2a. capital markets day strategy final - sbm …...2014/09/02  · ir - 19/09/2014 • oil demand to...

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© SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com Strategy Øivind Tangen Group Strategy Director September 19, 2014

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Page 1: 2a. Capital Markets Day Strategy FINAL - SBM …...2014/09/02  · IR - 19/09/2014 • Oil demand to grow due to motorizing of China and India • Shale oil supply growth is a surge,

© SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com

Strategy

Øivind TangenGroup Strategy Director

September 19, 2014

Page 2: 2a. Capital Markets Day Strategy FINAL - SBM …...2014/09/02  · IR - 19/09/2014 • Oil demand to grow due to motorizing of China and India • Shale oil supply growth is a surge,

IR - 19/09/2014

Disclaimer

Some of the statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts arestatements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements based onmanagement’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risksand uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differmaterially from those in such statements. Such forward-looking statements are subjectto various risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results and performance ofthe Company’s business to differ materially and adversely from the forward-lookingstatements.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlyingassumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described inthis presentation as anticipated, believed, or expected. SBM Offshore NV does notintend, and does not assume any obligation, to update any industry information orforward-looking statements set forth in this presentation to reflect subsequent events orcircumstances.

2

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IR - 19/09/2014

� Attractive market & opportunities

� Enlarging our footprint

� Changing industry conditions

� Our response

Agenda

Ready to Grow

3

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IR - 19/09/2014

• Oil demand to grow due tomotorizing of China and India

• Shale oil supply growth is a surge,not an evergreen

• Growth of unconventionals(1)

will just match growth in demand,but not compensate for decliningproductionof existing fields

• Supply gap to be filled by conventional oil fields yet-to-be-developed / discovered

• Middle East, Venezuela and (ultra)deepwater will be the single largest contributors

• Supply/demand balance will tighten again once shale growth slows down in 3-4 years time

Oil Market

Tighter supply/demand balance foreseen by the end of this decade

World Supply/ Demand Outlook (MMb/d)

(1) Unconventionals includes NGLs, Light Tight Oil, Canadian oil sands, biofuels, and refinery processing gains.Source: IEA, Shell, JOSCO Energy Finance & Strategy Consultancy. 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Refinery

processing gains

Biofuels

Other

unconventionals

Light Tight Oil

(LTO)

Natural gas liquids

Enhanced oil

recovery

Yet-to-be found

Yet-to-be-

developed

Existing fields

Co

nve

nti

on

al

NG

Ls+

Un

co

nve

nti

on

al

Including (ultra)deepwater

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IR - 19/09/2014

Global Oil Price Vision

• Oil prices expected to stay flat until end of the decade

• Risk skewed to the upside over time when U.S. shale oil reaches production plateau and no new surge of oil is imminent

• Post-2020 increase of oil price expected due to growing supply gap

• Today’s deepwater FIDs will see First Oil most likely at times of higher oil prices

Top 400 Breakeven of Non-Producing Oil Assets

Source: Bernstein Research ; Goldman Sachs ; JOSCO Energy Finance & Strategy Consultancy

Supply-constrained

World

Supply-constrained

World

0

1

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Lo

ng

-te

rm O

il P

ric

e T

ren

d

($/b

bl)

Demand-led World$15-20/bl Brent

Event-driven World$90-120/bl Brent

Oil Substitution World

Oil price supports (Ultra) Deepwater developments

Oil Price Expectation

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Bre

ak

even

Pri

ce

($

/bb

l)

Cumulative Peak Production (1,000 bbls/d)

Shale oil has led to a considerableflattening of the cost curve at

around $ 80-85/bbl

Deepwater

Traditional

Heavy Oil

“Shale Oil”

Ultradeepwater

5

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IR - 19/09/2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Onshore Shelf Deepwater

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Onshore Shelf Deepwater

Vo

lum

e D

isc

ove

red

(b

nb

oe

)

Commercial Technical Contingent

Trends in Exploration

In any scenario, (ultra)deepwater will grow in importance

• Explorers drilled 16,000 wells since 2003, of which 2,350 in deepwater (>400m)

• Deepwater discoveries stable over the years (~50/yr), whereas Onshore and Shelf are in decline since 2008

• Dramatic increase of deepwater contribution in volume discovered

• Deepwater discoveries have highest ratio of commercial volumes

Source: Wood Mackenzie; Deepwater is > 400m water depth

Global Discoveries (Number) Volumes Discovered (MMboe) Volumes by Commerciality

6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Onshore Shelf Deepwater

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IR - 19/09/2014

Many Countries with (Ultra)Deepwater Basins

• 48 countries with 58 (ultra)deepwater oil & gas basins

– 20 countries with deepwater oil basins, 14 with ultra-deepwater oil basins

– 16 countries with deepwater gas basins, 6 with ultra-deepwater gas basins

• Potential offshore field developments

– 1,500-5,000 feet of water depth: 371

– 5,000+ feet of water depth: 202

• Total (ultra)deepwater Yet-to-Find is estimated at 175 billion boe

– 11 recent deepwater discoveries

New discoveries to drive future deepwater developments

Our Playing Field

Brazil: Santos

Nigeria: Niger

Delta

Ghana: Cote

d'Ivoire

Angola: KwanzaBrazil: Campos

Angola: Lower

CongoUS (GoM

Deepwater): East

Gulf CoastCote d`Ivoire: Cote

d'Ivoire

Mozambique:

RovumaFrench Guiana:

Guyana

US (GoM

Deepwater): West

Gulf Coast

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20

Valu

e C

reati

on @

Base p

rice (

US

$B

n)

Commercial Yet-to-Find Volumes (bnboe)

(Ultra)Deepwater Yet-to-Find vs Value

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Clarkson Research Services. 7

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IR - 19/09/2014

Global E&P CapEx Spending Outlook

The Industry’s CapEx Outlook

Deep Water

• No CapEx contraction in any region, despite a slight pullback on the part of the Majors

• The new era of oil forces oil companies to become more cost efficient and effective

• This will lead to some CapEx and OpEx cost-cutting, but mainly cost-control by:

– Portfolio optimization / rationalization, divesting non-core / non-performing assets

– Reengineering pre-FID developments throughout their portfolio

On an unrisked basis, Deepwater CapExwill grow to a 25% in total Top-400 CapEx

Source: Barclays Capital, Clarkson Capital Markets; Goldman Sachs.

Top 400 CapEx – Shale vs. Deepwater

8

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

US

$B

n

Other Top 400 Deepwater US Shales

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015Ca

pit

al

Sp

en

din

g (

US

$ B

n)

United States Canada Outside North America

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IR - 19/09/2014

(Ultra)Deepwater CapEx

• No visibility of any slowdown in deepwater CapEx

• Golden Triangle continues to dominate the Deepwater business for the foreseeable future

• Even taking historic delays into account or the marginal projects out, then still Deepwater CapExcontinues its long-term growth trend

Source: Goldman Sachs.

Long-term growth trend intact

Top 400 Deepwater CapEx Growth – Risked

Top 400 (Ultra)Deepwater (750m+) CapEx Growth – Unrisked

9

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

E

20

15

E

20

16

E

20

17

E

20

18

E

US

$B

n

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Asia

Africa

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

E

20

15

E

20

16

E

20

17

E

20

18

E

US

$B

n

Deepwater (>US$85 breakeven not sancioned)

Deepwater (2014-18 sanctions risked)

Deepwater capex unrisked

Slowdown due to Macondo

Page 10: 2a. Capital Markets Day Strategy FINAL - SBM …...2014/09/02  · IR - 19/09/2014 • Oil demand to grow due to motorizing of China and India • Shale oil supply growth is a surge,

IR - 19/09/2014

2000-2012 2013 & Beyond

What’s Changed?

Rapid growth in the Deepwater frontier

Technology & local capabilities stretched to the limit; poorly developed supply chain

Tight offshore marine contracting market

Playing catch-up

Overly optimistic on time, effort and budget

Lack of project

maturation & development

Experience from past (complex) projects

Improved upfront project scoping / more front-end engineering; avoid re-scoping

Better supply-chain capacity & management

Downward trend in cost and timing

overruns

Improved profitability for client & contractor

Slow Down to Speed Up!

10

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IR - 19/09/2014

SBM Strategic Actions

Client Issues & Trends SBM Response

Increased technical complexity

Cost pressure

Search for new (ultra) deepwaterresources

Industry capacity & capabilities

Technology development & leverage

Cost reduction initiatives

Entering new areas & breaking new grounds

Preferred partner & closer relationships

11

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IR - 19/09/2014

Enlarging the Envelope

TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS FINANCE & LEASEPROJECT EXECUTION

Current: Focus on top-end segment • FPSOs

• Turret Moorings

• Turnkey Sale or Lease & Operate

Way forward: Enlarging the envelope• Floating LNG (FLNG)

• Semisubmersible & TLP production units

SBM Vision: To be the trusted partner of choice in the development of complete Floating Production Systems

12

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IR - 19/09/2014

SBM’s Value Added Proposition

Top Contractor to Our Clients

• We provide highly customized strategic solutions toour clients

• We enable our clients to differentiate themselves in the marketplace

• We strive to offer the greatest return on investmentthrough pursuit of collaborative opportunities

• We represent significant spend and are crucial to our client’s business operations

• We operate with our clients across multiple geographies, categories, business units

• There are few alternatives in the marketplace to the products and services we provide

• We invest substantial time and effort in building & strengthening relationships with our clients to identify and create new opportunities as well as coordinate new technology development

Spend

TopCritical

Leverage

Bottleneck

Routine

Base

Ris

k / V

alu

e

Core

Product Leadership – Customer Intimacy – Operational Excellence

13

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IR - 19/09/2014

Full Value Chain Involvement

• Earlier involvement provides the greatest opportunity for SBM to add value

• Latest knowhow and experience from recent and current projects

– Technology

– Costs & scheduling

– Project management

Project Initiation

Select ExecuteIdentify &

AssessDefine Operate

Feasibility Study

Concept Selection

Field Development

Plan

Basis for Design

Project Spec & Execution Plan

Design, Construct

Install, Commission,

Test

Produce, Maintain

Reservoir –FPSO

Optimization

FEED FID

Low cost options Increase predictability Flawless execution Safe operations

14

Partnerships in technology

SBM brings value in all phases of the project

Page 15: 2a. Capital Markets Day Strategy FINAL - SBM …...2014/09/02  · IR - 19/09/2014 • Oil demand to grow due to motorizing of China and India • Shale oil supply growth is a surge,

IR - 19/09/2014

� Attractive market & opportunities

� Enlarging our footprint

� Changing industry conditions

� Our response

Conclusions

Ready to Grow

15

Page 16: 2a. Capital Markets Day Strategy FINAL - SBM …...2014/09/02  · IR - 19/09/2014 • Oil demand to grow due to motorizing of China and India • Shale oil supply growth is a surge,

© SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com © SBM Offshore 2014. All rights reserved. www.sbmoffshore.com

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