24 mcgraw-hill/irwincopyright © 2012 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved. the...
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24
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Trade Deficits
International Transactions
• International trade• Trade goods and services or
assets for money• When using different currencies,
currencies must be converted for trade to occur
LO1
Balance of Payments
• Sum of all of a nation’s international financial transactions
• Balance of payments accounts sum to zero
• Current account deficits generate asset transfers to foreigners
• Can use official reserves to balance payments if necessary like a savings account
LO2
Balance of Payments
LO2
U.S. Trade Balances
LO2
Flexible Exchange Rates
• Flexible or floating exchange rates
• Exchange rates are determined in the free market
• Fixed exchange rates
• Government determines exchange rates and makes adjustments to maintain them
LO3
Flexible Exchange Rates
• Determinants of exchange rates• Factors that shift demand/supply
• Changes in tastes• Relative income changes• Relative price-level changes
•Purchasing-power-parity theory• Relative interest rates• Relative expected returns on assets• Speculation
LO3
Flexible Exchange Rates
• Eliminate balance of payments deficit or surplus
• Disadvantages of flexible exchange rates • Uncertainty and diminished trade• Terms-of-trade changes• Instability
LO4
Flexible Exchange Rates
LO4
Fixed Exchange Rates
• Government intervention• Use of reserves
• Trade policies• Exchange controls and rationing
• Distorted trade• Favoritism• Restricted choice• Black markets
• Macroeconomic adjustments
LO4
The Managed Float
• Occasional intervention
• In support of managed float
• More successful than expected even during severe financial crises
• Concerns with managed float
• Too volatile
• Guidelines are too vague
LO4
U.S. Trade Deficit
• Large and persistent• Causes of trade deficits
• High U.S. growth (relatively)• China• Price of oil• Low U.S. saving rate
• Implications of trade deficits• Increased current consumption• Increased indebtedness
LO5
U.S. Trade Deficits
• U.S. Trade Deficits, 2001-2009
LO5