24 January 2013The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues Bushfires continue to burn in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia

and Tasmania.

Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) assistance has been extended to the local government areas of Alpine, Baw Baw, East Gippsland, Latrobe and Wellington in Victoria.

The monsoon has arrived in northern Australia bringing prolonged torrential rainfall in some regions, causing road closures and flooding.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 527 gigalitres this week and are at 75 per cent of total capacity.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$352 a tonne in the week ending 22 January 2013, compared with US$342 a tonne in the previous week.

Between mid 2012 to November 2012, the sales share of branded milk at major supermarkets in Australia increased by 4 percentage points to 50 per cent of total milk sales at supermarkets, while the sales share of home brand milk fell by 4 percentage points to 50 per cent.

Changes to saleyard lamb prices were mixed in the week ending 18 January 2013. The lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) rose by 5 per cent in Victoria, 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 335 cents per kilogram and 289 cents per kilogram, respectively. In New South Wales and South Australia, the indicator prices of lamb remained largely unchanged.

The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher in the week ending 19 January 2013 with the wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), avocado (hass), strawberry and blueberry increasing.

Changes to wholesale prices of vegetables were mixed in the week ending 19 January 2013. The wholesale prices of cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), beans (round) and broccoli were higher while the prices of onions (brown), pumpkin (grey bulk) and iceberg lettuce were lower.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool averaged 1105 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 17 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at sale was 12 per cent higher than the previous week.

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1. Bushfires Bushfires continue to burn in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Isolated rainfall and cooler temperature have assisted fire-fighters in controlling the spread of the

Wambelong Fire at Coonabarabran in northern New South Wales, while lightning strikes on Wednesday evening have ignited several new fires across the state. The latest available information provided by the New South Wales Fire Service indicates that 53 properties, 120 outbuildings, livestock and farm machinery have been destroyed as a result of the 55 000 hectare Warrumbungle National Park bush fire (Advice – Wambelong Fire, Coonabarabran (Warrumbungle LGA) – 23 January 2013).

The NSW Department of Primary Industries State Emergency co-ordinator has indicated that its operational focus remained on the Wambelong fire at Coonabarabran. The focus has moved to planning short term and longer term fodder requirements, with confirmed losses from this fire including 23 000 hectares of farm land burnt out, 847 sheep and 318 cattle.

In the south east of the state, the focus was on recovery activities, which include finalising damage assessments from fires near Yass and Cooma and assessing stock impacted by the Watershed Stud fire at Boorowa, and provisioning of emergency fodder. In the Cooma–Monaro area, stock losses include 2450 sheep and 703 kilometres (km) of fencing. At Yass and Harden, 10 196 sheep have been lost, along with 147 cattle, 1293 km of fencing, 1.5 km irrigation pipe, 5.5 km of internal roads and three sheds. At Boorowa, the fire claimed 40 sheep, 350 round bales of hay, with fencing losses yet to be assessed.

Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) assistance is available in fire affected regions. In Victoria, NDRRA assistance has been extended to the local government areas (LGAs) of Alpine, Baw Baw, East Gippsland, Latrobe and Wellington. This makes a total of 65 LGAs affected by the recent bushfires. For additional information about Natural Disaster Relief Arrangements refer to the Disaster Assist Website.

Hot, dry and windy weather conditions are expected to continue in parts of southern Queensland, South Australia, Victoria and western New South Wales this week. The Eucla region in Western Australia is forecast to have catastrophic fire conditions on 24 January 2013. Severe to extreme fire danger is forecast for parts of central-west Queensland, central Western Australia, and parts of South Australia over the next few days.

2. Climate

2.1. Notable events

The monsoon has arrived in northern Australia bringing prolonged torrential rainfall in some regions, causing road closures and flooding. Pastoral stations in the Gulf region are preparing for extensive flooding and isolation. Storms in the western Darling Downs of Queensland have caused some flash flooding and damage to roads. Heavy rainfall was also recorded for coastal Queensland and north-east New South Wales which may cause some lodging in sugar cane crops

Two ex-tropical cyclones are having an influence on local climate and weather systems. Ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ in the Queensland Gulf region is bringing extensive torrential rainfall while ex-tropical cyclone ‘Peta’, off north-west Western Australia is bringing strong winds and rain to the region.

Hot and dry conditions over the last few weeks have prompted some irrigators in the Riverina to continually apply water in an effort to sustain quality for fruit and vegetable crops.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks indicate that a wetter than normal season is more likely for northern Queensland and in the west of Western Australia during February to April 2013. Drier than normal conditions are likely in South Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. The temperature outlook indicates that daytime temperatures are likely to be higher than normal over south-west Western Australia. Night-time temperatures are likely to be higher than normal across most of Western Australia and in northern Queensland (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Outlook’ 23 January 2013).

2.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 23 January 2013, most rainfall was recorded across the tropical north of Australia. Two ex-tropical cyclones ‘Oswald ‘ and ‘Peta’ are currently having an influence on local climate and weather systems, bringing high winds and rainfall. The highest rainfall total for the week was 756 millimetres at Aurukun Shire council, near Weipa in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Queensland. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 23 January 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/01/2013

2.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 January 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/01/2013

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 January 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/01/2013

2.4. Rainfall outlook

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 24 to 31 January 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 24/01/2013

2.5. Seasonal outlook Chance of exceeding the median rainfall – February to April 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/01/2013

Chance of exceeding the median max temperature – February to April 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/01/2013

Chance of exceeding the median min temperature – February to April 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/01/2013

3. Water

3.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 527 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 75 per cent of total capacity. This is 7 percentage points or 1645 GL less than this time last year.

3.2. Water storages

Water storage in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 24 January 2013 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

4. Commodities

4.1. Production and commodities The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$352 a

tonne in the week ending 22 January 2013, compared with US$342 a tonne in the previous week. The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$307 a

tonne for the week ending 23 Jan 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week. The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$630 a tonne in

the week ending 22 January 2012, compared with US$624 a tonne in the previous week. The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) increased by 3 per cent in the week ending

23 January 2013 to average US86.1 cents a pound, which is its highest level since the week ended 5 September 2012 when it averaged US86.3 cents a pound.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) fell by around 3 per cent in the week ending 23 January 2013 to average US18.3 cents a pound.

The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher in the week ending 19 January 2013 with the wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), avocado (hass), strawberry and blueberry increasing.

Changes to wholesale prices of vegetables were mixed in the week ending 19 January 2013. The wholesale prices of cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), beans (round) and broccoli were higher while the prices of onions (brown), pumpkin (grey bulk) and iceberg lettuce were lower.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $541 a tonne in the week ending 23 January 2012, compared with $527 a tonne in the previous week.

The New South Wales and Victoria young cattle indicator prices (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by 6 per cent and 4 per cent to 314 and 310 cents a kilogram, respectively, in the week ending 18 January 2013. The Queensland indicator price was largely unchanged.

Following the price discounting of home brand milk by the major supermarkets in Australia in late January 2011, the sales share of branded milk at supermarkets fell by 5 percentage points to around 46 per cent of total milk sales at supermarkets, while the sales share of home brand milk rose by 5 percentage points to 54 per cent. These shares stayed at around these levels until mid 2012. However between mid 2012 to November 2012, the sales share of branded milk increased by 4 percentage points to 50 per cent, while the sales share of home brand milk fell by 4 percentage points to 50 per cent.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool averaged 1105 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 17 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at sale was 12 per cent higher than the previous week.

Changes to saleyard lamb prices were mixed in the week ending 18 January 2013. The lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) rose by 5 per cent in Victoria and 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 335 cents per kilogram and 289 cents per kilogram, respectively. In New South Wales and South Australia, the indicator prices of lamb remained largely unchanged.

4.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

4.3. Selected world indicator prices

4.4. Crop indicator prices

4.5. Livestock indicator prices

4.6. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

5. Data attribution

ClimateBureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /

WaterNew South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia

SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading

Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables

Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/Results/HistoricalData.aspx