3d systems corporation - acquisition model
TRANSCRIPT
Discussion Materials
3D Systems Corporation
3rd Dec 2013
Table of Content
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 6
Section 5
Section 7 Valuation: DCF Analysis
Valuation: DCF Assumptions
Valuation: Comparable Company Analysis
Investment Thesis
Earnings Drivers Analysis
Business Model
Company Profile
Section 8 Sensitivity Analysis & Recommendation
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Business Overview • 3D Systems is a US based leading provider of 3D
content-to-print solutions including 3D printers, print
materials and on-demand custom parts services for
professionals and consumers
• DDD incorporated on May 14, 1993, is a holding
company that operates through subsidiaries in the
United States, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region
• It has $5.86billion market cap and $414.97million
ttm revenue
• Its Strategies focus on:
- Build global service and expand through
acquisition and organic growth
- Develop new products through channels and
leveraging customer base and core competencies
Company Profile
3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD)
Stock Price Performance US$
Recent Highlights • January 3, 2012 the Company completed the
acquisition of Z Corporation and Vidar systems
Corporation for $2.9milliom
• April 2012 it acquired My Robot Nation and
Paramount Industries
• May 2012 the Company acquired FreshFiber BV and
Bespoke Innovations, Inc
• July 2012 it acquired Viztu Technologies
• October 2012 it acquired Tim Modelmakers B.V. and
Rapidform
• August 2013 the Company acquired TeamPlatform
cloud-based, collaborative design and project
management platform, and CRDM
Source: Company Website
Key Statistics
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
2013 2015 2017 2019
3D Printer Forecast(1)
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
2013 2015 2017 2019
Product Lifestyle Management Forecast
Source: Company Website
Notes:
1. Company management forecast
2. Breakdown of sales
US$ MM
US$ MM
Source: Capital IQ
Europe41%
A-Pac14%
North America
45%
By Geography(2)
Services29%
Printers34%
Print Materials
37%
By Category
Market Cap 5.86Bn
Trailing P/E 133.26
1-Yr est. P/E 43.38
EV/EBITDA 54.46
Revenue 414.97MM
Gross Profit 181.20MM
Net Income 39.65MM
D/B 3.8
LFCF 27.44MM
Source: Company Website
(As of 22nd Oct 2013, US$)
3
Major Products Performances
• Printers and Systems: Sales have increased by 40%
over the last 10 years; management believes annual
shipments increase from 5,000 printers sold in 2009
to 85,000 in 2015
• 3D Print Materials: Historically, the company’s
most profitable revenue segment, with a 62% gross
margin; management believes this will be the
strongest revenue driver as their most recent printers
require a specifically designed material
• Services: DDD has an extensive assortment of
printers and on-demand 3D custom parts service
allowing clients to purchase upgrade kits and to take
advantage of their new enhanced system capabilities
Business Model
Business Model
Business Strategies
• Organic Business
- Increasing Global R&D spend (75%+ in 2012)
fueling demand for 3D printers
- Product evolution drives increase in component
count and complexity; Democratization expands
opportunity into education, consumer and DIY
- Sustainability attributes –reduced waste, cost and
carbon footprint- enhance attractiveness
• Acquisition Synergies
- DDD has acquired 12 competitors to expand
their portfolio in the last two years
- They enhanced the performance of personalized
manufactured items and will drive the
technology forward
Democratize creativity by
providing integrated 3D
content-to-print solutions
that cover the entire
ideation-to-production
process for the benefit of
professionals and
consumers alike
Expand on
demand-
parts
services
globally
Accelerate
3D
printer
penetration
Grow
healthcare
solutions
Build
significant
consumer
& retail
capabilities
Focused Growth Initiatives
• Customers
- DDD has a well diverse
customer base throughout
different industries, ranging
from Ford, Caterpillar and
Boeing
- Customers have complete
freedom to print complex 3D
plastic or metal parts directly
from 3D digital data without
tooling or complex setups
- 3D Systems provides a
compelling business model
that is cost effective and can
change their customers’
traditional design-to-
manufacturing processes
• Management Team
Strong technical experiences
required in extremely volatile
business environment
Charles W. Hull (since 1997)
Executive Vice President and
Chief Technology Officer; solely
responsible for over 60 U.S
patents in prototyping
Abe Reichental (since 2003)
President and CEO; over 30
years of various technical,
marketing, operating positions
experience and leadership
Source: Analyst Presentation
4
41
31
55
67
127
62
5058
71
103
35 32
47
93
124
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Printers and other products Materials Services
139
113
160
230
354
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fundamental Analysis
Earnings Drivers Analysis
• Sales increased in 2012 by 54%
due to increased volume across
all sales categories primarily
from increased demand from
printers and on-demand custom
parts services, both organic and
from acquisitions; and 5 years’
CAGR is 20.5%
• The increase in sales (89.6%)
from printers and other
products for 2012 compared to
2011 was primarily the result of
increased sales volume, driven
by increased demand for
personal/professional printers
and acquired sales from the Z
Corp and Vidar acquisitions
completed in 1Q2012
• All geographic regions
experienced higher levels of
revenue in 2012 compared to
2011 due to continued global
R&D spending leading to higher
levels of printer sales and print
materials sales
• The banking crisis combined
with economic weakness led to
negative impact of foreign
currency translation for the
European region, while a
strengthening Japanese Yen for
most of 2012 resulted in a
favorable foreign currency
translation for the Asia-Pacific
region Source: 2012 10-K
5
2
9
28
46
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
55 49
72
118
196
3224 27
35 4030 25
3848
61
2215
2229
57
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
USA Germany Other Europe Asia Pacific
Total Sales
Geographical Sales Segmental Sales
Total EBITDA US$ MM
US$ MM US$ MM
US$ MM
• Supplier Power – Moderate
In the additive manufacturing
industry there are multiple
suppliers that produce their raw
materials. This makes the
suppliers compete for customer
sales which decreases the price
• Barriers to Entry – Moderate
and increasing
Barriers in 3D printers industry
is high as the firm will need a lot
of capital and a strong R&D
team to produce the technology
advanced printers the price
• Buyer Power – Moderate and
increasing
As printing technologies are
able to mature, increased
competition will increase buyer’s
leverage
• Threat of Substitutes –
Moderate and decreasing
Additive manufacturing industry
is not an essential function in
company’s business model as
they still use mass
manufacturing machines
• Degree of Rivalry – High
As the product becomes easier
to duplicate and manufacture
and as equipment costs go
down, the number of
competitors will increase
6
Fundamental Analysis
Investment Thesis Arguments
Market Outlook
S.W.O.T.
Analysis
Catalysts
• The demand for cheaper and simpler 3D printers is very clear as a company would rather
print a spare part at home verses airfreight an urgently needed spare part from abroad
• The demand for more elaborate machines is increasing - using the 3D printing customers
will be able to picture the ending products they want to but in different areas such as jewelries
• Strengths
- Recurring sales buckets from print materials and services revenue segments
- Proven research and development departments and able to produce new products to
improve their additive manufacturing
- DDD help cut customers cost by reducing their production lines while increasing their
throughput rate by enabling them to produce single items quickly and cheap rather than
exporting abroad for the rare part
• Weaknesses
- High capital expenditure for machines
- Objects will become a lot easier to copy, distribute and pirate in the future thus making it
easier to breach intellectual-property laws
• Opportunities
- Increasing demand from growth markets of China and India and their ability to speed up
the design process will have a big impact on the 3D printing industry
- Once the printers cost decrease and their speed increases there will be a surge in demand
and manufacturers will look to adapt the technology since 3D printers allow for the
creation of parts in shapes that conventional technique cannot achieve
• Threats
- The major threat is expanding too fast carrying much debt and potentially being unstable
for the business
- Whether could afford the intervention of start-up companies with new technologies
- The established technique of mass-manufacturing will not go away and that they cannot
interrelate with 3D printers
- If technology does not improve revenue considerably then the cost of it not descend the
profit to an unmatched level
• Upside: There is a global market for additive manufacturing which worth $1.2 billion in 2008
and predications have it doubling in size by 2015, providing potential to transform the mass
manufacturing
• Downside: DDD will face exchange rate risk as half of their sales are abroad and their input
cost can be greatly affected by probable rise of the commodity cost of hard metals and plastics
Implied Valuation From Comparables
Mean Implied Implied Implied Median Implied Implied Implied
Multiple Value EV Equity Value Share Price Multiple Value EV Equity Value Share Price
P/E LTM 85.2x 6,086 68.19$ P/E LTM 92.4x 6,597 73.92$
P/E 2013E 50.5x 5,404 60.55$ P/E 2013E 43.8x 4,691 52.56$
P/E 2014E 34.4x 4,301 48.19$ P/E 2014E 24.0x 2,993 33.53$
EV/EBITDA LTM 30.6x 4,593 4,660 52.21$ EV/EBITDA LTM 21.9x 3,285 3,352 37.56$
EV/EBITDA 2013E 21.3x 4,041 4,108 46.02$ EV/EBITDA 2013E 13.6x 2,584 2,651 29.70$
EV/EBITDA 2014E 18.7x 4,498 4,565 51.14$ EV/EBITDA 2014E 12.4x 2,976 3,043 34.10$
Average Implied Share Price 54.38$ Average Implied Share Price 43.56$
Valuation
Comparable Company Analysis (As of 29th Nov 2013)
Source: Bloomberg
US Listed Large Cap Computer Peripherals Manufacturers
Price/ Enterprise Value/
Share % 52-wk. Equity Enterprise LTM 2013E 2014E LTM 2013E 2014E Div.
Company Price High Value Value EPS EPS EPS EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA PEG(5-Yr) Yield
Electronics for Imagin(EFI) 35.15$ 88.3% 16,533$ 1,291$ 18.0x 22.9x 20.5x 10.3x 9.6x 9.6x 1.7x -
Dassault Systems(DASTY) 117.28$ 86.7% 14,775$ 12,867$ 31.7x 24.9x 22.9x 13.7x 12.4x 12.4x 2.3x 0.98%
Stratasys(SSYS) 114.38$ 95.1% 5,456$ 5,352$ - 62.8x 48.4x 39.7x 29.5x 29.5x 6.2x -
Universal Display(OLED) 30.36$ 79.7% 1,403$ 1,155$ 131.6x 60.1x 25.0x 27.0x 13.6x 13.6x 2.7x 0.61%
Voxeljet AG(VJET) 40.61$ 95.6% 663$ 1$ - - - - - - - -
Immersion(IMMR) 12.92$ 77.2% 370$ 305$ 92.4x 27.5x 15.2x 21.9x 12.4x 12.4x 3.8x -
Mercury Systems(MRCY) 9.30$ 88.8% 309$ 269$ - - - 17.2x 17.2x 8.5x (7.1x) -
3D Systems(DDD) 75.52$ 89.0% 7,725$ 7,210$ 116.3x 77.0x 60.6x 64.2x 42.5x 36.0x 1.8x -
Average 85.2x 50.5x 34.4x 30.6x 21.3x 18.7x 1.6x 0.80%
Median 92.4x 43.8x 24.0x 21.9x 13.6x 12.4x 2.7x 0.80%
($ in millions, except per share data)
I/S Hist. Proj. B/S Hist. Proj.
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E
Sales (Growth) Assets
Printers and other products 21.9% 90.2% 47.3% AR Days 82 81 82 82
Print Materials 20.9% 46.1% 32.9% Inventory Days 101 76 89 89
Services 99.2% 32.8% 62.6% Other C.Assets. % Sales 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
COGS (Margin) Liabilities
Printers and other products 61.0% 62.5% 57.2% 60.2% AP Days 113 78 68 86
Print Materials 38.9% 35.2% 31.8% 35.3% Accr. Exp % Sales 4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 3.4%
Services 63.9% 58.9% 54.3% 59.0% Other C.Liabilities. % Sales 15.1% 10.7% 9.7% 11.8%
SG&A % Sales 26.5% 26.0% 27.5% 26.7% ST Debt 224 163 174 174
R&D % Sales 6.7% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5% LT Debt(1) 8,055 138,716 87,974 709,767
Valuation
DCF Assumptions
Notes:
1. Injected the capital debt for purchasing in 2013
2. Levered Free Cash Flow (Deducted the net interest expenses)
($ in 000’, except per share data)
Free Cash Flows Projected Fiscal Years Ending,
Projections 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P
Net Income 11,722 28,692 55,018 95,237 156,222 248,528 388,457 601,346 926,775 1,426,871
+ Depreciation 42,693 48,922 54,869 60,956 66,973 73,026 79,061 85,104 91,143 97,185
+ Amortization 67,379 78,236 88,073 98,421 108,513 118,733 128,889 139,077 149,249 159,429
- ∆ OWC 6,270 (21,998) (33,501) (51,295) (78,939) (122,062) (189,587) (295,687) (462,933) (727,330)
- Capex (49,009) (50,213) (50,814) (51,115) (51,266) (51,341) (51,378) (51,397) (51,407) (51,411)
- Intangibles Invest. (136,502) (140,436) (142,403) (143,387) (143,878) (144,124) (144,247) (144,309) (144,339) (144,355)
LFCF(2) (57,449) (56,797) (28,759) 8,818 57,626 122,760 211,195 334,134 508,489 760,389
DCF Valuation – XNPV Method
( + ) TV (7.0x terminal multiple) 17,309,979
Discount Factors 0.899 0.809 0.728 0.654 0.588 0.529 0.476 0.428 0.385 0.346
Total cash flow – Multiple method (53,377) (47,570) (22,468) 4,304 32,525 63,663 99,298 141,889 194,702 6,257,134
Enterprise Value – EBITDA multiple method 6,670,099
( + ) TV (5.0% terminal growth) 12,855,120
Discount Factors 0.899 0.809 0.728 0.654 0.588 0.529 0.476 0.428 0.385 0.346
Total cash flow – Perpetuity method (53,377) (47,570) (22,468) 4,304 32,525 63,663 99,298 141,889 194,702 4,714,319
Enterprise Value – Perpetuity growth method 5,127,283
• Capital Structure
- Assumed the buyer uses
10% debt and 90% equity to
fund the transaction
- Assumed 30% control
premium to be added on the
purchase price
- Took the 11.2% discounting
rate and 7.0x terminal value
as our recommended
scenario
• WACC(1)
- Adjusted higher the risk
premium of computer
peripherals sector since
DDD has the services
segment which has higher
market risk premium
- Beta is based levered
industry average
- Risk free rate is based on
10-year T-Bill rate
- Interest rate of LT debt is
based on LIBOR(2) rate
added by the fixed rate
5.57% which is the senior
debt cost
• Terminal Value
- Multiple: 7.0x EV/EBITDA as
benchmark
- Perpetuity: 5.0% growth rate
as benchmark
9
Valuation
DCF Analysis
Capital Structure of Purchasing WACC Calculation
% Capitalization Amounts Rm-Rf 7.50% Risk Free Rate2.75%
Debt 10% 867,113 β 1.44 →KE 13.55%
Equity 90% 7,804,016 Avg. LD Debt Interest Rate 7.30% →KD 7.30%
Enterprise Value 6,670,099 D/V 15.5% E/V 84.5%
Control Premium 30% 2,001,030 Tax Rate 35.00%
Total Purchase Price 100% 8,671,129 →WACC 12.19%
Accretive/Dilutive Projected Fiscal Years Ending,
Analysis 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P
Net Income 9,822 26,680 52,893 92,997 153,864 246,050 385,857 598,621 923,924 1,423,891
Injected Debt 867,113 857,291 830,611 777,717 684,720 530,857 284,807 (101,050) (699,672) (1,623,595)
Accretion/Dilution - - - - - - + + + +
($ in 000’, except per share data)
Notes:
1. Weighted Average Cost of Capital
2. LIBOR is 0.60% is 2013 and assumed to be increased by 0.25% each year
Enterprise Value Equity Value Value Per Share
Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple
WACC 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x
11.20% 5,845 6,670 7,495 5,913 6,738 7,563 $66.25 $75.50 $84.74
12.20% 5,365 6,120 6,876 5,432 6,188 6,944 $60.87 $69.33 $77.80
13.20% 4,927 5,620 6,312 4,995 5,688 6,380 $55.97 $63.73 $71.49
Enterprise Value Equity Value Value Per Share
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate
WACC 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5%
11.20% 3,796 5,158 8,368 3,864 5,226 8,436 $43.30 $58.56 $94.52
12.20% 3,180 4,150 6,155 3,248 4,218 6,223 $36.39 $47.26 $69.73
13.20% 2,693 3,406 4,745 2,761 3,474 4,813 $30.94 $38.92 $53.93
(57) (57) (29) 9 58
123
211
334
508
760
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
• Free Cash Flow
Initially being negative due to
existing debt and funding debt,
but the efficiency improvement
and payout of Capex on their
business, we project that it will
increase to 760 million with
CAGR of +88.5% in 2022
• Equity(1)
High CAGR of 24.5% and 9.0x
equity fold in 10 years
• Sensitivity Analysis
- We set benchmark as 7.0x
EBITDA multiple and 5.0%
perpetuity growth rate in two
methods
- Net debt of -67.9 million is
based on 2013 pro forma
estimation
- Total shares outstanding at
the end of 2012 is 89.25
million shares
• Recommendation of Purchase
We strongly recommend $75.50
per share as the purchase price
to acquire DDD since we
consider the growth after 10
years will be moderate as 7.0x
2022 EBITDA and cost of debt
will be slightly lower than the
benchmark as the efficient
business will bear less debt
10
Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis & Recommendation
490 517 570 663 817
1,063
1,448
2,047
2,971
4,395
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Free Cash Flows Equity
9.0x US$ MM US$ MM
Note:
1. The company don’t have preferred stock or minority interest
($ in millions, except per share data)