22nd july,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice e-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

News are published with permission of ORYZA.com

July 22 2015 Vol 5 ,Issue VII





Global Rice Quotes

July 22nd, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 390-400 ↓

Vietnam 5% broken 345-355 ↔

India 5% broken 385-395 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 370-380 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 400-410 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 470-480 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 360-370 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 330-340 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 350-360 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 445-455 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 390-400 ↓

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390 ↔





U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 855-865 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-320 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 305-315 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 325-335 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Drought, Sluggish World Economy Threatening Thai

Rice Exports, Say Exporters

Jul 21, 2015





The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) is expecting this year's rice exports to be lower than

their target of 10 million tons due to extending drought conditions and sluggish world economy,

according to local sources.

The President of the TREA told local sources that they are expecting Thailand to export around 9.5

million tons of rice this year, including 4.8 million tons of white rice, 2.2 million tons of Hom Mali

fragrant rice, 200,000 tons of glutinous rice and 100,000 tons of Pathum Thani fragrant rice.

The 5% cut in expected export is due to a prolonged drought that curtailed 2015 second crop

production and delayed main crop planting, he said. Lack of demand from most of the importing

nations is also understood to be impacting Thai rice exports.

The TREA President also noted that drought conditions may continue for next one year and a

decline in global economy would further impact Thai rice exports. He suggested that the government

should focus more on quickly releasing the government rice stocks to meet the market demand.

The TREA President also noted that the paddy output from the 2015 main crop would decline by

about 10% or by about 3 million tons to around 24 million tons due to drought. However, he





expressed optimism that a decline in supplies would push up Thai rice prices, which have reached

their lowest levels since seven years due to excess stocks, lack of demand and stiff competition from

India and Vietnam. Currently, Thai 5% broken rice is quoting at around $390 per ton.

Earlier this month, the Agriculture Ministry has estimated that about 1.4 million rai (around 560,000

hectares) of rice fields are affected by drought. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has

estimated that the output from 2015 main rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's

total rice output, to decline about 14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last

year.

Meanwhile, the National Disaster Warning Center noted that drought conditions in most parts of the

country are over and the wet season in underway, but the country still faces water shirt-

supplies. "The drought situation is over as we saw rainfall consecutively over the past week.

However, there are seven provinces, mostly in the north, that are experiencing no rainfall still,"

Reuters quoted the Deputy Director-General of Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and

Mitigation. He noted that an emergency fund in these provinces would help address the water

shortages as well as support for the implementation of short-term relief measures.

Seperately, the Agriculture Minister also announced that the government would release some water

from dams to help farmers who have already planted their crops

High Input Costs, Low Crop Prices Reducing Export

Competitiveness of Pakistan Rice, Say Experts

Jul 21, 2015

Pakistan rice sector is currently facing excess stocks problem as its exports have been impacted by

a stiff competition from other rice exporting nations such as Thailand, India and Vietnam; falling

global rice prices and low demand from rice importing countries.

Experts say Pakistan's rice stocks have been increasing for the last couple of years as the country

has not been able to increase exports significantly. Meanwhile, increased production is adding to the

surplus rice stocks. Currently, Pakistan is said to have around 600,000 tons of basmati stocks and

traders are expecting to add another 400,000 tons this year taking the stock level to about one

million tons by the end of this year. The situation is leading to unnecessary increase in stock

maintenance costs as well.





The inherent reason for Pakistan's failure in increasing exports is that input costs borne by rice

farmers is much high compared to the prices they get. For instance, farmers spend about Rs.67,200

per acre (around $1,650 per hectare) but get only Rs.36,000 per acre (around $880 per hectare),

according to local sources. Farmers' incomes are severely impacted due to this huge gap, according

to an article in Dawn.com.

According to the article, experts are urging the government to urgently address the issue as it has

also been making Pakistani rice uncompetitive in the international market. Falling global rice prices

are adding to the troubles of Pakistan rice sector, they say. They also stressed that if the situation

continues for long, farmers may lose interest in cultivating the crop leading to food security in the

country.

They noted that the government could help farmers reduce their production input costs by cutting

down billions of subsidies, which have not been benefiting small farmers. It should help them to

increase competitiveness of Pakistani rice in the global market by modifying its monetary and fiscal

policies accordingly.





Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice

Futures Bounce Back Above $11.000 per cwt on

Outside Support

Jul 21, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 11.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at

$11.005 per cwt (about $243 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly higher; Soybeans

closed about 0.5% higher at $10.0475 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.5% lower at $5.2475 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.4% higher at $4.1725 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to lackluster earnings reports in

some Dow components. Earnings so far have mostly beat expectations. Google surged more than

16% on Friday to push the Nasdaq to a record high. The tech and biotech-heavy index ended at

another record on Monday. No economic data is due Tuesday. The only reports expected for the

week are in the housing market, with the FHFA home prices and existing home sales scheduled for

Wednesday. Commodities remained in focus, with gold struggling to hold above $1,100 an ounce

after falling below that psychologically key level to a five-year low on Monday. European stocks

closed lower, with the DAX off more than 1 percent, as investors focused on earnings. Greece's

stock exchange remained closed, while the local banks reopened on Monday for the first time in

three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 196 points, or 1.09%, at 17,903. The

S&P 500 traded down 8 points, or 0.39%, at 2,120, with telecommunications leading nine sectors

lower and energy the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 9 points, or 0.19%, at 5,209. Gold is

trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.4% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen

trading at about 0.8% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Monday, there were 474 contracts traded, down from 701 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest

– the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday increased by 69 contracts to 8,690.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures

Silent Overnight as Traders Look for Change in

Fundamental Demand

Jul 21, 2015





Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 2 cents per cwt (about $0.44

per ton) higher at $10.910 per cwt (about $241 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other

grains are seen trading mixed this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.2% higher,

wheat is listed about 0.8% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.5% lower.

U.S. stock index futures indicated a flat to lower open on Tuesday, as the second-quarter earnings

season gets into full swing with the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Yahoo reporting this session.

Volatility in commodity markets is also likely to get some attention, with U.S. oil prices slipping back

below the $50-a-barrel mark on the back of a stronger dollar and worries about a supply glut. U.S.

stocks closed mildly higher on Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting another record high. In

Europe, regional stock markets gave up early gains and moved into negative territory and Asian

shares ended the day higher. Gold is currently trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading

about 0.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% lower at 8:15am Chicago

time.

Ecuador Winter Rice Output Expected to Increase on

Higher Acreage, Says BCE

Jul 21, 2015

Ecuador's winter rice crop (December - June) output is expected to increase about 3% y/y due to an

increase in the acreage by about 3% y/y, local sources quoted a report by the Central Bank of

Ecuador (BCE).

The Bank based its analysis on a survey of rice farmers in the provinces of Manabi, Guayas, Los

Ríos, Loja, El Oro and Cañar. While 15% of surveyed farmers said the rice acreage was higher from

last year, 76% said it was same as last year and 9% of said it was lower from last year's.

When asked about investment in this year's winter crop, about 54% of surveyed farmers said they

invested more compared to last year, 19% said they maintained last year's level of investment and

27% said they made no investment this year.

The Bank expects an increase in the winter rice crop harvest, which declined for three consecutive

years. The South American nation's 2014 winter rice output declined by about 8% y/y while the area

sown to the crop declined about 2% y/y.

Ecuador has been self-sufficient in rice production for the last two years, according to USDA.





The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates 2015 paddy rice production at around

1.23 million tons (around 774,900 tons, basis milled), up about 5% from 1.17 million tons (around

737,100 tons, basis milled) last year due to an expected increase in plantings.

USDA estimates Ecuador's MY 2015-16 (April - March) paddy production at around 1.26 million tons

(around 794,000 tons, basis milled), up about 3% from an estimated 1.225 million tons (around

772,000 tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15.

Philippines Traders May Not Import All 805,200 Tons

of Rice Under WTO MAV Quota, Says NFA Official

Jul 21, 2015





Private rice traders in the Philippines are reportedly showing interest to import rice from only

Thailand and Vietnam, while they are also permitted to imports from China, Australia, India and

Pakistan, according to Reuters.

The Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) has allowed private traders to import around 805,200

tons of 25% broken rice at 35% tariff under the WTO Minimum Access Volume (MAV) country

specific quota (CSQ) before November 30, 2015.





Under the quota, Philippines traders can import up to 293,100 tons each from Thailand and Vietnam;

up to 50,000 tons each from China, India and Pakistan; 15,000 tons from El Salvador and the rest

from other countries.

However, so far the private traders have applied to import only 300,000 tons of rice from Thailand

and Vietnam, Reuters quoted a NFA official. A Manager at NFA's Grains Marketing Operations

Department added that considering the pace and trend of import applications so far, it is likely that

the entire volume may not be imported. Traders can apply till July 30, 2015.

The NFA has decided to import 750,000 tons of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 550,000 tons

from Vietnam) under government-to-government deals in 2015 to ensure adequate stocks in the

lean season (June – September). It is authorized to import another 250,000 tons if need arises.

But, local sources quoted officials from the Department of Agriculture that the Food Security

Committee (FSC) may not approve the additional importation of the 250,000 tons as there is an

oversupply of stocks currently in the country. "the market is “flooded” with rice despite the prevailing

lean season for paddy production," a DA official told Reuters.

The country's Food Security Chief, however, said a decision on additional imports may be taken

after receiving projections on the last quarter harvests. The NFA Administrator said there is no

oversupply of rice, but sales of NFA rice slowed down due to a decline in commercial prices. He

noted that the present stocks are in accordance with the mandate to maintain 15 days buffer stocks

in normal months and 30 days buffer stocks during lean months.

Thailand, Vietnam, India Rice Sellers Increase Some

of Their Quotes Today

Jul 21, 2015

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for Hommali rice by about $25 per ton to around $855-

$865 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and $100 broken

rice by about $5 per ton each to around $345-$355 and $315-$325 per ton respectively. India rice

sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $10 per ton to around $305-$315 per

ton. Pakistan rice sellers are out today due to a national

holiday.

5% Broken Rice





Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Vietnam

5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is

indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice was last

shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam

25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360,

about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice was last shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $395 - $405 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at

around $380- $390 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was last shown at

around $415 - $425 per

ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $5 per ton from

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton, up about $5 per ton from

yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, up about $10 per ton from

yesterday and about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice last shown at around $285 -

$295 per ton

Thailand Prepares to Auction 1.29 Million Tons of

Spoilt Rice by End of July

Jul 21, 2015

The Thai Commerce Ministry is planning to auction about 1.29 million tons of spoilt rice for industrial

sectors by the end of July, according to Reuters.

The Commerce Minister told reporters that as on June 30, 2015, the government stocks consisted of

a total of 15.11 million tons of rice and the rice is divided into three groups.





The first group comprises 9.15 million tons of edible rice, including 1.82 million tons of grade A and B

rice, and 7.33 million tons of grade A and B rice mixed with grade C rice. The second group consists

of 5.89 million tons of grade C rice, including 4.6 million tons of degradable rice and 1.29 million tons

of inedible rice which is now crumbling to powder. The third group consists if about 70,000 tons of

rice, which is yet to categorized.

The Minister noted that the 1.29 million tons of powdery rice will be sold in two or three auctions for

bio-fuel as well as ethanol producers. The price of the spoilt rice will be reportedly set by a working

group later, according to the Commerce Permanent Secretary.

She also noted that 4.6 million tons of C grade rice will be checked whether it is contaminated with

fungus or not. The contaminated rice would be sold to ethanol producers or biomass power plants. If

there is no contamination, the Ministry would improve the quality and sell it the stock feed industry.

She also added that the Ministry would monitor the delivery of the rice to the designated destinations

and ensure that the rice is being used for the said purpose.

The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht

(around $2.93 billion), said the Minster

22nd july,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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