3q2012results baoshaniron & steel co.,ltd.the following presentation distributed herewith...
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3Q2012 Results
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.
October 2012
The following presentation distributed herewith includes forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities, events
or developments that Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.(Baosteel) expects or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements.
Baosteel’s actual results or developments may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors and uncertainties, including but not limited to price fluctuations, actual demand, exchange rate fluctuations, competition and other risks and factors beyond our control.
Disclaimer
I. Operation Results
II. Industry Dynamics
III.Company Outlook
� Production and Sales
7.0%
7.1%
7.1%
5.0%
QoQunit::::million tons 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 YoY
Crude steel output 6.79 5.42 5.69 -16.2%
Sales of finished products 6.61 5.49 5.88 -11.0%
including::::domestic 5.86 4.92 5.27 -10.1%
export 0.75 0.57 0.61 -18.7%
� Sales Breakdown of Finished Products in Q3
Note:BNA included,unit:million tons
2%0.10Stainless steel
Sales %
HRC 1.77 30%
Plate 0.45 8%
CRC 2.84 47%
Tube 0.39 7%
Others 0.44 7%
Total 5.99 100%
↓↓↓↓6.0 ppts-6.4%-15.2%1.9-20.0%1.80.44Others
↑↑↑↑0.01 ppts1.8%-70.1%1.4-69.6%1.40.10Stainless steel
unit::::million tons
billion YuanSales Revenue YoY Cost YoY
Gross
marginYoY
CRC 2.33 12.9 -11.3% 11.3 -17.4% 12.0% ↑↑↑↑6.5 ppts
HRC 2.16 8.3 -14.1% 7.8 -14.4% 6.0% ↑↑↑↑0.3 ppts
Plate 0.45 2.1 -38.3% 2.5 -32.0% -20.4% ↓↓↓↓11.1 ppts
Tube 0.39 2.7 -7.4% 2.5 -7.6% 6.4% ↑↑↑↑0.2 ppts
Total 5.88 29.1 -27.4% 27.4 -29.8% 5.9% ↑↑↑↑3.2 ppts
� Gross Profit in Q3--Products
� Income Statement Summary
↓↓↓↓14.1ppts
↓↓↓↓0.09ppts
↓↓↓↓1.71ppts
-4.4%
-5.3%
QoQunit::::billion Yuan 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 YoY
Revenue 56.18 50.68 47.99 -14.6%
Cost 54.95 49.36 47.21 -14.1%
Gross profit 3.04 4.13 3.09
Gross margin%%%% 5.41 8.14 6.43 ↑↑↑↑1.02ppts
Operating profit 1.32 1.54 1.42
Operating margin%%%% 2.35 3.05 2.96 ↑↑↑↑0.61ppts
Net profit 1.24 8.39 1.18
Net profit margin%%%% 2.21 16.55 2.46 ↑↑↑↑0.25ppts
↑↑↑↑1.09 ppts
↓↓↓↓0.46 ppts
17.7%
0.6%
-85.4%
QoQunit::::Yuan 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 YoY
EPS 0.07 0.48 0.07 0.0%
BVPS 6.04 6.43 6.47 7.1%
Net CFO per share 0.02 0.17 0.20 900.0%
Gross margin%
(accumulated)8.16 7.82 7.36 ↓↓↓↓0.8 ppts
ROE (weighted)%
(accumulated)6.02 8.73 9.82 ↑↑↑↑3.8 ppts
� Financial Highlights
Financial index unit 2011201120112011----12121212----31313131 2012201220122012----9999----30303030 Change
Solvency
Total debts/
total assets%%%% 50.90 47.15 ↓↓↓↓3.75 ppts
Current ratio 0.80 0.99 23.8%
Quick ratio 0.42 0.62 47.6%
Financial index unitJan-
Sep,2011
Jan-
Sep,2012Change
Liquidity
Days of receivables day 6.8 18.1 166.2%
Days of inventories day 74.8 73.0 -2.4%
Cash conversion
cycleday 50.2 53.6 6.8%
� Solvency and Liquidity
I. Operation Results
II. Industry Dynamics
III.Company Outlook
� Macro Economy
• GDP up 7.4% YoY in Q3, lowest level in
the past 14 quarters, economy growth
continued to decrease.
• GDP up 7.7% YoY in Q1 to Q3, domestic
economy tends to be stable.
• CPI up 1.9% YoY in Sep as expected.
• CPI growth rate below 2%, inflation
pressure released.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
GDP growth, YoY(%)
68101214
1Q20
073Q
2007
1Q20
083Q
2008
1Q20
093Q
2009
1Q20
103Q
2010
1Q20
113Q
2011
1Q20
123Q
2012
CPI growth, YoY(%)
6.1
5.5
4.2 4.14.5
3.23.6
3.43.0
2.21.8
2.0 1.9
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Sep-
2011
Oct Nov Dec Jan-
2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Supply(Crude Steel)
• Crude steel output was 0.54 billion tons in Jan-Sep.
• Output up 1.7% YoY in Jan-Sep, growth rate slowed down.
Data source: Wind
0.18
0.22
0.28
0.35
0.42
0.49 0.50
0.57
0.63
0.68
0.54
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-
Sep,2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Output(billion tons) YoY,Ytd,%
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Import & Export
• Steel import 10.5 million tons, down 12% YoY and export 40.9 million tons,
up 10% YoY in Jan-Sep.
• Export and net export rebounded in Sep.
Data source: Wind
Monthly net export
1.0
0.50.4
-0.2-0.3-0.20.1
0.50.6
1.2
1.6
1.9
1.61.4
1.7
2.8
3.6
4.2
3.2
1.51.71.7
1.51.51.51.5
3.43.43.5
3.13.2
2.82.92.6
3.0
2.52.8
2.2
3.83.5
3.94.1
3.13.0
4.0
-1-1-1-1000011112222333344445555
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
million tons ..
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Infrastructure)
• FAI 25.7 trillion Yuan in Jan-Sep, up 20.5% YoY.• 344 billion Yuan invested in railway in Jan-Sep, down 13% YoY.• 72.7 billion Yuan invested in Sep, up 92.7% YoY and 52.7% MoM.
Data source: Wind
FAIFAIFAIFAI
14.4
18.3
29.1 28.8
27.2
24.3
26.6
30.4
24.523.8
20.5
25.8
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan to
Sep,2012
billion yuan
10
15
20
25
30
35
Year YoY(%)
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Real Estate)
• Real estate investment growth was stable in Q3, sales volumn rose slightly.• In Jan-Sep, Social housing new start was 7.2 million units, 97% of annual plan with 4.8 million units finished (annual plan 5 million), and 960 billion Yuan invested.
Data source: Wind
Investment (billion Yuan, left)
Growth Ytd, YoY (%, right)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 May-12 Sep-12
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 May-12 Sep-12
New start area (billion square meters)
Sales area (billion square meters)
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Automobile)
• Output and sales were 14.12 million and 14.09 million units, up 4.98% and
3.37% YoY respectively in Jan-Sep.
• New stimulus policies in progress(sales to the countryside, energy-saving
subsidy etc.).
Data source: Wind
Output
35.20
14.1112.56
27.32
22.02
5.21
48.30
32.44
0.84
4.98
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2006 2009 Jan-Sep,2012
million
0
10
20
30
40
50
output YoY%
Sales
34.21
15.5013.54
25.1321.84
6.70
46.15
32.37
2.45 3.37
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2006 2009 Jan-Sep,2012
million
0
10
20
30
40
50
sales YoY%
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Home Appliance)
• Home appliance outperformed in Q3 than H1.
• Sales to the countryside 573 million units and sales volumn was 154 billion
Yuan in Jan-Sep, up 12.1% and 21.6% YoY respectively.
Data source: Wind
Home Appliance Output
15.1%
25.4%
7.7%
13.7%
8.0%
-4.6% 0.3%1.4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
TV washing
machine
refrigerator air-conditioner
Sep,YoY Jan-Sep,YoY
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Machinery)
• Industry growth was lowing down.
• Benefit from credit loosening and new projects, industry growth tends to be
stable.
Data source: CMIF
Machinery industry growth,YoY
11.9%12.0%11.9%12.2%11.9%12.1%13.3%11.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jan-Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012
� Demand and Supply Analysis--Demand(Ship Building)
• Completion, new order and carrying order were :41.6, 15.4 and 120
million tonnages, down 18%, 47% and 28% YoY respectively in
Jan-Sep.
• Shipping market depressed, profitability in downtrend.
Data source: wind
Ship-building completion
5.494.80
5.926.48 6.75
10.33
5.42
4.425.21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
In million tonnage .
2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012
� Steel Inventory
• Destocking continued, but was slowing down.
• Social inventory was 12.3 million tons by 2 Nov, lowest level since 2010.
Unit:
million tons
10-28-
2011
8-31-
2012
9-28-
2012
11-2-
2012 MoM YoY
Rebar 5.66 5.91 4.99 4.93 -1.2% -12.9%
Wire 1.12 1.39 1.06 1.15 8.5% 2.7%
HRC 4.57 3.90 3.52 3.26 -7.4% -28.7%
CRC 1.53 1.66 1.62 1.62 0.0% 5.9%
Plate 1.46 1.48 1.35 1.38 2.2% -5.5%
Long product 6.78 7.30 6.05 6.08 0.5% -10.3%
Flat product 7.56 7.03 6.49 6.26 -3.5% -17.2%
Total 14.34 14.33 12.54 12.34 -1.6% -13.9%
Data source: Mysteel
� Iron Ore Inventory
• Port inventory decreased from Sep, close to 90 million tons recently.
• India iron ore inventory continued to decrease sharply.• Iron ore inventory in downward trend, 88.5 million tons in 25 main ports by 2 Nov.
Data source: Mysteel
Iron ore port inventory
5
8
11
14
17
20
23
26
29
32
35
38
41
44
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
million tons
Australian Brazil India
� Raw Material Cost
• Imported Iron ore 550 million tons in Jan-Sep, up 8.4% YoY and average price was $135/t, down 18.8%
YoY.
• Platts dropped to $88.5/t on 6 Sep, lowest level in the past 3 years, after that rose to $120/t by the end of
Oct.
• Coke price picked up with the rebound of steel market, but slowed down recently.
62626262%%%%粉矿粉矿粉矿粉矿PlattsPlattsPlattsPlatts指数价格走势指数价格走势指数价格走势指数价格走势((((CFRCFRCFRCFR,,,,美元美元美元美元////干吨干吨干吨干吨))))
2010-7-16, 116
2010-4-20, 186
2011-10-28, 116.75
2011-9-7, 183
2011-2-16,,,,193
2011-3-15, 165
133.5
10-9, 120.25
9-6, 88.5
146.9
169.5
131.1
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1
月
2
月
3
月
4
月
5
月
6
月7
月8
月9
月1
0
月1
1
月1
2
月2010年2011年2012年2010年指数年均价2011年指数年均价2012年指数年均价
Data source: Mysteel
Platts(62%Fe)
2010
2011
2010 average
2011 average
2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
焦炭价格焦炭价格焦炭价格焦炭价格1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12废钢价格废钢价格废钢价格废钢价格2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
Coke price
Scrap price
� Steel Price
Unit:
Yuan/ton28 Oct,2011 28 Sep,2012 2 Nov,2012 MoM YoY
HRC 4380 3700 3930 6.2% -10.3%
CRC 5250 4530 4600 1.5% -12.4%
Plate 4450 3600 3660 1.7% -17.8%
Wire 4320 3570 3500 -2.0% -19.0%
Rebar 4420 3780 3850 1.9% -12.9%
Data source: Mysteel
• According to CISA, 36 of 80 median-large size steel makers lost money in
Jan-Sep. 42 steel makers lost money in Sep.
• Steel price picked up in the past 2 months and became stable by the end
of Oct. The rebound was limited after entering the weak season in winter.
� Market Trend
Data source: Mysteel
2500
2900
3300
3700
4100
4500
4900
5300
5700
6100
6500
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12热轧3.0冷轧1.0螺纹20Ⅲ级 300040005000600070008000900010000
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12冷轧1.0镀锌1.0彩涂0.476硅钢600HR3.0
CR1.0Rebar20III
CR1.0Galvanized1.0Prepainted0.476Silicon600
I. Operation Results
II. Industry Dynamics
III.Company Outlook
2012 Plan Q1-Q3 ResultCompletion
Ratio
Iron (million tons) 22.79 16.70 73.3%
Steel (million tons) 23.98 17.48 72.9%
Sales (million tons) 23.46 17.39 74.1%
Revenue (billion Yuan) 19.60 14.61 74.5%
Cost (billion Yuan) 18.00 13.51 75.1%
� Q1-Q3 Results
� Stock Buyback Update
• The company’s initial buyback was on 21 Sep.
• Buyback was 242.57 million stocks, about 1.4% of the company’s total stocks
and paid 1.12 billion Yuan by 1 Nov.
33.3%1.123.35 Trade Volumn
(billion Yuan)
33.2%0.240.73 Quantity
(billion)
%BuybackToatal
21,Sep – 1,Nov
� Purchase of Zhanjiang Steel’s Stake
• Investment in Zhanjiang project was approved by the general
shareholders’ meeting on 17 Sep, 2012.
• The company decided to purchase 71.8% stake hold by Guangzhou
SASAC in Zhangjiang Steel.
• Purchasing price: 4.98 billion Yuan (6.93*71.8%).
*Zhanjiang Steel net asset value is 6.93 billion Yuan.
• Stake delivery date: 1 Nov, 2012.
� Disposal of Luojing Assets
Disposal Principle
• Considering the industry restructuring of Luojing area, production has been
shut down.
• The company decided to sell Corex assets to Baosteel Group.
• The company will sell the land and affiliated buildings etc. of Luojing area
to Baosteel Group. (pending further approval)
• Other manufacturing facilities are pending feasibility study of moving to
Zhanjiang Steel.
Corex Assets Pricing
• Book value:2.77 billion Yuan.
• Selling price:2.73 billion Yuan (impairment loss of 37 million Yuan).
• Payment: Cash.
• Delivery Date:1 Nov, 2012.
� Investment in East-West pipeline project
• Board of Directors authorized the company to invest in the east-west
pipeline project in August.
• Total length of the pipeline is over 5000 km and designed annual
transmission quantity of natural gas is 30 billion cubic meter.
• Gas source from mid-east countries. Project is estimated to be put into
operation in 2015.
• Total investment of the project is 116 billion Yuan and a joint venture is
founded with 62.5 billion Yuan, in which Baosteel will invest 8 billion Yuan,
another subsidiary of Baosteel Group (Huabao Investment) will invest 2
billion Yuan.
• Project IRR: 10%.