273 roots of conflict

5
A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.com Call 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected] The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 1 of 5 Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.] THE ROOTS OF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ Joseph Coates from chapter seven of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR Volume II: Trade Towers/War Clouds As a futurist, What can we learn if we trace back to the seeming historic roots of the Iraq War? What in the origins of Islam and its earliest clashes with the West foreshadowed 9/11 and the first and second Gulf Wars? How have the modem countries of the Middle East come into existence, and what has Western intervention been about? How do Afghanistan, al Qaeda, Egypt, Kurdistan, Iran, and Turkey relate to one another-and to us? Above all, what are the main lessons we might draw from the tale, and why is state-based terrorism arguably the biggest threat of all?—Editor The origins of violent conflict among and between nations are like a banyan tree. A stem grows and eventually some of its branches drop shoots to the ground that, in turn, flourish and become subsidiary roots. International conflict, itself, is also like a banyan tree. There is no single cause for hostility among or between nations, although there usually is a single or a small cluster of trigger events that move the conflict to violence. Iraq is the site of some of the oldest ancient empires, which were located between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in the area of Mesopotamia. Those ancient empires grew, flourished, were in conflict, went into decline, and passed into history. Without recounting all of that, let us look for a somewhat more recent root of conflict, the establishment of Islam, sometimes known as Muhammadanism. Islam had its origins in what is now Saudi Arabia. It can in some ways be looked at as a successor religion to Christianity, the way that Christianity is a successor religion to Judaism. Islam embraces many of the Hebrew and Christian beliefs but also builds on a number of those beliefs. Abraham, the Jewish prophet, and Jesus were in a line of prophets of God, the most recent of whom was Muhammad. Historically, each of the prophets brought a new message and changes in beliefs. While many people held to the older religions, others embraced the new. Muhammad lived from 570 until 632 A.D. The holy book of Islam, the Quran (or Koran), lays down the ideal life reflecting the will of God (known in Islam as Allah) and requiring that Muslims (those adherent to Islam) engage in certain routine activities every day: for example, praying five times a day while facing the holy city of Mecca. It also requires, if possible, its adherents to make a trip to Mecca in one's lifetime. Islam is strongly family oriented and strongly believes that religion is or should be a critical component of the governance of a well-ordered society. Without reviewing details, it is sufficient to note that Islam expanded rapidly, reaching its geographic apex in the fifteenth century when it extended from southern Spain, across all of North Africa, and east into what is now known as the Middle East and into India and Pakistan. It moved up the Mediterranean through Turkey into what is now the Balkans. Its eastern European expansion was halted in Austria, first in 1529 and finally in 1683, and its westward European expansion at Granada, Spain, in 1492. The enormous scope of Islam was governed through leaders, the caliphs, who brought together religion and civic governance. This relationship is the opposite of what we in America see as a central feature of good government, that government and religion are unequivocally and distinctly different social functions. For us, government is forbidden to support any particular form of religion. Islam embraces the reverse of that basic belief. With an empire so large, with the passage of time, with the increase of wealth, and with the differentiation of customs and interests, the different parts of the empire begin to break into conflicting factions. The core and the central part of the Islamic empire which lies in the regions of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, were crossed by international travel routes to and from India, China, and the rest of the Orient. Inevitably, conflict arose because the Middle East is the site of the origins of Christianity, Judaism, and Islam. What is now Israel was a crossover point of these three religions. The conflict led to the military ventures called the Crusades, three of which, in the eleventh, twelfth, and thirteenth centuries, attempted to recapture the Christian Holy Land from the Muslims. The Crusades built a barrier of hostility, fear, threat, and antagonism between the Christian West and Islamic East. A very early source of conflict within Islam was the question of succession to the leadership of the religion. The principal split, between the Sunnis and Shiites, was over who was the legitimate successor to Muhammad. Today, most of Islam is composed of Sunnis and Shiites. In Iraq, during Saddam's reign, the Shiite majority (60 percent) was governed and repressed by a Sunni minority. THE FLOURISHING BANYAN TREE OF CONFLICT The long-term roots of conflict were not solely within Islam or directly religiously based. The Industrial Revolution never occurred in Islamic territories as it did in the West. Consequently, in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries the West grew tremendously in physical resources, skills, competence, military experience,

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Page 1: 273 Roots of Conflict

A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.comCall 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected]

The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq • Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 1 of 5Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.]

THE ROOTS OF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQJoseph Coates from chapter seven of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WARVolume II: Trade Towers/War Clouds

As a futurist, What can we learn if we trace back to the seeming historic roots of the Iraq War? What in the origins of Islam andits earliest clashes with the West foreshadowed 9/11 and the first and second Gulf Wars? How have the modem countries of theMiddle East come into existence, and what has Western intervention been about? How do Afghanistan, al Qaeda, Egypt,Kurdistan, Iran, and Turkey relate to one another-and to us? Above all, what are the main lessons we might draw from the tale,and why is state-based terrorism arguably the biggest threat of all?—Editor

The origins of violent conflict amongand between nations are like a banyantree. A stem grows and eventually someof its branches drop shoots to theground that, in turn, flourish andbecome subsidiary roots. Internationalconflict, itself, is also like a banyan tree.There is no single cause for hostilityamong or between nations, althoughthere usually is a single or a small clusterof trigger events that move the conflictto violence.

Iraq is the site of some of the oldestancient empires, which were locatedbetween the Tigris and Euphrates Riversin the area of Mesopotamia. Thoseancient empires grew, flourished, werein conflict, went into decline, and passedinto history. Without recounting all ofthat, let us look for a somewhat morerecent root of conflict, the establishmentof Islam, sometimes known asMuhammadanism.

Islam had its origins in what is nowSaudi Arabia. It can in some ways belooked at as a successor religion toChristianity, the way that Christianity isa successor religion to Judaism. Islamembraces many of the Hebrew andChristian beliefs but also builds on anumber of those beliefs. Abraham, theJewish prophet, and Jesus were in a lineof prophets of God, the most recent ofwhom was Muhammad. Historically,each of the prophets brought a newmessage and changes in beliefs. Whilemany people held to the older religions,others embraced the new.

Muhammad lived from 570 until 632A.D. The holy book of Islam, the Quran(or Koran), lays down the ideal lifereflecting the will of God (known in

Islam as Allah) and requiring thatMuslims (those adherent to Islam)engage in certain routine activities everyday: for example, praying five times aday while facing the holy city of Mecca.It also requires, if possible, its adherentsto make a trip to Mecca in one's lifetime.Islam is strongly family oriented andstrongly believes that religion is orshould be a critical component of thegovernance of a well-ordered society.

Without reviewing details, it issufficient to note that Islam expandedrapidly, reaching its geographic apex inthe fifteenth century when it extendedfrom southern Spain, across all of NorthAfrica, and east into what is now knownas the Middle East and into India andPakistan. It moved up theMediterranean through Turkey intowhat is now the Balkans. Its easternEuropean expansion was halted inAustria, first in 1529 and finally in 1683,and its westward European expansion atGranada, Spain, in 1492.

The enormous scope of Islam wasgoverned through leaders, the caliphs,who brought together religion and civicgovernance. This relationship is theopposite of what we in America see as acentral feature of good government, thatgovernment and religion areunequivocally and distinctly differentsocial functions. For us, government isforbidden to support any particular formof religion. Islam embraces the reverseof that basic belief.

With an empire so large, with thepassage of time, with the increase ofwealth, and with the differentiation ofcustoms and interests, the differentparts of the empire begin to break into

conflicting factions. The core and thecentral part of the Islamic empire whichlies in the regions of Turkey, Iraq, andIran, were crossed by internationaltravel routes to and from India, China,and the rest of the Orient.

Inevitably, conflict arose because theMiddle East is the site of the origins ofChristianity, Judaism, and Islam. Whatis now Israel was a crossover point ofthese three religions. The conflict led tothe military ventures called theCrusades, three of which, in theeleventh, twelfth, and thirteenthcenturies, attempted to recapture theChristian Holy Land from the Muslims.The Crusades built a barrier of hostility,fear, threat, and antagonism betweenthe Christian West and Islamic East.

A very early source of conflict withinIslam was the question of succession tothe leadership of the religion. Theprincipal split, between the Sunnis andShiites, was over who was the legitimatesuccessor to Muhammad. Today, mostof Islam is composed of Sunnis andShiites. In Iraq, during Saddam's reign,the Shiite majority (60 percent) wasgoverned and repressed by a Sunniminority.

THE FLOURISHING BANYAN TREEOF CONFLICT

The long-term roots of conflict werenot solely within Islam or directlyreligiously based. The IndustrialRevolution never occurred in Islamicterritories as it did in the West.Consequently, in the eighteenth andnineteenth centuries the West grewtremendously in physical resources,skills, competence, military experience,

Page 2: 273 Roots of Conflict

A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.comCall 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected]

The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq • Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 2 of 5Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.]

military power, and wealth.In order to secure its new colonial

empires, the West became more andmore aggressive toward countries thataffected its trade routes. They wereoften, incidentally, Islamic. To pacify orneutralize threats to its commerce, theWest in many cases took countries orregions of countries under its control.The countries had forced upon themchanges, concessions, laws, and rules tothe advantage of the West and to thedisadvantage and humiliation of Islamicpeople and countries.

That imperial aggression by Europe,notably by Great Britain and France,reached a peak at the time of World WarI (WWI). The Ottoman Empire,centered in what is now Turkey, made aterrible mistake in WWI. It sided withGermany rather than the Allies. As aresult, when the conflict ended, it lostmost of its empire. The residual corebecame Turkey, and the empiredisappeared. It had already been inadvanced decay and was widely referredto in that period as "the sick man ofEurope." The empire lost land in theBalkans, while other portions of theMiddle East were set up as independentcountries.

In bringing about change, the Britishand the French were not particularlyconcerned about the long-termdevelopment of these regions, but ratherconcentrated on the short-termadvantages to themselves while dividingup the empire into independent nationsor dependencies. For example, onetrouble spot involving a large populationknown as Kurds should have formedKurdistan. The postwar arrangementsinstead divided Kurdistan into partsassigned to what is now Turkey, Iran,Iraq, and Syria. That has been a chronicsource of unrest since the Kurds areethnically and culturally a cohesivegroup who have for seven decadeslooked forward to establishing their ownnation.

The British set up and enforced theposition of its own preferredgovernment in what is now Iraq. Thatwas unsatisfactory and led to a rebellionand a new government, which continued

for years and preformed badly. Stillanother rebellion led to theestablishment of the Baath Party, whichgained control of Iraq, and to the rise ofSad dam Hussein.

Other post-WWI settlements meantlong-term trouble in Palestine. What isnow Israel was set up in such a way thatthat British were in control of the area.They saw maintaining stability as aprimary goal and did little or nothing tosatisfy the desires of the local people forself-governance and independence.After World War II (WWII), with itsJewish holocaust, the massive exodus ofthe Jews from Europe who were lookingfor a new homeland saw Palestine as alogical place. Other places, notablySouth Africa, had been considered andrejected.

Massive migration of European Jewsinto what is now Israel aggravatedhostility with the local Arab people, whosaw these Europeans with bettereducation and more skills as socially andeconomically isolated, but economicallysuperior to them. This is hardly thecondition for peaceful coexistence. TheIsraelis ultimately rebelled againstBritish control, engaging in their ownterrorist activities against both Arabsand the British governors. Theyeventually drove Britain out and set upthe state of Israel. Other postwarpolitical developments led to theindependence of Syria and Lebanon onthe eastern coast of the Mediterraneanand the independence of Iran (known inancient times as Persia), a very largeIslamic country east of Iraq andsoutheast of Turkey.

A bit further east, with post-WWIIindependence, India broke into HinduIndia and Muslim Pakistan. Pakistanitself was in two separate parts, one tothe east of India and one to thenorthwest of India. That arrangementwas unstable and led to the split into twocountries: Pakistan, now to thenorthwest of India, and Bangladesh tothe east of India, both Muslim states.

One can see how the geographic andrough-cut political situation followingWWII fostered dissension, politicaldissatisfaction, unsatisfied nationalism,

and broken-up ethnic groups ascontinuing sources of politicaldiscontent.

OIL AS A NEW ISSUE

As if that were not enough, thebanyan tree of conflict developed morenew shoots and roots. An importantevent after WWII, focusing theeconomic attention of the rest of theworld on the Middle East to a previouslyunheralded degree, was the discovery ofmassive deposits of oil in the ArabianPeninsula, now comprised of SaudiArabia, Kuwait, and several sheikdomsalong the Persian Gulf known as UnitedArab Emirates. Massive deposits of oilwere also discovered in Iraq.

All of these areas became importantpolitically to Europe and the UnitedStates because of the increasingconsumption of petroleum inindustrialized nations. At first oilprovided fuel for automobiles, trucks,and airplanes. Its use quickly expandedinto all forms of energy production: forexample, in electric power plants.

The banyan tree of conflict hasprospered since the founding andexpansion of Islam, its encounters withthe West, and its several periods ofdeterioration and breakup. The majorinterventions by Europeans, long afterthe Crusades, were to protect the SuezCanal and other trade routes to theMiddle and Far East. This led to severalcountries being governed or controlledby France and Great Britain and othernon-Islamic nations.

The end of WWI played a significantfactor in bringing about hostility andconflict in Islam, since the postwarsettlements usually involved arbitrary,unnatural geographic boundaries andthe arbitrary imposition of governments.For example, the British forced amonarchy on Iraq. Similarly, theformation of a separate Lebanon andSyria, previously French protectorates,created hostility since the Syrians feltthat Lebanon should be a part of Syria.

IRAN: CASE STUDY

Understanding the situation in Iran isa key to much of what has happened in

Page 3: 273 Roots of Conflict

A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.comCall 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected]

The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq • Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 3 of 5Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.]

the Middle East. Iran, formerly knownas Persia, was an absolute monarchy inthe beginning of the twentieth century.It drew up its first constitution in 1906,and, in 1925, the Pahlavi Dynasty cameinto power. Persia's name was changedto Iran in 1935, and the second ShahPahlavi came to power in 1944,pursuing goals of westernization of themilitary, resources, transportation, andother infrastructure.

Iran, rich in oil, became a focus ofwestern oil companies' attention. It'enjoyed substantial prosperity from theoil industry and developed a new middleand upper class. The rest of thepopulation, 96 percent Muslim, did notenjoy uniform prosperity. The mass ofordinary people gained nothing, but sawtoo many of their traditional valuescontinually being affronted, not just bythe Westerners, who were a small part ofthe population, but by those Iranianswho were adopting and adapting toWestern modes of life and culture. Itreached the point where some of thetraditional religious leaders spoke outaggressively against this trend.

Most aggressive was the AyatollahKhomeini, who was finally expelledfrom Iran by the Shah Pahlavi. Hemoved to Paris and over some 15 yearssent recorded messages back to hishome country, which were widelyplayed, deploring the assault on thefundamental values of Islam. Amovement grew more and more hostileto those supporting and promoting theWestern cultural intrusion. Finally, theunrest became so great that the shah leftthe country and the Ayatollah Khomeinireturned to set up a new government,based on fundamental religiousprincipals. The hostility to the Westfocused on the United States. The unrulymasses attacked the U.S. embassy in1979, and Americans had to flee.

Today, 24 years later, the UnitedStates still does not have diplomaticrelations with Iran, and President Bushhas marked it as one of three countrieson an "Axis of Evil." The importantkernel of this story is how the rebelliousmasses under religious leadership havemade the affront to the general Muslim

population's religious and culturalvalues a virtually universal issuethroughout Islam. As the leadershipeither directly or indirectly allowed moreand more westerners to move into theircountries, often with a practical goal ofdeveloping resources, they failed toprovide a broad sweep of benefits toeveryone in the country. Those mostfully committed to traditional Islam as away of life were the ones most affrontedand benefited the least from foreignintrusions.

TURKEY: CASE STUDY

No two countries are alike. The storyof Turkey is very different from that ofIran. The shift of political power in Islamto the Ottoman Empire created newshoots of discontent and disquiet. TheOttomans emerged out of Anatolia (nowTurkey) in the early fourteenth centuryto become the dominant power in theIslamic world, reclaiming andexpanding old boundaries. As theOttoman Empire eventually weakenedand decay set in, local unrest flourishedas a further aggravation of conflict.

The end of WWI and total militarydefeat led to the independence of Turkeyand the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.A new leader, Mustafa Kernel Ataturk,saw only one future for Turkey, thesuppression of the traditional social,economic, and legal constraints put inplace by the Ottoman Empire andtraditional beliefs. He began aggressivechanges toward a secular society, morespecifically a society in which religionand government were clearly separatefrom each other. He abolished thereligious courts. He then banned themen's traditional hat, the fez, as asymbol of the old ways of living andbehaving. Ataturk was in some ways theGeorge Washington of modern Turkey.

However, the transition to a modernTurkish state was not easy. The newcountry included a large Kurdish regionand population which has been achronic source of problems. The TurkishKurds, along with those in Iraq and Iran,have been seeking independentnationhood since well before WWI. In

any case, through thick and thin, Turkeyhas survived, with the armed forcesoften keeping the country together as itmoved to an increasingly constitution-based democratic government. Turkeyhas come so far that it is now a candidatefor joining the European EconomicCommunity. On the other hand, it stillhas its Kurdish problem and is alsofacing a rising fundamentalistmovement.

EGYPT: CASE STUDY

Egypt is quite a different case. TheBritish took over Egypt as a protectorateand held that control through the end ofWWII, despite recognizing Egypt'sindependence in 1922. Egypt isoverwhelmingly Muslim, but includes avaried minority population who arerelatively secure and stable. As withmany of the Islamic countries, themilitary has played a critical role innational development because it hasbeen the only force able to maintaininternal stability.

As a practical matter, the military inthe Middle Eastern countries wereusually westernized in terms of themilitary equipment and technology theyhad and were often familiar with theways of the West through trainingoverseas. The military has often played arole in promoting stability andsupporting democracy. In other cases,the military became monarchs of a newtyranny.

AFGHANISTAN: CASE STUDY

Afghanistan has been the site ofconflict between Russia or the SovietUnion and Great Britain for dominanceover the country. Entirely tribalized as itstands today, it is made up of mostlySunni Muslims, but its ethic groups, theUzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Pushtans,are a continuing source of internalconflict who more or less maintained thecountry as a tribal society. It wasconsolidated into a kingdom in theeighteenth century.

In 1973, a military coup brought in arepublican form of government whichwas favorable to the Soviet Union. The

Page 4: 273 Roots of Conflict

A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.comCall 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected]

The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq • Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 4 of 5Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.]

United States, presumably operatingthrough the CIA, worked hard tosupport internal guerrilla fightingagainst the pro-Soviet regime.

They finally succeeded in driving outthe Soviet-oriented government. TheUN-assisted treaty in 1988 facilitatedwithdrawal of Soviet troops. In the yearsof struggle, 2 million Afghans died and 6million moved to neighboring countriesfor safety and security.

The religious fundamentalist group,the Taliban, fought the pro-Sovietgovernment and eventually took overand instituted extensive, extremelyconservative measures: for example,forcing women into very modest,traditional clothing. They forced schoolsto be much more fundamentalist in theirorientation. They kept women at homeand out of the work force and school.They forced the nation into an extremelystrict and oppressive version of Islamiclife.

The fundamentalists also offered ahome base for Osama bin Laden who setup training camps and bases inAfghanistan's almost inaccessiblehighlands. Once it was established thatal Qaeda, bin Laden's group, wasresponsible for the 9/11 attacks on theUnited States, the U.S. military movedin both to wipe out al Qaeda and theTaliban government that wassupporting them. Another goal was toestablish a stable, broadly basedgovernment in Afghanistan.

It is such a rugged country of verytough people that it has been difficult forAfghanistan to become a modem nation.It was and remains a tribal society with ahighly questionable and ineffectivecentral government. The extent to whichreform has worked or continues to workand the rate of recovery in Afghanistanare outside the scope of this essay. U.S.intelligence has reported that by nomeans were all members of al Qaedaeliminated. Some escaped to othercountries while others may still behidden in Afghanistan. They are stillvery much a threat.

How does this tie in with Iraq? Aspreviously mentioned, the banyan tree ofconflict developed new shoots and roots

after WWI. Iraq was set up under Britishcontrol with a more or less arbitraryform of government, with no popularsupport. Through a series of coups,there was a takeover by an extremistparty, the Baath, whose influence spreadbeyond Iraq and throughout much of theMiddle East. General Kassem, whosucceeded the Hashamite monarchy, rana relatively open government, evengiving opportunities for bureaucraticemployment to the Shiites and Kurds.He was overthrown and executed by theBaathists in 1963. The repressive,totalitarian Baath party took over in1968 with Sad dam Hussein as second-in-command. He then became first-in-command and ruled with an iron fist.

A war between Iraq and Iran began in1981 and ended in 1988 with the UnitedNations' brokered settlement. In 1991,Iraq invaded Kuwait to take control of itsrich oil fields. The Iraqi government hadlong claimed that Kuwait washistorically a part of Iraq. This led theUnited States to intervene, with UNsupport and multinational involvement,to drive Iraq out and liberate Kuwait.

Rather than continuing the fighting tocrush the army of Iraq, the war insteadended too soon. One of the side effectswas that the Shiites, who were strong insouthern Iraq, were massacred on alarge scale. They had rebelled and whenthe Americans withdrew unexpectedly,Saddam worked his vengeance.

The Kurd's story is not quite as bad,because when a no-fly zone was set up inIraq, it acted as an umbrella protectingthe Kurds from attack for over a decade.They prospered and flourished in anincreasingly participatory society. TheKurds, however, remained suspicious oflong-term U.S. interest because of thefailure to help their rebellion in 1991.The Kurds had suffered tremendoushorrors under Saddam, including thepoison gassing of thousands of women,children, and the elderly in Saddam'spunitive strikes against them.

While Saddam was leading a seculartotalitarian state, he manipulated thereligious commitment of the people tosupport the regime. He built hisgovernment around the people of his

"hometown" region who were Sunni,filling positions in the military andgovernment with them. This more orless assured their loyalty because theirprosperity and success depended uponSaddam maintaining command.

The U.S. government claimed afterthe actions in Afghanistan that al Qaeda,or at least some portions of it, madearrangements with Iraq to acquiresupport, including weapons of massdestruction (WMD). Incidentally, Iraq,by international treaty, was forbidden tohave weapons of mass destruction, thatis, chemical, biological, or nuclearweapons, which were all supposed tohave been destroyed after the Iraqis weredefeated in 1991. The U.S. governmentclaimed that contrary to thoseagreements, Iraq continued to produceweapons of mass destruction and couldbecome the main supplier of suchweapons to dissident movements, suchas al Qaeda, operating around the worldincluding in the United States.

Sanctions were levied on Iraq by theUN to push it toward compliance withits international agreements. Forexample, the revenue coming out of Iraqoil sales could be used only for food andmedical supplies and a limited numberof other items for Iraqi citizens. The useof that money gradually expanded. Inspite of numerous UN demands,Saddam's regime seemed to be inconstant violation of the limitations onWMD. The U.S. position came to a headin arguing Iraq was helping al Qaedaand that they were going to supplyweapons of mass destruction to terroristgroups. Therefore, they had to bestopped. The weapons inspectionsystem set up under the UN movedslowly and found no unequivocalevidence of such weapons.

The United States chose to build acoalition force to disarm and removeSaddam Hussein's government. Thedisagreement with the UN over strategymade the war a two-country enterprise.The United States and the U.K. led theoperation and received support fromsome two-score other countries,including Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Page 5: 273 Roots of Conflict

A reprint from Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. www.josephcoates.comCall 202-363-7440 or e-mail us at [email protected]

The Roots of Conflict Between the United States and Iraq • Ch. 7 of Defeating Terrorism Developing Dreams: Pg. 5 of 5Beyond 9/11 and the IRAQ WAR • Volume II: Trade Towers / War Clouds. [Chelsea Books. Series Editor: Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D.]

THE ROOTS

The conflicts between Iraq, the UN,and the United States have many banyantree-like roots. First is the old hostilitythat exists within Islam between theSunni and the Shiites-the formerbacking and dependent on the Husseinregime and the latter oppressed by theHussein regime. Second is theconsequence of the structure of Iraq andthe failure to establish a Kurdish state atthe end of WWI, giving Iraq a hostile,independence-seeking group. Third isthe rise of oil as an importantinternational resource, focusing theadvanced nations' attention on the needfor a guaranteed, stable supply of fuel.

Fourth, the totalitarianism of theHussein regime stifled any internalreform and drove the lucky few dissidentleaders out of the country. Fifth, Saddamtook advantage of the Israel-Palestinesituation to provide vocal support andarms to the Palestinians while raisingthe general cry of Pan Arabism againstIsrael. In the 1991 engagement betweenthe UN and Iraq, some missiles werefired into Israel. They had morepropaganda value than deadly effect butover the years added some Pan Arabicsupport to Iraq as an enemy of Israel andtherefore a friend of the movement.Sixth, the response of fundamentaliststhroughout Islam built hostility towardthe West and support (or at leastsympathy) for any nation seen asstanding up to the Western powers,hence the widespread resistance todisarming the nearly universallyrecognized villain, Saddam.

Seventh, the legacy of Westernimperialism in the Middle East raisesimmediate suspicion of any proclaimed

motives behind intervention. Eighth isthe cultural gap between the Islamicworld and the West. Westernleadership, especially in the UnitedStates, strongly plays down the reality ofdeep-seated cultural differences. Thetendency is to see the other parties asthinking, valuing, and acting by thesame customary rules we do. Thatassumption could not be further fromreality and is rich in troublesomesurprises. Ninth, the shock of 9/11politically required a vigorous U.S.response with a continuing effort totrack down al Qaeda and its supporters.

A BROADER VIEW

While the section above noted specificfactors leading to the flourishing of thebanyan tree of conflict, there remainsthe question, are there more universalfactors that move us into violentconflict? There are several. First,ideology blinds us to alternatives.Commitment to an ideology, be itreligious or secular, easily leads to "I amright and you are absolutely wrong."Ideology tends to make the world blackand white, yet the reality is that most ofour activities are in a gray zone.

Second, as Henry Kissingeremphasized during his time in the Nixonadministration, "the urgent tends todrive out the important," in politicaldiscussion. Elected officials in our owncountry live in a relatively short-termworld with two, four, or six yearsbetween elections. Appointed officialscan have even shorter tenure. In largebusinesses, focus tends to be on short-term improvement. The result is that wedon't pay attention to the larger, longer,slower-acting forces, in anticipating

how they could affect us.Third is the inability to honestly

acknowledge and appreciate culturaldifferences. Our elected leadership maybe unable or unwilling to anticipate howa culturally different group with whomwe are in conflict may see our actions orwhat actions they may take in responseto ours or how we might misunderstandeach other.

Fourth is a tendency to demonize theenemy, particularly when we don'tunderstand them. Demonization putsthem outside the boundaries ofhumanity and hence avoids anysignificant consideration of theirmotives, leaving us with only one goal:to neutralize, eliminate, or paralyzethem.

Fifth, throughout the Middle East,but also in Africa and Latin America, inthe last century there have been endlesscases of state-based terrorism. That is,government being the aggressor in usingillegal and immoral force, and imposingsocial, physical, economic, and too-oftencruel and viciously physical punishmentor restraints on people in order tomaintain the status quo.

The failure of internationalorganizations to make an attempt tostop state-based terrorism may slowlychange. Iraq is an example of wherestate-based terrorism has gone on fordecades. The United States, along withthe UN, had an opportunity to interveneand prevent government terrorism inIraq after the first Gulf War in 1991, butwe didn't. The world has yet to learn thatstate-based terrorism is by far thegreatest source of widespread violenceagainst innocent people.