2nd quarter 2014 manhattan market overview 2014-07-22 · overview snapshot leasing investment sales...

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2nd Quarter 2014

Manhattan Market Overview

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Overview Snapshot

Leasing

Investment Sales

Loan Sales

Valuation & Advisory

At the close of the second quarter, the Manhattan office market exhibited positive signs of continued growth. Leasing velocity remains healthy, with this year’s activity on pace to exceed the total volume of leases completed in 2013.

After an expected slow start in the first quarter, the second quarter of 2014 has performed exceedingly well, recording the highest total dollar volume and number of transactions for any second quarter since 2007 with $8.8 billion in volume and 115 transactions.

Despite the excess of cash and current demand for assets, the pricing of the recent June 11, 2014 HUD auction (Single Family Loan Sale 2014-2)surprised many at 77.63% of BPO as presented by the SFLS 2014-2 National Regional Sale Results Summary published by HUD. What was most surprising was the ample weight of loans in judicial states, particularly NY and NJ which have caused investors to struggle for resolution.

In real estate, there is an old cliché that “there is too much money chasing few properties.” At the end of the second-quarter, the pricing for Manhattan office assets is well beyond the price per square foot levels seen prior to the 2009 recession, even though rents have not fully recovered to pre-recessionary rates.

New JerseyOffice Market Monitor


2nd Quarter 2014

Leasing OverviewMarket Data Points

Indicator 2Q13 2Q14

Vacancy 11.90% 10.80%

Rent $65.10 $70.79

Absorption 34,882 sf 161,618 sf

Indicator 2Q13 2Q14

Vacancy 14.80% 12.00%

Rent $45.68 $49.38

Absorption (1,104,548) sf 1,087,350 sf

Indicator 2Q13 2Q14

Vacancy 9.30% 8.50%

Rent $54.00 $56.52

Absorption (796,591) sf (559,533) sf

Indicator 2Q13 2Q14

Vacancy 11.60% 8.80%

Rent $98.94 $127.88

Absorption 128,953 sf 241,954 sf

Midtown Overall

Downtown Overall

Midtown South Overall

AY Top 25*

*Top 25 Class A buildings in Midtown

Manhattan At the close of the second quarter, the Manhattan office market exhibited positive signs of continued growth. Leasing velocity remains healthy, with this year’s activ-ity on pace to exceed the total volume of leases completed in 2013. Overall, average asking rents were stable quarter over quarter, although in some of the more desirable submarkets, rents continued to climb.

New York City’s economy also continued to strengthen. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs in May, bringing today’s employment figures on par with those of January 2008, just before massivelayoffs plagued the country. In New York City, private sector employment rose by 77,700 jobs for the 12-month period ending in May, leaving the City’s unemployment rate at 7.9 percent (down 0.9 of a percentage point from last May).

MidtownIn Midtown, the Class A vacancy rate barely changed quarter over quarter, standing at 11.3 percent. The Grand Central and Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller submarkets represent the softest areas of Midtown, as several large blocks of space became available during the quarter. In Grand Central, 405 Lexington Avenue (145,813 square feet) and 633 Third Avenue (89,558 square feet) were two of the biggest blocks in the neighborhood that came onto the market, contributing to a rise in that submarket’s vacancy rate. In the Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Center neighborhood, 1155 Avenue of the Americas (93,205 square feet) was the largest block to come onto the market during the quarter.

Despite these conditions, Midtown leasing activity for the quarter was strong. Help-ing to offset the large availabilities that were added to the market during the quarter, Blackstone Group renewed and expanded to 489,945 square feet at 345 Park Avenue, and White & Case signed a 440,000-square-foot long-term lease and relocation for its new offices at 1221 Avenue of the Americas. Despite an increase in the vacancy rate along Grand Central and Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Center, overall absorption was still a positive 161,618 square feet.

With deals such as Coach, SAP America and, more recently, Time Warner Inc’s plan to take 1.1 million square feet at 30 Hudson Yards, the demand for new and efficient spaces to suit the millennial age group is beginning to impact the market. Hudson Yards offers not just new construction, but also an alternative to Midtown South, which is approaching triple digit rents. The allure of Hudson Yards may become a new destination for the technology and media/information sector, which has now surpassed financial services as New York City’s leading industry. Midtown SouthMidtown South is showing no signs of slowing down. Seen as the neighborhood of choice for creative companies and tech firms, the submarket’s Class A vacancy rate has hit a record low of 4.4 percent, down from 7.0 percent year over year. Chelsea/

Leasing

Meatpacking had two of the largest leases of the quarter in the neighborhood, including the largest deal by mobile app devel-oper Uber, which took 52,530 square feet at 636-638 West 28th Street. At 44 West 18th Street, furniture manufacturer Pucci International signed a 10-year renewal for 49,875 square feet.

Recently, Skip Hop, a company that makes diaper bags and apparel, decided to pay higher rents now to avoid potentially higher rates in a few years. The company renewed and expanded by an additional 19,000 square feet at 50 West 23rd Street well in advance of its 2016 lease expiration to head off the potential for future increases.

DowntownDowntown’s reputation as a value-play for tenants continued to bolster leasing activity in the submarket. A recent study by Downtown Alliance shows that there are now more than 600 tech companies that call Lower Manhattan home, representing a 24 percent increase from a year ago. During the second quarter, The Durst Organization and Port Authority decided to lower the asking rent by 10 percent from $75.00 per square foot to $69.00 per square foot at 1 World Trade Center, sparking debate that the market was weakening. Shortly thereafter, three leases were completed at the building. Ad agency KiDS Creative signed a 15-year lease for 35,000 square feet to take the entire 87th floor of 1 World Trade Center. Not only did this represent the first new lease at the tower in nearly three years, but it was also the high-est rent ever paid Downtown, at more than $90.00 per square foot. Legends Hospitality LLC (4,759 square feet) and BMB Group (2,191 square feet) also signed deals at the building.

225 Liberty Street signed two of Manhattan’s largest deals withTime Inc., leasing 691,000 square feet, joining media conglom-erate Conde Nast in a move from Midtown. Bank of New York also signed a deal for 350,000 square feet at the building. The building itself is refilling quicker than expected after investment bank Merrill Lynch let its massive lease expire in 2013. These two deals helped drop the vacancy rate by 130 basis points from last quarter to 12.0 percent. Manhattan Market RentsDuring the second quarter, average asking rents across Manhat-tan remained flat. However, submarkets with high momentum such as the Plaza District and Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller contin-ued to see rents rising. Rents for Midtown Class A product have increased every quarter since the second quarter of 2010, and currently stand at $79.66 per square foot. Plaza District average asking rents are currently the most expensive in Manhattan at $131.77 per square foot, followed by SoHo/NoHo, where the average Class A asking rent is now $119.03. This is attributed to 51 Astor Place, where rents are in the triple digits ($120.00 per square foot).

Midtown South Class A asking rents have surpassed those in Midtown, finishing the quarter at $80.99 per square foot, up nearly 13 percent from $71.69 per square foot at the end of the second quarter 2013. Downtown asking rents decreased slightly during the second quarter. Large leases with higher asking rents are seen as being behind the small decline. Currently, the Class A average asking rent for Downtown is $53.11. To date, there have been 26 deals with starting rents north of $100.00 per square foot compared to 32 at this time a year ago.

Red Hot Midtown South: With the prevailing sentiment in the market that rents will continue to rise, will tenants with expiring leases choose to leave or renew early to avoid exorbitant rate increases over the next few years?

Number of deals over $100.00 per square foot: Does a lower number of transactions over $100.00 compared to a year ago mean we have reached a peak in the market cycle?

Tenant Type Address Square Feet

Time, Inc. New Lease 225 Liberty Street 691,000

Blackstone Group Renewal/Expansion 345 Park Avenue 489,495

White & Case New Lease 1221 Avenue of the Americas 423,000

Neuberger Berman New Lease 1290 Avenue of the Americas 355,000

Jennison Associates Renewal/Expansion 237 Park Avenue 166,000

Address Square Feet Market

4 World Trade Center 1,034,969 World Trade Center

4 Times Square 817,252 Times Square/West Side

1 World Trade Center 741,737 World Trade Center

180 Maiden Lane 728,736 Financial District

225 Liberty Street 583,787 World Trade Center

Top 2Q 2014 Leases

Largest Block of Space Currently Available

Trends to Watch

E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young



2nd Quarter 2014

Investment Sales

Investment Sales OverviewMarket Data Points

After an expected slow start in the first quarter, the second quarter of 2014 has per-formed exceedingly well, recording the highest total dollar volume and number of transactions for any second quarter since 2007 with $8.8 billion in volume and 115 transactions. The definitive strength is further reinforced with 26 pending transac-tions totaling $5.6 billion in value. At a projected 140+ transactions totaling over $14.4 billion, the second quarter is on pace to outperform the first two quarters of 2013 combined. In addition, there is a possibility Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village will trade in 2014 which would add approximately $5 billion of transactional volume helping cement 2014 as an exceptional year for Manhattan real estate sales. As we have typically seen during recent real estate bull markets, office activity took the lead in sales by asset class with over 58 percent of the total sales volume in the second quarter, at over $5.1 billion. Driving this activity were three primary trans-actions – The acquisition of 5 Times Square by David Werner for $1.5 billion (the largest office sale since Google’s $1.6 billion purchase of 90% interest in 111 Eighth Ave in December 2010), SL Green’s acquisition of a 49.4 percent interest in 388-390 Greenwich Street for approximately $778 million, and Oxford Properties Group $575 million acquisition for 450 Park Avenue.

While the office market for assets priced over $150 million flourished in the second quarter, the mid-market ($10 million to $150 million) volume was not as robust and garnered approximately 60% of what was achieved in the first quarter. That being said, the decline in office sales in the mid-market was offset by an uptick in residen-tial volume in the second quarter with a nearly 75% increase from the first quarter. From a submarket outlook and across all asset classes, Midtown West remains the leader in sales volume over the past 5 years, a trend that began in 2009. With over 39 percent of sales activity for the quarter and anchored by the 5 Times Square pur-chase, Midtown West led sales activity over the second highest submarket by 13%. Downtown represented approximately 26 percent of total dollar volume bolstered by the $778 million partial interest sale of 388-390 Greenwich Street, while at just over a 12 percent share, the Midtown East submarket was the only other submarket to account for more than 10 percent of volume in the quarter.

According to Real Capital Analytics, New York City is showing a continued trend of institutions exiting office holdings while the private capital presence continues to grow– accounting for 39 percent of the office capital flow in 2014 thus far. Institu-tions are dominating the industrial asset class representing 76 percent of the capital flow while simultaneously increasing interest in the multifamily sector to 31 percent of capital flow; up from 23 percent in 2013. The public/listed REITs have also grown their market share from a 29 percent stake in 2013 to a 62 percent share of multi-family capital flow in YTD 2014 driven by leaders Equity Residential and AvalonBay.

New York City Office Captial Flow

Quarter by Quarter Manhattan Sales

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Tran

sact

ion

$

Num

ber of Transactions

22%

1% 6% 9% 4%

11%

13%

30% 30% 39%

8%

19%

5% 5%

15%26% 35%32% 30%

25%

33% 32% 27% 25%17%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Transaction

$

New York City Office Capital Flow

Cross Border

Institutional

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

$5,251.48

$1,457.78$204.95

$2,117.28

$3,628.91

$391$1,126

2014 Manhattan Sales by Submarket(in millions)

Midtown West ‐ 37%

Midtown East ‐ 10.3%

Upper West Side ‐ 1.4%

Midtown South ‐ 14.9%

Downtown ‐ 25.6%

Upper Manhattan ‐ 2.8%

Upper East Side ‐ 7.9%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000

1Q20

09

2Q20

09

3Q20

09

4Q20

09

1Q20

10

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10

3Q20

10

4Q20

10

1Q20

11

2Q20

11

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11

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11

1Q20

12

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12

3Q20

12

4Q20

12

1Q20

13

2Q20

13

3Q20

13

4Q20

13

1Q20

14

2Q20

14

Number

of

Transactions

Transaction

$

Millions


$ Amount # Transactions

22%

1% 6% 9% 4%

11%

13%

30% 30% 39%

8%

19%

5% 5%

15%26% 35%32% 30%

25%

33% 32% 27% 25%17%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Transaction

$


Cross Border

Institutional

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

$5,251.48

$1,457.78$204.95

$2,117.28

$3,628.91

$391$1,126






Downtown ‐ 25.6%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000

1Q20

09

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09

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09

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09

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10

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10

3Q20

10

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12

1Q20

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2Q20

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3Q20

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4Q20

13

1Q20

14

2Q20

14

Number

of

Transactions

Transaction

$

Millions



22%

1% 6% 9% 4%

11%

13%

30% 30% 39%

8%

19%

5% 5%

15%26% 35%32% 30%

25%

33% 32% 27% 25%17%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Transaction

$


Cross Border

Institutional

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

$5,251.48

$1,457.78$204.95

$2,117.28

$3,628.91

$391$1,126






Downtown ‐ 25.6%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000

1Q20

09

2Q20

09

3Q20

09

4Q20

09

1Q20

10

2Q20

10

3Q20

10

4Q20

10

1Q20

11

2Q20

11

3Q20

11

4Q20

11

1Q20

12

2Q20

12

3Q20

12

4Q20

12

1Q20

13

2Q20

13

3Q20

13

4Q20

13

1Q20

14

2Q20

14

Number

of

Transactions

Transaction

$

Millions



22%

1% 6% 9% 4%

11%

13%

30% 30% 39%

8%

19%

5% 5%

15%26% 35%32% 30%

25%

33% 32% 27% 25%17%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Transaction

$


Cross Border

Institutional

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

$5,251.48

$1,457.78$204.95

$2,117.28

$3,628.91

$391$1,126






Downtown ‐ 25.6%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000

1Q20

09

2Q20

09

3Q20

09

4Q20

09

1Q20

10

2Q20

10

3Q20

10

4Q20

10

1Q20

11

2Q20

11

3Q20

11

4Q20

11

1Q20

12

2Q20

12

3Q20

12

4Q20

12

1Q20

13

2Q20

13

3Q20

13

4Q20

13

1Q20

14

2Q20

14

Number

of

Transactions

Transaction

$

Millions



22%

1% 6% 10%

11%

13%

30% 29%

8%

19%

5% 4%

26% 35%

32% 29%

33% 32% 27% 28%

2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013

Buyer Participation %


Cross Border

Ins9tu9onal

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

Number of Sales

Transaction $

Millions

Quarter by Quarter Manha;an Sales

Series1 Series2

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

2001 Sales

2002 Sales

2003 Sales

2004 Sales

2005 Sales

2006 Sales

2007 Sales

2008 Sales

2009 Sales

2010 Sales

2011 Sales

2012 Sales

2013 Sales YTD

Number of Sales

Transaction $

Millions

Year over Year Manha;an Sales

22%

1% 6% 10%

11%

13%

30% 29%

8%

19%

5% 4%

26% 35%

32% 29%

33% 32% 27% 28%

2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013

Buyer Participation %


Cross Border

Ins9tu9onal

Public/Listed REITs

Private

User/Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

Number of Sales

Transaction $

Millions

Quarter by Quarter Manha;an Sales

Series1 Series2

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

2001 Sales

2002 Sales

2003 Sales

2004 Sales

2005 Sales

2006 Sales

2007 Sales

2008 Sales

2009 Sales

2010 Sales

2011 Sales

2012 Sales

2013 Sales YTD

Number of Sales

Transaction $

Millions

Year over Year Manha;an Sales

Tran

sact

ion

$


Following recent affirmations by the Fed to maintain low interest rates, we expect the real estate market to remain strong through the end of the year

The 2015 outlook will hinge on the Fed’s likelihood of raising interest rates which will play a major part in investor activities in the coming year.

Trends to Watch

E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young

Address Price SF Price/SF Buyer Seller Type

5 Times Square $1.5 billion 1,101,779 $1,361 David Werner AVR Realty Office

110 William Street $261.1 million 857,776 $304 Savanna JV KBS Strategic Opportunity REIT

Swig Burris Equities JV Silverpeak RE Partners

Office

61 Broadway $330.0 million 786,975 $419 RXR RealtyBroad Street Development Office

160 Water Street $165.0 million 481,858 $342 Emmes & Co.Oestreicher Properties Office

673 First Avenue $145.0 million 426,596 $340 NYU Langone SL Green Office

Top 2Q 2014 Sales

On a semi-annual basis, there remains a general upwards trend in the sale of Manhattan commercial properties. The increase in pricing, in some cases, is perhaps more an indication of tightened supply of investment grade properties for investor appetites than economic fundamentals. While there are worth-while opportunities in the market, the key at this point in the cycle is for investors to possess some restraint and to act in a

disciplined manner in an environment where many owners are seeking to “cash-out” based on momentum pricing.

Following recent affirmations by the Fed to maintain low inter-est rates, we expect the real estate market to remain strong through the end of the year. The 2015 outlook will hinge on the Fed’s likelihood of raising interest rates which will play a



2nd Quarter 2014

Loan Sales

Loan Sales OverviewMarket Data Points

Despite the excess of cash and current demand for assets, the pricing of the recent June 11, 2014 HUD auction (Single Family Loan Sale 2014-2) surprised many at 77.63% of BPO as presented by the SFLS 2014-2 National Regional Sale Results Sum-mary published by HUD. What was most surprising was the ample weight of loans in judicial states, particularly NY and NJ which have caused investors to struggle for resolution. Florida, as a judicial state, seems to have cleaned up their back log and process and is in demand.

Based on this pricing, it is clear that investors are willing to accept single digit unlevered yields for buying distressed residential loans and any investor with more expensive cost of capital is probably priced out of the market.

Simultaneously, investors owning portfolios will surely question whether it makes sense at these levels to sell these assets rather than seek a traditional resolution, although market pricing is clearly tiered for a HUD or Bank asset sale versus where an investor can sell in the secondary market.

By contrast, we have seen an increase in activity in the secondary market for well-originated higher coupon, lower LTV private mortgages including Bridge, Hard Money and other Non-QM products. Yields on these assets can be as high as 12% and the standard LTV is usually in the 65-75% range. This is a marked contrast to the non-performing market where investors are exposed to a higher LTV with no imme-diate cash flow.

The difficulty for investors in this product is achieving volume, as the origination is fragmented and many of the loans are shorter term. Therefore many of the trades tend to be smaller and it is difficult to accumulate real size.

Based on current pricing, investors are willing to accept single digit unlevered yields for buying distressed residential loans and any investor with more expensive cost of capital is probably priced out of the market.

We are already seeing and expect to see more investors entering the secondary private mortgage market by continuing to set up flow agreements with originators in search of yield for their portfolios.

Trends to Watch

Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FMCC)



2nd Quarter 2014

Valuation & advisory

Valuation & Advisory OverviewMarket Data Points

With tourism approaching an all-time high of more than 55 million visitors this year and the continuance of international money pouring into the city, Manhattan has truly lived up to its name as the “Financial Capital of the World.” Given the current global situations both economically and militarily, Manhattan is considered to be a “safe haven” by many international investors. In real estate, there is an old cliché that “there is too much money chasing few properties.”

At the end of the second-quarter, the pricing for Manhattan office assets is well beyond the price per square foot levels seen prior to the 2009 recession, even though rents have not fully recovered to pre-recessionary rates. As of Q2-2014, the average asking rent for office space in Manhattan was $63.27 PSF, about 8.5% below the peak reached in Q3-2008 of $69.08 PSF. We are seeing sale prices that exceed $1,000 per square foot for a Class A office building in Manhattan north of Canal Street. During the past twelve months, the market witnessed nine office transactions above $1,000 PSF in comparison to five transactions in Q2-2007/2008, the highest being the sale of the GM Building at $1,540 PSF. In fact, 650 Madison Avenue closed in September 2013 at more $2,150 per square foot and a 3.2% initial yield. Other notable recent sales include 450 Park Avenue at $1,700 PSF (3.6% cap rate) and 530-536 Broadway at $2,080 PSF (4.4% cap rate) in SoHo, and Time Warner sold its condominium interest for $1,215 PSF (5.5% cap rate), which was a sale-leaseback on an interim basis. For the Downtown market, prominent office buildings have recently been selling in the $400 to $500 PSF range with cap rates between 4% and 5%, depending on NOI and upside potential.

Interestingly, Five Times Square and Seven Times Square recently sold at $1,361 PSF and $1,245 PSF, respectively, for the leasehold positions. If these transactions had included the underlying land, they would have likely sold for more than $1,800 PSF.

Can “going-in” capitalization rates continue to compress for office product? Historically low rates give us pause.

Terminal cap rates used in Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) analysis traditionally reflect a 100 bp spread over “going-in” rates. This reflects the perception of increased risk over time. We have seen compression in these rates which creates concern about overheating in the market. We wonder if even a 100 basis points spread is enough to compensate for the inevitable impact on pricing from increasing mortgage rates and inflation over the long-term.

Investors are modeling end of holding period resale values that comprise 60% or more of the composite current price levels for many transactions. The question that must be asked is; Will market rent growth alleviate the investor inequities (50/50) and risk?

Trends to Watch

“Manhattan is considered to be a “safe haven” by many international investors“

“We are seeing sale prices that exceed $1,000 per square foot for a Class A office building in Manhattan north of Canal Street. “

“For the Downtown market, prominent office buildings have recently been selling in the $400 to $500 PSF range with cap rates between 4% and 5%“

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2nd quarter 2014 manhattan market overview 2014-07-22 · overview snapshot leasing investment sales...

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