Deprivation levels and trends across East Sussex: Understanding the IMD2007

East Sussex Strategic Partnership Board

27th November 2008

Tom Smith and Stefan Noble

Oxford Consultants for Social Inclusion (OCSI)

Overview

1. What does the IMD identify?

2. How is East Sussex performing (on other indicators)?

3. Understanding the IMD results

Two health warnings …

• IMD is part of the story - not the only source …

• Most recent data is from 2007, recent economic events not covered …

Deprivation levels – IMD 2007

• Blue = more deprived Yellow = less deprived

Change in deprivation – IMD2004-07

• Blue = increasing deprivation Yellow = decreasing deprivation

1) What does the IMD identify?

• IMD 2004 to 2007 suggests East Sussex more deprived– Moved from 11th to 7th most deprived shire County– All five Districts are more deprived in IMD 2007– 78% of small areas are more deprived in IMD 2007

• IMD domain analysis– Increased relative deprivation levels in key IMD domains

(Income, Employment, Health, Crime)– Education domain little change over time-points– Sharp deterioration in the Living Environment Domain

2) How is East Sussex performing?

Summary of East Sussex performance

Improving situation Worsening situation

Direction of travel

•Economic: Rising levels of jobs and enterprises, rising workplace earnings. •Education: Rising pupil attainment and adult skill levels.•Health: Increases in life expectancy and falling mortality from key diseases.•Crime: Reduction in acquisitive crime

•Health: Rising levels of people claiming benefits as a result of poor health and disability - Incapacity Benefit (IB), Attendance Allowance (AA), Disability Living Allowance (DLA)•Crime: Increase in violent crime.

Relative performance

•Skills: East Sussex has seen greater improvements in Adult Skill levels than the national average•Crime: Greater reduction in non-violent crime than across England as a whole.

•Economic: Smaller increases in enterprise levels and wages than the national average. •Benefits: East Sussex experienced an increase in the overall proportion of working age people claiming benefit. Faster rises in health benefits (AA, DLA, IB), smaller reductions in Jobseekers Allowance and Income Support.•Education: Smaller improvements in raising pupil attainment levels at KS2-4 than the national average•Health: Less significant reduction in mortality rates from key diseases

3) Understanding the IMD results• County is improving on a range of key indicators …

• … But, not keeping pace with other areas– Relative increase in deprivation levels

• Caution over using modelled data to assess change– Living environment - biggest increase in deprivation across

County – 19 of 21 LADs with greatest increases in combined air

pollution levels are coastal Districts, including all 5 East Sussex

– Removing the 2 modelled domains results in Hastings position not changing between IMD 2004 and 2007

• Living Environment and Barriers to Housing and Services over-estimate increase in relative deprivation

Change in deprivation – IMD2004-07

• Blue = increasing deprivation Yellow = decreasing deprivation

Change excluding domains

• Blue = increasing deprivation Yellow = decreasing deprivation

Other findings

• Living conditions have improved since the IMD2007– Improved faster than between IMD2004 and 2007 – But … still not keeping pace with other areas

• The most deprived areas fared better than the average– The 13 areas in most deprived national 10% improved ranking

• Hastings IMD position is stable, once impact of living environment is removed– Income and crime domains showed improvement – 50% of areas in Hastings are improving

• Some indicators show good news, eg adult skills, crime– Not all these indicators included in the IMD

Summary• Living conditions … generally improving … but not

keeping pace with elsewhere– Leading to increase in relative deprivation levels (IMD)

• IMD likely to overstate the increase in relative deprivation levels – Impact of modelled domains is significant– Analysis of change over time should focus on direct

measures of deprivation, not modelled

• Key socio-economic indicators show good news on direction of travel, but …

• Challenges where County not keeping pace