Given who the beneficiaries of foresight are, a 50-year time horizon REQUIRES considering where drivers will emerge

and how their impacts will unfold in the human context over the next five

decades.

The “3 horizons” framework helps map when change might phase in and out;the Ethnographic Futures Framework

helps explore and organise what changes may arise.

“3 Horizons” and Verge EFF

1st horizon

2nd horizon

3rd horizon

Time

Dominanceof model

Pockets offuture foundIn present

2009 “2020” “2030”

“Three Horizons” Model of Change (Bill Sharpe)

Graphic courtesy of Andrew Curry, The Futures Company

EFF Verge: History

Began with frustration with limitations of STEEP taxonomy

Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries

STEEP views change from the point of origin

What categories help define our lives as human beings?

“Culture points”: highlighting key experiences as human beings

Explore change at the point of impact on people and human systems

Still arguing whether “Destroy” is a key aspect of human experience

Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact assessment.

“LOTS of people – consultants in particular – talk about the “drivers” of change.  And they’re usually referring to technology when they do so.  I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age.  Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not.  Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not.”

Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesKaipo Lum, M.A., A.B.D. FuturesGlobal Foresight Associates 

The processes and technology through which we create goods & services

The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and

use them

Social structures & relationships which link

people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

VERGE as a Scanning Framework:

VERGE was created by Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum of Global Foresight Associates.mbowman@globalforesightinc.com

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the

world around usSocial Values & Attitudes

Scientific ModelsCulture

Economic SystemsReligion

Politics & Public Policy

VERGE: changes in how we DEFINE

Example: radical biotechnology:No extinction exists between ‘natural’ and ‘artificial’; highly elastic notions of what ‘human’ looks like…

Social structures and relationships which link

people and organizations

DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle Groups

Work & EconomyHabitat & Ecosystems

Business Models & PracticesGovernment

Education

VERGE: changes in how we RELATE

Example: radical biotechnology:New ‘synthetic’ ethnicities; some ecosystems treated as living works of art; international regulatory compacts to monitorImpacts of bio-designs.

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

Information TechnologyMusic

MediaVisual ArtsLanguage

Space

VERGE: changes in how we CONNECT

Example: radical biotechnology:DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…

The processes and technology through which we produce

goods and services

EngineeringWealth

ManufacturingInnovation ProcessesLife SciencesMaterials Sciences

Nanotechnology

VERGE: changes in how we CREATE

Example: radical biotechnology:Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…

The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them

Consumer GoodsEnergy

Food & AgricultureHouse & Home

Entertainment & LeisureHealthcare

Natural Resources

Touch PointsVERGE: changes in how we CONSUME

Example: radical biotechnology:More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….

EFF Verge: Case Studies

Futures presentations / workshops by Global Foresight Associates:

About identifying eternal verities around which change swirlsFidelity BankPrice Waterhouse CoopersMassachusetts Department of EducationWomen in TechnologyNissan Motor CompanyFord Motor CompanyBabson College, Boston, Massachusetts

Future presentations / workshops by Infinite Futures:President’s Panel, American Library AssociationSingapore Civil Service College

Future presentations / workshops by Henley Centre:

Royal Borough of Kensington and ChelseaEurostar

Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesGlobal Foresight Associates

Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures

Andrew CurryHenley Centre

EFF Verge: Case Studies

Pitney Bowes:Futuring GroupGrowth Strategy Group

MTV User Profiles: Social Technologies presented at Trends conference (ask Terry Grim), “The Future of Happiness”Created user profiles for MTV’s new customers:

Today’s users increasingly pragmatic in pursuit of happinessUser profiles: enabled comparative analysis of details of users’ lives

Health and Safety Executive ScenariosProvided organizational frame and focus for rich welter of detail generated by workshop discussionsEnabled detailed comparison across the scenarios on issues critical to stakeholders and policy-makers.

Christian Crews, M.S. FuturesPitney Bowes

Andy Hines, M.S. FuturesTerry Grim, M.S. FuturesSocial Technologies

Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures

“The VERGE framework has proven extremely valuable at Pitney Bowes in translating thinking about the future into innovation and strategic decision-making. We've used VERGE in several invention and strategy contexts to organize and make sense of the changes in the customer communications environment. ...In addition, the immediacy of VERGE content provokes leaders to shift strategies ahead of potential disruptive change, and to see these disruptions as opportunities, not threats.”

Christian CrewsPitney Bowes

Touch Points

Exercise 1, morning session:

How is 2050 different from 2009?

• Globally:

• Define?

• Relate?

• Connect?

• Create?

• Consume?

• Major actors:

• Winners?

• Losers?

• Businesses?

• Organizations?

• Nations?

Personalise this, eg, young female entrepreneur; senior environmental regulatory officer; teen consumer; etc….

You have been assigned a scenario to explore.Your task is to consider what changes might arise from now until 2050 given the drivers defining your scenario.

Using the discussion questions below, imagine how 2050 in your scenario might differ significantly from life today.

What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?

How will we live together on planet Earth?

What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?

As human beings what will we be inspired to create?

How will we use the earth’s resources?

1st horizon

2nd horizon

3rd horizon

Time

Dominanceof model

YourScenario

2050Drivers

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

ImpactsImpacts

Impacts

2010 2020 2030 20502040

What would make this happen?

Create a timeline.

Reporting back.

• You have ONLY TEN MINUTES, so…

• Choose the most vivid details to make news headlines for your future, e.g.:

• Headlines,

• People in the news,

• Newsworthy events, breaking news

• Be bold, be brief, be specific.

Add details: characters and their organisations, conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:

• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:

• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how their impacts might emerge over the timeline;

• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict and collaborate;

• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do they generate as people and issues interact?

• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!

Exercise 2, afternoon session

How is 2050 different from 2009?

• Scenarios tell a vivid and plausible story about a possible future

• Drivers and emerging issues of change redefine who has resources and power

• New and old characters interact to create events in this new context

• Their interactions include conflict and tensions as well as new collaborations

• The scenario story describes not only what’s happening in 2050, but how 2050 happened: the timeline.

The processes and technology through which we create goods & services

The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we

acquire and use them

Social structures & relationships which

link people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

EFF: scenario building focused on people

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us, including:

Social Values & AttitudesScientific ModelsCultureEconomic SystemsReligionPolitics & Public Policy

Actors: opinion leaders in the news (bloggers? virtual reality celebs?); scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revplutionaries… who are they and what new models and paradigms are they proposing?

New concepts, ideas, and paradigms: actors

Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations, including:

DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle GroupsWork & EconomyHabitat & EcosystemsBusiness Models & PracticesGovernmentInternational RelationsEducation

How will we live together on planet Earth? - actors

Actors: how do businesses work together in this future -- how do unions and businesses relate? Who are the key NGOs? Is the UN still relevant? What’s the most important government agency? How do families work?

The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:

Information TechnologyMusic MediaVisual ArtsLanguageSpace

What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? - actors

Actors: who’s the most influential news source, and why? Who are the newest celebs and what do they promote? What’s the biggest media company? What’s the new diplomatic language?

The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services, including:

EngineeringWealthManufacturingInnovation ProcessesLife SciencesMaterials SciencesNanotechnology

What will we be inspired to create? - actors

Actors: who are the angel investors in this future? Who manufactures goods, and where -- what’s the newest big MNC/TNC? What is the ‘next big thing’ in this future, and who is the “Bill Gates”? What universities produce the most discoveries? Where and how is food produced?

The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them, including:

Consumer GoodsEnergyFood & AgricultureHouse & HomeEntertainment & LeisureHealthcareNatural Resources

How will we use the earth’s resources? - actors

Actors: what is the equivalent of a shopping centre? Who owns it? Is the line between producing food and consuming it distinct or blurred? Does everyone own their own home -- are homes detached, or are flats the norm? What’s the biggest energy company? What organisation provides healthcare? Who handles waste?

1st horizon

2nd horizon

3rd horizon

Time

Dominanceof model

YourScenario

2050

Drivers

Impacts

Impacts

2010 2020 2030 20502040

Who and what would make this happen?

Create a timeline.

Actors

Actors

Actors

ActorsEventsEvents

Events

Events

Events

Impacts

Events

Add details: characters and their organisations, conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:

• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:

• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how their impacts might emerge over the timeline;

• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict and collaborate;

• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do they generate as people and issues interact?

• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!

Exercise 2, afternoon session