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The European Security Architecture in 2015

Pol De Witte

Helsinki, 5 October 2006

Atlantic Council of Finland in cooperation with the Embassy of Belgium in Helsinki

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Introduction

Why this theme? Not limited to Europe, no “architecture” “Preparing the future”

Main sources: Initial Long-term vision for European

Defence Capability and Capacity Needs, EDA, October 2006

Active Diplomacy for a Changing World, FCO, March 2006

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Structure of the presentation

Main factors driving international developments

Impact on military operations

Impact on main international players in the security realm (UN, NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)

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1. Main factors driving international developments

Economy Demography and migration Pressure on resources Climate change Religion and identity Poverty and poor governance Security and conflict Science and innovation

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Europe will continue to grow modestly China 2nd global economyby 2015, India 3rd by 2025

Economy

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GDP p.c. over 40.000 USD in EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea in 2015

Economy

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Demography

World population appx 7.5 bn by 2015

Populationof China and India together 2.6 bn by 2015, close to 2.9 bn by 2025

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Demography

Old age dependency ratio by 2015: 26% in EU

10-11% in Asia and Latin-America

7-8% in Africa, Middle East and North Africa

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Pressure on resourcesDemand for energy will grow.

The Gulf will remain the main oil-supplying region but others (Russia and countries in Central Asia, West Africa and Latin America) will have an important role in a tight market.

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Climate change

Will result in higher average surface temperatures and sea levels in the next decade.

Some part of the world, including Africa, will be worse hit than others.

The impact of melting ice sheets on sea levels will affect Antarctica and Greenland.

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Religion and identity Democracy and the market economy

have spread across much of the world.

But over the next decade they may be challenged by alternative models of development, whether based on extreme religious or social ideologies or on economic openness inadequately matched by political freedom.

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Religion and identity Rapid social and economic change

creates tension in all social societies, especially on those which have not shared in the benefits of globalisation.

Some pursue extreme political and social objectives under the guise of religion.

Countering the extremists’ message and encouraging dialogue will be a key task.

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Poverty and poor governance

Poverty, conflict, poor governance and environmental degradation will affect the lives of people more in a number of countries in the world unless tackled energetically.

The Millennium Development Goals will be missed unless countries show greater commitment to meeting their obligations

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Poverty and poor governance The international community will need to

reduce conflict, improve governance, make globalisation work and provide new resources for development.

It is key to supporting the development of effective and accountable governments, able to provide security, justice, opportunity and basic services for their citizens, particularly in Africa.

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Security and conflict

Major threats to our security stem from terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and regional conflicts (failed states, organised crime) (European Security Strategy, 2003)

Conflict, particularly within states, will not disappear and will be driven by new pressures, particularly on fragile states.

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Security and conflict

Serious flashpoints will remain, e.g. in Asia (Korean peninsula, India/Pakistan, Afghanistan), in the Middle East (Israel/Palestine, Iran, Iraq), and in Africa (Sudan, DRC) but…

…we need to stay engaged in the Balkans and to work to establish strong relations with Russia and our other European neighbours.

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Science and innovation

Information technology has been the main driver and pushed forward globalisation and its overall effects.

The risks are obvious: proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, internet exploited to propagate ideologies and as communication network.

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Science and innovation

Armed forces can expect the universal availability of communication and knowledge as well as new levels of precision of and protection against lethal effects.

However, it will be even more difficult in future for publics to accept casualties.

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2. Impact on military operations (NATO/ESDP)

”Battlefield” of lesser significance Operations will be influenced by “information

age” Focus must be on expeditionary forces capable

of swiftly dealing with a wide array of threats High intensity operations will remain as the

benchmark More complex and comprehensive operations Political, civil, economic and military efforts

must be coordinated (EBAO / CPA)

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Effects-Based Approach to Operations (EBAO)

Developed by Allied Command Transformation (AC-T)

Involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes

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Concerted Planning and Action (CPA)

Danish initiative

Improve practical cooperation and arrangements with other actors in NATO’s operations and missions as well as our internal procedures

Requires better coordination and consultation at operational, strategic and institutional level; further refinement of NATO’s internal processes, incl. for operational planning

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3. Impact on main international players (UN, NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)United Nations

« A fork in the road » (Sep 2003) « A more secure world: our shared

responsibility » (High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, December 2004)

« In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all » (Report by SG Kofi Annan, March 2005)

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3. Impact on main international players (UN, NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)United Nations

Development, security and human rights reinforce each other

Millennium Development Goals Comprehensive collective action (States,

civil society, private sector, regional and global intergov’tal institutions)

Peacebuilding Commission Reinforcing (sub)regional organisations UN as a catalyst.

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NATO:- Article 5 (threats of 21st century)- Increasingly dealing with stabilisation and

reconstruction- Demanding operations (EBAO /CPA) with robust

RoE- NATO Response Force- Enhanced relations with UN, EU, OSCE- Membership: 32+ (effect on decision making?)- Intensified dialogue / MAP- Partnerships (EAPC/PfP, MD, ICI, Contact

countries)- Division of labour with EU

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EU: ESDP being developed since 1999 (Helsinki) No Art 5, but mutual assistance and solidarity Effective multilateralism Enhanced relations with UN in crisis management Cooperation with regional organisations (e.g. African

Union) (local ownership) Major threats: terrorism, proliferation and regional

conflicts (ESS, 2003) Broad spectrum of tools (diplomacy, economic

assistance, civil and/or military crisis management ops, Battle Groups)

Membership: 28

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OSCE: Dependent on political will of all members

(consensus rule) Better balance between baskets: human;

political-military; economic/environmental Value added in carefully selected niche markets

(election observation, institution/capacity building, cross-border projects (transport, organised crime, smuggling), implementation of international rules (e.g. UNSCR 1373)

Laboratory for other regional organisations Membership: 60+

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Conclusion

Europe to be a global player.A more secure world in 2015? Our shared responsibility Depends on political will of nations (rather

than of international organisations) and increasingly on non-state actors

The imperative of collective action. Importance of P-5 (US, China, Russia,

France, UK9)

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Other conclusion In the twenty-first century, (…), the limits on the use of American military power in achieving our national interests are evident. A strong defense will not mitigate environmental degradation, eliminate the resource scarcities – particularly that of fresh water, brought on by massive population growth – secure human rights; or prevent ethnic or religious conflict. Military power will not end the scourge of AIDS, poverty, global warming, desertification, and the human migrations that result. The world order we seek requires changes in human behaviour, and to get there we need a willingness to work together cooperatively to solve the problems we humans have created. Cultural dialogue is the necessary condition.

Barry Fulton in « Net Diplomacy », July 23, 2001

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Questions…?