3 500 index prices prod. trade balance export div. d g a …€¦ · sources: eurostat, mss...
TRANSCRIPT
Sources: Eurostat, MSs notifications, DG Agri, Comext, Comtrade, GTA, ITC, AMI, Expert groups, Freshfel, Wapa….
MS PRICESEU AVG PRICES
D G A G R I D A S H B O A R D : A P P L E S 08.04.2020PRICES PROD. TRADE BALANCEINDEX EXPORT DIV.
116
93
90
85 85
87
89
93
124
111
9694
90
93
95
97
101
110
115
118
104104
96
89
8685 85 85
8688
9592
96
90
96
90
85
8382 82 81
8283
90
83
8685
89
8381
79 78 7977 78
79
85
7576
8078
68
72 73
7172
7172 72
76
66 66
71
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in France (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and
packaged
42
52
60 5962 61
5961
87
73
84
90 9189 89
95 94
99
104
109
92
58 59
58 58 59 58 5859 60
62
6568
60
49 51 4948 49 48 49 49
5052
5456
50
41
44
4038 39 39 39 39
4041
43 4441
3230
23 2225
2628
29 30
33
38
3129
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Germany (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
62
6668
70 7071 72
7373
74
8687 87 88
9190
93
99
103
105
90
6968
7273 73 74
7574
75
78
80 80
74
67
65
68 68 6969 70
6970
7274
73
69
65
6163 64 64 64 65
6465
6667
65 65
60
52 52 52 5354
56 55
60 5960
56 56
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Italy (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19
Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line
5 year avg 66% lower line
Monthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
58
6264
63 6465
66
69
79
74
7678
77 77
7981
83
8990
92
81
65
6361 61 60 60
6162
63
67 6768
63
61
58
56 55 55 56 56 5758
6160
61
58
56
53
5150 50 51 51 51
52
55
53 5453
49
42
40 4142
4344
4748
50
4644 45
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in the EU (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg) Simple avg of 4 MSs (the 4 major producers)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19
Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line
5 year avg 66% lower line
Monthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
14
37
39
38 38
40
44
4948
3840
40
3837
41 41
44
4746
47
42
35
30
27 26 27 26
28
30
33
38
34
35
3031
27
2322
23 2324
2627
31
29 29
2627
24
1918
19 1921
2322
25
2324
2322
19
14
12
10
14
16
19
10 10 10
12
14
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Poland (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg€/100 kg
1 169
1 5761 444
1 6741 515
1 424 1 467
2 122
2 456
2 280 2 272
1 704
1 912
2 200
2 900
3 170
3 750
3 979 4 035
2 870
4 000
972
804
1 116973 1 033
597
1 100
3 1133 259 3 744
3 359
2 923
2 766
2 766
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
EU apples supply (usable production), cider apples included (000 tonnes)The 4 major EU producers + other producers (24 MSs)
France Italy Poland
Germany EU-other
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
EU Supply (usable production) 10 359 11 262 12 061 11 937 11 741 9 362 11 983
Imports (fresh) 891 576 401 451 428 551 401
Total Supply (prod.+imports) 12 199 12 912 13 331 13 370 13 071 11 483 13 227
-Apparent Fresh Consumption 7 414 7 086 7 695 7 797 7 675 7 079 7 714
-Apparent processing consumption 3 842 4 221 3 854 3 988 3 920 3 667 3 956
-Exports (fresh) 943 1 605 1 782 1 585 1 476 737 1 557
10 359
11 262
12 061 11 937 11 741
9 362
11 98312 199
12 91213 331 13 370
13 071
11 483
13 227
7 4147 086
7 695 7 797 7 675
7 079
7 714
3 8424 221
3 854 3 988 3 9203 667
3 956
943
1 605 1 782 1 585 1 476
737
1 557
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
Years-->
Apples - key balance indicators including consumptionMarketing year: Aug to Jul - 000 tonnes
EU Supply (usableproduction)
Imports (fresh)
Total Supply(prod.+imports)
-Apparent FreshConsumption
-Apparent processingconsumption
-Exports (fresh)
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17[e] 2017/18[f] 2018/19[f]
Market Access (Imp./Cons. %) 16,9 15,1 12,2 12,8 12,2 20,7 11,7
Exported fresh production % 13,3 20,8 22,5 19,0 18,4 10,9 19,8
Apparent Fresh Cons. Kg/person 12,1 13,2 12,9 14,1 13,6 12,8 13,1
16,9
15,1
12,2
12,8
12,2
20,7
11,7
13,3
20,8
22,5
19,0
18,4
10,9
19,8
12,1
13,212,9
14,1
13,6
12,813,1
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Years-->
Apples - key balance indicators including consumption (+)Marketing year: Aug to Jul - Units: % and kg per person (consumption)
Market Access(Imp./Cons. %)
Exported freshproduction %
Apparent Fresh Cons.Kg/person
300 000
500 000
700 000
900 000
1 100 000
1 300 000
1 500 000
1 700 000
1 900 000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
ExtraEU trade for apples - Aug to Jul - Tonnes
Exports
Imports
Severe weather event: spring frosts in 2017 destroyed 23 % of the crop (calculated on 3
year average crop)
Update
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2
INDEX
0. Summary overview, market update
1. Prices
* EU prices
* MS prices for major producers
2. Production (by variety + extreme weather events + stocks)
3. Trade
* Evolution of the trade balance
* Import monitoring
* Export development
4. Key balance indicators including CONSUMPTION
5. Export diversification
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3
0. SUMMARY OVERVIEW, MARKET UPDATE
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS – Marketing year 2019/20
1. As expected from a moderate crop, prices during the ongoing campaign are moving within ranges significantly above the average price for the historical reference 5 year
period. During recent weeks EU demand seems to be at good levels and provisional EU average March ‘20 prices are 22% above the reference period average.
2. When comparing to the difficult preceding marketing year (excess of supply in some Member States, especially in Poland) a very important price recovery was observed.
Marketing year 2019/20 started the 1st of August. According to Wapa/Prognosfruit the new crop is relatively small (-20% on preceding year and -11% below 5 year reference
average). In this context average prices for the new crop are expected to go far beyond the 5 year average).
3. The remaining stocks from the preceding crop were rather high but there was small impact from these stocks since represent just 4,6% of the average crop. EU apple stocks
on 1.12.2019 were at the lowest of the last 7 years.
4. The EU price average is significantly above the reference average. At Member State level, however, situations diverge to some extent:
- prices in PL had a major positive change from previous very low levels;
- FR prices are above reference average but lower than the preceding campaign (this is an exception to the rule, France increased production during this period);
- DE prices were above average;
- IT prices recovered gradually from a difficult end to the previous marketing year and stabilized slightly above reference levels,.
5. During the ongoing campaign there are two important factors to look at that are fundamental for EU prices and farm incomes:
a) internal EU;
b) the EU dynamism in the use of all possible extra-EU export opportunities.
6. Weather factors are also to be observed carefully because of their influential weight in quality (sugar content, taste, colour…) and especially as a major element that will
determine whether or not the crop can be stored for a long time in excellent quality conditions.
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4
1. PRICES
1.1. EU Prices
1.2. MS prices for major producers
* Poland (1st EU28 volume producer)
* Italy (2nd)
* France (3rd)
* Germany (4th)
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5
Market summary
58
6264
63 6465
66
69
79
74
7678
77 77
7981
83
8990
92
81
65
6361 61 60 60
6162
63
67 6768
63
61
58
56 55 55 56 56 5758
6160
61
58
56
53
5150 50 51 51 51
52
55
53 5453
49
42
40 4142
4344
4748
50
4644 45
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in the EU (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg) Simple avg of 4 MSs (the 4 major producers)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19
Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line
5 year avg 66% lower line
Monthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
DATA
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6
+1 %
+8 %
-1 %
+1 %
66->69
44->49
72->73
89->93
118->122
182->185
103->106
109->114
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Feb ->Mar ‘20,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Feb to Mar %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Feb to Mar %
Feb ->Mar ’20, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – March 2020 (prov.)
+5 %
+10 %
+1 %
+5 %
0 %59->61 120->124DE-Germany +4 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
Provisional
price data for
Mar. in graphs
(up to week 13)
DATA
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7
+1 %
+7 %
+1 %
-1 %
65->66
40->44
71->72
87->89
117->118
176->182
103->103
106->109
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Jan ->Feb ‘20,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Jan to Feb %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Jan to Feb %
Jan ->Feb ’20, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – February 2020
+2 %
+10 %
+1 %
+2 %
0 %61->59 126->120DE-Germany -4 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
DATA
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8
0 %
0 %
+1 %
0 %
64->65
38->40
70->71
85->87
115->117
167->176
102->103
104->106
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Dec ’19 ->Jan ‘20,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Dec to Jan %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Dec to Jan %
Dec ’19 ->Jan’20, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – January 2020
+2 %
+6 %
+1 %
+2 %
-1 %62->61 127->126DE-Germany -2 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
DATA
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9
0 %
+4 %
0 %
-1 %
63->64
38->38
70->70
85->85
114->115
171->167
102->102
103->104
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Nov->Dec ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Nov to Dec %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Nov to Dec %
Nov->Dec ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – December 2019
+1 %
+1 %
+1 %
-1 %
+1 %59->62 123->127DE-Germany +4 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
DATA
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10
-1 %
-3 %
+1 %
-3 %
64->63
39->38
68->70
90->85
114->114
173->171
100->102
106->103
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Oct->Nov ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Oct to Nov %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Oct to Nov %
Oct->Nov ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – November 2019
-2 %
-4 %
+3 %
-6 %
-2 %59->59 121->123DE-Germany 0 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
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11
-3 %
-16 %
+5 %
-5 %
62->64
37->39
66->68
93->90
107->114
138->173
102->100
104->106
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Sep->Oct ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Sep to Oct %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Sep to Oct %
Sep->Oct ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – October 2019
+3 %
+5 %
+2 %
-3 %
-4 %52->59 102->121DE-Germany +14 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
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12
-5 %
-14 %
-3 %
-7 %
58->64
14->37
62->66
116->98
96->109
44->138
93->102
120->110
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Aug->Sep ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2019/20, changes
from Aug to Sep %Seasonal factors, 5 year avg price,
changes from Aug to Sep %
Aug->Sep ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – September 2019
+9 %
+168 %
+7 %
-15 %
+3 %42->52 84->102DE-Germany +26 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Market summary
Previous month
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13
+1 %
-1 %
-11 %
+23 %
56->58
12->14
56->62
110->116
94->96
38->44
74->93
140->120
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Jul->Aug ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
18/19->19/20, changes
from Jul to Aug %5 year avg price,
changes from Jul to Aug %
Jul->Aug ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – August 2019
+3 %
+18 %
+11 %
+5 %
-11 %48->42 86->84DE-Germany -14 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Previous month
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14
0 %
-4 %
0 %
0 %
55->56
10->12
65->56
96->110
92->94
31->38
86->74
123->140
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
Jun->Jul ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2018/19, changes
from Jun to Jul %5 year avg price,
changes from Jun to Jul %
Jun->Jul ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – July 2019
+2 %
+18 %
-14 %
+14 %
+2 %49->48 90->86DE-Germany -3 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Previous month
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15
-2 %
-6 %
+2 %
-9 %
55->55
10->10
67->65
93->96
89->92
30->31
91->86
108->123
EU
PL-Poland
IT-Italy
FR-France
May->Jun ‘19,
Price, €/100 kg
2018/19, changes
from May to Jun %5 year avg price,
changes from May to Jun %
May->Jun ‘19, comparison to
5 year avg, base = 100 %
Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – June 2019
+0 %
-3 %
-3 %
+4 %
+5 %50->49 95->90DE-Germany +0 %
CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO
Previous month
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16
14
37
39
38 38
40
44
4948
3840
40
3837
41 41
44
4746
47
42
35
30
27 26 27 26
28
30
33
38
34
35
3031
27
2322
23 2324
2627
31
29 29
2627
24
1918
19 1921
2322
25
2324
2322
19
14
12
10
14
16
19
10 10 10
12
14
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Poland (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg€/100 kg
DATA
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17
62
6668
70 7071 72
7373
74
8687 87 88
9190
93
99
103
105
90
6968
7273 73 74
7574
75
78
80 80
74
67
65
68 68 6969 70
6970
7274
73
69
65
6163 64 64 64 65
6465
6667
65 65
60
52 52 52 5354
56 55
60 5960
56 56
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Italy (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19
Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line
5 year avg 66% lower line
Monthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
DATA
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18
116
93
90
85 85
87
89
93
124
111
9694
90
93
95
97
101
110
115
118
104104
96
89
8685 85 85
8688
9592
96
90
96
90
85
8382 82 81
8283
90
83
8685
89
8381
79 78 7977 78
79
85
7576
8078
68
72 73
7172
7172 72
76
66 66
71
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in France (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and
packaged
DATA
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19
42
52
60 5962 61
5961
87
73
84
90 9189 89
95 94
99
104
109
92
58 59
58 58 59 58 5859 60
62
6568
60
49 51 4948 49 48 49 49
5052
5456
50
41
44
4038 39 39 39 39
4041
43 4441
3230
23 2225
2628
29 30
33
38
3129
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR
Apple prices in Germany (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)
Current 2019/20 (Previous) 2018/19Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN
€/100 kg
Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged
DATA
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20
2. PRODUCTION
2.1. EU production for MSs that are major producers
2.2. EU production by variety (%)
2.3. Extreme weather events
2.4. Apple stocks
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21Further detail
1 169
1 5761 444
1 6741 515
1 424 1 467
2 122
2 456
2 280 2 272
1 704
1 912
2 200
2 900
3 170
3 750
3 979 4 035
2 870
4 000
972
804
1 116973 1 033
597
1 100
3 1133 259 3 744
3 359
2 923
2 766
2 766
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
EU apples supply (usable production), cider apples included (000 tonnes)The 4 major EU producers + other producers (24 MSs)
France Italy Poland
Germany EU-other
Update coming
soon
EUROPEAN APPLE FORECAST 2019 One year Change on
EU 28 apple production by country change 5 year avg
Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 F2019 avg '14-'18 '19/'18 '19/'14-'18
Austria 169 199 157 155 188 177 40 67 184 144 131 -22 10
Belgium 288 305 220 220 318 285 234 88 231 229 231 -1 -1
Croatia 89 83 59 96 62 101 35 66 86 60 70 -30 -14
Czech Rep 103 79 118 121 131 156 139 102 145 113 135 -22 -16
Denmark 21 20 18 23 26 24 24 19 24 15 23 -38 -36
France 1 579 1 701 1 169 1 576 1 444 1 674 1 515 1 424 1 477 1 652 1 507 12 10
Germany 835 953 972 804 1 116 973 1 033 597 1 093 912 962 -17 -5
Greece 254 305 242 236 245 242 259 231 301 275 256 -9 8
Hungary 488 301 750 585 920 522 498 530 782 452 650 -42 -31
Italy 2 179 2 293 1 939 2 122 2 456 2 280 2 272 1 704 2 264 2 195 2 195 -3 0
Latvia 12 8 9 15 10 8 10 8 14 11 10 -21 10
Lithuania 46 49 39 40 27 46 50 48 62 22 47 -65 -53
Netherlands 334 418 281 314 353 336 317 228 267 285 300 7 -5
Poland 1 850 2 500 2 900 3 170 3 750 3 979 4 035 2 870 4 810 2 710 3 889 -44 -30
Portugal 251 265 221 284 272 329 263 314 267 307 289 15 6
Romania 423 412 351 387 382 336 327 230 425 319 340 -25 -6
Slovakia 32 33 36 42 46 40 17 15 44 36 32 -18 11
Slovenia 66 73 45 56 68 71 12 6 72 47 46 -35 3
Spain 486 507 391 464 505 482 495 480 476 542 488 14 11
Sweden 20 17 14 17 16 21 20 18 32 20 21 -38 -7
UK 214 226 162 204 206 243 239 207 219 210 223 -4 -6
Total: 9 740 10 746 10 095 10 929 12 541 12 326 11 834 9 251 13 275 10 556 11 845 -20 -11
Source: Prognosfruit/WAPA
Update
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AGRO-WEATHER INDEX
1. Background with main elements
2. Summary multi-event map
* main events
3. Precipitation analysis
* 90 day
* 30 day
* maps of current or recent droughts in the EU
4. Temperature analysis
* 30 day average, °C, regional deviations
* Relative number of cold days
5. Other agro-weather events
General index
WEATHER FACTORSIN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE
PRODUCTIONS
Agro-weather index
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Source: JRC
Further detail
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN EUROPE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES +/-°C ON AVG
14 Sep to 13 Oct 2019 (+/- 30 days)
The update of
this map is
temporarily
unavailable
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Data sources: WAPA&AMI
Further detail
5 838 792
5 171 880
4 389 245
3 774 410
3 055 108
2 264 072
1 535 377
962 994
549 403
598 830 573 372
417 298514 983 501 680
420 942360 042 306 384
200 410
5 239 962
4 598 508
3 971 947
3 259 427
2 553 428
1 843 130
1 175 335
656 610
348 993
-500 000
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000
5 500 000
6 000 000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
Apple stocks in the EU (tonnes) the 1st day of the month2013/14 2014/15
2015/16 2016/17
Previous 2017/18 Current 2018/19
Current campaing minus avg 5 year avg
Linear ( 5 year avg)
Current stocks minus 5 year average age
Update
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666 912
782 635
614 835
719 302
791 036
728 695
572 383
413 591
661 174
729 899 734 790
814 124 807 843
774 238765 001
591 376
364 151
672 191
641 454626 561
712 520 705 999 710 298
667 795
518 725
307 617
611 371590 392
516 758
624 854
600 000609 691
462 085
357 386
185 986
493 394
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
550 000
600 000
650 000
700 000
750 000
800 000
850 000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YEAR AVG
Apples - Monthly unstocking rates in the EU - tonnes
Current 2018/19 Previous 2017/18
Monthly 5 year MAX +/-66% upper line
5 year avg +/-66% lower line
Monthly 5 year MIN
tonnes
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3. TRADE
3.1. Evolution of the trade balance
3.2. Import monitoring
2.3. Export development (export diversification is under section 5)
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300 000
500 000
700 000
900 000
1 100 000
1 300 000
1 500 000
1 700 000
1 900 000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
ExtraEU trade for apples - Aug to Jul - Tonnes
Exports
Imports
Severe weather event: spring frosts in 2017 destroyed 23 % of the crop (calculated on 3
year average crop)
Update
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TOTAL Tonnes
Source: GTA
Update
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TOTAL Tonnes
Source: GTA
Update
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4. KEY BALANCE INDICATORS
including CONSUMPTION
- Production
- Imports
- Total supply (production +imports)
* Apparent fresh consumption
* Apples for processing
* Exports
- Market access (Imports/Fresh consumption)
- Fresh production exported (%)
- Apparent fresh consumption (kg/person)
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32Further detail
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[e] 2018/19[f]
EU Supply (usable production) 10 359 11 262 12 061 11 937 11 741 9 362 11 983
Imports (fresh) 891 576 401 451 428 551 401
Total Supply (prod.+imports) 12 199 12 912 13 331 13 370 13 071 11 483 13 227
-Apparent Fresh Consumption 7 414 7 086 7 695 7 797 7 675 7 079 7 714
-Apparent processing consumption 3 842 4 221 3 854 3 988 3 920 3 667 3 956
-Exports (fresh) 943 1 605 1 782 1 585 1 476 737 1 557
10 359
11 262
12 061 11 937 11 741
9 362
11 98312 199
12 91213 331 13 370
13 071
11 483
13 227
7 4147 086
7 695 7 797 7 675
7 079
7 714
3 8424 221
3 854 3 988 3 9203 667
3 956
943
1 605 1 782 1 585 1 476
737
1 557
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
Years-->
Apples - key balance indicators including consumptionMarketing year: Aug to Jul - 000 tonnes
EU Supply (usableproduction)
Imports (fresh)
Total Supply(prod.+imports)
-Apparent FreshConsumption
-Apparent processingconsumption
-Exports (fresh)
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2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17[e] 2017/18[f] 2018/19[f]
Market Access (Imp./Cons. %) 16,9 15,1 12,2 12,8 12,2 20,7 11,7
Exported fresh production % 13,3 20,8 22,5 19,0 18,4 10,9 19,8
Apparent Fresh Cons. Kg/person 12,1 13,2 12,9 14,1 13,6 12,8 13,1
16,9
15,1
12,2
12,8
12,2
20,7
11,7
13,3
20,8
22,5
19,0
18,4
10,9
19,8
12,1
13,212,9
14,1
13,6
12,813,1
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Years-->
Apples - key balance indicators including consumption (+)Marketing year: Aug to Jul - Units: % and kg per person (consumption)
Market Access(Imp./Cons. %)
Exported freshproduction %
Apparent Fresh Cons.Kg/person
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5. EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
- Map of top world importers/exporters of apples with their prices
- Bar chart on top world importers/exporters and annual growth rates
- Key trade indicators on top world importers/exporters of apples
- Main apple traders in the world and degree of diversification
- Ranking of countries with the most negative trade balance (value terms)
- World consumption of apples, main players
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35Further detail
TOP WORLD IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS – 080810 - 2018
CIF IMPORT PRICE $/ton
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36Further detail
TOP WORLD APPLE IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS 2018 and % Annual growth in value 2014-18
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TOP WORLD APPLE IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS - 080810
Further detail
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38Further detail
concentrated, few trade partners-><- diversified, many trade partners
Remark:Interesting method of analysis, the scale is not accurate, just indicative
TOP 20 APPLE EXPORTERS OF THE WORLD TO ALL DESTINATIONS - 2018 – Value Terms
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39Further detail
TOP WORLD EXPORTERS TO ALL DESTINATIONS – 080810 - 2018
FOB EXPORT PRICE $/ton
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40Further detail
TOP WORLD APPLE EXPORTERS TO ALL DESTINATIONS 2018 and % Annual growth in value 2014-18
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TOP WORLD APPLE EXPORTERS TO ALL DESTINATIONS - 080810
Further detail
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42Further detail
concentrated, few trade partners-><- diversified, many trade partners
Remark:Interesting method of analysis, the scale is not accurate, just indicative
TOP 20 APPLE EXPORTERS OF THE WORLD TO ALL DESTINATIONS - 2018 – Value Terms
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43Further detail
TRADE BALANCE FOR APPLES - CN CODE 080810
RANKING OF COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD WITH THE MOST NEGATIVE TRADE BALANCE - Thousand Euro
Source: ITC/Comtrade
Partners
Balance in
value in
2004
Balance in
value in
2005
Balance in
value in
2006
Balance in
value in
2007
Balance in
value in
2008
Balance in
value in
2009
Balance in
value in
2010
Balance in
value in
2011
Balance in
value in
2012
Balance in
value in
2013
Balance in
value in
2014
Balance in
value in
2015
Balance in
value in
2016
Balance in
value in
2017
Balance in
value in
2018
Exported
value in
2018
Imported
value in
2018
1 Germany -415 719 -372 673 -410 503 -373 012 -389 206 -320 130 -351 122 -411 619 -385 132 -456 577 -395 552 -385 784 -401 276 -535 858 -555 739 52 841 608 580
2 Russian Federation -190 339 -235 441 -277 824 -328 704 -352 071 -391 366 -501 323 -542 959 -618 771 -593 725 -466 648 -344 682 -330 543 -353 956 -434 640 3 482 438 121
3 United Kingdom -432 135 -410 887 -433 872 -467 047 -416 238 -356 821 -373 361 -357 739 -414 827 -441 041 -394 371 -428 419 -386 481 -399 375 -404 850 21 565 426 415
4 Indonesia -50 712 -53 167 -71 700 -81 458 -75 887 -92 091 -126 580 -133 831 -132 577 -132 226 -150 643 -125 184 -238 073 -278 995 -301 206 1 301 207
5 India -2 255 -10 835 -12 416 -32 975 -35 502 -54 673 -81 506 -122 631 -144 382 -149 003 -172 017 -183 034 -209 994 -268 025 -252 674 4 747 257 421
6 Mexico -109 875 -130 830 -164 094 -180 629 -163 252 -140 148 -173 279 -152 737 -226 114 -258 627 -208 297 -251 657 -210 603 -248 303 -244 976 762 245 738
7 Viet Nam -8 718 -14 497 -12 338 -11 644 -15 372 -20 436 -18 451 -18 019 -18 262 -18 145 -18 307 -34 268 -46 356 -59 110 -215 171 643 215 814
8 Taipei, Chinese -72 846 -81 980 -80 896 -77 948 -96 772 -89 514 -114 333 -104 087 -127 818 -153 500 -183 996 -214 965 -248 249 -239 335 -207 560 72 207 632
9 Egypt -12 964 -24 613 -26 454 -21 992 -37 294 -51 290 -70 614 -96 080 -180 935 -166 610 -231 251 -404 037 -297 268 -190 669 -192 685 116 192 801
10 Saudi Arabia -41 758 -63 067 -81 752 -78 713 -94 166 -85 238 -114 696 -124 423 -144 177 -140 001 -133 254 -169 897 -174 029 -161 373 -161 168 2 700 163 869
11 Thailand -40 436 -40 568 -46 812 -50 559 -60 707 -70 587 -91 515 -97 005 -121 816 -138 894 -127 919 -208 497 -215 884 -174 957 -159 477 1 802 161 279
12 Canada -74 955 -64 093 -87 148 -105 936 -103 681 -99 944 -120 696 -125 005 -158 722 -188 504 -159 885 -142 205 -201 201 -161 789 -149 767 29 419 179 186
13 Philippines -6 404 -10 619 -28 416 -21 846 -24 731 -25 811 -31 556 -47 614 -59 388 -67 601 -62 742 -79 003 -138 498 -137 729 -136 438 136 438
14 Bangladesh -7 443 -9 868 -9 095 -15 217 -15 274 -34 314 -41 025 -42 846 -39 169 -29 336 -77 965 -140 582 -139 798 -132 875 288 133 163
15 Hong Kong, China -33 439 -32 460 -36 630 -34 542 -41 578 -39 734 -45 157 -53 802 -65 829 -63 537 -68 418 -112 921 -118 510 -107 911 -132 031 35 718 167 749
16 Iraq -214 -81 904 -65 954 -112 525 -97 645 97 645
17 Malaysia -13 740 -15 584 -16 816 -19 357 -28 591 -33 177 -40 573 -41 230 -48 413 -61 666 -55 494 -95 748 -104 511 -97 857 -94 834 969 95 803
18 Sweden -75 046 -70 881 -79 616 -84 556 -76 984 -57 602 -62 416 -73 905 -84 996 -92 845 -82 277 -86 350 -82 859 -85 827 -89 865 2 805 92 670
19 Colombia -24 624 -26 779 -30 666 -40 039 -40 142 -44 646 -57 994 -65 366 -85 719 -84 274 -87 699 -90 140 -87 430 -89 314 -87 335 383 87 717
20 Belarus -10 385 -18 202 -20 416 -22 095 -24 016 -16 437 -18 343 -17 859 -22 254 -26 767 -96 732 -295 901 -256 916 -222 420 -71 420 19 600 91 020
21
United Arab
Emirates -28 336 -58 221 -70 868 -126 426 -141 415 -163 526 -189 614 -180 142 -160 326 -70 904 66 809 137 713
22 Spain -114 788 -105 042 -78 244 -139 424 -125 683 -105 437 -103 173 -89 137 -76 748 -128 836 -79 856 -66 459 -69 618 -69 511 -67 555 91 339 158 894
23 Ireland -40 743 -36 333 -51 454 -48 953 -45 618 -40 961 -43 492 -44 645 -50 193 -55 280 -53 584 -52 375 -57 758 -61 334 -66 049 5 510 71 559
24 Nepal -2 824 -7 749 -9 917 -8 890 -9 759 -13 937 -20 853 -37 569 -41 379 -59 506 59 506
25 Norway -37 362 -39 904 -42 498 -51 699 -53 553 -48 563 -51 364 -54 133 -57 789 -62 533 -56 135 -56 551 -54 910 -59 168 -56 947 217 57 164
26 Denmark -47 374 -37 452 -50 730 -57 764 -64 797 -47 157 -52 214 -55 606 -56 462 -58 080 -46 372 -51 768 -45 250 -48 382 -56 528 9 018 65 546
27 Belgium 30 048 31 535 22 401 44 028 37 138 32 985 33 019 36 639 828 19 310 -1 690 4 992 -1 734 -15 643 -52 213 87 104 139 317
28 Romania -4 155 -11 343 -11 906 -17 336 -21 176 -10 576 -8 075 -9 311 -17 899 -18 254 -20 744 -31 381 -38 350 -44 996 -46 875 1 935 48 810
29 Singapore -21 097 -21 931 -24 590 -25 603 -30 550 -30 489 -37 082 -36 156 -43 683 -45 885 -48 253 -55 960 -52 180 -47 877 -46 065 5 538 51 603
30 Finland -38 992 -31 106 -34 551 -41 205 -43 388 -33 443 -35 441 -40 564 -39 881 -43 551 -37 238 -39 699 -37 345 -42 058 -42 557 309 42 866
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The end
Thank you
GENERAL REMARKS AND DISCLAMERS
1. Where the EU is listed it should be read as “EU+UK” since 1 February 2020.
2. Due to different timings of data processing in different slides and some other factors, such as the intermediate data carrier and methodologies, some differences on figures referred to similar or almost identical indicators are possible.ge
3. This a working document intended for reflection and analysis not containing any official position of the European Commission.