3q2015 economic metrics

Lee & AssociatesReal Estate Economics Metrics TrackerThird Quarter 2015

ISection One

Unemployment and Jobs Data

National

• 142,371,000: Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Sep. 2015 (SA)-(Preliminary)• 65,217: 10-Year Average number of jobs added per month• 142,000: Number of jobs added September 2015 (Preliminary)• 5.1%: September 2015 Unemployment Rate (SA)• 7.0%: 10-Year Unemployment Rate Average

Bureau of Labor Statistics

National unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% September 2015. Unemployment dropped 20 basis points quarter-to-quarter. The lowest it's been since April 2008 at 5%. We're gradually edging downwards to pre-recession rates which are below 5%. Employers added 142,000 jobs in September (preliminary figure). Collectively, Q3 added 501,000 jobs.

7.0%

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National Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (SA) 10-Year Avg.

(1,000,000)

(800,000)

(600,000)

(400,000)

(200,000)

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600,000

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National Nonfarm Jobs Added (October 2005 - September 2015)

New York City

• 4,202,400: Total Nonfarm Jobs as of September 2015 (SA)• 3,597: 20-Year Average number of jobs added monthly (SA)• 4,950: 10-Year Average number of jobs added montly (SA)• 8,000: Number of jobs gained in September 2015 (SA)• -4,400: Number of jobs gained in 3Q 2015 (SA)• 5.2%: September 2015 Unemployment Rate (SA)• 7.5%: 10-Year Unemployment Rate Average

New York Department of Labor

Q3 had a net gain of -4,400 in jobs added in NYC. September saw an addition of 8,000 jobs, but it wasn't enough due to August's bad month in losing 13,400 jobs. Unemployment in the city continues to strengthen leading to a quarter closing of a low rate of 5.2%. This is the lowest since March 2008 (5.1%).

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New York City Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (SA) 10 Year Average

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New York City Nonfarm Jobs Added

Unemployment Rate ComparisonSeasonally Adjusted

September 2015 Unemployment Rate 10-Year Unemployment Rate AverageUnited States 5.1% 7.0%New York City 5.2% 7.5%

Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

United States 10-year unemployment rate average decreased by 20 basis points since last quarter, bringing it within 10 basis points of NYC's unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 5.1%, as low as it has been since 2008. Similarly NYC's unemployment rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points since Sept. 2015 (6.7%).

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Oct

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United States vs. New York City Unemployment Rate

U.S. N.Y.C. 10-Year U.S. Avg. 10-Year N.Y.C. Avg.

Unemployment and Jobs Added Overview

Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Unemployment Peak:

2009September

201520-YearAverage

10-YearAverage

United States 5.0% 9.5% 10.0% 5.1% 6.0% 7.0%New York State 4.9% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 6.2% 6.7%New York City 5.2% 9.6% 10.2% 5.2% 7.5% 7.5%

Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Lowest Job Numbers

2010September

201520-YearAverage

10-YearAverage

United States 138,350,000 130,944,000 129,649,000 142,371,000 131,952,000 135,429,000New York State 8,774,000 8,522,600 8,496,900 9,261,000 8,566,700 8,778,900New York City 3,776,500 3,683,600 3,678,400 4,202,400 3,698,700 3,842,400

Start of 2007 Recession: December 2007

End of Recession: June 2009

Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

UnemploymentTime Period

Non-FarmJobs

Time Period

Employment increased across the United States and New York State. New York City lost 1,100 jobs since last quarter. All three markets are performing better compared to their 20 and 10 year averages. New York State finally lowered its unemployment rate to pre-recession levels at 4.8%. New York City also cut its unemployment rate to 5.2%, to what it was at the beginning of the 2007 recession.

September 2015 New York City Industry Composition of Nonfarm JobsNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.


• The Leisure and Hospitality sector has grown 102% in 20 years.• The Goods Producing sector lost 32% of its labor force in 20 years.• Vice versa, the Service Producting sector grew by 32% in 20 years.• In a 20-Year growth, the following sectors grew by 50-60%: Professional and Business Services; Education and Health Services; & Other Services.• Financial Activities had the weakest 10-Year growth at 2.6%.• Government lost 0.6% of its workforce in 10 years.

Goods Producing, 2.8%

Service Producing, 52.8%

Information, 2.4%

Financial Activities, 6.1%

Professional & Business Services,

9.1%

Education & Health Services, 11.5%

Leisure & Hospitality, 5.7%

Other Services, 2.5%

Government, 7.2%

2015

Goods Producing,

3.6%

Service Producing,

52.5%

Information, 2.6%

Financial Activities,

7.0%

Professional & Business

Services, 8.7%

Education & Health

Services, 10.5%

Leisure & Hospitality,

4.4%


Government, 8.5%

2005

Goods Producing,

5.3%

Service Producing,

51.9%

Information, 2.7%

Financial Activities, 8.1%

Professional & Business

Services, 7.7%

Education & Health

Services, 9.4%

Leisure & Hospitality,

3.6%


Government, 9.2%

1995

September 2015 New York City Industry SnapshotNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.Industry Sectors are sorted by September 2015 results.

IndustrySeptember

2015August2015

September2014

NetMonth

PercentMonth

NetYear

PercentYear

Total Nonfarm 4,191,500 4,191,900 4,119,600 (400) 0.0% 71,900 1.7%Total Private 3,648,900 3,644,100 3,579,100 4,800 0.1% 69,800 2.0%Service Providing 3,982,200 3,980,000 3,909,500 2,200 0.1% 72,700 1.9%Education & Health Services 866,100 852,900 845,300 13,200 1.5% 20,800 2.5%Professional & Business Services 686,500 692,800 672,400 (6,300) -0.9% 14,100 2.1%Government 542,600 547,800 540,500 (5,200) -0.9% 2,100 0.4%Financial Activities 458,900 464,200 450,400 (5,300) -1.1% 8,500 1.9%Leisure & Hospitality 426,800 426,100 413,600 700 0.2% 13,200 3.2%Goods Producing 209,300 211,900 210,100 (2,600) -1.2% (800) -0.4%Other Services 187,200 188,700 179,800 (1,500) -0.8% 7,400 4.1%Information 183,200 185,500 185,100 (2,300) -1.2% (1,900) -1.0%


September 2015 New York City Industry Snapshot: Yearly Percentage ChangeNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.Industry Sectors are sorted by Percentage by Year.

IndustrySeptember

2015August2015

September2014

NetMonth

PercentMonth

NetYear

PercentYear

Total Nonfarm 4,191,500 4,191,900 4,119,600 (400) 0.0% 71,900 1.7%Total Private 3,648,900 3,644,100 3,579,100 4,800 0.1% 69,800 2.0%Goods Producing 187,200 188,700 179,800 (1,500) -0.8% 7,400 4.1%Information 426,800 426,100 413,600 700 0.2% 13,200 3.2%Professional & Business Services 866,100 852,900 845,300 13,200 1.5% 20,800 2.5%Education & Health Services 686,500 692,800 672,400 (6,300) -0.9% 14,100 2.1%Other Services 3,982,200 3,980,000 3,909,500 2,200 0.1% 72,700 1.9%Service Providing 458,900 464,200 450,400 (5,300) -1.1% 8,500 1.9%Leisure & Hospitality 542,600 547,800 540,500 (5,200) -0.9% 2,100 0.4%Financial Activities 209,300 211,900 210,100 (2,600) -1.2% (800) -0.4%Government 183,200 185,500 185,100 (2,300) -1.2% (1,900) -1.0%


New York City Historical Industry SnapshotNot Seasonally Adjusted

IndustrySeptember

2015September

2010September

2005Net

5 YearPercent5 Year

Net10 Year

Percent10 Year

Total Nonfarm 4,191,500 3,704,100 3,610,000 487,400 13.2% 581,500 16.1%Total Private 3,648,900 3,157,800 3,064,100 491,100 15.6% 584,800 19.1%Service Providing 3,982,200 3,512,900 3,377,600 469,300 13.4% 604,600 17.9%Education & Health Services 866,100 744,500 673,300 121,600 16.3% 192,800 28.6%Professional & Business Services 686,500 575,000 558,700 111,500 19.4% 127,800 22.9%Government 542,600 546,300 545,900 -3,700 -0.7% -3,300 -0.6%Financial Activities 458,900 430,800 447,300 28,100 6.5% 11,600 2.6%Leisure & Hospitality 426,800 327,900 282,100 98,900 30.2% 144,700 51.3%Goods Producing 209,300 191,200 232,400 18,100 9.5% -23,100 -9.9%Other Services 187,200 159,900 153,400 27,300 17.1% 33,800 22.0%Information 183,200 167,900 164,500 15,300 9.1% 18,700 11.4%


2015 New York City WagesData is preliminary. Annual salaries are projected by quarterly surveys. Since 2015 is not complete, salaries are subject to revisions.Sorted by Total Wages ($ Millions) in ascending order.


$105,344 $111,880

$511,440 $129,812

$62,784 $46,388

$153,196 $251,060

$38,160 $60,680

$85,616 $63,536

$31,796 $84,404

$69,196 $46,720 $54,048

$62,016 $55,840

$38,740 $69,216

$222,216

$421,587 $388,128

$163,481 $48,513

$33,459 $29,646 $26,507

$17,187 $13,078 $12,545 $11,458 $11,128 $10,310

$9,555 $8,570 $7,661 $5,971 $4,855 $4,244

$840 $16 $13

$- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000

All IndustriesAll Private

Finance & InsuranceProfessional, Scientific & Technical Services

GovernmentHealth Care & Social Assistance

InformationManagement of Companies & Enterprises

Retail TradeAdministrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation

Wholesale TradeEducational Services

Accomodation & Food ServicesReal Estate

ConstructionOther Services (Except Public Administration)

Transportation & WarehousingArts, Entertainment & Recreation

ManufacturingUnclassified

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingMining, Quarrying, and Oil/Gas Extraction

Millions

Average Wage Total Wages

New York City Wages: Time ComparisonAverage Salaries

2015Estimated

2010% Change

5 Year2005

% Change10 Year

Recession2007-2009

% ChangeSince Recession

All Industries $105,344 $77,997 35.1% $67,858 55.2% $78,129 34.8%All Private $111,880 $81,786 36.8% $70,834 57.9% $82,295 35.9%

Accommodation & Food Services $31,796 $28,585 11.2% $25,941 22.6% $28,384 12.0%Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation $60,680 $50,383 20.4% $40,332 50.5% $47,449 27.9%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting $69,216 $56,385 22.8% $32,292 114.3% $51,892 33.4%Arts, Entertainment & Recreation $62,016 $63,986 -3.1% $55,939 10.9% $61,730 0.5%

Construction $69,196 $69,650 -0.7% $58,314 18.7% $67,522 2.5%Educational Services $63,536 $52,569 20.9% $44,094 44.1% $49,996 27.1%Finance & Insurance $511,440 $260,986 96.0% $208,907 144.8% $266,084 92.2%

Government $62,784 $56,960 10.2% $51,730 21.4% $54,688 14.8%Health Care & Social Assistance $46,388 $47,226 -1.8% $41,759 11.1% $45,712 1.5%

Information $153,196 $107,815 42.1% $93,002 64.7% $103,569 47.9%Management of Companies & Enterprises $251,060 $186,681 34.5% $157,398 59.5% $173,013 45.1%

Manufacturing $55,840 $53,449 4.5% $48,316 15.6% $52,490 6.4%Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction $222,216 $150,855 47.3% $115,834 91.8% $134,840 64.8%

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services $129,812 $109,512 18.5% $94,057 38.0% $105,108 23.5%Real Estate $84,404 $60,650 39.2% $53,159 58.8% $60,752 38.9%

Retail Trade $38,160 $34,673 10.1% $32,715 16.6% $34,961 9.2%Transportation & Warehousing $54,048 $48,341 11.8% $42,754 26.4% $46,914 15.2%

Wholesale Trade $85,616 $78,069 9.7% $68,428 25.1% $75,306 13.7%Other Services (Except Public Administration) $46,720 $44,311 5.4% $36,593 27.7% $41,952 11.4%

Unclassified $38,740 $41,408 -6.4% $32,861 17.9% $35,017 10.6%


IndustriesTime Period

Historical Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island

• 261.887: CPI in September 2015• 213.363: 20-Year (1995 to 2015) average monthly CPI• 242.771: 10-Year (2005 to 2015) average monthly CPI• 0.5%: 10-Year (2005 to 2015) average monthly change in CPI

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Index is at a current level of 261.89, up from 261.35 last month and up from 261.07 one year ago. This is a change of 0.21% from last month and 0.31% from one year ago.

-4.0%

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Consumer Price Index | New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island

CPI Quarterly % Change

IISection Two

Economic Activity

National Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP)Adjusted For Inflation: Chained (2009) DollarsGDP figures for the third quarter were not released while compiling this report.

• $16,333.6 Billion: Q2 Gross Domestric Product• $13,680.1 Billion: 20-Year National GDP Quarterly Average• $15,102.8 Billion: 10-Year National GDP Quarterly Average• 3.9%: Q2 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change• 2.5%: 20-Year Average Quarterly Change in Real National GDP• 1.5%: 10-Year Average Quarterly Change in Real National GDP

Bureau of Economic Analysis

US Monthly Real GDP is at a current level of 16.35T (August 2015), down from 16.38T the prior month. This represents a monthly annualized growth rate of -1.83%, compared to a long term

average annualized growth rate of 2.49%. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local

government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, after

increasing 0.6 percent in the first.

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q320

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q120

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q320

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2012

q120

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2013

q120

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2014

q120

14q2

2014

q320

14q4

2015

q120

15q2

$ (B

illio

ns)

National Gross Domestic Product

GDP % Change in GDP

New York City Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)

• 209.71: CEI in September 2015• 169.44: Ten Year Average• 42.36%: Ten Year Growth• 31.04%: Five Year Growth

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

A coindicent index is a single summary statistic that tracks the current state of the economy. The index is computed from a number of data series that move systematically with overall economic conditions. A rise in the index indicates an expansion of economic activity and a decline in the index indicates a contraction in economic activity. Index is computed using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

In September, the New York City Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) increased at an annual rate of 4.2%, following a 4.7% increase in August. The index has risen 5.6% over the past 12 months.

169.44 (NYC-CEI) 10-Year Average

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New York City Coincident Economic Indicator

New York City 10-Year Average New York New Jersey

Monthly National Housing Starts

• 1,206,000: September 2015 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of Housing Starts• 1,333,000: 20-Year Average• 986,000: 10-Year Average

U.S. Census Bureau

Housing starts reflect a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects from a time series to better reveal certain non-seasonal features such as underlying trends and business cycles. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is the seasonally adjusted monthly value multiplied by 12. The benefit of the annual rate is that not only can one monthly estimate be compared with another, monthly data can also be compared with an annual total. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is neither a forecast nor a projection; rather, it is a description of the rate of housing starts in the particular month for which they are calculated.

US Housing Starts is at a current level of 1.206M, up from 1.132M last month and up from 1.026M one year ago. This is a change of 6.54% from

last month and 17.54% from one year ago.

986

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201

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National Housing Starts

Housing Starts 10-Year Average

National Auto SalesLight Vehicle Total - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (Millions)

• 18.1 Million: September 2015 U.S. Auto Sales• 15.4 Million: 20-Year average monthly auto sales• 14.4 Million: 10-Year average monthly auto sales


14.4 - 10-Year Average

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National Auto Sales

Sales 10-Year Avg.

National Corporate ProfitsProfits From Current ProductionThird Quarter Numbers Currently Not Released

• $2,083 Billion: Second Quarter 2015 corporate profits from production• $1,731.2 Billion: 10-Year quarterly average corporate profits from production


Profits from current production and capital consumption adjustment increased $70.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $123.0 billion in the first.

$1,731.2 Billion

0.00

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Billi

ons

National Corporate Profits

Profit 10-Year Average

Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

• 87.2: September 2015 Consumer Sentiment Index• 90.8: Third Quarter 2015 Consumer Sentiment Index• 77.3: 10-Year Average Consumer Sentiment Index

University of Michigan

The Survey of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous U.S. an equal probability of being selected. Interviews are conducted throughout the month by telephone. The survey assesses near-time consumer attitudes on the business climate, personal finance, and spending, promotes an understanding of, and to forecast changes in, the national economy, provides a means of incorporating empirical measures of consumer expectations into models of spending and saving behavior, gauges the economic expectations and probable future spending behavior of the consumer, judges the consumer's level of optimism/pessimism.

The CSI is a key indicator that gauges the average US consumer's confidence level. This is an important indicator for retailers, economists, and investors. The Sentiment Index was 87.2 in the September 2015 survey, down from

91.9 in August, but above last September’s 84.6. Stronger CSI also indicates improving incomes and positive prospects for the economy, stimulating a strengthening US dollar, and in turn makes gold less attractive.

77.3 ICS 10-Year Average

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

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3Q12

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1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Index 10-Year Average

New York Focused REIT Stock PricesYear-Over-Year

Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

New York Stock Exchange and Yahoo! Finance

• SL Green Realty increased 99% in stock value over a ten year span. September's adjusted closing was $108.95.• Boston Properties increased 156% in stock value over a ten year span. September's adjusted closing was $117.47.• Equity Residential increased 187% in stock value over a ten year span. September's adjusted closing was $73.55.• Vornado Realty Trust increased 70% in stock value over a ten year span. September's adjusted closing was $90.63.• AvalonBay Communities increased 194% in stock value over a ten year span. September's adjusted closing was $172.81

$-

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$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real Estate Investment Trusts | Year-Over-Year (September)

SL Green Realty Boston Properties Equity Residential Vornado Realty Trust AvalonBay

Interest RatesDaily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

• Rate on Sept. 30, 2015: 0.33% • Rate on Sept. 30, 2015: 1.37% • Rate on Sept. 30, 2015: 2.06% • Rate on Sept. 30, 2015: 2.87%• 10-Year Average: 1.39% • 10-Year Average: 2.34% • 10-Year Average: 3.17% • 10-Year Average: 3.91%

U.S. Department of Treasury

One-Year Treasury Five-Year Treasury Ten-Year Treasury Thirty-Year Treasury

30-Year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 9, 2006. From February 18, 2002 to February 8, 2006, Treasury published alternatives to a 30-year rate. Historical trend reflects discontinued time frame as an estimation.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

10/3/2005 10/3/2006 10/3/2007 10/3/2008 10/3/2009 10/3/2010 10/3/2011 10/3/2012 10/3/2013 10/3/2014

Treasury Rates

One-Year Treasury Five-Year Treasury Ten-Year Treasury Thirty-Year Treasury

IIISection Three

Office Market Indicators

Availability and Vacancy Overview3Q 2015

3Q15 2Q15Q-to-QTrend

3Q14Yr-to-YrTrend

Availability by Market

Manhattan 10.6% 10.7% 10.6%

Midtown 11.0% 11.0% 11.2%

Midtown South 8.7% 8.9% 9.2%

Downtown 12.1% 12.8% 12.3%

Sublease Overall 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Vacancy by Market

Manhattan 8.0% 8.0% 8.4%

Midtown 7.8% 7.8% 8.2%

Midtown South 5.9% 6.0% 6.3%

Downtown 11.0% 11.3% 11.6%

Sublease Overall 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%

Strengthening Market Flat Market

Lee & Associates

Weakening Market

Asking Rent Overview (Average)Overall: Direct and Sublease

3Q15 2Q15% Change

Q-to-QQ-to-QTrend

3Q14% Change

Y-to-YY-to-YTrend

Overall Asking Rent

Manhattan $61.27 $59.78 2.5% $57.13 7.2%

Midtown $67.34 $66.14 1.8% $64.27 4.8%

Midtown South $65.27 $63.11 3.4% $60.07 8.7%

Downtown $49.15 $49.54 -0.8% $45.96 6.9%

Asking Rent by Class (Manhattan)

Class A $61.22 $60.35 1.4% $59.32 3.2%

Class B $62.52 $60.34 3.6% $54.13 4.0%

Class C $57.55 $54.85 4.9% $50.70 13.5%

Strengthening Market Flat Market Weakening Market

For historical purposes, data was based on figures provided by CoStar. Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet. Figures may change due to post-quarter adjustments and corrections. The objective of this page is to provide a quick snapshot of the Office Market according to outside sources. Lee & Associates Office Metrics were implemented Q1 2015. Statistics on this page will reflect full Lee & Associates metrics in Q1 2016. Please reference the latest Lee & Associates NYC Manhattan Office Report for a detailed explanation of the Manhattan Office market.

Historical Manhattan Vacancy and Availability

3Q15: Vacancy Availability8.0% 10.6%

Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet.

8.2%

11.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Manhattan Vacancy and Availability

Vacancy Availability 5-Year Vacancy Avg. 5-Year Availability Avg.

Historical Availability: Market Comparison II

2Q15: Midtown Midtown South Downtown11.0% 8.7% 12.1%


12.1%

9.7%

14.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%


Historical Availability

Midtown Midtown South Downtown 5Y Midtown Avg. 5Y Midtown South Avg. 5Y Downtown Avg.

Historical Vacancy: Market Comparison

3Q15: Midtown Midtown South Downtown7.8% 5.9% 11.0%


8.4%

6.5%

10.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%


Historical Vacancy

Midtown Midtown South Downtown

5-Year Midtown Avg. 5-Year Mid. South Avg. 5-Year Downtown Avg.

Historical Class Availability Comparison

2Q15: Class A Class B Class C11.2% 9.7% 7.8%


12.8%

10.4%

7.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%


Historical Property Class Availability

Class A Class B Class C 5Y Class A Avg. 5Y Class B Avg. 5Y Class C Avg.

Yearly Historical Available Supply: Direct vs Sublease


30.89 28.34 33.55

43.52 46.00 47.84 47.39 48.48 43.76 43.60

8.31 7.66

8.88

15.09 12.11 9.67 10.24 9.18

7.90 7.12

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60.00

70.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to Date

Mill

ions

SF

Direct vs Sublease | Yearly Historical

Direct Sublease

Historical Manhattan Asking Rents

3Q Direct Sublease Overall2015 61.44$ 50.54$ 61.27$

For historical purposes, data was based on figures provided by CoStar. Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet. Figures may change due to post-quarter adjustments and corrections. The objective of this page is to provide a quick snapshot of the Office Market according to outside sources. Lee & Associates Office Metrics were implemented Q1 2015. Please reference the latest Lee & Associates NYC Manhattan Office Report for a detailed explanation of the Manhattan Office market.

$53.56

$47.49

$52.92

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$30.00

$40.00

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$70.00

$80.00

4Q2005 3Q2006 2Q2007 1Q2008 4Q2008 3Q2009 2Q2010 1Q2011 4Q2011 3Q2012 2Q2013 1Q2014 4Q2014 3Q2015

Historical Manhattan Asking Rents

Direct Sublet Overall 10-Year Direct Avg. 10-Year Sublet Avg. 10-Year Overall Avg.

Historical Overall Asking Rents: Market Comparison

3Q Midtown Midtown South Downtown2015 $67.34 $65.27 $49.15


$66.11

$46.61

$43.34

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$60.00

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$80.00

$90.00

4Q20

051Q

2006

2Q20

063Q

2006

4Q20

061Q

2007

2Q20

073Q

2007

4Q20

071Q

2008

2Q20

083Q

2008

4Q20

081Q

2009

2Q20

093Q

2009

4Q20

091Q

2010

2Q20

103Q

2010

4Q20

101Q

2011

2Q20

113Q

2011

4Q20

111Q

2012

2Q20

123Q

2012

4Q20

121Q

2013

2Q20

133Q

2013

4Q20

131Q

2014

2Q20

143Q

2014

4Q20

141Q

2015

2Q20

153Q

2015

Historical Overall Asking Rents | Market Comparison

Midtown Midtown South Downtown

10-Year Midtown Avg. 10-Year Mid. South Avg. 10-Year Downtown Avg.

Historical Overall Asking Rents: Class Comparison

3Q Class A Class B Class C2015 $61.22 $62.52 $57.55


$59.03

$45.63

$38.80

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$40.00

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$80.00

4Q20

051Q

2006

2Q20

063Q

2006

4Q20

061Q

2007

2Q20

073Q

2007

4Q20

071Q

2008

2Q20

083Q

2008

4Q20

081Q

2009

2Q20

093Q

2009

4Q20

091Q

2010

2Q20

103Q

2010

4Q20

101Q

2011

2Q20

113Q

2011

4Q20

111Q

2012

2Q20

123Q

2012

4Q20

121Q

2013

2Q20

133Q

2013

4Q20

131Q

2014

2Q20

143Q

2014

4Q20

141Q

2015

2Q20

153Q

2015

Historical Overall Asking Rents | Class Comparison

Class A Class B Class C 10-Year Class A Avg. 10-Year Class B Avg. 10-Year Class C Avg.

Manhattan 10-Year Quarterly Net Absorption


(4,000,000)

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,0004Q

2005

1Q20

062Q

2006

3Q20

064Q

2006

1Q20

072Q

2007

3Q20

074Q

2007

1Q20

082Q

2008

3Q20

084Q

2008

1Q20

092Q

2009

3Q20

094Q

2009

1Q20

102Q

2010

3Q20

104Q

2010

1Q20

112Q

2011

3Q20

114Q

2011

1Q20

122Q

2012

3Q20

124Q

2012

1Q20

132Q

2013

3Q20

134Q

2013

1Q20

142Q

2014

3Q20

144Q

2014

1Q20

152Q

2015

3Q20

15

Manhattan Net Absorption

Net Absorption 10-Year Average

352,306 Ten Year Average

Manhattan 10-Year Quarterly Leasing Activity


8,813,144 Ten-Year Average

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

4Q20

051Q

2006

2Q20

063Q

2006

4Q20

061Q

2007

2Q20

073Q

2007

4Q20

071Q

2008

2Q20

083Q

2008

4Q20

081Q

2009

2Q20

093Q

2009

4Q20

091Q

2010

2Q20

103Q

2010

4Q20

101Q

2011

2Q20

113Q

2011

4Q20

111Q

2012

2Q20

123Q

2012

4Q20

121Q

2013

2Q20

133Q

2013

4Q20

131Q

2014

2Q20

143Q

2014

4Q20

141Q

2015

2Q20

153Q

2015

Squa

re F

eet

Quarterly Leasing Activity

Leasing Activity 10-Year Average

CoStar and Lee & Associates

Lee & Associates (New York) | JLL (National)

$73.28 $66.80

$41.68 $36.53

$35.27 $33.98 $33.70

$33.17 $32.59

$31.80 $30.83

$29.91 $29.82

$29.52 $29.28

$28.59 $28.21

$26.33 $25.63

$25.21 $25.16

$24.27 $24.08 $23.93 $23.75

$22.94 $22.63 $22.49 $22.43 $22.42 $22.32 $22.26 $22.03

$21.01 $20.62 $20.52 $20.36

$19.68

$- $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00

New YorkSan FranciscoSilicon Valley

Washington D.C.Los Angeles

MiamiSeattleBostonAustin

Fairfield County (CT)OaklandChicago

West Palm BeachSan Diego

HoustonOrange County (CA)

Ft. LauderdaleLong Island

MinneapolisDenver

New JerseyWestchester County (NY)

PortlandDallas

PhiladelphiaCharlotte

San AntonioPhoenix

SacramentoBaltimore

AtlantaPittsburgh

Tampa BayNashville

Raleigh-DurhamOrlando

Salt Lake CitySt. Louis

Q3 2015 Class A Average Office Rates

Lee & Associates NYC600 Madison Avenue, Third FloorNew York, NY 10022www.leeassociatesnyc.com

James [email protected]

Henry AbramovResearch [email protected]

Lee & Associates NYC | Real Estate Economics Metrics Tracker | Third Quarter 2015

http://www.leeassociatesnyc.com/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

3q2015 economic metrics

Documents