3/16/2005 © 2005, pc weather products ww.pcwp.com pc weather products george sambataro ww.pcwp.com...

3/16/2005 © 2005, PC Weather Products

WW.PCWP.COMPC Weather Products

George Sambataro

WW.PCWP.COMPC Weather Products

George Sambataro

HURRTRAK Training Session

2005 National Hurricane Conference

New Orleans, Louisiana

http://www.pcwp.com/

http://www.pcwp.com/


Misc comments• This is primarily a training session (we will

be in exhibit area on Wed. and Thursday)

• Not currently a customer? (quick demo will be done about 1 hour into this session)

• 2 sheets will be passed around. One is a general sign up sheet. The other is a “topic you want to see covered” sheet.


Materials/more info.

• No handouts.. Can get presentation from web site.. www.pcwp.com

• Some single sheet flyers/info sheets in the back of room

• If need more info, some folders in the back of room and in vendor area


Who’s who

- George Sambataro (President PC Weather)

- Lew Fincher (Hurricane Consulting Inc)

- John O’Rourke (PC Weather Products)


ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2005

Forecast Parameter and1950-2000 Climatology (in

parentheses)

Issue Date3 December, 2004

Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

55

Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 6

Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 25

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0)

6

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%)

115


System Flow / Hurrtrak Online

Main System Components

New 2005 functions

Advanced Wind Estimation

Demonstration (script)

Initial System Setup

System / User preferences

Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules (SloshView, Recon , History, H*Wind)

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics

System / Data Flow

SloshNLCD Tide StormElevation Places RainStreet User ReconHistory System Model

HWind

HurrtrakOnlineProcess

Sloshview Recon History

HurrtrakQuickPlot

Graphics / reports(on-screen, email, fax,

pdf, print,save)

Databases

PCWP Server

Other modules +

H*WindH*Wind ModelplotModelplot


Hurrtrak Online• INTERNETINTERNET:

• Data polled every x minutes to determine if data needs to be retrieved

• Can be setup to retrieve data when main program is not running… Hurrtrak Online Timer (suggested)

• Includes all data

• Two server sites (Atlanta, Miami)

• DIRECT DIALDIRECT DIAL:

• Main use is for backup when your internet may be down

• Only contains Storm data

• Data retrieval can be scheduled


Hurrtrak Online (cont)

• Storm dataStorm data is available minutes after NHC releases it

• Rainfall forecast dataRainfall forecast data is updated by NWS 2x a day• Recon dataRecon data is batched every 20 minutes and then

made available• Model dataModel data is batched every 20 minutes and then

made available. Model data includes GFDL, UKMET, LBAR, BAMM, BAMD and NHC98

• H*Wind dataH*Wind data is supplied by AOML, we reprocess is supplied by AOML, we reprocess it and make available via the Hurrtrak Online Tabit and make available via the Hurrtrak Online Tab


Main system components

QuickPlot

Main HURRTRAK module


QuickPlot

• Excellent entry point into system• Quickly and easily displays basic

information about the current storm situation

• Displays multiple storm tracks • Easily switch to full capabilities of

HURRTRAK• Depends on Hurrtrak Online (timer)


Main HURRTRAK module

• Tab based information

• Automation capabilities

• Complete reporting

• Decision support

• Extensive mapping– Numerous fixed tracking charts including Landsat / Topo

maps

– Satellite and radar tracking charts (downloaded from internet)

– Variable (pan and zoom) tracking charts (street level)


Graphical information tabs

• Storm tracks

• Animation

• Strike probs

• Wind bands

• Rainfall

• Model forecast• 3D wind surface• Wind / pressure graph• Thematic maps


Text based information tabs

• NHC advisory text

• Observation worksheet

• Official forecast table

• Climate forecast table

• Watch and warning table


Report tabs

• Location impact

• County impact

• Zip code impact

• Impact analysis

• Strike probability


Other tabs

• Main information tab

• HURRTRAK ONLINE tab

• Internet tab

See all this in action later in presentation


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






New Functions in 2005 (1 of 2)

• Microsoft EXCEL Interface

• Enhanced Wind Estimation Methods

• Enhanced Gust Estimation

• Location Based Forecast Rainfall

• Eye & eye wall during animation

• SLOSH reports for any location group


New Functions in 2005 (2 of 2)

• Enhanced Email Alerts• Transparent eye wall • Spell Checker• Desktop Satellite program• Forecast Model Plot program• More changes likely between now and

June 1 (stay tuned to www.pcwp.com)


Microsoft EXCEL Interface

• Export any Hurrtrak table data to EXCEL– Observation worksheet– Official forecast

• Export any Hurrtrak report into EXCEL– Summary Impact report (Location, County, Zip)– Detail Hourly report– Demographic impact report


Microsoft EXCEL Interface


Enhanced Wind estimation methods

• Charley last year made use consider that an hourly wind impact analysis was not sufficient for small (eye) and/or fast moving storms.

• We have changed the analysis to iterate a location’s wind value at 30 minute intervals.

• The differences for a storm like Charley was significant (up to 47% higher winds)


Enhanced Impact Reports (AWE)• Impact reports

now show comparative information between AWE and standard wind estimation values.

• Easier than switching back and forth between AWE and non-AWE.


Location Forecast Rainfall• Up until now rain forecast could only be

shown graphically

• NWS forecast rainfall now appears in location based reports– Base Impact– Location, County, Zip impact reports– Summary Reports

• Also used in Alerts (later)


Location Forecast Rainfall


Enhanced Animation (eye wall)

• Animation now shows eye and eye wall (used to be a circle)


Enhanced Animation (eye wall)


Enhanced SLOSH reports

• Up until now, you had to define special location groups to create a SLOSH report with all locations associated to a single SLOSH basin.

• Now you can create a report for any location group. The system will decide the best (closest) SLOSH basin to use.


Enhanced SLOSH reports


Rainfall Email Alert• Added 3 day total forecast rainfall as an Email

alert criteria.

• Will automatically send an alert email when a location’s forecast rainfall exceeds a specified value.

• More on Alerts later.


Enhanced Eye Wall Depiction

Eye wall can now be

shaded with various

transparency patterns.


Spell Checking• Spell Checking add to all text entry

fields.

• Most important one is Email body entry

• English

• Spanish

• Errors are highlighted and suggestions can be displayed


Desktop Satellite• Current satellite image always displayed as your

Windows Desktop

• Adjust for sunrise (visible) and sunset (IR)

• Can specify almost any satellite image (web location)

• Images protected behind secure servers are supported (userid, password)


Desktop Satellite


Forecast Model Plot

• Previously a user could only show forecast models for current storms… and only those related to that storm

• A new capability is to show all forecast model track even if there are no storms that are having advisories issued on them


Forecast Model Plot


Month of April

• We will continue to make enhancements to the system until the end of April.. .so more enhancements are likely.


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Advanced wind estimation (AWE) (patent pending)

• AWE is a function which adjust the “interpolated” NHC winds for a location based on “site” specific characteristics.

• Information like local exposures, varying terrains, vegetation types as well as density of buildings are taken into account.

• The system then applies a wind speed adjustment resulting in more realistic estimated wind values.


AWE science (continued)

From Hurricane Andrew’s Landfall in South Florida. Part I: Standardizing

Measurements for Documentation of Surface Wind Fields

Mark D. Powell and Samuel H. Houston


AWE (continued)

• The system automatically determines the friction factor’s for a location via the NLCD (national land cover data) datasets. This can be overridden by the user.

• The friction factor is computed for each defined location taking into account possible wind flows.. i.e. an east wind into Miami is going to be stronger than a west wind.


AWE (continued)

• The area covered by the NLCD dataset are the US mainland states..

• The friction factors have been estimated for point “city” locations as well as zip code and county averages also.

• There are scientific issues with zip code and county averages especially if they are coastal areas.


Resultant Location Report


AWE Accuracy Results• Test bed of data in 2004 was great!

• We analyzed the results of 4 storms using NWS ASOS and additional research observations

• We found that AWE has resulted in a 70% reduction in wind estimation errors, compared to standard (non-awe) methods

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Error

Standard

AWE


AWE Results 2004 (summary)

• 98 observation points (4 storms)• Actual Wind speeds from 78 to 16 knots (36 avg)

• Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 63%, Standard- 6%• Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 86%, Standard - 16%• Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 97%, Standard - 48%• Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 70%• Average Percent error, AWE - 15%, Standard - 52%• See www.pcwp.com/awereports.html for details

Hurricane IVAN State Max Wind Max Wind Actual Standard AWE Standard AWE

Location Standard AWE Max Method Method Pct Pct

(knots) (knots) Wind Error Error Error Error

KPNS - Pensacola * FL 100 76 71 29 5 40.85 7.04

Fairhope * AL 112 67 59 53 8 89.83 13.56

KMOB - Mobile AL 100 59 51 49 8 96.08 15.69

KDHN - Dothan AL 54 39 44 10 5 22.73 11.36

KGPT - Gulfport MS 65 38 38 27 0 71.05 0.00

KTCL - Tuscaloosa AL 53 32 36 17 4 47.22 11.11

KNEW - New Orleans LA 46 28 35 11 7 31.43 20.00

KTLH - Tallahassee FL 43 28 33 10 5 30.30 15.15

KMGM - Montgomery AL 64 47 32 32 15 100.00 46.88

KPFN - Panama City FL 57 32 32 25 0 78.13 0.00

KBVE - Venice LA 66 49 31 35 18 112.90 58.06

KATL - Atlanta GA 38 20 31 7 11 22.58 35.48

KABY - Albany GA 43 33 29 14 4 48.28 13.79

KMSY - New Orleans LA 43 28 29 14 1 48.28 3.45

KBHM - Birmingham AL 50 28 28 22 0 78.57 0.00

KAAF - Apalachicola FL 47 28 28 19 0 67.86 0.00

KPDK - Atlanta GA 35 27 25 10 2 40.00 8.00

KASD - Slidell LA 48 26 24 24 2 100.00 8.33

KANB - Anniston AL 45 26 23 22 3 95.65 13.04

KFFC - Atlanta GA 36 24 22 14 2 63.64 9.09

K40J - Perry-Foley FL 37 22 22 15 0 68.18 0.00

KMCN - Macon GA 37 29 19 18 10 94.74 52.63

KVLD - Valdosta GA 36 27 19 17 8 89.47 42.11

21.48 5.13 66.86 16.73


AWE graphics

• AWE also works in graphic mode

– Wind arrows

– Mousepointer values

– Animation


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Active Demo

• Mapping philosophy

• QuickPlot (demonstrate system)

• Main tracking system (demonstrate system (see script)


Before demo… Mapping in HURRTRAK

Pan & Zoom(tracking charts)

Satellite, radar & SST images

(internet)

Displayed trackingchart maps on Tabs

(3 variable, 3 fixed)

Fixed map tabs

Fixed maptabs

Variable tabs

custom map

Used as a base chartfor other “tabs”…wind bands, strike probs, etc.

Predefined “fixed” tracking charts

(includes Landsat, Topo & custom maps)


Demo Script (Jeanne)• Before doing this make sure BASE LOCATION is set to Ft. Pierce• Base tabs (always there)• Show main tab• Show Hurrtrak Online tab• Show internet tab• Load Jeanne(47)• Standard tabs (after loading as storm)• Show Map Selection Tab• Show Fixed map tabs• Observation worksheet• Official forecast• Climate forecast• Watch and Warning• Wind graph• Pressure graph• Additional tabs (created from map selection tab.. and can also be done from fixed maps) • Show strike probabilities• Show rainfall analysis (1st 24 hours)• Show rainfall thematic (total• Wind bands (10 levels)• Animation (with and without AWE)• Plot track with and without track• • Additional tabs (created from fixed map tabs including those map tabs created above)• Plot using FL Landsat – then animate• Plot using Topo map• Plot using “best map”• Display chart notes• Display wind field around storm using BEST map (show mousepointer AWE)• Display location group• Plot forecast with and without average error• Plot model forecast

• Plot climate forecast• Display watch and warning areas• Display watch and warning legend• Use map select and zoom into FL area.. Plot track with “no plot”• Display forecast flood index then animate using current map• Go back to best map• Annotate• Save image• Send (using Outlook)• Print• Report tabs• Forecast strike probability• Location impact (small map group)• Export to EXCEL• Show Ft. Pierce detail• County Impact (then show thematic and impact summary)• Zip code report (then show thematic)• Point out that actual wind reports are available• TOOLS• Set “what if forecast” (West Palm Beach) or map select• Show new track on BEST map• Redo location report• Set Post Storm Analysis• Setup Summary report (later)• User prefs (later)• OTHER Items (reviewed later)• Email Alerts• Summary reports• File options• Edit options• Help options.

Quick run though of the major functions of main tracking program


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Initial system setup

• Storm Database

• Locations / Location Groups

• Base Location

• Hurrtrak Online

• Email


Define Storm DatabaseSystem setup

Hurrtrak Online

updates will be applied

to the “current” database


Define Locations / groupsSystem setup

Many functions

and reports are based on location group


Location MaintenanceSystem setup


Location Maintenance (cont)


Base LocationUser options

The base location is used to display the

summary information on

the system’s primary tab


Hurrtrak OnlineUser options

Defines the parameters

needed for an internet

connection to our servers


Hurrtrak Online (cont.)User options

This defines any special

proxy server parameters needed to navigate

through your internet servers


Hurrtrak Online (cont.)User options

Automatic polling is

required for all automated processes… as well as

making life easier in

general


Email setupUser options

• Preferred Email send method

• Image send format

• Animated GIF parameters & file size limit


Email setup (cont)User options

• Hurrtrak Send Method Parameters

• Only needed if will use native Hurrtrak Email capabilities


Email setup (cont)User options

• If MS Outlook is chosen as the Email method, you can define the address books to be searched when listing recipients.

• Performance considerations


Email addressbookUser options

If Hurrtrak Email method is chosen, the user

must define email addresses

and groups within the

Hurrtrak system


You are now setup!


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






System/user preferences

• System Setup – (options unique to the system)

• User Preferences – (options unique to a user)


System Preferences

• System options (extra county/zip data fields)

• User maintenance (define users)

• Location maintenance (city, county, zip)

• Database maintenance

• Tracking chart maintenance

• Watch & warning point maintenance

• Flood index point maintenance


System preferences (user fields)System setup


Database maintenanceSystem setup

• After initial setup and then every 2 weeks, please do a Database Backup

• A database compress every month or so will keep the file sizes down


User preferences

• Addressbook

• Addressbook alert

• Animation

• Automation/alert

• Email setup

• Flood index

• Fonts

• General

• Hurrtrak online

• Impact analysis

• Plotting

• Strike probs.

• Unit of measure

• Wind band


AnimationUser Options

Controls how storm

animation appears

Eye wall shading is

new


FontsUser Options

Controls the type, size and color of fonts


GeneralUser Options

• Setup base location

• Time zone

• Map resolution

• Spell Checking

• Desktop Satellite

• Misc. parameters


General (cont)User Options

Sets AWE options for- locations- counties - zipcodes

- wind arrows- Animation.


Impact AnalysisUser Options

Specify the states that are to be included in county and zip code reporting.


PlottingUser Options

Misc. plotting options, obs

points and eye wall shading (new), road,

lat/long, watch & warning

colors, etc.


Plotting (cont)User Options

• Controls more plotting options

• Wind Circles vs. shaded wind areas

• Track Colors

• Wind Arrows



Controls how decision arcs,

forecast average error

and rain contours will

plot



Controls the wind levels and

colors of the County and Zip Code thematic

maps



Controls the track colors of

the various forecast model

tracks


Unit of measureUser Options


Wind bandsUser Options

Defines the analysis detail and the wind band levels to

plot


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Automation (things done for you)

• TRACKING CHARTTRACKING CHART updates (tab)updates (tab)

Select tracking charts will update their content when new data has arrived.

• ReportReport updates (tab)updates (tab)

Select tab based reports will update when new data has arrived

User options control the above functions. Lets review them.


Automation user options (tab updates)

Tracking Chartupdate

Report creation

Report updating


Automation (continued)

• Summary ReportsSummary Reports

All defined summary reports will be generated… when new data arrives

• Alert EMAILAlert EMAIL

All alerts which meet trigger requirements will be created and sent… when new data arrives.

User options both define and control the above functions. Lets review the options that control and define them.


Automation user options

Specify Storms that will beconsidered foremail alerts and “generic” Summary reports


Automation user options (new data)

Specify whatconditions dictate“new data”.

Define automationschedule for emailalerts and summaryreports


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Summary Report

• Reports can be created automatically (new data) or manually.

• Includes graphical and text information.• When stormname is defined as

“ALLACTIVE”, it’s creation is controlled by Automation Alert options (“generic summary report”).

Storm(s)(ALLACTIVE)

Location/Location Group

Preview, Email, print, file

SummaryReport

Summary report

Summary

page 2


Summary report setup


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Email AlertEmail Alerts are a method of automatically Email Alerts are a method of automatically

sending an email when certain conditions sending an email when certain conditions are met. The alerts types are are met. The alerts types are

• First Advisory – new storm forming

• Change Category – storm changing strength

• Location Alerts

• Geographical Alerts

• Rainfall forecast Alerts (NEW)


Location AlertsWinds at the

location greater than a defined

wind speedCenter of storm expected to be within a certain distance.

Strike probability for location greater then the defined percentage.

Rainfall greater than a specified value


Geographical Alerts

Center of storm, with a defined

strength, expected to be within a

defined geographical area.


Email AlertAlert storm(s) Email user/group

Email alert

Geo. alert

New storm alert * Change category alert

Locationcond. alert

Alert condition

met?

Yes

* New storm alert does not need a pre-defined alert stormAlert attachments include a tracking chartand the NHC advisory text.

Attachments


Email Alert sample


Email Alert SetupGeneral parameters required to make Alerts work (we have covered all of these already)

1. Setup general Email parameters (Email setup)

2. Setup Addressbook entries (Addressbook)

3. Select “Alert automation” option (Automation/alert)

4. Setup Alert Storms (Automation/alert)

5. Setup new data parameters (Automation/alert)

6. Setup automation schedule (Automation/alert)


Email Alert Setup (cont)For a selected addressbook entry (individual or group)… define all/some of the following alerts.

New Storm

Category Change

Location alert (CPA, wind speed, strike probability)

Geographical alert (area)

… and define the desired attachments. (advisory text,and/or tracking chart.

** Note.. if you are sending an Alert to an Outlook address,you must identify this address to the Hurrtrak system.


Email Alert Setup (cont)


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Decision SupportWhile all of the outputs of the HURRTRAK system are designed to help the end user to make decisions, there are several functions which are focused specifically on decision making.


Decision Support

• Action (decision) Pointsand their affect on……

1. Reports

2. Decision Arcs

• “What if” analysis


Action Points


Reports


WHAT IF analysisBy adjusting the storm’s path, speed & intensity… the system outputs will then reflect this new track. This includes..

• Graphical Animation

• Reports

This allows the user to define the worst case scenario and see how that affects their situation


“What if” analysis


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Misc menu functions• File

– Database– Storm maintenance– Export Wind Bands (RMPRO)

– Hurrtrak Online (direct dial)– Custom Map Maker– Other program links– Inland Wind Model– Advisory ticker– Log

GIS wind band

export


Misc menu functions (cont)• Edit

– User Diary – Observations *– Official forecast *– Model forecast *– Climate forecast *– NHC advisory maint. – Watches/Warnings *

* Hurrtrak Online supplied


Misc menu functions (cont)• Tools -

Post Storm Analysis


Misc menu functions (cont)• Help

– Contents/search for– Display System Documentation– FAQ– Obtaining technical support– Software license agreement– Display system resources– About


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab/Demo Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Other Modules• SloshView – displays NWS SLOSH data• Hurricane Reconnaissance – displays hurricane hunter

info• Hurricane History– displays past storm tracks• H*WIND – displays AOML estimated wind data• Desktop Satellite – Keeps a current satellite image on

your desktop• Forecast Models – Display all forecast models even when

there are no storms being tracked by NHC


SloshView

• All analyzed SLOSH basins (USA)

• Displays “raw” SLOSH basin data

• Displays inundation map

• Inundation reports

Demonstrate later


Hurricane Reconnaissance

• Displays/decodes Vortex messages (pass)• Displays/decodes supplementary Vortex messages

(pass)• Displays/decodes RECCO reports • Displays Temperature, Wind speed and pressure

(height) graph on Vortex supplementary reports

Demonstrate later


Hurricane History

• Contains storm track information from 1851-2004

• Displays storm tracks• Displays storm origination points• Specialized query capabilities (location,

date, strength)

Demonstrate later


H*Wind display• This program displays, and creates location based

reports based on, the detailed “estimated” storm winds as provided by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab.

• This data is not operational and it released by AOML on a delayed, best can do, basis.

• It is ingested into the HURRTRAK system via Hurrtrak Online

• See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html


Desktop Satellite

• New module mentioned earlier

• Runs in system tray and updates windows desktop every 20 minutes

• Must be set in General User Preferences.

Demonstrate later


Forecast Model Display

• New module mentioned earlier

• Shows all current forecast model tracks even if NHC is not yet issuing advisories

Demonstrate later


Special requests

Is it possible to have user defined wind thresholds for graphics and reports, i.e., 25kts vs. just 34, 50, etc.

- Can we include runway headings to allow for cross-wind forecasting on the graphics?

- Would like more info on AWE and location-specific entries


Technical Information• Recommended hardware suggestions

– Pentium III/IV (faster the better)

– 512 MB Ram

– 1 Gigabyte available hard disk space

– Video card capable of 1024x768, true color

– Internet connection (Hurrtrak Online)

• Operating System: Windows 95/98/ME, Windows 2000/NT/XP


Automation

Summary report

Alerts (Email)

Decision support

Misc. menu items

Other modules

Lab Exercise

Topics



New 2005 functions






Lab/Demo Exercise• Lab/Demo Exercise

for Hurrtrak• Group users together

with laptops.. with system installed.

• 3-4 per team


Demonstrate other modules• Demo Recon program

• Demo Sloshview

• Demo HURRHIST

• Demo QuickPlot

• Demo H*Wind

• Show Desktop Satellite

• Demo Forecast Model


WWW.PCWP.COM(this presentation is available there)

WWW.PCWP.COM(this presentation is available there)

3/16/2005 © 2005, pc weather products ww.pcwp.com pc weather products george sambataro ww.pcwp.com...

Documents

pc weather products

wind data

storm data data retrieval

hurrtrak online tab

data needs

louisiana slide

windmodelplot slide

hurrtrak online timer