bondreportbond.realtymx.com/style/images/marketreports/qtr 3 2016.pdf · 2017-08-03 ·...

B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M

BONDREPORTQTR 3 2016

1776 Broadway 853 Broadway 1500 Second Avenue 64 West 21st StreetNew York, NY 10019 New York, NY 10003 New York, NY 10075 New York, NY 10010

212.582.2009 212.672.6350 212.584.4220 212.645.8800

WELCOME TO THE 14TH EDITION OF THE BOND REPORT

The New York City real estate market has officially cycled out of the inventory shortage which we have been experiencing since record lows in 2013. With 4,978 active listings on the market at the end of the quarter, and 5,432 active listings at the peak in July, we are finally approaching “normal” levels. Unlike conversations in previous quarters, the inventory we are talking about is not on Billionaire’s Row, although numerous cranes still dot the Manhattan skyline as mega development projects churn on. We can finally speak with conviction about a return of real inventory for real people. The slow climb back since the spring of 2013 has kept supply well below what was needed to meet demand. While still not the record high levels of 2009, the supply numbers are much stronger than the record low levels of 2013, and a good indication of strong inventory in the resale market (homes that are not new development or converted buildings) supports a continuing stable market.

We have gone from a severe drought to a steady stream, but not yet a flood. This is an important distinction. There is supply in the middle market, but not oversupply like what the luxury market is experiencing. Buyers now have more options where they didn’t have any. Homes are spending more time on the market, but if well priced, they are still selling at robust levels. Sellers can expect solid transactions with real buyers who are serious about finding a property to call home. The increase in supply may require managing expectations of sellers who are still hung up on aspirational pricing folklore of quarters past, as we all become more accustomed to a more normally paced market.

Interest rates are still historically low, and the Federal Reserve has decided to wait to increase interest rates until later this year. The economy has continued to strengthen as employment reports remain optimistic. Now is a great time to buy or sell your home. As leaders in the industry, BOND is here to educate you on and guide you through the entire home finding and selling process to ensure the best possible outcome. A BOND agent is ready to address your specific needs and answer your specific questions.

We look forward to assisting you. Noah Freedman, Partner,

BOND New York Real Estate


© 2016 BOND New York New York All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawals without notice. All property information, including but not limited to, square footage and number of bedrooms, is approximate. Exact measurements should be verified by your own attorney, architect, engineer, or zoning expert. BOND New York is a broker that supports Equal Housing Opportunity.

All source material for the BOND Report is provided by Urban Digs, Online Residential (OLR), and BOND New York’s proprietary listings database. This material is believed to be accurate, however is subject to errors and omissions.


BONDREPORT QTR 3 2016

Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages Are Rounded.

LOOKING FORWARDWhile the BOND Report presents a traditional historical snapshot of the market, we first present two charts indicating pending sales (listings in contract) versus active listings (available listings), for both year-over-year and within Quarter 3, 2016. This data compares sales volume amidst real-time inventory trends and offers the best indication of where the market is going.

A peak in pending sales for Quarter 3, 2016 happened in mid-July at 3,971 contracts signed and then expectedly began to taper off. Supply on the other hand showed a 44% increase since the beginning of the year and was up 17.7% since the previous month and 13.3% year-over-year. Quarter 3, 2016 supply started at 5,023 units and hit its lowest levels for the quarter in the very beginning of September, dipping to 4,077 units, and then continued to increase throughout September, finishing off at 4,960 for the quarter.

Quarter 3, 2016 supply showed an increase during the summer months and was 10% higher in August than in 2015 and 16% higher in June, months when there is typically a fall off in inventory. We expect the stability to continue on this path with prices reflecting more supply. A continued decrease in pending sales can be expected as we go into the winter months. A continued increase in supply in the resale market offers buyers more choices, which contributes to an overall slower market pace.

In almost every neighborhood, the number of pending sales showed a decrease from the start of the quarter with the exception of East Harlem (up 19.2%) and Hamilton Heights (up 53.8%). Nolita showed the largest decrease at 66.7%, while the Lower East Side and the Financial District/Civic Center showed almost no change at -1.9% and -1.7%, respectively.

Active Listings: -1.6%Pending Sales: -20.1%

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Market Trends September 2015 - September 2016Pending Sales -6.2% and Active Listings +13.3%

Active Listings: +13.3%Pending Sales: -6.2%

Market Trends Within Qtr 3 2016Pending Sales -20.1% and Active Listings -1.6%

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INWOOD/WASHINGTON HEIGHTS

-13.7%

MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS/HARLEM

-14.8%

HAMILTON HEIGHTS

53.8%

UPPER WEST SIDE

-18.3%

EAST HARLEM

19.2%

UPPER EAST SIDE

-17.4%

CHELSEA

-27.5%

MIDTOWN EAST/CENTER

--10.9%

WEST VILLAGE

-12.1%

MURRAY HILL

-15.5%

TRIBECA

-3.3%

GRAMERCY/FLATIRON

--25.0%

BATTERY PARK CITY

-11.9%

LOWER EAST SIDE

-1.9%FINANCIAL DISTRICT/CIVIC CENTER

-1.7%

BOND HEAT INDEXCHANGE IN PENDING SALES WITHIN 3RD QTR 2016

For a more in-depth analysis of your neighborhood, contact your BOND agent today.

EAST VILLAGE

-18.4%

MIDTOWN SOUTH

-15.2%

KIPS BAY

-16.1%

SOHO

-18.3% NOLITA

-66.7%

GREENWICH VILLAGE

-10.5%



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LOOKING BACKQTR 3 2016 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2016 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2015

Properties Sold 2,340 +22.31% 1,818 -19.32% 2,792

Pending Sales 3,160 -19.81% 3,786 +22.50% 2,449

Avg Price $2,050,311 -1.71% $2,085,330 +17.13% $1,699,093

Median Price $1,075,000 -16.74% $1,255,000 +9.30% $975,000

Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,489 -2.86% $1,532 +7.45% $1,378


Days on Market September 2015 - September 2016

Marketwide, pricing showed mixed results. The average home price was up 17.13% year-over-year, but it remained steady quarter-over-quarter at $2,050,311. The median price was down 16.74% quarter-over-quarter, but up 9.30% year-over-year. Contracts signed were down 19.81% quarter-over-quarter, but up 22.50% year-over-year. By price category, the number of properties sold in the $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 range slipped from 11% of the total market compared to 9% in Quarter 3, 2016. The number of properties sold in the $5,000,000 and higher category were 8%, a slight increase year-over-year. More condos sold compared to co-ops in Quarter 3, 2016 in contrast to Quarter 3, 2015 where co-ops were favored. The number of days on market indicated a slower paced market year-over-year, up 9.2% and up 16% since the start of the year.

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*Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding

CLOSED SALES*

BY PRICE CATEGORY

BY SIZE YEAR-OVER-YEAR BY SIZE QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER

BY PROPERTY TYPE QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER

BY PROPERTY TYPE YEAR-OVER-YEAR

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15QT

R 2

2016

QTR

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16

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$0–$500K $500K–$1M $1M–$2M $2M–$3M $3M–$5M $5M+

20%

STUDIOSTUDIO

CO-OP

1BR1BR

CONDO

2BR3BR+

QTR 3 2015

QTR 3 2016

QTR 3 2016

13% 35% 26% 9% 8%

12% 34% 27% 11% 8% 9%

QTR 2 2016QTR 3 2016

QTR 3 2015

53%47%

15% 16%

39%29%

QTR 3 2016 QTR 2 2016

44% 56% 44% 56%51%48%

16% 35% 25% 10% 7% 6%

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BONDREPORT QTR 3 2016CONDO MARKET MATRIX

QTR 3 2016 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2016 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2015Avg Price $3,024,162 +9.00% $2,752,062 +22.57% $2,341,482

Median Price $1,675,000 +8.96% $1,525,000 +11.94% $1,475,000

Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,729 +2.11% $1,693 +8.50% $1,582

Studio (median) $670,000 +1.49% $660,000 -4.63% $701,000

1 Bedroom (median) $1,035,000 +3.48% $999,000 +2.43% $1,009,900

2 Bedroom (median) $1,985,000 -0.76% $1,999,999 +5.36% $1,878,671

3+ Bedroom (median) $4,836,687 -4.21% $5,040,337 +9.03% $4,399,999

The average price for a condo in Quarter 3, 2016 crossed the $3,000,000 threshold at $3,024,162. This can be attributed to the closings of new development properties and not a reflection of the resale market as a whole. The median price was $1,675,000 up 8.96% from the previous quarter and up 11.94% year-over-year. By size, the median price for studios in Quarter 3, 2016 was $670,000, for 1 bedrooms, $1,035,000, for 2 bedrooms, $1,985,000, and for 3+ bedrooms, $4,836,687. Pending sales were up 14.5% year-over-year and up 6% year-to-date. The number of active listings for Quarter 3, 2016 showed a large increase both year-over-year and since the start of the year at 39.7% and 41%, respectively.

Pending Sales +14.5% and Active Listings +39.7%Condo September 2015 - September 2016

Pending Sales: +14.5% Active: +39.7%

Pending Sales: -16.3% Active: -2.7%


Pending Sales -16.3% and -2.7% Active Listings Condo Within Quarter 3 2016

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BONDREPORT QTR 3 2016CO-OP MARKET MATRIX

QTR 3 2016 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2016 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2015Avg Price $1,271,230 -3.87% $1,320,447 +4.99% $1,207,760

Median Price $785,000 +1.78% $771,000 +4.46% $750,000

Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,120 -0.73% $1,128 +5.16% $1,062

Studio (median) $450,000 +3.33% $435,000 +4.44% $430,000

1 Bedroom (median) $722,000 +1.66% $710,000 +3.74% $695,000

2 Bedroom (median) $1,315,000 +4.94% $1,250,000 +1.10% $1,300,500

3+ Bedroom (median) $2,400,000 -17.08% $2,810,000 -2.08% $2,450,000

Total Inventory 8338 -6.82% 6038 -13.42% 6974

Total new Inventory 1698 -19.75% 1698 4.10% 1631The average price for a co-op was $1,271,230 for Quarter 3, 2016, down -3.87% quarter-over-quarter, but up 4.99% year-over-year. The median price showed almost no change quarter-over-quarter at $785,000. By size, the median price for studios in Quarter 3, 2016 was $450,000, for 1 bedrooms, $722,000, for 2 bedrooms, $1,315,000, and for 3+ bedrooms, $2,400,000. Pending sales were down slightly since the start of the year at 5%, but were up 15.1% year-over-year. The number of active listings on the market in Quarter 3, 2016 showed a large increase of 57% since the start of the year and were up 32.0% year-over-year.


Pending Sales -22.5% and Active Listings +4.0%Co-op Within Quarter 3 2016

Pending Sales: -22.5% Active: +4.0%

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Pending Sales: +15.1% Active: +32.0%

Co-op September 2015 - September 2016 Pending Sales +15.1% and Active Listings +32.0%

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LUXURY MARKET MATRIX

TOWNHOUSE MARKET MATRIX

The luxury market is defined as the top 10% of all co-ops and condo transactions. The entry threshold for Quarter 3, 2015 was $4,317,066. The average luxury price for Quarter 3, 2016 was $8,967,486, slipping just below the $9,000,000 of the previous quarter, however, still considerably higher than Quarter 3, 2015. The median price was $6,721,805 compared to $6,888,602 in Quarter 2, 2016. The average price per square foot showed almost no change at $2,829 compared to Quarter 2, 2016 at $2,846.

The townhouse market is a unique market with the smallest inventory and buyer pool of any submarket. As a result, the number of transactions are fewer and the data reflects this. The average price for Quarter 3, 2016 was $6,311,291 and the median price was $4,600,000. The average price per square foot was $1,722.

DID YOU KNOW...?Originated in 1904 by designers George C. Heins and Christopher Grant La Farge, subway tile, a ubiquitous 3-by-6-inch rectangle, first seen in a New York subway station, quickly made its way into kitchens and bathrooms across the country and was associated with anything you wanted to be very clean.

QTR 3 2016 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2016 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2015Avg Price $8,967,486 -1.47% $9,099,284 +25.48% $6,682,966

Median Price $6,721,805 -2.48% $6,888,602 +19.71% $5,396,725


QTR 3 2016 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2016 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2015Avg Price $6,311,291 +32.36% $4,269,052 -14.44% $7,222,403

Median Price $4,600,000 +39.89% $2,765,000 +7.61% $4,250,000


Source: Apartment Therapy, 2016

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