INTRODUCTION

SPATIAL QUESTIONS AND

METHODOLOGY

Limitations

CONCLUSION

ETHNIC CLEANSING?

ASSAD’S STRATEGIC TARGETS IN SYRIA

Since March 2011, reports show that fighting in Syria has killed an esti-mated 465,000 Syrians and wounded millions. As Bashar al-Assad’s forces continue to crackdown on opposition in Syria, one must reflect upon the people that are impact by such a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. The horrifying scene that is left behind amid fleeing Syrians, ref-ugees, and internally displaced people is unprecedented. A Geospatial analysis of both demographics and source of attacks can help us an-swer who exactly Assad is targeting. The goal of this project is to de-termine the locations of Syrian-government sponsored attacks in Syria and to calculate the impact of attacks on the Sunni population as an opposing identity

"We don't kill our people...no government in the world kills its people, unless it's led by a crazy person."

Bashar al-Assad- December 7, 2011

This project seeks to answer the following spatial questions:

1.Where are the Assad regime’s attacks taking place in Syria?

2.Of those areas of concentration, what are the dominant correspond-ing ethnicities?

Methodology:

To answer the spatial questions, the dataset used a combination of conflict data, ethnicity data, and data on night-time lights as a proxy for population dynamics. A raster calculation of average nighttime light intensity images in Syria serves to understand the magnitude of those that vacated areas of the country. A Kernel Density analysis of Syrian Government Attacks on the Sunni population reveals “hot-spots” of targeted areas in Syria. Joined point data of Sunni demo-graphic data and conflict fatalities serve to answer questions regarding dominant corresponding ethnicities to attacks.

A spatial Analysis of conflict and ethnic data concludes the following:

Syria is getting “darker” while surrounding areas are get-ting lighter.

Of the locations that are getting dark, a large Sunni popu-lation resides.

The Assad regime and affiliates are targeting areas with a large concentration of Sunnis.

The provinces with the most attacks are Aleppo, Idlib, Homs, Hama, and the Suburbs of Damascus.

FINDINGS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Aleppo Damascus DamascusSuburbs

Daraa Deir Ezzor Hama Hasakeh Homs Idlib Lattakia Quneitra Raqqa Sweida Tartous

Percentage of Total Fatalities Caused by Syrian Government

Cartographer: Marina Shalabi

Date: May 08, 2018

DHP 207: GIS for International Applications

Project: Syria Ethnic Cleansing

Sources: Humanitarian Data Exchange , OCHA for Boundary Data. Violations Documen-tation Center for Conflict Data and Humanitarian Tracker Project for Syrian Humanitarian Response for Conflict Data. Fabrice Balance, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy for Ethnic ity Data Photo Credit: *Source: Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/12/world/middleeast/syria -civil-war-damage-maps.html

Projected Coordinate System: WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_37N

This project was limited in scope to using limited ethnic data on Sunni population in Syria. Availability and lack of complete and reliable conflict data severely limited the scope of this project. The most recent census data conducted in Syria was in 2004. This project would have benefited from more recent census and ethnicity data.

Percentage of Fatalities Per Province Syria Night-time Lights 2011-2013

Syria is getting “darker” while surrounding ar-eas are getting lighter

The provinces with the most attacks are Aleppo, Idlib, Homs, Hama, and the Suburbs of Da-mascus.

Total Government-led Fatalities and Popu-

lation by Sub district

The Assad regime and affiliates are targeting ar-eas with a large con-centration of Sunnis

Density of Attacks on Sunni Population