FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ISSUER IN-DEPTH3 DECEMBER 2015

RATINGS

Volvofinans Bank ABLT Bank Deposits A3

ST Bank Deposits P-2

Baseline Credit Assessment baa2

CR Assessment (LT / ST) A2(cr) /P-1(cr)

KEY METRICS:

Volvofinans Bank ABSEK billion 2012 2013 2014

Total Assets 28.6 29.9 29.3

TangibleCommon Equity

3.0 3.4 3.4

Net Income /Tangible Assets

0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics (adjusted)

ANALYST CONTACTS

Aleksander Henskjold 44-20-7772-1954Associate Analystaleksander.henskjold@moodys.com

Giovanni Fontana 44-20-7772-1475VP-Senior Analystgiovanni.fontana@moodys.com

Oscar Heemskerk 44-20-7772-5532Associate Managing Directoroscar.heemskerk@moodys.com

Volvofinans Bank AB

Strong Profitability and Asset QualityUnderpin Credit StrengthSummary OpinionVolvofinans Bank AB (A3 Stable, baa2)1 , Sweden's largest car financing entity by marketshare, has been a major beneficiary of the increase in the country's car sales over the past threeyears. Last year was a record year for the company's operating profits and we expect 2015 to beeven stronger. Our expectations are supported by continued high levels of car sales in Swedenand the bank's track record of stable earnings and strong asset quality, with the Volvo dealersguaranteeing around 70% of lending.

» Increased car sales over the past three years have boosted credit volumes andimproved profitability. Sweden's car buying spree has helped Volvofinans improveits return on equity to 9.8% at end-September 2015 from 5.7% in 2012. At the sametime, the bank has a track record of stable earnings, benefiting from diversified revenuestreams, including credit cards and truck financing aside from its core car financebusiness. The upgrade of Volvofinans' Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to baa2from baa3 in May 2015 reflected our expectation that it will maintain its improvedprofitability and strong asset quality over the next 18-24 months.

» Stable and supportive ownership that underpins niche focus. Volvofinans is 50%owned by car dealers (comprising 60 companies and 200 outlets organized under ABVolverkinvest), 40% by the Sixth Swedish National Pension Fund (AP6), and 10% bycar maker Volvo Car Group. AP6 and Volverkinvest has an owner support agreementwith Volvofinans in the form of a SEK1.2 billion backup facility. The company's primaryobjective is to actively support sales of products marketed by Volvo and Renault dealersin Sweden, including car financing, leasing, servicing, and fuel.

» Strong asset quality as dealers guarantee around 70% of lending. Volvofinans'problem loan ratio is among the lowest in Europe, in line with Nordic mortgage lenders,with the majority of the bank's credit losses stemming from its credit card operations,which make up 6% of the loan book. The car dealers originate as well as guarantee thecar financing loans (70% of loans), strengthening the bank's asset quality. Althoughthe car lending guarantee carries a counterparty risk towards the dealers, we considerthis structure to be a credit strength, as the dealers have a history of strong financialperformance and the guarantee transfers credit risk, including risk related to residualvalue of the collateral, to the dealers.

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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

» Volvofinans is increasingly deposit funded, reducing reliance on market funding. The bank's deposit base increased to 56%of total funding at end-June 2015, from 10% at end-2009, reducing susceptibility to changing investor confidence. Funding risk isalso mitigated by Volvofinans' sizable liquidity portfolio and backup credit facilities from major banks and owners.

» The bank's capital consists entirely of equity, resulting in stable capital buffers. Since 2011, Volvofinans' capital base hasconsisted solely of equity and the bank reported a 21.5% common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio at end-September 2015. Despiterecent high dividend payouts (100% in 2014, up from 19% in 2013) we do not expect dividends to deplete the bank's capital ratiosin expectation of further growth and owners' recognition that the high capitalisation is a key strength for the bank.

Increased car sales over the past three years have boosted credit volumes and enhanced profitabilityVolvofinans is on track for a record year in 2015, as an expected 14% year-on-year (see Exhibit 1) growth in Swedish car sales will boostcredit volumes. The bank is the leading car financing entity in Sweden, consistently financing around 50% of all new cars and truckssold through the Swedish Volvo dealers. The main car brands sold through the Swedish Volvo dealers, Volvo, Renault (including Dacia),and Ford, accounted for a combined 27.6% of new car sales in Sweden this year until October.

Exhibit 1

Historic car sales volumes in Sweden and 2015 expected volume

Source: BIL Sweden

Although low interest rates in Sweden put pressure on interest income, reduced funding costs combined with higher lending volumehave increased profitability, boosting the return on equity to 9.8% in Q3 2015 from 5.7% in 2012. Market funding was 44% of totalfunding at end-June 2015, and Volvofinans has been able to take advantage of reduced funding costs in Sweden since 2011 andbenefitted from increased investor confidence. Credit spreads (relative to Stibor) fell to around 70 basis points in third quarter of 2015from over 150 basis points in 2011.

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3 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

We expect that Volvofinans will continue to benefit from stable low funding costs as long as the dealers carry the majority of the creditrisk and residual value risk in the loan book. However, we do not expect the bank's funding costs to continue to fall as these are now on

par with Swedish mortgage lenders, such as Lansforsakringar Bank (A1 stable, baa1)2 , which we do not consider sustainable in the longterm as it does not seem to account for Volvofinans' relatively small size and niche focus.

Volvofinans' increased lending volumes also reflect the current low interest rate environment, with the Swedish repo rate at a

historically low -0.35%. We expect negative interest rates to continue until early 20173 , contributing to positive lending volumeexpectations in 2016. Low interest rates will also contribute to the increasing asset risk in the overall economy, as house prices haveincreased by 35% since early 2009 and household indebtedness is high at 176% of disposable income at end-June 2015. AlthoughVolvofinans is not directly affected by a potential slowdown or reversal in the property market, we expect any significantly adverseproperty market developments to weaken consumer confidence and general economic activity, leading to reduced car sales.

Volvofinans has a track record of stable earnings, with income before taxes holding steady even during the financial crisis. This islargely because of the bank's consistently stable market share (around 20%) and efficient cost controls, with the cost to income ratioimproving to 45% in Q3 2015 from 57% in 2009 (see Exhibit 2). The bank's diversified product offering related to owning and usingcars, as well as the credit card and truck financing products, also contribute positively to earnings generation.

Exhibit 2

Increased car sales and improved efficiency steer Volvofinans towards another record year

Source: Moody's, Company Reports

Despite diversified products, improved efficiency, and strong track record, Volvofinans' income is highly correlated with car sales. Assuch, the bank is vulnerable to events that negatively impact car sales generally, such as change in regulations or increased taxes on theuse of cars, or the brands sold by the Volvo dealers specifically, for example tighter competition.

Stable and supportive ownership that underpins niche focusVolvofinans benefits from supportive, long-term owners that have encouraged the bank to develop its products within the car financingniche. All of its owners have long-term interests in the bank and back its mission of supporting the sale of products through the Volvodealers.

Volvofinans' business model shares objectives and works closely with the Volvo dealership network, comprising 60 companies and 200outlets organized under the holding company Volverkinvest. The dealers sell cars and trucks to the customers as well as handle creditapplications based on criteria provided by Volvofinans, a largely automated process. In the event that the underwriting criteria arenot fully met, applications are transferred to Volvofinans for manual review and credit approval. While the outsourcing of originationincreases mis-selling risk for Volvofinans, the guarantee system incentivises dealers to target customers that are likely to repay, becausethe dealers ultimately bear the credit risk for the car financing. Once an application is approved, Volvofinans takes over the loan

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4 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

contract and pays the dealer. The customer then continues to pay Volvofinans according to the payment plan in the contract. Exhibit 3illustrates the close relationship between Volvofinans and the dealers.

Exhibit 3

Volvofinans provides financing through partnership with the dealers

Source: Volvofinans Bank AB

Swedish pension fund AP6 is a 40% shareholder. AP6 invests in unlisted companies, predominantly through direct investmentsin mature companies with a long-term perspective, but also some fund placements. Volvofinans constitutes 13% of AP6's directinvestments, the second largest investment in its portfolio at end-2014. In its 2014 annual report, the fund indicated confidence inVolvofinans' future. It also supports the bank, together with the dealers, through an owner support agreement consisting of an SEK1.2billion backup facility. Some uncertainty remains in connection with the proposed Swedish pension reform that, if implemented, wouldmean that AP6 would be resolved and the assets folded into the larger AP2 pension fund. However, the Swedish government has so fargiven no indication that this would be a threat to existing AP6 investments, such as Volvofinans.

A final 10% stake is held by Volvo Car Group, the market leading car brand in Sweden, constituting 19% of new cars sold year-to-date in 2015. Volvo's interests are well aligned with those of Volvofinans since the bank is the main finance provider for new Volvos inSweden and both companies benefit from increased car sales.

Strong asset quality as dealers guarantee around 70% of lendingIn addition to originating loans, the dealers provide a guarantee for all car and truck loans and leasing and also share some of the creditrisk for financial leasing within the fleet finance offering. In total, these guarantees cover around 70% of total lending. On top of theguarantees, 93% of lending is secured with collateral (usually the vehicle). Combined, this means that a credit loss in vehicle lendingcan only occur if a customer defaults, the dealer is unable to fulfill the recourse agreement, and the market value of the repossessedvehicle is less than the contractual residual value.

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5 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

This has kept problem loans low (0.45% of gross loans at end-September) in recent years, including the financial crisis. Combined withthe dealership guarantee and collateralised lending, Volvofinans is able to maintain low loan losses that have only rarely exceeded 0.1%

of total lending (0.05% at end-September). These loan losses are more in line with Skandiabanken AB (A2 negative, baa1)4 , a Swedish

mortgage lender with 0.04% loan losses at end-June, than Banque PSA Finance (Baa3 positive, ba2)5 , the French partner bank of thePeugeot and Citroën brands with 0.27% loan losses during the same period. Exhibit 4 and 5 show the development of problem loansand loan loss provisions since 2011 for Volvofinans and a selection of peers.

Exhibit 4

Volvofinans has low problem loans compared to peers...

Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

Exhibit 5

...and only a tiny proportion translates into loan losses

Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

A well functioning recourse agreement has limited Volvofinans' actual losses on the car lending and leasing business. However, thebank also offers credit cards where it carries the credit risk and has no collateral. Consequently, the credit card portfolio is the mainsource of the bank's loan losses. At end-September, problem loans stemming from credit cards stood at 10% of total problem loans,

but accounted for all net loan losses6 .

Volvofinans is becoming increasingly deposit funded, reducing reliance on volatile market fundingVolvofinans has historically been almost fully debt funded, with only 10% deposit funding at end-2009, reflecting the bank's traditionalposition as a car financing company. However, in recent years the bank has, through its online bank, succeeded in attracting anincreasing number of retail customer that use Volvofinans as their primary savings bank, reflected by increased deposits accountingfor 56% of total funding at end-June (see Exhibit 6). We view the bank's move towards retail deposit funding positively, since retaildeposits tend to be less volatile than wholesale funding sources which are sensitive to investor confidence.

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6 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

Exhibit 6

Volvofinans' deposit funding reliance has been stable at 50-60% of total funding since 2012

Source: Moody's, Company Reports

Volvofinans' deposit base comprises 172,000 customers spread all over Sweden with an average deposit size of SEK77,000. Themajority of the savings customers also have another Volvofinans product, increasing the “stickiness” of the deposit base. The bank doesnot offer the highest interest rates in the Swedish market, but offers rates considerably above those of the large banks. We also thinkthe stability in the bank's deposit base benefits from the association with the Volvo car brand.

Funding risk is also mitigated by Volvofinans' sizable liquidity portfolio, at 12% of total assets, and backup credit facilities from majorbanks, which also equals 12% of total assets including the credit facility from the owners.

The capital in the bank fully consists of equity, resulting in stable capital buffersSince 2011, Volvofinans's capital base consisted fully of equity7 (see Exhibit 7), unlike the large Swedish banks that have already issued$3.2 billion of high-trigger contingent capital instruments qualifying as additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital and had over $10 billion of Tier 2capital outstanding at end-September. Volvofinans reported a solid CET1 ratio of 21.5% at end-September, well above the total capitalratio requirement target of 18.5%, giving the bank more flexibility and room to grow, in terms of capital, than most Swedish banks. Theample equity also ensures that the bank has a solid 10.0% leverage ratio to comply with a potential future leverage ratio requirement.

Exhibit 7

Volvofinans' capital base consists fully of equity and shows improving CET1 ratio

Source: Moody's, Company Reports

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7 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

Volvofinans' strong equity position and its stable income stream will support a continuation of a high dividend policy (100% in 2014,up from 19% in 2013). However, we do not believe dividends will be maintained at a level that stifles credit growth or puts the bank'scapital adequacy under threat. Thus, even with moderate to high dividend payout we expect capital ratios to remain stable over thenext 12 to 18 months. This contrasts with a number of other Nordic banks that are struggling to meet dividend targets in a regulatoryenvironment characterised by increasing capital requirements.

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8 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

Peer Group:» SkandiaBanken AB

» Banque PSA Finance

» LeasePlan Corporation N.V.

» RCI Banque

» Socram Banque

» BMW Bank of North America

» Volkswagen Financial Services AG

Methodologies Used:

» Banks, March 2015 (179038)

Credit Opinions:

» Volvofinans Bank AB

» SkandiaBanken AB

» LeasePlan Corporation N.V.

» Banque PSA Finance

» RCI Banque

» Socram Banque

» BMW Bank of North America

Moody's Related Research

Banking System Outlook:

» Sweden, November 2015 (1007537)

Banking System Profile:

» Sweden, August 2015 (183547)

Macro Profile:

» Sweden, November 2015 (1008168)

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of thisreport and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

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9 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

Endnotes1 The ratings shown here are Volvofinans' deposit rating and its baseline credit assessment

2 The ratings shown here are Lansforsakringar Bank's deposit rating and its baseline credit assessment

3 Banking System Outlook: Sweden, November 2015

4 The ratings shown here are Skandiabanken's deposit rating and its baseline credit assessment

5 The ratings shown here are Banque PSA Finance's deposit rating and its baseline credit assessment

6 In 2012 and 2013 Volvofinans sold its portfolio of credit card related problem loans and strengthened its underwriting criteria. The current level ofproblem loans reflects these sales, as well as ongoing sales to a debt collector when loans are overdue more than 181 days.

7 The bulk of the bank's equity is located in an untaxed reserve on the balance sheet (64% of CET1 capital at end-September 2015). This balance sheet entryincreases as a result of accelerated depreciation that, in turn, reduces the bank's tax bill. Untaxed reserves essentially consist of profits that have not yetbeen taxed. In our capital calculations, we deduct taxes from the untaxed reserves and treat the net balance as equity.

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10 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

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11 3 DECEMBER 2015 VOLVOFINANS BANK AB: STRONG PROFITABILITY AND ASSET QUALITY UNDERPIN CREDIT STRENGTH

AUTHORAleksander Henskjold