25 june 2020 results review 4qfy20 kolte patil developers patil - 4qfy20... · 2020-06-25 · kolte...

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25 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Kolte Patil Developers HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Valuation affordable KPDL reported operationally strong 4QFY20 with pre-sales of 0.67mn sqft (6% YoY) on continued strong response to Life Republic project in Pune (34% of pre-sales). Total pre-sales for FY20 were at 2.5mn sqft in-line with management guidance of 2.5-2.7mn sqft. 4QFY20 collections remained healthy at Rs 3.8bn, rising 12% YoY. For the year FY20, collection stood at ~Rs 14bn (+9.7% YoY), highest ever in KPDL history. We maintain BUY on KPDL as it has a) comfortable liquidity position (FY20- Rs 2.6bn FCF, Net D/E 0.35x) b) strong affordable residential project mix (at average <Rs 5,500/sqft realization) & c) robust launch pipeline (~8-10mn sqft). Delay in demand recovery due to Covid-19 is a key risk to our estimates. We revise our FY21/FY22 estimates by 109/21% and raise our TP to Rs 240/sh (vs Rs 228/sh earlier). POCM nos beat our estimates: In order to maintain continuity, KPDL also report key financials under POCM. On like to like basis, revenue came in at Rs 2.8bn (-26% YoY, 36% beat), EBITDA at Rs 553mn (-46% YoY, 42% beat) and APAT at Rs 312mn (-32.1% YoY, ~3x our estimates). Construction activity started; leveraging digital channels for sales: KPDL has started construction activity at some of the key sites in Pune and Bengaluru since early May-20. Labor availability is at 40% and KPDL expects it to reach 70% by Sept/Oct-20. Given that most of its projects are in areas which are worst affected by pandemic, KPDL ramped up its digital presence and was able to sell 180 units till April’ 20. KPDL has achieved 50- 60% of its pre-sales run rate in last 30days through digital channels at the moment with good response from NRI customers. We expect 2mn sqft/Rs 11bn, FY20 presales volume/value and Rs 9.5bn collections. Collections to further improve balance sheet position: Consolidated debt reduced to Rs 4.3bn (vs Rs 5.2bn on Dec’19). With ~Rs 1bn of cash, Net D/E stood at 0.35x, well within management guidance of 0.5x. Despite low leverage, company has taken moratorium on loan during April-June period to conserve cash. We expect liquidity position to improve further with proceeds from land monetization deal with Planet Smart City (Rs 910mn), collections for presales done up to FY20 (balance collections - Rs 13.5bn, construction cost of ~Rs 7.5bn, FCF pre tax Rs 6bn) and monetization of ready to move inventory (Rs 2.7bn). FY21 launch pipeline strong: After no new launch in FY20, KPDL is planning to launch seven projects in FY21 across Mumbai and Pune with topline potential of Rs 31bn. Of the four projects planned for Pune, three will be commercial. Three projects planned in Mumbai are redevelopment projects and are for residential/retail. Financial summary YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY (%) 3QFY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Sales 2,217 1,954 13.5 1,302 70.3 8,693 11,295 9,495 12,454 EBITDA 38 767 (95.0) 28 38.3 2,471 2,336 2,177 2,997 APAT (164) 401 - (131) (25.8) 755 657 565 1,121 Diluted EPS (Rs) (2.2) 5.3 - (1.7) (25.8) 10.0 8.7 7.5 14.8 P/E (x) 16.3 18.7 21.7 11.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 7.1 7.3 7.9 5.7 RoE (%) 5.6 5.2 3.7 10.1 Source: Company, HSIE Research BUY CMP (as on 24 June 2020) Rs 162 Target Price Rs 240 NIFTY 10,305 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating BUY BUY Price Target Rs 228 Rs 240 EPS change (%) FY21 FY22 109 21 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code KPDL IN No. of Shares (mn) 76 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 12/162 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 15 52 Week high / low Rs 288/103 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 43.3 (36.8) (21.4) Relative (%) 12.6 (20.9) (10.6) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 74.63 74.63 FIs & Local MFs 0.07 0.03 FPIs 14.17 14.44 Public & Others 11.13 10.90 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7317 Rohan Rustagi [email protected] +91-22-3021-7355

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Page 1: 25 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Kolte Patil Developers Patil - 4QFY20... · 2020-06-25 · Kolte Patil Developers: Results Page | 4 Review 4QFY20 Real Estate Development – NAV

25 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Kolte Patil Developers

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Valuation affordable

KPDL reported operationally strong 4QFY20 with pre-sales of 0.67mn sqft (6%

YoY) on continued strong response to Life Republic project in Pune (34% of

pre-sales). Total pre-sales for FY20 were at 2.5mn sqft in-line with

management guidance of 2.5-2.7mn sqft. 4QFY20 collections remained healthy

at Rs 3.8bn, rising 12% YoY. For the year FY20, collection stood at ~Rs 14bn

(+9.7% YoY), highest ever in KPDL history. We maintain BUY on KPDL as it

has a) comfortable liquidity position (FY20- Rs 2.6bn FCF, Net D/E 0.35x) b)

strong affordable residential project mix (at average <Rs 5,500/sqft realization)

& c) robust launch pipeline (~8-10mn sqft). Delay in demand recovery due to

Covid-19 is a key risk to our estimates. We revise our FY21/FY22 estimates by

109/21% and raise our TP to Rs 240/sh (vs Rs 228/sh earlier).

POCM nos beat our estimates: In order to maintain continuity, KPDL also

report key financials under POCM. On like to like basis, revenue came in at

Rs 2.8bn (-26% YoY, 36% beat), EBITDA at Rs 553mn (-46% YoY, 42% beat)

and APAT at Rs 312mn (-32.1% YoY, ~3x our estimates).

Construction activity started; leveraging digital channels for sales: KPDL

has started construction activity at some of the key sites in Pune and

Bengaluru since early May-20. Labor availability is at 40% and KPDL

expects it to reach 70% by Sept/Oct-20. Given that most of its projects are in

areas which are worst affected by pandemic, KPDL ramped up its digital

presence and was able to sell 180 units till April’ 20. KPDL has achieved 50-

60% of its pre-sales run rate in last 30days through digital channels at the

moment with good response from NRI customers. We expect 2mn sqft/Rs

11bn, FY20 presales volume/value and Rs 9.5bn collections.

Collections to further improve balance sheet position: Consolidated debt

reduced to Rs 4.3bn (vs Rs 5.2bn on Dec’19). With ~Rs 1bn of cash, Net D/E

stood at 0.35x, well within management guidance of 0.5x. Despite low

leverage, company has taken moratorium on loan during April-June period

to conserve cash. We expect liquidity position to improve further with

proceeds from land monetization deal with Planet Smart City (Rs 910mn),

collections for presales done up to FY20 (balance collections - Rs 13.5bn,

construction cost of ~Rs 7.5bn, FCF pre tax Rs 6bn) and monetization of

ready to move inventory (Rs 2.7bn).

FY21 launch pipeline strong: After no new launch in FY20, KPDL is

planning to launch seven projects in FY21 across Mumbai and Pune with

topline potential of Rs 31bn. Of the four projects planned for Pune, three will

be commercial. Three projects planned in Mumbai are redevelopment

projects and are for residential/retail.

Financial summary

YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY (%) 3QFY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 2,217 1,954 13.5 1,302 70.3 8,693 11,295 9,495 12,454

EBITDA 38 767 (95.0) 28 38.3 2,471 2,336 2,177 2,997

APAT (164) 401 - (131) (25.8) 755 657 565 1,121

Diluted EPS (Rs) (2.2) 5.3 - (1.7) (25.8) 10.0 8.7 7.5 14.8

P/E (x)

16.3 18.7 21.7 11.0

EV / EBITDA (x)

7.1 7.3 7.9 5.7

RoE (%)

5.6 5.2 3.7 10.1

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BUY

CMP (as on 24 June 2020) Rs 162

Target Price Rs 240

NIFTY 10,305

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY BUY

Price Target Rs 228 Rs 240

EPS change (%)

FY21 FY22

109 21

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code KPDL IN

No. of Shares (mn) 76

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 12/162

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 15

52 Week high / low Rs 288/103

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 43.3 (36.8) (21.4)

Relative (%) 12.6 (20.9) (10.6)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-19 Mar-20

Promoters 74.63 74.63

FIs & Local MFs 0.07 0.03

FPIs 14.17 14.44

Public & Others 11.13 10.90

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7317

Rohan Rustagi

[email protected]

+91-22-3021-7355

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Page | 2

Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly Financials Snapshot - Standalone

Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY (%) 3QFY20 QoQ (%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Net Sales 2,217 1,954 13.5 1,302 70.3 11,295 8,692 30.0

Material Expenses (1,755) (678) 158.9 (883) 98.9 (7,327) (4,543) 61.3

Employee Expenses (155) (134) 15.7 (133) 16.7 (587) (538) 9.1

Other Operating Expenses (269) (375) (28.3) (259) 3.9 (1,045) (1,141) (8.4)

EBITDA 38 767 (95.0) 28 38.3 2,336 2,471 (5.4)

Interest Cost (132) (318) (58.4) (217) (39.1) (797) (920) (13.4)

Depreciation (29) (36) (19.7) (49) (40.7) (172) (149) 15.3

Other Income 91 25 264.4 42 115.9 470 110 325.7

PBT (32) 438 - (196) 83.8 1,837 1,510 21.6

Minority Interest (143) 66 - 13 - (273) (239) 14.4

Tax 10 (103) - 53 (80.1) (839) (519) 61.7

RPAT (164) 401 - (131) (25.8) 725 755 (3.7)

E/o (adj for tax) - - - - - (67) - -

APAT (164) 401 - (131) (25.8) 657 755 (12.6)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Margin Analysis

MARGIN ANALYSIS 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(bps)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(bps) FY20 FY19

YoY

(bps)

Material Expenses % Net Sales 79.2 34.7 4,445 67.8 1,136 64.9 52.3 1,260

Employee Expenses % Net Sales 7.0 6.9 14 10.2 (321) 5.2 6.2 (99)

Other Operating Expenses %

Net Sales 12.1 19.2 (706) 19.9 (774) 9.3 13.1 (388)

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.7 39.3 (3,753) 2.1 (40) 20.7 28.4 (773)

Tax Rate (%) 33.0 23.5 948 26.9 606 45.7 34.4 1,131

APAT Margin (%) (7.4) 20.5 (2,793) (10.0) 262 6.4 8.7 (224)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Pre-sales Trend

Pre-sales trend 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY

(%) 3QFY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY19

YoY

(%)

Sales Volume (mn sqft) 0.67 0.63 6.3 0.82 (18.3) 2.5 2.7 (7.4)

Sales Value (Rs mn) 3,549 3,553 (0.1) 4,084 (13.1) 13,148 14,316 (8.2)

Average Realization

(Rs/sqft) 5,292 5,623 (5.9) 4,966 6.6 5,280 5,302 (0.4)

Collections (Rs mn) 3,781 3,366 12.3 3,200 18.2 13,680 12,473 9.7

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Net D/E Trend

Pre-sales trend 3Q

FY19

4Q

FY19

1Q

FY20

2Q

FY20

3Q

FY20

4Q

FY20 Comments

Gross Debt 7,640 8,070 7,580 7,710 7,800 7,280

Structure NCDs (2,690) (2,240) (1,890) (1,840) (1,960) (1,960)

Deducting NCD & CCD as they

are equity structured as debt by

KPDL and JVs

Cash (990) (670) (810) (1,090) (640) (980)

Current Investments - - - - - -

Net Debt 3,960 5,160 4,880 4,780 5,200 4,340

Networth 8,090 8,400 9,570 9,360 9,230 9,050 FY19 onwards as per IND AS 115

Net D/E (x) 0.49 0.61 0.51 0.51 0.56 0.48

Source: Company, HSIE Research

4QFY20 revenue: Rs 2.2bn

(+13.5% YoY, 70% QoQ)

EBITDA: Rs 38mn (-95%

YoY, +38% QoQ)

Interest expense stood at

Rs 132mn (-58% YoY, -39%

QoQ)

Adjusted Net Loss came in

at Rs 164mn (vs profit of

Rs 401mn in 4QFY19)

Net debt under CCM

stands at Rs 4.3bn (vs Rs

5.2bn as of Dec-19) and net

D/E at 0.48x (vs 0.56x on

Dec-19)

KDPL generated pre-tax

operating cash flow of Rs

4bn and free cash flow of

Rs 2.6bn in FY20. Cash and

cash equivalent stood at

Rs 980mn on FY20 end

New bookings: KPDL

recorded 0.67mn sqft sales

in 4QFY20 (+6% YoY, -18%

QoQ). Pre-sales were Rs

3.5bn (-0.1% YoY, -13.1%

QoQ)

Realizations came in at Rs

5,292sqft (-6% YoY, +7%

QoQ) in 4QFY20.

Collections came in at Rs

3.8bn (+12% YoY, +18%

QoQ)

For the year FY20, sales

stood at 2.5mn sqft (-7%

YoY), pre-sales at Rs

13.1bn (-8% YoY), average

realization at Rs 5,280 (-

0.4% YoY) and collections

at Rs 13.7bn (+10% YoY)

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Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Valuation- Maintain BUY with NAV target at Rs 240/sh

We have valued KPDL using DCF and arrived at a target price of Rs 240/share.

We do not give any NAV premium. This is to factor in (1) Limited further

property price appreciation & (2) No new land bank additions envisaged. This

increase in target price is on account of decrease in Net Debt as of FY20

Life Republic township project has an FSI potential of 1.7x whereas current

potential saleable area is considered based on an FSI of 1x. In terms of value, this

could add about Rs 64/share to NAV and about ~20mn sqft to the gross saleable

area or (~10mn sqft KPDL share).

Valuation Table

Rs mn New NAV Comments

Gross NAV 24,459 Including ongoing, forthcoming projects and land bank

Less Net debt (6,300) Net Debt as on end FY20 (incl. Structured obligations)

Current Investments 0 Investment in Marketable securities

NAV 18,159

Shares outstanding (mn) 76

NAV/share (Rs) 240

Discount to NAV 0%

No NAV discount (1) due to stability in property prices

post 7-10% correction & (2) New opportunities through

JDA, Affordable housing etc

Target Price (Rs) 240

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Estimates Change Summary

Particulars FY21E New FY21E Old % Change FY22E New FY22E Old % Change

Revenues (Rs mn) 9,495 7,915 20.0 12,454 11,750 6.0

EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,177 1,386 57.1 2,997 2,434 23.2

EBITDA (%) 22.9 17.5 541.7 24.1 20.7 335.4

APAT (Rs mn) 565 271 108.7 1,121 925 21.2

EPS (Rs/sj) 7.5 3.6 108.7 14.8 12.2 21.2

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Change in estimate to

factor better than expected

completion under CCM

and higher EBIDTA

margins as Mumbai

projects are coming for

revenue recognition under

CCM during FY21E

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Page | 4

Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Real Estate Development – NAV Calculation Methodology

We have divided KPDL’s entire land bank (with launch visibility over the next 5

years) into residential projects (based on the information given by the company).

We have arrived at the sale price/sq ft. and the anticipated sales volumes for each

project based on our discussions with industry experts.

We have deducted the cost of construction based on our assumed cost estimates,

which have been arrived at after discussions with industry experts. We have

further deducted marketing and other costs that have been assumed at 5% of the

sales revenue. We have then deducted income tax based on the tax applicable for

the project.

The resultant cash inflows at the project level have been discounted based on

WACC of 13% (cost of equity 15.1% based on beta of 1.1x & debt/equity ratio of

0.4x). All the project level NAVs have then been summed up to arrive at the NAV

of the company. From the NAV, we have deducted the net debt and likely outgo

on balance land payments as of FY20 to arrive at the final valuation of the

company.

Key Valuation Assumption

In the exhibit below we highlight our sales and cost inflation forecasts. We expect

property price appreciation in line with WPI inflation, i.e. 5% and peg cost

inflation slightly higher at 6%. We forecast other costs including marketing, SGA

and employee costs at 15% of sales. We have discounted the cash flows using

13% as hurdle rate.

Base Case Assumption Table

Assumptions %

Discount rate 13%

Annual rate of inflation - sales price 5%

Annual rate of inflation - cost of construction 6%

Other costs - marketing, SGA, employee cost (as % sales) 15%

Tax rate (%) 26%

Base Property Price & Construction Cost Assumption

Location City Prices Rs/sqft Cost Rs/sqft

Wagholi Pune 3,750 1,800

Hinjewadi Pune 5,000 2,100

Kharadi Pune 5,500 2,200

Undri-NIBM Pune 4,800 2,200

Mohamad Wadi Pune 4,500 2,200

Aundh Annexe Pune 5,700 2,500

Boat Club Road Pune 9,500 3,500

Kondhwa Pune 4,000 2,000

Viman Nagar Pune 9,400 3,500

Aundh Pune 7,400 2,600

Kalyani Nagar Pune 8,200 2,800

Bavdhan Pune 4,700 2,000

Andheri Mumbai 14,500 7,500

Vile Parle Mumbai 20,000 9,500

Koramangla Block III Bangalore 7,000 2,400

Hosur Road Bangalore 6,000 2,300

Kannur Road Bangalore 3,300 1,800

Source: HSIE Research

Our pricing assumptions

are moderate and at a 5-

10% discount to the

current prevailing prices

Construction cost

assumptions are higher

than the KPDL estimates.

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Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

NAV Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity to our assumption of property prices

Our model is sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding property prices.

For every 1% change in the base property prices, the NAV will change by

approximately 2.7%

% change in sale price -10 -5 0 5 10

NAV/share (Rs) 175 208 240 272 302

Change in NAV (%) (27.1) (13.4) - 13.5 26.1

Sensitivity of NAV to changes in sales’ inflation

In our base case, we have assumed annual sale price inflation of 5%. For every

100bps increase in the annual sale price inflation, the NAV will increase by

approximately 6.9%

Sales inflation rates (%) 3 4 5 6 7

NAV/share (Rs) 208 224 240 256 272

Change in NAV (%) (13.4) (6.7) - 6.9 13.7

Sensitivity of NAV to changes in cost inflation

In our base case, we have assumed cost inflation to be 6%. For every 100bps

increase in construction cost inflation, the NAV will change by approximately

4.5%

Cost inflation rates (%) 4 5 6 7 8

NAV/share (Rs) 262 251 240 229 218

Change in NAV (%) 9.2 4.6 - (4.5) (9.1)

The combined impact of a 100bps increase in sale price inflation and cost inflation

will be a NAV increase of 2.4%.

Sensitivity of NAV to changes in the discount rate

In our base case, we have assumed a discount rate of 13%. For every 100bps

increase in the discount rate, the NAV will fall by ~5.1%.

WACC rates (%) 11 12 13 14 15

NAV/share (Rs) 264 252 240 227 215

Change in NAV (%) 10.3 5.2 - (5.1) (10.2)

1% increase in average

base sale price impacts our

NAV positively by 2.7%

Every 100bps increase in

sales price inflation

impacts our NAV

positively by 6.9%

100bps increase in cost

inputs decreases our NAV

by 4.5%

100bps increase in

discounting rate impacts

our NAV negatively by

5.1%

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Page | 6

Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Financials Consolidated Income Statement Year ending March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 7,538 9,656 12,192 8,693 11,295 9,495 12,454

Growth (%) 8.2 28.1 26.3 (28.7) 29.9 (15.9) 31.2

Material Expenses 4,252 6,082 7,819 4,543 7,327 5,761 7,463

Employee Expenses 480 422 370 538 587 616 678

Other Operating Expenses 821 753 970 1,141 1,045 940 1,317

EBIDTA 1,984 2,400 3,033 2,471 2,336 2,177 2,997

EBIDTA (%) 26.3 24.9 24.9 28.4 20.7 22.9 24.1

EBIDTA Growth (%) (2.9) 21.0 26.4 (18.5) (5.5) (6.8) 37.7

Other Income 165 82 156 111 470 131 131

Depreciation 152 149 153 149 172 184 218

EBIT 1,998 2,334 3,036 2,433 2,633 2,125 2,910

Interest 840 860 987 920 797 956 969

PBT 1,158 1,473 2,049 1,513 1,837 1,169 1,942

Tax 535 624 493 518 840 374 641

Minority Interest (34) 23 (322) (240) (273) (230) (180)

Share of associates - - - - - - -

RPAT 623 872 1,234 755 724 565 1,121

EO items (net of tax) - - (18) - (67) - -

APAT 589 872 1,216 755 657 565 1,121

APAT Growth (%) (9.8) 48.0 39.5 (37.9) (13.0) (14.0) 98.4

EPS 7.8 11.5 16.0 10.0 8.7 7.5 14.8

EPS Growth (%) (9.8) 48.0 39.5 (37.9) (13.0) (14.0) 98.4

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Consolidated Balance Sheet As at March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 758 758 758 758 758 758 758

Reserves 7,066 7,880 9,080 7,643 8,292 8,659 9,583

Total Shareholders Funds 7,824 8,638 9,838 8,401 9,050 9,417 10,341

Minority Interest 3,024 2,666 2,075 59 149 379 559

Long Term Debt 6,443 1,417 1,478 2,623 1,985 2,005 2,205

Short Term Debt 1,469 3,903 2,527 3,207 3,812 3,812 3,812

Total Debt 7,912 5,320 4,005 5,830 5,797 5,817 6,017

Deferred Taxes 25 (25) (225) (1,755) (1,408) (1,408) (1,408)

Long Term Provisions & Others 174 2,432 3,270 2,585 2,785 2,650 2,650

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 18,959 19,032 18,964 15,121 16,372 16,855 18,158

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 1,137 1,061 968 837 736 852 934

CWIP 19 22 - 5 6 6 6

Goodwill 211 211 207 207 2,013 2,013 2,013

Other Non Current Assets 1,689 1,662 2,632 2,621 2,818 2,179 2,199

Inventories 20,390 20,607 18,364 28,270 27,582 26,014 27,298

Debtors 1,468 1,770 1,828 1,079 617 1,431 1,877

Cash & Equivalents 849 797 1,183 638 972 817 1,110

ST Loans & Advances, Others 1,949 1,972 1,208 861 944 2,220 2,645

Total Current Assets 24,655 25,147 22,583 30,848 30,114 30,482 32,930

Creditors 1,538 1,761 2,498 2,535 2,825 3,107 3,418

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 7,214 7,311 4,929 16,862 16,492 16,096 17,031

Total Current Liabilities 8,752 9,072 7,427 19,397 19,317 19,203 20,449

Net Current Assets 15,903 16,075 15,156 11,451 10,797 11,279 12,481

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 18,959 19,032 18,964 15,121 16,372 16,855 18,158

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Page | 7

Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Consolidated Cash Flow Year ending March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PBT before minority 1,158 1,473 2,028 1,512 1,837 1,169 1,942

Non-operating & EO items (132) (29) 60 (0) (370) (131) (131)

Taxes (652) (494) (781) (706) (649) (374) (641)

Interest expenses 840 860 987 920 797 956 969

Depreciation 152 149 154 149 172 184 218

Working Capital Change (1,002) (543) (878) (2,552) 1,057 (637) (909)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 364 1,417 1,569 (676) 2,844 1,167 1,448

Capex (328) (77) (42) (24) (105) (300) (300)

Free cash flow (FCF) 37 1,340 1,528 (700) 2,739 867 1,148

Investments (1,046) 496 417 183 (550) 111 111

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,374) 419 376 159 (655) (189) (189)

Share capital Issuance - - 3.40 2.30 - - -

Debt Issuance 2,310 (655) (672) 1,114 (783) 20 200

Interest expenses (696) (792) (1,002) (755) (822) (956) (969)

Dividend (421) (262) (146) (205) (197) (197) (197)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 1,194 (1,709) (1,817) 157 (1,803) (1,133) (966)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 185 126 128 (361) 386 (155) 293

Opening Cash 367 552 678 806 446 972 817

Other Bank Deposits not considered as CC&CE 297 119 377 193 140 0 0

Closing Cash & Equivalents 849 797 1,183 638 972 817 1,110

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Key Ratios

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 43.6 37.0 35.9 47.7 35.1 39.3 40.1

EBITDA Margin 26.3 24.9 24.9 28.4 20.7 22.9 24.1

EBIT Margin 26.5 24.2 24.9 28.0 23.3 22.4 23.4

APAT Margin 7.8 9.0 10.0 8.7 5.8 6.0 9.0

RoE 7.3 10.9 9.9 5.6 5.2 3.7 10.1

Core RoCE 10.4 13.9 19.7 17.0 11.0 13.4 18.5

RoCE 12.1 12.3 16.0 14.3 16.7 12.8 16.6

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 46.2 42.4 24.1 34.2 45.7 32.0 33.0

Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

Inventory (days) 849 775 583 979 902 1,030 781

Debtors (days) 60 61 54 61 27 39 48

Payables (days) 66 62 64 106 87 114 96

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 843 774 573 934 843 955 734

Debt/EBITDA (x) 4.0 2.2 1.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.0

Net D/E 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Interest Coverage 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.6 3.3 2.2 3.0

PER SHARE DATA

EPS (Rs/sh) 7.8 11.5 16.0 10.0 8.7 7.5 14.8

CEPS (Rs/sh) 9.8 13.5 18.1 11.9 10.9 9.9 17.7

DPS (Rs/sh) 1.2 2.3 3.2 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.6

BV (Rs/sh) 103.3 114.0 129.8 110.9 119.4 124.2 136.4

VALUATION

P/E 20.8 14.1 10.1 16.3 18.7 21.7 11.0

P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2

EV/EBITDA 9.7 7.0 5.0 7.1 7.3 7.9 5.7

OCF/EV (%) 1.9 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.2 0.1 0.1

FCF/EV (%) 0.2 8.0 10.1 (4.0) 16.0 5.0 6.7

FCFE/Market Cap 19.1 5.6 7.0 3.4 15.9 7.2 11.0

Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

11-Jul-19 251 BUY 311

7-Aug-19 235 BUY 311

22-Sep-19 255 BUY 311

10-Oct-19 235 BUY 311

12-Nov-19 269 BUY 313

9-Jan-20 239 BUY 317

9-Feb-20 238 BUY 310

2-Mar-20 213 BUY 310

22-Apr-20 163 BUY 228

25-Jun-20 162 BUY 240

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Jun

-20

Kolte-Patil TP

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Kolte Patil Developers: Results Review 4QFY20

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