4 th annual strategy and security conference

4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference

Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic

Alliance

Philip WorréExecutive Director, International Security Information Service,

Europe

8 March 2013

Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance

Presentation

Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe

o Introductiono Security Dimensiono Political & Strategic Dimensiono The Future…



Introduction


Introduction


o Two ways of looking at subjecto « Alliance »o Transatlantic alliance

o Two Parts• Defined security threats and challenges• Political/strategic threats and challenges


Introduction


o Transatlantic allianceo Washington Treatyo Up to end of Cold War

o US umbrellao Limited European capabilities

o Post Cold War erao Ex-Yugoslaviao Development of autonomous European

Capabilites


Introduction


o NATO and EU: Main actorso Transatlantic alliance vital for Europe’s

securityo NATO’s role enshrined in Lisbon Treatyo EU-NATO cooperation – Berlin Plus

o Advantages of EU-NATO cooperationo Multiplication of options in crisis

management responseo Financial crisis: pooling & sharing/SDI

Introduction


o Last decade: evolution in the understanding and definition of global threats

• No state border and non-state actors• Dimensions: political, economic, social

and environmental• Hybrid threats: “are those posed by

adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.” (NATO ACT)




Security Dimension

Security Dimension


o Emerging Security Challenges• Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs• Cyber attacks• Piracy and maritime security• Energy and environmental security• State failure


Security Dimension


o NATO’s response• Emerging Security Challenges Division

(ESCD) created within NATO international staff in August 2010

• Brought together various existing fields of expertise into a single division

• Stuctural response to hybrid, inter-related and cross-cutting threats

• Fruit of several years of discussions, consulting, debates and analysis



o European Union• Approach: fragmented and less

coordinated• Developed sectorial action programmes• Drafted resolutions and threat-specific

strategies• Confronted to hurdles• « Soft Power » dimension


Security Dimension


o Key EU documents


Security Dimension

European Security Strategy(2003)

• Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs• Regional Conflicts• State Failure• Organised Crime

Report on the Implementation of

the ESS (2008)

•Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs•Organised Crime•Cyber Security•Energy Security•Climate Change

Internal Security Strategy(2010)

•Terrorism•Serious and organised crime•Cyber-crime•Cross-border crime•Violence itself•Natural and man-madedisasters



Security Dimension

o Institutional complexity• CFSP and CSDP• Decision-making process• Leader, enabler or follower according to

issueo Role of the EU in global security

• Focus on immediate neighbourhood• Mandate of EU as security actor


o Security threats – common pointso Unpredictableo Changing/evolving natureo Cross-dimensionalo Response defined in a strategy

o Beyond: political and strategic challengeo Main challenge to the future of the

Transatlantic Alliance: relevance

Security Dimension


Political & Strategic Dimension


o Relevanceo How to remain relevant in a world of

emergingo Global powerso Middle powerso Nuclear stateso Regional security organisationso Powerful communication technology



o Backdropo Financial Crisiso Capability gapso Decrease in political will (crisis

management)o Increasingly involved public opinion



o Relevance is a “must”o Credibility

o Failed/lack of intervention – less deterrence

o Not omnipotenceo One’s voice should be heardo Credible solutions to conflict management

o Selected examples of challenges



o Global Powerso China

o Increased militarisationo Rise of tensions territorial waterso Insatiable appetite for natural resourceso Economic superpowero Increased projection powero Increased participation in crisis

management operations



o Global Powerso India

o Increasing projection powero From regional sphere of influence to

global



o Middle Powerso South Korea

o Desire for more autonomyo Militarised – hard powero Wants to develop its political powero Fully assumes its new status



o Regional Security Organisationso Africa

o AUo ECOWAS – broadening of mandateo Still in cooperation with transatlantic

actorso SCOo ASEAN



o Nuclear Powerso Iran

o Technological developmento P5+1 Talks stalledo Expanding its capabilities

o North Koreao Provocativeo Satellite launcho Nuclear testso Sanctions not working



o Importance of Asia in 21st centuryo Recognised by the US

o “Pivot to Asia”o Participation in 2012 ASEAN summito Attempt to remain relevant

o Recognised by Russiao Question for Europe?

o “What does the ‘Pivot’ mean for EU-US relations?”

o “What about us?”o Fear



o Question of NATO and solidarity?o Relevance of Art. Vo No more large scale “Afghanistan-type”

responses under Art. Vo Pre-2001 and Post-2001 Art. V

o Meaning?o Loss of solidarity?



o Regional actiono Arab Spring

o Enthusiasmo Moderate enthusiasmo Hesitation and reluctanceo Shift in public opinion – perceived lack

of coherent action/policyo EU’s role

o Libya – efforts stalledo Mali – late action



o Challenge not only externalo Within Europe and North America: changing dynamics

o New technology - Public opiniono War posted on Youtubeo More informed – facts, dates, data, statisticso More dis-/misinformed

o No such thing as “raw” materialo Everyone has an opinion

o Impact of “Wikileaks” – tension, distrusto Civil society pushing for increased oversight

o More informed, more critical



o Additional factor: Financial Crisiso Major impact

o Defence industryo Defence budgetso Increasing oversight and supervision on

private practiceso Catalyst – loss of relevance

o Decreased national military capabilities



o Internal systemic issueso Current crisis management tools

o Designed according to institution’s strategy

o Could work, but don’to Example: EU battlegroups

o Never deployedo Commitment gapo Internal institutional challenges



o Additional factor: Financial Crisiso Loss of trust, increased gap between

governing bodies and public opiniono Reflected during elections – populism /

extremismo Impact at the highest levels



The Future…


o Challengingo No miracle solution: realisation that we live

in a different worldo Remaining relevant

o Take full advantage of opportunities

The Future…


o Accept presence of other actorso Cooperate in spirit of trust

o Identify common goalso Work togethero Military Exercises / Exchangeso Crisis management cooperation

o Anti-piracy Horn of Africa operations

The Future…


o Accept presence of other actorso Cooperate in spirit of trust

o Understanding of the “other”o Maintain pragmatic approacho Create constructive atmosphere

o Be active and involvedo Provide mediation and communication

channelso P5+1 Talks / 6 Party Talks

The Future…


o Crisis Management: recreate tools adapted to our contemporary worldo Pragmatic approacho “Comprehensive” / CivMilo Easily deployable units

o Including decision-making processo Clear mandate

o Define what “alliance” meanso Important for all to understand

o Define NATO’s/EU’s mission/role

The Future…


o Consolidate the acquis and reinforce transatlantic alliance through other meanso US-EU FTAo Develop SDI / P&S initiativeso Crisis provides opportunities

o Take public opinion / civil society into accounto Take initiative in informing

o Prevent someone else from doing ito Development of public diplomacy actionso Oversight/Responsibility

o Communication is crucial

The Future…


Questions

4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference

Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic

Alliance

Philip WorréExecutive Director, International Security Information Service,

Europe

[email protected]

4 th annual strategy and security conference

Documents

challenges challenges

analysis challenges

nato act challenges

environmentalhybrid

nato international staff

nonstate actorsdimensions

nonconventional means

maritime securityenergy