33 rd model oas general assembly for universities building capacity and resilience for the most...

33rd Model OAS General Assembly for Universities

Building capacity and resilience for the most vulnerable communities to prevent and mitigate disasters in a changing climate

Basseterre, St. Kitts24-26 March 2015

Some Initial Considerations

• Hazards• Exposure, Vulnerability and Capacity• Adaptation and Resilience

Disaster

• CC Mitigation vs. CC Adaptation• The UNFCCC and the IPCC

Climate Change

• Deconstructing Disaster Risk• Addressing the root causes of disasters buried in the pre-conditions of

vulnerability

Disaster Risk Reduction at the OAS

Some Basic Concepts

Disaster (Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability and Capacity)

Natural Hazard

Vulnerability

Capacity

Disaster Risk

Disaster Risk Management: Risk Reduction and Transfer

Disaster Mitigation and Prevention

Disaster Preparedness, Relief, Response and Management

Resilience

Outlook: General Considerations

• Increasing exposure along with economic and population growth, along with inequities, and rapid urbanization

• Democratic institutions and governance for DRM• Institutional and Legal Reforms• Intra-regional Cooperation: Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral

Disasters Outlook in the Americas

Trends: The 90s and the (20)00s

More Disasters (+30%) 1991-2000: around 700 2001-2010: around 900

More than Double in economic losses 1991-2000: > 200 billion US Dollars 2001-2010: > 440 billion US Dollars

More than Double in affected people 1991-2000: around 38 million 2001-2010: around 81 million

Source: Emergency Events Database EM-DAT of the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED, Université of Catholique de Louvain in Belgium and World Health Organization Collaborative Centre.

One single event, hurricane Katrina, is responsible for 125 billion US Dollars in economic losses or 28% of total losses for 2001-2010.

One single event, the February 12th 2010 earthquake in Haiti, was responsible for almost 85% of all deaths during 2001-2010.

63.02

23.27

245.84

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

1991-2000 2001-2010(sin Haiti)

2001-2010(con Haiti)

Trends: The 90s and the (20)00s (cont…)

Huracane Katrina (125B)

Economic losses are directly related to the value of the assets.

The higher the value of the asset, the larger the economic losses.

The number of deaths is directly related to the level of development, and the population density.

The lower degree of development and the higher the population density, the larger the number of people killed.

Economic Losses (in thousands of US Dollars)

0.00

50,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

150,000,000.00

200,000,000.00

250,000,000.00

300,000,000.00

350,000,000.00

400,000,000.00

450,000,000.00

500,000,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Years

People Affected: Comparison of the last two decades

0.00

10,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

30,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

50,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

70,000,000.00

80,000,000.00

90,000,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Years2008 US Floods (11M)

2001-20101991-2000

2008 US Floods (10B)

1998 Brazil Droughts (10M)Mitch (3M) & Georges (1M)

Haiti (4M); Chile (3M); COL (2M) & MEX (1M)

Trends: The decade of 2001-2010

Economic Losses in Billions of US DollarsBy Hazards during 2001-2010

Storms354.52

Earthquakes43.64

Extreme Temperatures

1.10

Floods27.15

Droughts6.86

Fires9.47

Volcanic Eruptions0.16

Storms and floods are responsible for 72% of the total number of people affected during 2001-2010.

And almost 86% of the economic losses. Although 30% can be attributed to one single event, hurricane Katrina.

Climate Change: Seeking the Equilibrium

DefinitionsClimate Change according to the IPCC refers to any change observed over time, regardless of whether it is attributed to a natural variability or to human activity. UNFCCC refers to changes that can be attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, which alters the global composition of the atmosphere, in addition to the observed natural climate variability. The former definition is the one we will use in this paper.

Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Summery for Policy Makers

CC: Understanding the Threat

ThreatSea level rise will augment flood risk in low-lying areas and coastal zone erosionHeavy precipitation events, , which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood riskDrought-affected areas will likely increase in extentIncrease in the number and intensity of hurricanes with longer hurricane seasons

Other threats include: heat waves in mega cities, losses in tropical forest and biodiversity, increase of arid zones, bleaching of coral reefs, and depletion of water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover.

Time Scale: Change vs. Impact“The impacts frequently reflect projected changes in precipitation and other climate variables in addition to temperature, sea level and

concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide…

The magnitude and timing of impacts will vary with the amount and timing of climate change and, in some cases, the capacity to adapt.…”

Uncertainties in the Impacts: Data and Models[more than 29,000 observational data series, selected from 80,000 in 577 studies world wide –variations in quality and lack of geographic balance]

Observation Data Series, Methodologies and Measurements (NDVI, TDM, etc.)Cyclical Phenomena and Complexity of Geodynamic: ENSO, AMO & PDO, and Terrestrial tides, etc.

Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Summery for Policy Makers

Oscillations: AMO and PDO

1946-1964 1995-2006 2020-2025 % Low High

Total N. Atlantic TCs 9.74 14.42 - 14.42 19.42

Total CA/Carib. Landfalls 3.84 4.58 36.00 5.19 6.69

Mexico Landfalls 0.74 0.92 20.00 1.04 1.34CA/Yucatan Landfalls 0.68 1.17 22.00 1.14 1.47G. Antilles Landfalls 1.58 1.08 33.00 1.71 2.21L. Antilles Landfalls 1.00 1.25 26.00 1.35 1.74Bahamas Landfalls 0.74 0.83 19.00 0.99 1.27

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1920 1945 1970 1995 2020

Year

# T

rop

ica

l C

yclo

ne

s

26.5

27

27.5

28

28.5

Se

a S

urf

ace

Te

mp

. °C

1946-1964 1995-2006 2020-2025 % Low High




Fuente: Georgia Institute of Technology (J. Curry et al, 2007)

Time Series: Total North Atlantic tropical cyclones, in blue; and its correlation with changes in sea surface temperature (SST), in red, since 1920

The yellow shading indicates the warm phase of the AMO, and the white shading indicates the cool phase of the PDO –associated with greater frequency of La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The green shading shows their overlap.

1946-1964 1995-2006 2020-2025 % Low High




1946-1964 1995-2006 2020-2025 % Low High




Paleoclimate

Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)

Earliest known developments taking place in the Middle East around 10,000 BC or earlier

Sudden Changes in Air Temperature:From two-mile thick Greenland ice sheet

Sea Level Rise: Ocean & Terrestrial Tides

Source: OUR RESTLESS TIDES National Ocean Service NOAA http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/restles4.html figure: http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/images/restfig6.gif {{PD-USGov-DOC-NOAA}}

Tidal Phase and AmplitudeThe M2 tidal constituent. Amplitude is indicated by colour, and the white lines are cotidal differing by 1 hr. The curved arcs around the amphidromic points show the direction of the tides, each indicating a synchronized 6 hour period.

CC Mitigation vs. Adaptation

1987 1988 1990 1997 2007 2008 20091992

RIOEarth

Summit

COP3KYOTOKyoto

Protocol

COP13BALI

IV ReportAdaptation RM & RR

COP14POZNAN

Adaptation Fund

COP15COPENHAGEN

CV & CC

Protocol of Montreal on depletion of the Ozone O3 layer

WMO & UNEP create IPCC

First IPCC Evaluation

Report

COP16CANCUN

Green C Fund

2010

COP17DURBAN

Green C Fund

2011 2012

RIO+20

1995

Second IPCC Evaluation

Report

2001

Third IPCC Evaluation

Report

Fourth IPCC Evaluation

Report

2014

Fifth IPCC Evaluation

Report

The Inter-American System

1965Inter-American Emergency Aid Fund (FONDEM)• Res. VIII, Second

Special Inter-American Conference of the OAS

1991Inter-American Convention to Facilitate Disaster Assistance• Santiago, Chile, June

7, 1991 (AG XXI-O/91)

1999Inter-American Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction (IACNDR)• AG/Res. 1682 (XXIX-

O/99)

2003Inter-American Strategic Plan for Policy on Vulnerability Reduction, Risk Management and Disaster Response (IASP)• AG/Res.1955 (XXXIII-

O/03)

2007Inter-American Network for Disaster Mitigation (INDM)• AG/Res. 2314 (XXXVII-

O/07)

2012Inter-American Plan for Disaster Prevention and Response and the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance• AG/Res. 2750 (XLII-O/12)

The Inter-American System (cont…)

Inter-American Convention to Facilitate Disaster Assistance

Ratified by six OAS Member States:• Panama, 1995• Peru, 1996• Uruguay, 1999• Dominican Republic, 2009• Nicaragua, 2010• Colombia, 2013

Some relevant provisions:• It defines ‘requests for and offers and acceptance of assistance’;• It recognizes the National Coordinating Authority;• It defines the direction and control of assistance; and• It addresses issues of access and transit routes [with considerations for transit states],

assistance personnel –Immigration and Protection, and restricted areas and risk.

The Inter-American System (cont…)

Inter-American Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction (IACNDR)

• Inter-agency coordinating mechanism• Strategic Thinking• Sub-committees:

• PAHO: Relief and Response• GS/OAS: Disaster Mitigation and Prevention• IDB: DRM Finance

• Membership: Inter-American System, Subregional IGO, and UN System

Inter-American Plan for Disaster Prevention and Response and the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance

Global and Subregional Processes

2005

2007

2008

2014

2015

2016

MIAH I

Mexico

MIAH VII

GuatemalaBrazil … Argentina … Ecuador … Panama … Jamaica

OAS

CDEMA

CAPRADE

CEPREDENAC

ACS

UNASUR

REHUCELAC

SELA

Third Inter-American Meeting of Ministers and High Level Authorities on Sustainable Development

2014 – 2015 Calendar25

- 26

Nov

201

4 –

Was

hing

ton,

DC INDM

Hemispheric Encounter

Meeting of the IACNDR

Meeting of Specialized IGO

Regional Consultation for the WHS 2016

14-1

8 M

arch

201

5 –

Send

ai, J

apan UN World

Conference on DRR

2Q 2

015

- Gua

tem

ala MIAH VII

Final Regional Consultation for the WHS 2016

23 O

ct 2

015

– H

ondu

ras

Third Inter-American Meeting of Ministers and High Level Authorities on Sustainable Development

1Q 2

016,

Ista

nbul

, Tur

key World

Humanitarian Summit

Opportunities & Challenges

• Wealth of knowledge and experience• Integration Processes and Mechanisms: common development objectives• Increasing cooperation capacity: more facilities for knowledge exchange• Specialized IGO Agencies: more facilities for practical coordination and

cooperation

Opportunities

• Increasing exposure and increasing vulnerability• Integration Processes and Mechanisms: economic dependencies, increase of

transboundery impacts• Increasing cooperation capacity: more complex emergencies and

cooperation challenge• Specialized IGO Agencies: overlapping processes and inter-agency

cooperation challenge

Challenges

33rd Model OAS General Assembly for Universities

Building capacity and resilience for the most vulnerable communities to prevent and mitigate disasters in a changing climate

Basseterre, St. Kitts24-26 March 2015

33 rd model oas general assembly for universities building capacity and resilience for the most...

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