31st march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

1

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

Marc 31 2015


2

Brazil Rice Stocks Decline Sharply in February 2015

Mar 30, 2015

Brazil rice stocks have declined sharply to around 135,717 tons in February 2015, down about

44% from around 240,544 tons in January 2015 and down about 77% from around 582,298 tons

in February 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.


3

According to Conab, rice stocks with the Selling Option Contract of Agricultural Products

(OPCAO) have declined to around 81,671 tons in February 2015, down about 40% from around

137,089 tons in January 2015 and down about 77% from around 361,050 tons in February 2014.

Rice stocks with Federal Government Acquisition (AGF) stood at around 53,193 tons in

February 2015, down about 48% from around 102,519 tons in January 2015 and down about

76% from around 218,302 tons in February 2014. Rice stocks with farmers (Agricultural

Familiar) stood at around 853 tons in February 2015, down 9% from around 936 tons in January

2015 and about 71% from around 2,946 tons in February 2014.CONAB has forecasted the

country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.152 million tons (around 8.26 million tons,

basis milled), slightly up from around 12.122 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis

milled) in 2013-14. USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April March) paddy rice production

at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 2013-

14.

FAO Forecasts Bangladesh 2014-15 Rice Imports at 700,000 Tons, Down 36% from Last Year

Mar 30, 2015


4

In its latest country brief on Bangladesh, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization

(FAO) forecasts Bangladesh rice imports to decline to around 700,000 Tons in 2014-15 (July -

June), down about 36% from an estimated 1.1 million tons in the previous year due to an

expected increase in production in during the year.The FAO estimates the South Asian nation's

total 2014-15 cereal imports to decline about 3.7% to around 3.68 million tons from last year's

3.82 million tons.

The UN agency estimates Bangladesh 2014 paddy production from all three crops - Aman (April

- December), Aus (February - August) and Boro (October - May) - at around 52.2 million tons

(around 34.97 million tons, basis milled), up about 1.3% from an estimated 51.539 million tons

(around 34.531 million tons, basis milled). Aman, Aus and Boro account for around 38%, 7%

and 55% respectively, of Bangladesh's annual paddy production.

Harvesting of the 2015 Boro rice crop will start shortly and will continue till the end of May.

Adequate water supplies, coupled with overall good inputs availability, including fertilizer, seeds

as well as power and diesel for irrigation, benefited planting operations and crop development,

according to the FAO. However, localized crop losses are expected in some northern districts

where civil protests have led to disruptions in supply of fertilizers and fuel. The 2015 Boro rice

acreage increased slightly y/y to around 4.83 million hectares, according to the FAO.

Domestic rice prices, which have been declining since March 2014 had reversed

in August 2014 and reached a high of about 31,697 Taka (around $410) per ton in September

2014. They again started declining from November 2014 and currently they stand at about

26,463 Taka (around $340) per ton, down about 5% from about 27,750 Taka (around $357) per

ton in February 2015 and down about 16% from their year-ago levels.

Meanwhile, the government of Bangladesh is planning to procure one million tons of 2015 Boro

paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It has fixed the

procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per ton) and that for rice at Tk

32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).USDA estimates Bangladeshs MY 2014-15 (July 2014

June 2015) milled rice production to slightly increase to about 34.6 million tons from an

estimated 34.39 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates Bangladesh to import 678,000 tons of

rice in 2014 and around 500,000 tons of rice in 2015.

India Average Wholesale Rice Prices Increase in March 2015


5

Mar 30, 2015

India average wholesale rice prices, which increased in January 2015 and declined in February

2015 due to increased supplies and declining export demand, have again increased in March

2015 due expected lower production from ongoing Rabi secondary rice crop (November - May),

according to official sources. Planting for the current Rabi crop is lagging by about 412,000

hectares, or about 9.5% from the same time last year.Average monthly wholesale rice prices in

India declined to around Rs.2,746.16 per quintal in March 2015, up about 1.2% from around

Rs.2,714 per quintal in February 2015, and down about 2.7% from their year-ago levels of

around Rs.2,821 per quintal.

In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $444 per ton (using

current exchange rates) in March 2015, up about 1.4% from around $438 per ton (using

historical exchange rates) in February 2015, and down about 5.5% from around $470 per ton

(using historical exchange rates) in March 2014. The government of India, in its second

advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing

year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04 million tons, down about 3% from an

estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from the Agriculture


6

Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif rice crop and around 15.02 million

tons from rabi rice crop.

USDA estimates India's 2014-15 (October - September) production at around 102.5 million

tons, down about 4% from an estimated 106.54 million tons in 2013-14. It estimates Indias rice

exports to decline about 11% y/y to around 9 million tons in 2015 from an estimated 10.15

million tons in 2014.

Government of Sri Lanka Plans to Revive Small, Medium Rice Mills

Mar 30, 2015

The government of Sri Lanka has decided to revive the small and medium scale rice mills, which

were closed down few years back, through a concessionary loan scheme, according to a news

release on the official news portal of Sri Lanka.The government has introduced the

concessionary loan scheme from March 27, according to the news release. The Food Security


7

Minister was quoted as saying that the loan would be provided to small and medium rice mill

owners through the Bank of Ceylon and the Peoples Bank under the supervision of the Central

Bank.

The Minister noted that the small mills revival plan is part of the efforts to stabilize price during

the festive season by revitalizing the closed mills and enabling them to supply sufficient rice

stocks to meet the local demand. He added that the move would bring down the prices, which

were pushed up recently due to the manipulation of supply and demand by some market

players.Local rice prices, which reached a high or about Rs.78,560 (around $600) per ton in

September 2014, have already started coming down and stood at about Rs.73,770 (around $550)

per ton in March 2015, according to data from the UNs Food and Agriculture Organization

(FAO). However, they are about 9% higher than their year-ago prices.

IPAB Adjourns Hearing On Pakistan Petition Against Indias GI Application for Basmati Rice

Mar 30, 2015


8

The Basmati Growers Association (BGA) of Pakistan has challenged the application filed by

India's Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports Development Authority (APEDA)

with the Intellectual Properties Appellate Board (IPAB), which has accepted its petition last

month.

However, the IPAB has reportedly adjourned the hearing on the application filed by the BGA

challenging the grant of geographical indication (GI) tag for basmati rice grown in India, which

came for hearing in the last week of February 2015. The IPAB had adjourned the hearing to July

8, 2015.The BGA noted in its application that "basmati was name for slender, aromatic and long

grain variety of rice grown in specific geographical areas in the foothills of Himalayas in

Pakistan" and granting a GI tag for India's basmati would affect basmati rice farmers in Pakistan.

It also noted that basmati rice grown in Pakistan is already protected under section 24 (9) of

Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) under the World

Trade Organization (WTO).

A GI label certifies the geographical origin of a product and confirms adherence to some

production standards. It also prevents producers who aren't covered by the tag from using the

same thereby providing a legal protection to the cultivation and use of the specific product.

India's petition to grant a legal protection to basmati rice is being delayed since 2009, when the

APEDA applied for the GI protection for the first time.

Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little Changed, Despite Rallying Grains

Mar 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently seen 1.5 cents per cwt (about $0.33 per

ton) lower at $10.975 per cwt (about $242 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading higher: soybeans are currently seen about 0.8% higher, wheat is

listed about 3% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher.U.S. stocks rebounded on

Monday, encouraged by talks of stimulus in Asia, as investors eyed the week's economic data.

European stocks climbed amid encouraging euro zone economic reports. China's benchmark

Shanghai Composite index hit a fresh seven-year high as markets interpreted weekend comments

from Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People Bank's of China, as indication of further stimulus.


9

Zhou warned on Sunday that the world's second-largest economy needs to be vigilant for signs of

deflation.

The Dow Jones industrial average leaped more than 250 points in the minutes following the

open. Personal income in February was mostly in-line with consensus, posting a gain of 0.4%,

above expectations of 0.3%. Consumer spending rose 0.1%. Pending homes sales were up

3.1%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 226 points, or 1.30%, at 17,942. The S&P

500 traded up 19 points, or 0.94%, at 2,080, as energy led gains across all sectors. The Nasdaq

traded up 44 points, or 0.90%, at 4,935. Gold is currently trading about 1.2% lower, crude oil is

seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6% higher at

9:00am Chicago time.

Thai Rice Panel Allots $18 Million to Subsidize Interest Costs of Millers

Mar 30, 2015

The Rice Policy Committee in Thailand has approved a budget of about 582 million baht (around

$18 million) to subsidize interest costs of millers, Bloomberg quoted the Permanent Secretary for

Commerce as saying.The military government is encouraging millers to store rice during the

harvest season in order to curb price falls due to increased supplies by providing low interest


10

loans.The government allotted around 315 million baht (around $9.7 million) in the last cropping

season in September last year to store 2 million tons of rice for six months.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Little Trading ahead of USDA Projected Acres

Mar 30, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly firmer today however most buyers and sellers were on the

sidelines today waiting to see the results of the USDA projected acreage report due out tomorrow

morning.Analysts note that overwhelming consensus in the industry is that the USDA will show

a decrease in next years acreage however guesses range from a 2% reduction to as much as

10%.

Thailand Develops Pest and Cold Resistant Rice Variety

Mar 30, 2015

Thailand's Pathum Thani Rice Research Center has developed a new rice variety - called Thani

200 or Kor. Khor.57 - that can withstand colder climates as well as resistant to pests, according


11

to local sources.The Director of the Rice Center, a unit of the Rice Department, noted that the

new rice variety is a hybrid of the popular Suphanburi 1 and IR 64 strains. He added that the

researchers of the Rice Center have taken more than a decade to develop this variety.He also

noted that the new hybrid variety is resistant to brown planthopper and is suitable for growing in

provinces with colder climatic conditions. The Director said the new variety is also suitable for

making by-products such as rice flour. He noted that the Department is planning to produce the

new variety as rice seed before distributing it to farmers.

According to the Director, the Rice Department currently faces a shortage of rice seeds by about

500,000 tons annually and fills the demand from private companies. He noted that the

introduction of the new variety also may not reduce the problem of seed shortfalls. The Rice

Department currently spends about 5 baht per kilogram (around $153 per ton) for Hom Mali rice

seed, 16-17 baht per kilogram (around $491-$522 per ton) for white rice seed and 22 baht per

kilogram (around $675 per ton) for glutinous rice seed.

TREA Foresees Low Export Demand for Thai Rice to Continue in Second Quarter of 2015

Mar 30, 2015


12

The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) expects low export demand for Thai rice to

continue in the 2015 second quarter as well due to a tougher competition, according to local

sources. The TREA President told local sources last week that the association is expecting

Thailand to export around 750,000 - 800,000 tons of rice in March 2015 as many of its

traditional importers are shifting to India and Pakistan due to lower prices. He also noted that

increasing supplies from Vietnam's winter-spring crop are likely to further bring down the export

prices of Vietnamese rice consequently putting a pressure on the volume of Thai rice exports. He

added that most of the rice importers are holding on their purchase decisions in expectation of

price falls.

The Association President also noted that most of the African countries, which are traditional

buyers of Thai rice have been facing sluggish economies due to oil price declines. As most of

these nations trade in euro, depreciation of euro against dollar has been forcing them to place

orders for a short period. These developments may affect Thailands plans to export 11 million

tons of rice this year, say local sources.

Thai rice exporters have also urged the government to postpone the third rice auction to avoid a

further downward pressure on rice prices. The Thai government sold about 1.18 million tons of

rice from five auctions raising around 17.21 billion baht (around $528 million) since it seized

power in May 2014. The government received bids for around 780,000 tons of around one

million tons auctioned on March 6, 2014. It approved sale of 700,000 tons at about $367.45 per

ton raising about 8.37 billion baht ($257.22 million), Reuters quoted the Director General of the

Foreign Trade Department as saying.

The Thai government is currently holding over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is

planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice this year and around 7 million tons next year.

Thailand recently won a tender to supply 200,000 tons of rice to the Philippines and has signed a

deal to export 2 million tons of rice to China this year.

Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell below 11,600 baht (around $363) per ton compared to

around 12,300 baht (around $379) per ton last month, according to local sources. Export prices

of Thai 5% rice currently stands at around $390 per ton compared to export prices of India 5%

rice, Pakistan 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice at around $380 per ton, $355 per ton and $368 per

ton respectively.Separately, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) is likely to consider an

impeachment motion this week against the former Commerce Minister, former Deputy

Commerce Minister and former Department of International Trade Chief for alleged corruption

in rice scheme.


13

Vietnam Exports About 719,171 Tons Rice During January 1 March 26, 2015

Mar 30, 2015

Vietnam exported about 719,171 tons of rice in January 1 - March 26, 2015, down about 41%

from about 1.22 million tons of rice exported in in first three months of 2014, according to data

from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at

about $426 per ton (FOB), down about 1.6% per ton from same time last year.

During March 1-26, 2015, Vietnam exported about 294,449 tons of rice, down about 50% from

about 583,294 tons rice exported in full month of March 2014, and up about 47% from about


14

200,814 tons rice exported in full month of February 2015. Average export prices in March stand

at about $389 per ton, down about 11% per ton from a year ago, and down about 15% per ton

from a month ago.

About 1.01 Million Tons of Italy's 2014-15 Paddy Crop Sold as of March 24, 2015; Up 9% from Last Year

Mar 30, 2015


15

About 1.01 million tons, or about 71.54% of total Italian 2014-15 (September 2014 - August

2015) paddy crop has been sold out as of March 24, 2015, up about 9% from around 915,740

tons sold during the same period last year, according to data from the Ente Nazionale Risi, the

National Agency for Rice.Around 436,350 tons of Long-A varieties; 292,069 tons of Long-B

varieties; 259,594 tons of round paddies and 22,338 tons of medium varieties have been sold

since the beginning of this crop year. Loto-Ariete, with 158,859 tons and Arborio-Volano, with

65,670 tons remained the best sold varieties year to date.

During the week March 17, 2015 - March 24, 2015, a total of around 35,915 tons of paddy were

sold. The week's sales included about 14,207 tons of Long A, about 9,770 tons of Long B, about

11,557 tons of round paddy and 381 tons of medium paddy. Loto-Ariete, with 7,680 tons and

Arborio-Volano, with 2,385 tons remained the best sold varieties during the week.

A total of around 1.412 million tons of paddy are available as beginning stocks for 2014-15,

down about 4% from around 1.466 million tons available last year. Around 401,978 tons or

about 28.46% of total stocks are yet to be sold. Italian rice growers have ended ploughing rice

fields and seeding is likely to begin for the 2015 paddy crop, according to Ente Nazionale Risi,

the National Agency for Rice.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Recover Friday's Losses as Traders Prepare for Tomorrow's Planting Intentions Report

Mar 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at

$11.120 per cwt (about $245 per ton). Rough rice futures retraced losses sustained on Friday

after dipping just below Fridays low as the market charted an outside day. Overall the market

has been trapped in a sideways back-and-forth trading pattern over the last five trading sessions

as traders made last minute adjustments to their positions ahead of tomorrows planting

intentions report.

Technically todays action is seen as a positive development as prices managed to close back

above the psychologically significant $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton) level. However


16

before an extended bullish move will get underway traders would like to see a breaking and close

above overhead resistance at $11.160 per cwt (about $246 per ton) as confirmation. The other

grains also closed higher, led by a big rally in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.1% higher at

$9.6775 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.4% higher at $5.3025 per bushel, and corn finished

the day about 0.9% higher at $3.9450 per bushel.

U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, amid encouraging talk of stimulus in Asia, as investors eyed

the week's economic data. Personal income in February was mostly in-line with consensus,

posting a gain of 0.4%, above expectations of 0.3%. Consumer spending rose 0.1%. Pending

homes sales were up 3.1% in February, driven primarily by sales in the West and Midwest.

Tuesday marks the end of the first quarter, and few earnings are expected in the abbreviated

trading week.

The primary data point for the week is the key March employment report, which comes out on

Friday when markets are closed for Good Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up

280 points, or 1.58%, at 17,992. The S&P 500 traded up 25 points, or 1.26%, at 2,087, as energy

led gains across all ten sectors. The Nasdaq traded up 52 points, or 1%, at 4,943. Gold is trading

about 1.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading

about 0.7% lower at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 407 contracts traded, up

from 343 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on

Friday increased by 8 contracts to 8,952.

Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes; Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today

Mar 30, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5

per ton each to around $365 - $375 per ton and $310 - $320 per ton respectively today. Pakistan

rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken , 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by

about $15 per ton, $10 per ton and $5 per ton to around $350 - $360 per ton, $320 - $330 per ton

and $280 - $290 per ton, respectively, today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly

unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice


17

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. India

5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%

rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, down about $15 per ton from Friday.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$340 - $350, about a $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $320 - $330

per ton, down about $10 per ton from Friday.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

shown at around $385 - $395 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, up about $5 per

ton from Friday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5

per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, down

about $5 per ton from Friday.

31st march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter

Documents