2a. capital markets day strategy final - sbm …...2014/09/02 · ir - 19/09/2014 • oil demand to...
TRANSCRIPT
© SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com
Strategy
Øivind TangenGroup Strategy Director
September 19, 2014
IR - 19/09/2014
Disclaimer
Some of the statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts arestatements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements based onmanagement’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risksand uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differmaterially from those in such statements. Such forward-looking statements are subjectto various risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results and performance ofthe Company’s business to differ materially and adversely from the forward-lookingstatements.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlyingassumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described inthis presentation as anticipated, believed, or expected. SBM Offshore NV does notintend, and does not assume any obligation, to update any industry information orforward-looking statements set forth in this presentation to reflect subsequent events orcircumstances.
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� Attractive market & opportunities
� Enlarging our footprint
� Changing industry conditions
� Our response
Agenda
Ready to Grow
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• Oil demand to grow due tomotorizing of China and India
• Shale oil supply growth is a surge,not an evergreen
• Growth of unconventionals(1)
will just match growth in demand,but not compensate for decliningproductionof existing fields
• Supply gap to be filled by conventional oil fields yet-to-be-developed / discovered
• Middle East, Venezuela and (ultra)deepwater will be the single largest contributors
• Supply/demand balance will tighten again once shale growth slows down in 3-4 years time
Oil Market
Tighter supply/demand balance foreseen by the end of this decade
World Supply/ Demand Outlook (MMb/d)
(1) Unconventionals includes NGLs, Light Tight Oil, Canadian oil sands, biofuels, and refinery processing gains.Source: IEA, Shell, JOSCO Energy Finance & Strategy Consultancy. 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Refinery
processing gains
Biofuels
Other
unconventionals
Light Tight Oil
(LTO)
Natural gas liquids
Enhanced oil
recovery
Yet-to-be found
Yet-to-be-
developed
Existing fields
Co
nve
nti
on
al
NG
Ls+
Un
co
nve
nti
on
al
Including (ultra)deepwater
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Global Oil Price Vision
• Oil prices expected to stay flat until end of the decade
• Risk skewed to the upside over time when U.S. shale oil reaches production plateau and no new surge of oil is imminent
• Post-2020 increase of oil price expected due to growing supply gap
• Today’s deepwater FIDs will see First Oil most likely at times of higher oil prices
Top 400 Breakeven of Non-Producing Oil Assets
Source: Bernstein Research ; Goldman Sachs ; JOSCO Energy Finance & Strategy Consultancy
Supply-constrained
World
Supply-constrained
World
0
1
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Lo
ng
-te
rm O
il P
ric
e T
ren
d
($/b
bl)
Demand-led World$15-20/bl Brent
Event-driven World$90-120/bl Brent
Oil Substitution World
Oil price supports (Ultra) Deepwater developments
Oil Price Expectation
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Bre
ak
even
Pri
ce
($
/bb
l)
Cumulative Peak Production (1,000 bbls/d)
Shale oil has led to a considerableflattening of the cost curve at
around $ 80-85/bbl
Deepwater
Traditional
Heavy Oil
“Shale Oil”
Ultradeepwater
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Onshore Shelf Deepwater
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Onshore Shelf Deepwater
Vo
lum
e D
isc
ove
red
(b
nb
oe
)
Commercial Technical Contingent
Trends in Exploration
In any scenario, (ultra)deepwater will grow in importance
• Explorers drilled 16,000 wells since 2003, of which 2,350 in deepwater (>400m)
• Deepwater discoveries stable over the years (~50/yr), whereas Onshore and Shelf are in decline since 2008
• Dramatic increase of deepwater contribution in volume discovered
• Deepwater discoveries have highest ratio of commercial volumes
Source: Wood Mackenzie; Deepwater is > 400m water depth
Global Discoveries (Number) Volumes Discovered (MMboe) Volumes by Commerciality
6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Onshore Shelf Deepwater
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Many Countries with (Ultra)Deepwater Basins
• 48 countries with 58 (ultra)deepwater oil & gas basins
– 20 countries with deepwater oil basins, 14 with ultra-deepwater oil basins
– 16 countries with deepwater gas basins, 6 with ultra-deepwater gas basins
• Potential offshore field developments
– 1,500-5,000 feet of water depth: 371
– 5,000+ feet of water depth: 202
• Total (ultra)deepwater Yet-to-Find is estimated at 175 billion boe
– 11 recent deepwater discoveries
New discoveries to drive future deepwater developments
Our Playing Field
Brazil: Santos
Nigeria: Niger
Delta
Ghana: Cote
d'Ivoire
Angola: KwanzaBrazil: Campos
Angola: Lower
CongoUS (GoM
Deepwater): East
Gulf CoastCote d`Ivoire: Cote
d'Ivoire
Mozambique:
RovumaFrench Guiana:
Guyana
US (GoM
Deepwater): West
Gulf Coast
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20
Valu
e C
reati
on @
Base p
rice (
US
$B
n)
Commercial Yet-to-Find Volumes (bnboe)
(Ultra)Deepwater Yet-to-Find vs Value
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Clarkson Research Services. 7
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Global E&P CapEx Spending Outlook
The Industry’s CapEx Outlook
Deep Water
• No CapEx contraction in any region, despite a slight pullback on the part of the Majors
• The new era of oil forces oil companies to become more cost efficient and effective
• This will lead to some CapEx and OpEx cost-cutting, but mainly cost-control by:
– Portfolio optimization / rationalization, divesting non-core / non-performing assets
– Reengineering pre-FID developments throughout their portfolio
On an unrisked basis, Deepwater CapExwill grow to a 25% in total Top-400 CapEx
Source: Barclays Capital, Clarkson Capital Markets; Goldman Sachs.
Top 400 CapEx – Shale vs. Deepwater
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$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
US
$B
n
Other Top 400 Deepwater US Shales
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015Ca
pit
al
Sp
en
din
g (
US
$ B
n)
United States Canada Outside North America
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(Ultra)Deepwater CapEx
• No visibility of any slowdown in deepwater CapEx
• Golden Triangle continues to dominate the Deepwater business for the foreseeable future
• Even taking historic delays into account or the marginal projects out, then still Deepwater CapExcontinues its long-term growth trend
Source: Goldman Sachs.
Long-term growth trend intact
Top 400 Deepwater CapEx Growth – Risked
Top 400 (Ultra)Deepwater (750m+) CapEx Growth – Unrisked
9
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
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20
13
20
14
E
20
15
E
20
16
E
20
17
E
20
18
E
US
$B
n
North America
Middle East
Latin America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Asia
Africa
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
20
00
20
01
20
02
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03
20
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20
05
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E
20
15
E
20
16
E
20
17
E
20
18
E
US
$B
n
Deepwater (>US$85 breakeven not sancioned)
Deepwater (2014-18 sanctions risked)
Deepwater capex unrisked
Slowdown due to Macondo
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2000-2012 2013 & Beyond
What’s Changed?
Rapid growth in the Deepwater frontier
Technology & local capabilities stretched to the limit; poorly developed supply chain
Tight offshore marine contracting market
Playing catch-up
Overly optimistic on time, effort and budget
Lack of project
maturation & development
Experience from past (complex) projects
Improved upfront project scoping / more front-end engineering; avoid re-scoping
Better supply-chain capacity & management
Downward trend in cost and timing
overruns
Improved profitability for client & contractor
Slow Down to Speed Up!
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SBM Strategic Actions
Client Issues & Trends SBM Response
Increased technical complexity
Cost pressure
Search for new (ultra) deepwaterresources
Industry capacity & capabilities
Technology development & leverage
Cost reduction initiatives
Entering new areas & breaking new grounds
Preferred partner & closer relationships
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Enlarging the Envelope
TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS FINANCE & LEASEPROJECT EXECUTION
Current: Focus on top-end segment • FPSOs
• Turret Moorings
• Turnkey Sale or Lease & Operate
Way forward: Enlarging the envelope• Floating LNG (FLNG)
• Semisubmersible & TLP production units
SBM Vision: To be the trusted partner of choice in the development of complete Floating Production Systems
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SBM’s Value Added Proposition
Top Contractor to Our Clients
• We provide highly customized strategic solutions toour clients
• We enable our clients to differentiate themselves in the marketplace
• We strive to offer the greatest return on investmentthrough pursuit of collaborative opportunities
• We represent significant spend and are crucial to our client’s business operations
• We operate with our clients across multiple geographies, categories, business units
• There are few alternatives in the marketplace to the products and services we provide
• We invest substantial time and effort in building & strengthening relationships with our clients to identify and create new opportunities as well as coordinate new technology development
Spend
TopCritical
Leverage
Bottleneck
Routine
Base
Ris
k / V
alu
e
Core
Product Leadership – Customer Intimacy – Operational Excellence
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Full Value Chain Involvement
• Earlier involvement provides the greatest opportunity for SBM to add value
• Latest knowhow and experience from recent and current projects
– Technology
– Costs & scheduling
– Project management
Project Initiation
Select ExecuteIdentify &
AssessDefine Operate
Feasibility Study
Concept Selection
Field Development
Plan
Basis for Design
Project Spec & Execution Plan
Design, Construct
Install, Commission,
Test
Produce, Maintain
Reservoir –FPSO
Optimization
FEED FID
Low cost options Increase predictability Flawless execution Safe operations
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Partnerships in technology
SBM brings value in all phases of the project
IR - 19/09/2014
� Attractive market & opportunities
� Enlarging our footprint
� Changing industry conditions
� Our response
Conclusions
Ready to Grow
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© SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com © SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com
Q&A