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3. Accroissement de la popula3on mondiale Figure 1.1 World Population Growth Source: US Census Bureau.

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Page 1: 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# · 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# PAGE 16 16 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 World Population Growth Source: US Census Bureau. slightly more

3.  Accroissement  de  la  popula3on  mondiale  

PAGE 16

16 Chapter 1

Figure 1.1 World Population GrowthSource: US Census Bureau.

slightly more than 200 million around AD 1. High birthrates were offset byhigh death rates from famine, war, and epidemics. It is estimated, for example,that the bubonic plague reduced the populations of Europe and China by one-third to one-half in the fourteenth century.1 Even by 1600, the world’s popula-tion was estimated to be only 500 million—not all that much larger than thecurrent population of the United States.2

Beginning in the mid-1600s, the world’s population started to grow morerapidly as life expectancy slowly increased with improvements in commerce,food production and security, and nutrition, with the world’s population reach-ing approximately one billion by 1800. The nineteenth century would, however,bring a surge in population growth, particularly in Europe. Coinciding with theIndustrial Revolution, the population of Europe doubled between 1800 and1900. Fueled by European immigration, North America’s population multipliedby twelve in the same period.3 The population of less developed countries grewmore slowly during this time, but they already held the bulk of the world’spopulation. Advances in medicine and sanitation increased survival and lifeexpectancies. By 1900, world population was approximately 1.7 billion, increas-ing to two billion by 1930. The mid-twentieth century saw unprecedented pop-ulation growth, with the world’s population reaching three billion by 1960 andfour billion by 1974. The fifth billion was reached just twelve years later. Theworld’s population surpassed seven billion in 2011 and is projected to reach 96billion by the year 2050.4 Up-to-date world and US population figures can befound at www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html.

Between 1960 and 1998, the world’s population doubled from three to sixbillion. Demographers often refer to the amount of time it would take for a

................. 18486$ $CH1 11-26-13 15:49:33 PS

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•  Combien  de  frères  et  de  sœurs  ont  eu  vos  grands-­‐parents?  

•  Combien  de  frères  et  de  sœurs  ont  eu  vos  parents?  

•  Combien  de  frères  et  de  sœurs  avez-­‐vous?  •  Combien  d’enfants  voudriez-­‐vous  avoir?  •  ….  

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Laos  

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Quelques  défini3ons  

•  Taux  d’accroissement  naturel  •  Indice  de  fécondité  •  Taux  de  mortalité  •  Espérance  de  vie  

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Taux  d’accroissement  naturel  

•  %  d’accroissement  d’une  pop.  en  un  an  –  Taux  de  natalité  –  taux  de  mortalité  

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RUBENSTEIN,  J.  (2011).  The  cultural  Landscape  :  in  introduc3on  to  human  geography.  Person  Educa3on,  Inc.  P.54  

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Taux  de  croissance  de  la  pop.  mondiale  

h7p://www.census.gov/popula3on/interna3onal/data/idb/images/worldgr.png  h7p://www.census.gov/popula3on/interna3onal/data/idb/images/worldgr.png  

h7p://www.census.gov/popula3on/interna3onal/data/idb/images/worldgr.png  

h[p://www.census.gov/popula3on/interna3onal/data/idb/images/worldgr.png  

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Indice  de  fécondité  

•  Nbre  moyen  d’enfants  qu’une  femme  en  âge  de  procréer  (15-­‐49)  a  dans  sa  vie  

•  Min.  2.1  enfants/femme  pour  assurer  le  renouvellement  de  la  pop.  

Hans  Rosling  (13’)  

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L’indice  de  fécondité  diminue  si:  

1.  Les  enfants  survivent  

2.  Les  enfants  ne  doivent  plus  servir  de  main-­‐d’œuvre.    3.  Les  femmes  ont  accès  à  l’éduca3on  et  au  travail    4.  Il  y  a  un  planning  familial  accessible  

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Etude  de  cas:  La  Chine  et  la  poli3que  de  l’enfant  unique  

•  h[p://www.wideo.fr/video/iLyROoafIH2K.html    22’  

•  Deux  poli3ques  majeures  de  contrôle  des  naissances  – Mariage  tardif  (1970)  –  Poli3que  de  l’enfant  unique  (1979,  assouplie  en  2013)  •  Volonté  économique  de  Deng  Xiaoping  à  améliorer  le  niveau  de  vie  des  Chinois  

 

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Taux  de  mortalité  •  Nbre  de  personnes  décédées  pendant  une  année  pour  1000/hab.  

     Taux  de  mortalité  infan3le  

 

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RUBENSTEIN,  J.  (2011).  The  cultural  Landscape  :  in  introduc3on  to  human  geography.  Person  Educa3on,  Inc.  P.55  

Page 11: 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# · 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# PAGE 16 16 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 World Population Growth Source: US Census Bureau. slightly more

Espérance  de  vie  •  L’âge  moyen  qu’un  nouveau-­‐né  peut  espérer  vivre  en  

fonc3on  de  son  année  de  naissance  

Rank Territory Value191 Angola 40.1

192 Central African Republic 39.8

193 Rwanda 38.9

194 Mozambique 38.5

195 Malawi 37.8

196 Lesotho 36.3

197 Swaziland 35.7

198 Sierra Leone 34.3

199 Zimbabwe 33.9

200 Zambia 32.7

LONGEST AND SHORTEST LIFE EXPECTANCY

Technical notes

© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan)

projected life expectancy at birth in years, for children born in 2002

Rank Territory Value1 Japan 81.5

2 Monaco 81.2

3 San Marino 80.6

4 Andorra 80.3

5 Sweden 80.0

6 Hong Kong (China) 79.9

7 Iceland 79.7

8 Canada 79.3

9 Spain 79.2

10 Australia 79.1

Land area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

North

Am

erica

East

ern

Euro

pe

Sout

h Am

erica

East

ern

Asia

Mid

dle

East

Asia

Pac

ific

Sout

hern

Asia

North

ern

Afric

aSout

heas

tern

Afri

ca

Cent

ral A

frica

Life Expectancy

www.worldmapper.org

Produced by the SASI group (Sheffield) and Mark Newman (Michigan)

“The adult mortality rate [in Zambia] has increased in the last decade ... an adult has lost about 11 years ofsurvival due to the AIDS problem ...”

This map shows the total years of lifeexpected to be lived by the currentpopulation, based on the lifeexpectancy of children born in 2002.Life expectancy is calculated on theassumption that prevailing trends willcontinue. It is usually different formen and women. As you get olderyour whole life expectancy increasesfrom that at your birth because youhave survived so far.

The longest life expectancy at birth isin Japan, at 81 years 6 months. Theshortest life expectancy is in Zambia,at 32 years 8 months. The worldaverage life expectancy is 67 years.

• Data are from the United Nations Development

Programme’s 2004 Human Development Report.

• See website for further information.

Territory size shows the proportion of all the yearsexpected to be lived by the current populations basedon the projected life expectancies at birth of those bornthere in 2002.

Map 255

Buleti Nsemukila, 2003

LIFE EXPECTANCY

life

expe

ctan

cy in

yea

rs, o

f tho

se b

orn

in 2

002

Rank Territory Value191 Angola 40.1

192 Central African Republic 39.8

193 Rwanda 38.9

194 Mozambique 38.5

195 Malawi 37.8

196 Lesotho 36.3

197 Swaziland 35.7

198 Sierra Leone 34.3

199 Zimbabwe 33.9

200 Zambia 32.7

LONGEST AND SHORTEST LIFE EXPECTANCY

Technical notes

© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan)

projected life expectancy at birth in years, for children born in 2002

Rank Territory Value1 Japan 81.5

2 Monaco 81.2

3 San Marino 80.6

4 Andorra 80.3

5 Sweden 80.0

6 Hong Kong (China) 79.9

7 Iceland 79.7

8 Canada 79.3

9 Spain 79.2

10 Australia 79.1

Land area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

North

Am

erica

East

ern

Euro

pe

Sout

h Am

erica

East

ern

Asia

Mid

dle

East

Asia

Pac

ific

Sout

hern

Asia

North

ern

Afric

aSout

heas

tern

Afri

ca

Cent

ral A

frica

Life Expectancy

www.worldmapper.org

Produced by the SASI group (Sheffield) and Mark Newman (Michigan)

“The adult mortality rate [in Zambia] has increased in the last decade ... an adult has lost about 11 years ofsurvival due to the AIDS problem ...”

This map shows the total years of lifeexpected to be lived by the currentpopulation, based on the lifeexpectancy of children born in 2002.Life expectancy is calculated on theassumption that prevailing trends willcontinue. It is usually different formen and women. As you get olderyour whole life expectancy increasesfrom that at your birth because youhave survived so far.

The longest life expectancy at birth isin Japan, at 81 years 6 months. Theshortest life expectancy is in Zambia,at 32 years 8 months. The worldaverage life expectancy is 67 years.

• Data are from the United Nations Development

Programme’s 2004 Human Development Report.

• See website for further information.

Territory size shows the proportion of all the yearsexpected to be lived by the current populations basedon the projected life expectancies at birth of those bornthere in 2002.

Map 255

Buleti Nsemukila, 2003

LIFE EXPECTANCY

life

expe

ctan

cy in

yea

rs, o

f tho

se b

orn

in 2

002

h[p://www.worldmapper.org/  

Page 12: 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# · 3.#Accroissementde#lapopulaon# mondiale# PAGE 16 16 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 World Population Growth Source: US Census Bureau. slightly more

Conclusion  des  différences  régionales  •  Le  monde  développé  

–  USA,    Canada,  Europe  de  l’Ouest,  Japon,  Australie  –  Croissance  de  pop.  faible  à  déclin  –  Pays  de  l’Est:  taux  de  croissance  néga3f  

•  Le  monde  en  développement  –  La  majeur  par3e  de  la  pop.  mondiale  (Chine,  Inde,  Asie)  –  Grandes  différences  entre  ces  pays  

•  Chine  :  croissance  de  0.5%  •  Inde:  croissance  de  1.5%    

•  Le  monde  peu  développé  (3ers-­‐monde)  –  48  pays  (Afrique  Subsaharienne):  vulnérabilité  économique  –  Taux  de  croissance  extrêmement  haut