2.4 - victorian integrated transport model

Victorian Integrated Transport Model

Henry Le

29 November 2011

Introduction

Presentation Title December 15, 2011

Background

Model structure

Main model features

Other Components

Validation

Suggestions for further developments

Background

December 15, 2011Presentation Title

Recalibrated MITM4 time periods2272 zones

Enhanced MITM for Metro - AM2395 zones

MITM for growth areas - AM2789 zones

MITM for Melton - AM2912 zones

VITM4 time periods2959 zones

MITM for Melbourne Airport - AM2272 zones

PT & Other Enhancements

Model structure


Main Model Features

• Trip generation

• Mode choice and distribution model


Trip Generation - Trip purposes

VITM Development & Implementation

December 15, 2011

• Home-Based Work• Home-Based Education (Primary)• Home-Based Education (Secondary)• Home-Based Education (Tertiary)• Home-Based Shopping• Home-Based Social• Home-Based Other• Employer’s Business• Non Home-Based Other

Trip Generation - Production

Trip productions are based on how many trips are made by each person, rather than by each household


Age,employment statuscar availabilityhousehold structuregeographic region

Home Based Trip Production


December 15, 2011

Segmentation by:

8 household types: • the number of adults and • employed adults

8 person types: based on • age group and • employment status

2 car availability groups• Captive/competition• Choice

Household Type ( ) Adults Employed

Adults Number of Household Vehicles ( )

0 1 2 3+

1 1 0 = 0 1

2 1 1 = 0 1

3 2 0 = 0 = 1 2

4 2 1 = 0 = 1 2

5 2 2 = 0 = 1 2

6 3 1 = 0 = 1 = 2 3

7 3 2 = 0 = 1 = 2 3

8 3 3 = 0 = 1 = 2 3

Car-ownership level segmentations by household-type segment. Shading indicates car-availability segmentation: Captive/Competition, Choice

Source: Recalibration and Revalidation of the Melbourne Integrated Transport Model (Vol1 Report, DOT, 2010)

Non Home Based Trips


December 15, 2011

NHB trips are often directly related to home-based trip attractions

NHB trip ends as a function of trip attractionsSymmetry of trip endsNHB mode related to HB modesNHB generation model is implemented after the distribution and mode choice models

Mode (m) Purpose (p)

Car

HBW0.223

4HBE_PHBE_SHBE_THBSh

0.3357HBSoc

HBO

Mode (m) Region (j) Purpose (p)

PT

All

HBW

0.0620HBE_PHBE_SHBE_T

j Melbourne LGAHBSh

0.2769HBSocHBO

j Non-Melbourne LGAHBSh

0.1068HBSocHBO

NHBO Trip Generation Model Coefficients


Mode/Destination Choices

December 15, 2011VITM Development & Implementation

Based on a hierarchical discrete choice model


Calculate the utility for Car & PT (with Attr. Const.) for mode choice (by origin) and destination (by matrix)

Mode Choice (Trip Production by

mode) Distribution

(Trip matrix by mode)Motorised Trip

Production

Calculate Estimated Trip attractionRMSE of Trip Attraction

Attraction ConstMotorised Trip

Attraction

CheckRMSE

Loop

Mode Choice/Distribution

Mode Choice/Distribution


December 15, 2011

Other Model Components

• Network & zone system

• Regional Rail Demand Model

• Airport Model

• PT Model Train & Tram Travel Time

P&R

PT Crowd Model


Network Developments – Zone System


VITM

Internal zones 2893 including

– 2253 existing– 123 Metro 1 & 2 – 517 growth areas

External zones 66 includes

19 highway zones47 PT zones: Geelong, Ballarat,

Bendigo, Gippsland and Seymour

Total 2959

Network Developments


New network includes– Detailed station platform for inner stations– Extended regional rail links and zones

Regional Rail Model


Generation

Distribution

Mode Choice

Time Periods

Travel Time Function:- Train- Tram- Bus + SkyBus

PT Crowd Modelling

PNR zone catchment

Trip Generation

Demographic Data

Car Ownership & Household Type

Model

Combined Mode Choice &

Distribution

Park & Ride Model

Time Periods & Vehicle Occupancy

Special Trips: Commercial &

Highway External

Mod

elFe

edba

ck+

Highway Assignment

PT Assignment

Cost Blending

AM IP PM OP

Initial Highway & PT Assignment

Initial Networks

Network Updating

Skims & Generalised

Costs

Cost Averaging

Cost Averaging

Initialization

Regional RailModel

RR Base Demand

(AM Peak)

RR Demand (PM Peak)

Demographic Data

Growth Parameters

PT Enhancements

Existing Modules

New & Enhanced modules

Airport Model

Main Model

Regional Rail Model


• T = train trips• P = population• A = attraction variable• C = public transport generalized costs• r1 & r2 = additional growth factors between 2008-21 and 2021-31

Travel demand

Regional Rail Model


Assignment

• Services coded from the regional towns

• PT Assignment for regional & metropolitan at the same time

Airport Model


Demographic Data

MITM Assignment

Airport Distribution GravityModel (no assignment)

AirportModeChoice(no assignment)

Time Split(AM,IP,PM,OP)

Highway SkimsDemographicsPassenger Trip Ends

24 Hour PersonTrip Matrix

PT GenCostsCar Gen Costs

24 hrPublicTransportMatrix

24 hr Private Vehicle(Person) Matrix

MITM Time & Occupancy Adjustment Factors

ModeChoice(h'way assignment)

Time Split(AM, IP, PM)

MATRS Assignment

MergeMITM & MATRSMerge

MITM into MATRS

The trip distribution of residents – based on the distribution of households

The trip distribution of non-residents - based on the distribution of total employments.

Trip generation – Daily passenger trips4 purposes: • Business Resident • Business non resident• Non business resident• Non business non resident

Trip distribution

Mode choice • Private including taxi • PT

Airport Model


Mode choice

Demographic Data

Production (Arrivals) Attraction (Departures)ObservedPT share

Modelled ObservedPT share

ModelledPriv.trips

PT trips

PT share

Priv.trips

PT trips

PT share

Bus-Res 6% 6107 392 6% 4% 6239 262 4%Bus-

NonRes 12% 6596 903 12% 10% 6745 755 10%NonBus-

Res 13% 13482 2017 13% 15% 13170 2330 15%NonBus-NonRes 27% 14950 5549 27% 28% 14769 5731 28%

Comparison between observed and modelled daily PT shares directions

Assignment

Create a service for Skybus between Melbourne airport and Southern Cross station• Mode 6 like express bus• Headway – 10 mins for all periods• New fare system for mode 6 – flat fare of 13$/trip• Travel time function - Skybus Time (mins) = 1.2 x Car Time (mins)

PT Model - Train Travel Time


• Calculate rail link distance using coordinates • Determine Rail segment speeds

Distance between two stations (km)

Average Train Speed (km/hour)(excluding dwell time)

0 - 1 401 - 1.5 451.5 – 2 502 – 2.5 552.5 – 3 603 – 4 704 – 5 80>5 90

• Train Travel Time function

Train In-vehicle Time (express/stop) = Segment Time + Dwell times (at actual stops, 0.75 mins)

PT Model - Train Travel Time


y = 1.0233xR² = 0.9811

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mod

elle

d

Observed - Metlink

Train Travel Time: New Model vs Metlink (stop all stns)

y = 1.0401xR² = 0.9689

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Mod

elle

d

Observed - Metlink

Train Travel Time: New Model vs Metlink (Express)

VITM

X COEFFICIENT R2

STOP SERVICES 1.02 0.98

EXPRESS SERVICES 1.04 0.97

PT model - Tram Travel Time


• Code Tramway speeds

• Set Tram minimum speed: 10kph

• Calibrate Tram Travel Time function

Tram Time (mins) = A x Car Time (mins) + B x distance (km)

Tramway Route No.

MetlinkTravel Time

(mins)

Distance (km)

Coded Speed (km/h)

Swanston St 3, 16, 64 10 1.4 10

St. Kilda Road3, 5, 16, 64,

67 17 4.4 15.5Elisabeth St 57, 59 12 2.1 11

Collins Street 109, 112 12.3 2.1 10Bourke Street 86, 96 13 2.8 13

Flemmington Road 59 7.5 2 16Royal Pde 19 18.2 4.75 16

Victoria Pde 109 5.6 1.65 17.5Gladstone/Station Streets 109 8 3.4 25.5

Ferrars Street/Cantebury Rd 96 10.5 5.1 29Dandenong Rd 5, 64 13.1 5.1 23.5

Brighton Rd 67 14 3.7 15.5

Tramway network

PT Model - Tram Travel Time Comparison


y = 1.01xR² = 0.77

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Mod

elle

d

Scheduled Time - Metlink

Comparison of Tram Travel Time - AM peak Inbound

y = 0.95xR² = 0.89

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Mod

elle

d

Scheduled Time - Metlink

Comparison of Tram Travel Time - AM peak Outbound

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1 3 5 6 8 16 19 24 48 55 57 59 64 67 70 72 75 78 82 86 96 109 112

min

utes

Tram Routes

Tram Travel Time - AM Peak Inbound

Observed

Modelled

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

3001

3003

3005

3006

3008

3016

3019

3048

3055

3057

3059

3064

3067

3070

3072

3075

3078

3082

3086

3096

3109

3112

min

utes

Tram Routes

Tram Travel Time - AM Peak Outbound

Observed

Modelled

PT Model - Tram Travel Time Profile


Route 3109

Route 3112

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

min

utes

Distance (km)

Observed

Modelled

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

min

utes

Distance (km)

Observed

Modelled

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

min

utes

Distance (km)

Observed

Modelled

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

min

utes

Distance (km)

Observed

Modelled

Route 109

Route 112

PT Crowd Model


Demographic Data

• Approach

• PT capacity input

• Crowd curve

• Allow options to run one or both components

Link Base Adjustment:

Wait Time Adjustment:

• Set up for all 4 time periods

• Parameters based on Melbourne Metro Business case

• Iterative process (input of no of iterations)

• Output: demand loading and restrained (metering) loading

Approach

PT Crowd Model


Demographic Data

PT Vehicle Capacities

Mode Vehicle Type Seating Capacity

Crush Capacity Notes

Bus All types 50 75

Tram Type 1: A, Z, W 42 100 Applies to routes 3,24,30,57,64,67,70,78,82; Route 64 and 67 upgraded to Type 3 in 2021

Tram Type 2: D1 (C1)&Z 39 130 Applies to routes 5,6,8,16,48, 72Tram Type 3: B 74 200 Applies to routes 19,59,75,86Tram Type 4: C1 40 180 Applies to route 109 onlyTram Type 5: C2&D2 58 250 Applies to route 96 only

Tram Type 6: Z(A)&B, BA 58 150 Applies to routes 1,55,112; Route 112 upgraded to Type 5 in 2021

Train Existing 500 1,250Train 6-car NGTs 450 1,250Train 7-car NGTs 530 1,460Train 9-car NGTs 680 1,880V/Line Train 5 x 7 Car 476 571 Applies to Melton/Bacchus Marsh linesV/Line Train 6 Car Velocity 444 489 Applies to Ballarat line onlyV/Line Train 3x8VL, 3x7VL, 2x6VL 518 570 Applies to Geelong line onlyV/Line Train 2x6VL, 3x3VL 310 342 Applies to Bendigo line onlyV/Line Train 1x5H 376 414 Applies to Kyneton line onlyV/Line Train Sprinter 291 320 Applies to Seymour line onlyV/Line Train 2x3VL, 2x5N 296 326 Applies to Traralgon line only

PT Crowd Model


Demographic Data

Crowding factor curves

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Cro

wdi

ng F

acto

r

Utilisation

Existing Trains Metro Trains Tram Type 1 Tram Type 2Tram Type 3 Tram Type 4 Tram Type 5 Tram Type 6Bus VLine 1 VLine 2

Load Factor (% of Seat Occupied)

Perceived In Vehicle Time Factor

Seated Standing

<70% 1 -

70%- 100% 1.1 1.4

Crush Load 1.3 2.0

(Crush Cap – LDF*Seat cap)

(D- LDF*Seat cap)U= ----------------------------

Other model developments


Initialization Module

Demographic Data

Average cost skims

• Initializing and adjusting highway network• Generating zone catchment for public transport Park and Ride model• Producing initial highway and public transport skims and generalised costs for the first iteration of the model run

• For both highway & PT skims • To improve model convergence

Measures to improve model run time• Set up factor file parameter – MAXFERS=1 for first 3 iterations

Model Validation

Validations – Highway Am & PM


Validations – PT System Boarding


Model AM IP PM OP DailyTRAIN 179,568 177,984 220,875 124,935 703,362TRAM 100,548 177,293 136,050 110,201 524,092BUS 71,548 101,135 107,208 50,020 329,910Total 351,665 456,412 464,132 285,155 1,557,365

ObservedTRAIN 173,588 159,219 223,534 129,323 685,664TRAM 85,763 190,657 131,790 106,437 514,647BUS 74,102 114,459 106,998 44,461 340,020Total 333,453 464,335 462,322 280,221 1,540,331

% DiffTRAIN 3% 12% -1% -3% 3%TRAM 17% -7% 3% 4% 2%BUS -3% -12% 0% 13% -3%Total 5% -2% 0% 2% 1%

Validations - Train boarding


Validations – Train Cordon (AM peak)


Cordon Cordon LineObserved PTD 2008 Model AM Difference

Northern Williamstown 4,147 1,502 -64%Werribee 7,282 11,224 54%Sydenham 9,919 12,306 24%Craigieburn 10,310 12,619 22%Upfield 3,455 3,785 10%

Clifton Hill Epping 6,545 8,788 34%Hurstbridge 10,488 11,990 14%

Burnley Ringwood Corridor 20,092 26,065 30%Alamein 2,810 2,708 -4%Glen Waverley 7,766 6,422 -17%

Caulfield Dandenong Corridor 16,097 21,932 36%Frankston 13,353 14,021 5%Sandringham 9,038 5,655 -37%Total 121,303 139,017 15%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Willi

amsto

wnW

errib

eeSy

denh

amCr

aigieb

urn

Upfie

ldEp

ping

Hurst

bridg

eRin

gwoo

d Cor

ridor

Alame

inGle

n Wav

erley

Dand

enon

g Cor

ridor

Frank

ston

Sand

ringh

am

Observed PTD 2008

Model AM

12/15/2011Presentation Title

Validations - Tram boarding

Validations – Comparison of tram loading at CBD cordon


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

AM IP PM OP Daily

Observed

Modelled

Corridor

Observed ModelledAM IP PM OP AM IP PM OP

N 7,453 10,433 8,109 7,027 6,132 13,168 13,354 9,353NW 5,583 6,814 3,510 3,350 2,430 5,751 5,212 3,571S 5,433 6,614 5,577 3,684 5,192 7,315 8,709 5,432SE 4,296 5,926 5,168 4,440 3,665 5,359 3,670 2,778E 4,846 6,998 3,795 4,658 4,055 6,217 2,788 2,321Total 27,611 36,784 26,158 23,157 21,474 37,809 33,733 23,456

Validations - Bus boarding

Conclusions

• Model is robust and comprehensive

• Regional rail demand IP & OP• Park and Ride model with parking capacity constraint • Time choice module• Taxi mode • Mode choice for active mode

Suggestions for further enhancements

AcknowledgementsI wish to thank the DOT, Victoria for allowing to use their data in this presentation

Thank You

[email protected]

2.4 - victorian integrated transport model

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