29 july 2020 - afrimat.co.za agm presentati… · statement of financial position - assets r’000...
TRANSCRIPT
Annual General Meeting
29 July 2020
Core message
Diversification strategy proved its worth
Very strong balance sheet enables growth
Values based entrepreneurial culture is paying off
What makes Afrimat different?
Company positioning
Company culture
Strategic management
Company positioning
Primarily focused on mid-tier mining
Unique competitive advantage
Geographic location
Unique metallurgy
Structural cost advantage
Highly entrepreneurial culture
Hedged against economic volatility through wide diversification
Critical set of criteria used
when potential acquisitions
are being evaluated
Company culture
Strong operational efficiency –executing ability
The right people in the right positions
Synergistic teamwork
Customer focus
Values based entrepreneurial culture
Strategic management
Company-wide understanding of our desired ideal future
Fundamental understanding of our market
Good understanding of our own abilities
Continuous research of the business environment
Making the difficult decisions
Meticulous strategy execution
Financial discipline: making the returns
WHAT THE DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY IS DELIVERING
Headline earnings per share (HEPS) comparison
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-- Afrimat
-- Sephaku
-- Raubex *
-- PPC *
-- CIL
*
* Interim HEPS
Growth through diversification
Glen Douglas
Clinker
Infrasors
Cape Lime
Demaneng
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Headline earnings per share Reality without strategic acquisitions
Profit history with and without acquisitions
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Financial overview
Exceptional cash generation
Strong quality of earnings across group
Continued focus on astute capital allocation
Financial overview
Group revenue
increased to
R3,3bn
HEPS increased to
347,7 cps
Operating profit
margin
11,4% 48,5% 18,2%
Return on net
operating assets
Net debt:equity
ratio improvement
from 23,8%
30,9% 8,2%
Operating profit (R’000)
Financial overview
1 0
03 2
37
1 1
53 2
58
1 1
84 5
92
1 4
34 8
50
1 7
19 8
02
966 5
49
1 0
74 8
99
1 1
96 4
02
1 5
31 5
49
1 5
84 5
74
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1st half 2nd half
159 6
23
206 1
52
194 2
44
202 6
69
317 9
931
60 7
65
203 4
92
157 2
94
268 4
83
282 9
59
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1st half 2nd half
11,4%
Con
trib
ution f
rom
op
era
tions m
arg
in 1
8,2
% (
20
19
: 1
5,9
%)
Revenue (R’000)
Revenue and operating profit
27,5%
31%
16%
53% 2020
Contribution from operations
59%18%
23%
201952%
17%
31%
2020
Construction Materials
Industrial Minerals
Bulk Commodities
Revenue
40%
17%
43%
2019Operating
profit
Total dividend
CAGR of 19,7%
2016 - 2020
Cen
ts p
er
sh
are
57
70
62
81
117
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Record date:Friday, 4 Sept. 2020
Dividend payable:Monday, 7 Sept. 2020
Dividend – 2.7x cover
Margin improvements
Operating profit margin (%) FY2020 FY2019
Construction Materials 11,2% 10,9%
Bulk Commodities 31,0% 29,5%
Industrial Minerals 17,3% 14,3%
Overall 18,2% 15,9%
Headline earnings per share – full yearC
ents
per
share
15
6.6 19
6.4
18
0.7 23
4.1
34
7.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CAGR - 22,05%
(2016 – 2020)
Net cash from operation activities – full year
R‘000
CAGR of 20,56% (2016 – 2020)
32
6 5
36
20
0 9
60
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
79
51
0
320 339
406 046410 484
676 810
280 470
79
51
0
Statement of financial position - assets
R’000Audited
Feb 2020
Audited
Feb 2019
Property, plant and equipment 1 571 519 1 469 837
Intangible assets 210 226 221 873
Inventories 260 526 261 249
Trade and other receivables 476 356 435 458
Cash 167 533 191 763
Other assets / deferred tax 109 102 106 832
2 795 262 2 687 012
Statement of financial position – equities & liabilities
R’000Audited
Feb 2020
Audited
Feb 2019
Total equity 1 688 907 1 409 517
Borrowings 295 832 383 546
Provisions 152 748 141 080
Overdraft 20 134 153
Trade and other liabilities 421 072 390 517
Other liabilities / deferred tax 236 683 228 199
2 795 262 2 687 012
Debt:equity ratio improved to 8,2% (2019: 23,8%) at year-end
Debt:equity ratio improved further during F2021 Q1 – enabling dividend payment
Lessons learned
Value determined by the weakest link in value chain
Expect the unexpected (e.g. COVID-19)
Only the best people are good enough
Don’t trust the spreadsheet or the budget
Don’t sail too close to the wind
Cash is king – make it soon
DO NOT OVERPAY FOR ACQUISITIONS
OUR MARKET
Bulk commodities
Iron ore
Iron ore market overview
World production of usable ore: 2.5 billion tons
World seaborne trade about 1.467 billion tons p.a.
China’s imports about 72% of seaborne trade
South African production: about 70 million tons p.a.
Production of 1 ton of crude steel requires 1.4 ton of ironore and 0.8 ton of metallurgical coal
World steel production: 1.87 billion tons
China: 996.3 million tons
India: 111.2 million tons
Japan: 99.3 million tons
Impact of COVID-19
Hard lockdown in China January/February
Increased imports due to domestic travel ban Market tilted towards Construction and Infrastructure
Significant impact in Europe
Construction and automotive about 50% of steel consumption All major European car manufacturers halted in March 2020 –
withdrawing 61 000 vehicles per day
IMF warned that global economy could endure steepestdecline since the Great Depression
Global GDP could shrink by 3% in 2020
Iron ore price remains remarkably strong
Iron ore pricing
Seaborne pricing driven by Chinese production of pigiron
Grew in 2019 from $75/t to $125/t: Average $93/t
Currently trending higher: Average for July $107,7 tonagainst $83,84/t in April
Record levels in Rand terms
Fitch forecast average of $90/t in 2021
Realized price influenced by various quality premiums
Pricing influences
Daily iron ore price (as per the Plats
Index)
Lumpy premium
Logistics cost to harbour
Marketing costs (US$)
Exchange rate (R/$)
Quality adjustments based on silica, aluminium
and manganese content
Shipping costs
1. Preliminary payment when delivered to Saldanha
2. Final price determined after 3 months (arrival in China)
3. Difference on final price adjusted to subsequent
preliminary payment
Payment arrangements
Iron ore sales by rail
(*) Planned Transnet maintenance shut down
*Stable monthly sales expected to settle at 72,500
22
71
5
28
62
9
26
81
3
30
64
3
30
28
2
45
74
3
45
39
2
45
22
5
45
75
8
57
17
2 65
24
4
58
46
3
75
28
1
53
39
5
65
00
4
64
98
2
41
47
0
64
17
5
70
79
4
64
89
3
64
85
2
67
86
3
67
81
1
68
38
4
10
2 8
28
68
78
5
57
30
9
92
16
2
34
76
3
69
70
2
92
67
3
57
62
3
46
43
7
69
58
2
68
18
9
81
18
9
-10 000
10 000
30 000
50 000
70 000
90 000
110 000
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Sales (tons)
Construction materials
Aggregates
Bricks & blocks
Readymix concrete
Afrimat Construction Index – Q1 2020
Index; Q1 2011=100
4Q average
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q1'13 2 3 4
Q1'14 2 3 4
Q1'15 2 3 4
Q1'16 2 3 4
Q1'17 2 3 4
Q1'18 2 3 4
Q1'19 2 3 4
Q1'20
Contribution of construction to GDP (both at 2010 prices)
(Source: Stats SA, P0441, 5 March 2019 and 3 March 2020).
3.4%3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of Construction(both at 2010 prices)
(Source: Calculated from Stats Sa, P0441).
2.21%2.49%
1.85%
1.19%
0.40%
1.41%
0.79%
0.15%
2.58%
4.57%
3.49%
1.84%
1.18%
-0.58%
-1.23%
-3.26%-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP) Construction
Construction materials: COVID-19 impact
Complete lockdown under level 5 – no revenue for April2020 (painful)
Partial re-opening under level 4 – sales volumes around40% of previous year (still painful)
Gradual recovery under level 3 – activity levelsapproaching F2020 levels
Demand spike in some areas – contractors catching upafter lockdown and “Post-COVID-19” start-up delays
Good volumes expected for H2
Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Commission Council
Gazetted: 24 July 2020 – projects identified:
Water and sanitation (R106bn)
Energy (R58bn)
Roads (R47bn)
Human settlements (R138bn)
Strategic Integrated Projects
“…recovery should be led by infrastructure development and
maintenance” - Cyril Ramaphosa
Industrial minerals
Limestone
Dolomite
Industrial minerals: COVID-19 impact
Minimal activity under level 5 – only water purificationand fire retardant markets (painful)
Partial re-opening under level 4 – sales volumesremained disappointing
Gradual recovery under level 3 – activity levels remainbelow F2020 levels
Glass bottle market impacted by alcohol ban
Industrial minerals: Prospects
Specialised and niche applications are gaining traction(lime based paint, resin lime, fluid lime, fillers)
Increased demand for oxide and hydrated materials(e.g. fluid lime for heavy minerals industry)
Steel, chemical and plate glass markets expected toreturn gradually from August
Import replacement products gaining traction
Return to reasonable margins expected in H2
SUSTAINABILITY
Human resource developmentCategorization spend (R’000)
R35,4 million (2019: R27,4 million) spent on skills development, bursaries, learnerships and internships for the year
78,4% of this expenditure was in respect of historically disadvantaged employees
R 907
R 14 818
R 11 303
R 5 826
R 2 574
Bursary/study loansTraining costsSkills development department costLearnershipsInternship remuneration
FY 2020
R 774
R 13 191
R 6 117
R 4 318
R 2 995
Bursary/study loansTraining costsSkills development department costLearnershipsInternship remuneration
FY 2019
Community development Categorization spend (R’000)
R4 925 (R3 236) spend towards LED projects during the year
R616
R356
R2 243
R1 703
R7
FY 2020
Art, Sports & Culture (12,5%) Basic Needs (7,2%)
Education projects (45,5%) Uplifting community (34,6%)
Skills development (0,2%)
R172 R442
R1 205
R1 275
R142
FY 2019
Art, Sports & Culture (5,3%) Basic Needs (13,7%)
Education projects (37,2%) Uplifting community (39,4%)
Skills development (4,4%)
Afrimat culture
THE FUTURE
Unicorn Capital Partners
Conditional final offer made for remaining 73%
Short term focus to meet conditions in terms ofapprovals and agreements
Implementation expected by Q3 of F2021
Medium term focus to turn business around:
Nkomati ramp-up to reliably sell 40 000 tpm
Evaluate other business in terms of potential and strategic fit
Excited about Nkomati’s strategic fit
Prospects
Iron Ore expect to remain good contributor
Average iron ore price expected around $85/t for H2,good quality premiums expected
Construction Materials expect good volumes for H2
Industrial Minerals expect marginally lower volumes inH2 compared to H2 F2020
Strong cash
Implementation of UCP transaction
Expansion of iron ore resource base
Core message
Diversification strategy proved its worth
Very strong balance sheet enables growth
Values based entrepreneurial culture is paying off
Q & A
Thank you for your attendance and participation
For any further Investor Relations questions please contact:
Andries van Heerden (CEO) 021 917 8840
Vanessa Rech (Keyter Rech Investor Solutions) 087 351 3814