flexibility– Robustness– Modularity– Extensibility– interoperability– Scaling– Timeliness
Minimize trauma and damage (health and infrastructure) Public pressure (politics) Return to normalcy
– Practical implementation– User-mediated interaction
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Response Research needs (cont.)
Decision architectures (in real time, collaborative)– fundamental models– Autonomous agent decision vs. human input– Prioritizing response actions– Risk modeling under unfolding conditions– Choice modeling (public and private)– Triage response
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Modeling
A priori assessments of vulnerability Nature and severity of unexpected event
(within the envelope) - situational assessment Scenarios (outside the envelope) Tracking the trajectory of event
– Cascading consequences
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Modeling (cont.)
Understanding event timelines Understanding spatial extent and variability Understanding response time constraints State of modeling unsatisfactory
– Loss-estimation– Calibration– Modeling and data issues– Postdiction assessment
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Information issues
Database integration Passive and active interaction Archived and RT data Resources, responses, techniques Security
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Information issues (cont.)
Situational matching Practitioner matching Time-variant, real-time environment Encylopaedic vs. critical need (agent-based
selection) Alerts, identification of significant input
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Research Modalities
More active interaction with practitioners Partnerships with regional and local
governments Structure such as CALL (Army Center for
Lessons Learned) Case histories, rapid response, integration of
case studies into response mechanisms, indexing of unexpected events
Evaluation
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Research bottlenecks
Inter-organizational coordination– Fed/state/local interactions– Mission agency interactions
Data security dilemmas– Policy vacuum– CS research opportunity