3-w ay p robability & c ounting group 3 vanessa condie richard quach valeria ramirez january 25,...
TRANSCRIPT
3-WAY PROBABILITY & COUNTING
Group 3
Vanessa Condie
Richard Quach
Valeria Ramirez
January 25, 2011
IE 429Professor Sima Parisay
California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
3-WAY PROBABILITY CONCEPT
This feature is widely used in situations in which we want to know the amount or number of parts, components, units, etc that would be distributed to three different locations.
The importance of the probability lies in the fact that it tells the program what percentage of each item should be allocated to designated location.
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
Steps Used to Create a Probability-3 Way in Arena:
PROBLEM STATEMENT
* A beverage company produces three different types of beverages: juice, energy drinks, and soda. There are three locations that the beverage company distributes to: grocery stores, restaurants and gas stations. However, the demand at grocery stores is 45% and 30% at gas stations. The beverages arrive to the packing station with an exponential distribution with an average of 5 hrs for the juice, 8 hrs for the energy drinks, and 10 hrs for the sodas. The beverages leave the packing station with a mean of 2 hrs. The beverages then go through inspection and are then distributed to their specific locations. The company would like to know how many of each beverage will be distributed to their respective locations. Run the simulation for 10,000 hours.
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
JuiceFruitFarmExp(5 hrs)
PackStationPackingExp(2 hrs)
EnergyDrinkChemicalPlantExp(8 hrs)
Grocery Stores
Gas Stations
Restaurants
SodaCaffeineFarmExp(10 hrs)
Simulation length 10,000 hours
45%
30%
25%
Logical Model:
Probability, 3-Way Branch and Counting
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
PROBABILITY, 3-WAY BRANCH AND COUNTING
Probability, 3-Way Branch and Counting
Output
ANALYSIS OF OUTPUT:
Probability, 3-Way Branch and Counting
VERIFICATION
Item Arrival Time
Simulation Time
Simulation/Arrival
Arena Output of Items
Juice 5 hrs 10,000 hrs 2,000 2,003
Energy Drink
8 hrs 10,000 hrs 1,250 1,255
Soda 10 hrs 10,000 hrs 1,000 981
Probability, 3-Way Branch and Counting