4.2 changing mobility, the new automotive landscape (by lieven claeys)

Smart mobility - the new automotive landscape 1

CONFIDENTIAL Template Innovation Day 2017 CONFIDENTIAL

Smart mobility,the new automotive landscape

Lieven ClaeysKey Account Manager – Internet of [email protected]

TRACK 4 - SMART INDUSTRIES


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SMART MOBILITY

Emerging innovative technologies Customer preferences

Bring a well established system for decades on the verge of a major transformation

At what speed and in which direction will the transformation take place?Whatever the direction will be, these forces will have the potential to alter the current industry structures, business models, the existing value chain, competitive dynamics and customer value propositions.


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TWO VISIONS

Incumbent view• Incremental growth to

future.

• Idea that current ecosystem will mostly remains.

• Controlled introduction of advanced technologies but sustain the current model.

Disruptorview• Giant leap towards

fully autonomous cars, on demand.

• No legacy business, no stakes to protect.

• New entrants - Tech Giants - pushing the transformation.

Will private ownership of driver controlled

cars remain more or less unchanged?

Or will we migrate to a driverless system of

shared mobility?


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TWO VISIONS

Will private ownership of driver controlled

cars remain more or less unchanged?

Or will we migrate to a driverless system of

shared mobility?

Incumbent viewTheir view of the future• Preserve flexibility for

customers• Create value thru

connected car• Scale down advanced

technology from high end vehicles

• Regulations blocking factor

• Challenge of introducing new advanced technology

Believe that they can remain at the center, manage speed and timing of new forces!

DisruptorviewTheir view of the future• Working on radical different

system than today’s personal, driver-controlled cars• No more traffic jams• No more car crashes• No need for large parking lots• Drastic reduction of energy

consumption• High reduction in cost per

km/ml• Smart infrastructure• Easier law enforcement

• Multimodal transportation• Car sharing services


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FOUR FUTURES

Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

Auto

nom

ous

ADAS

CON

NEC

TED

CAR

Drive

r

Personal SharedOWNERSHIP

VEH

ICLE

CO

NT

RO

LE

1

2

3

4

Low HighASSET EFFICIENCY

Tech

nolo

gy in

nova

tion

Business model innovation

• Sensor systems• Image processing• Camera technology• 3D rendering• High speed connectivity• R/T processing• Blockchain• AI• Behavior analysis• Cloud• Mobile platforms• Edge computing • AR• Data analytics• V2X

NEW MOBILITY ECOSYSTEM

Source : Graphics, Deloitte University Press, The future of mobility


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• Private ownership remains.• Privacy, flexibility and convenience are valued.• Very little change in business model.• Incorporating new vehicle lines with advanced

technology (ADAS, ISA, …) but full autonomy ?• Branding & Lifestyle

FOUR FUTURES

Incremental change1


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EXAMPLES FUTURE 1Incremental change

Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

1

2

3

4AD

ASCO

NN

ECTE

D C

AR

Connected Car projects

Bike Sensor


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CLICK TO INSERT SLIDE TITLECONNECTED CAR PROJECTSIncremental change


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myJINIIncremental change


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Incremental change


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• Still private vehicles for convenience & flexibility.• Driverless features (ADAS) first serving safety

and other convenience benefits.• Dawn of new design line of vehicles.

Driverless revolution2

FOUR FUTURES

High customization, Personalization,Tailored cars.

Classic 4-door,Driver-in-front-on-left,Gripping the steering wheel


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Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

1

2

3

4AD

ASCO

NN

ECTE

D C

AR IMU

EXAMPLES FUTURE 2

Camera Image

processing

Camera based wheel

alignment

Self driving


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INNERTIAL MEASUREMENT UNITSelf driving

Central sensing platform for Adaptive Safety SystemsBehavioral monitoring for Insurance companies


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FOUR FUTURES

• Shift in individual mobility behavior.• Diverse on-demand mobility solutions via the smartphones.• Consumers value convenience of p-2-p transportation

• No hassle with navigating traffic and finding parking space.

• From “one-vehicle fits all” to “solution for each specific purpose”.• Number of cars per family could be reduced.

World of car sharing3


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Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

1

2

3

4AD

ASCO

NN

ECTE

D C

AR

EXAMPLES FUTURE 3Car sharing


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stapp.inCar sharing


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FOUR FUTURES

• Convergence of both the autonomous and car-sharing trend.• Paradigm shift to mobility as a service, a new mobility experience.• Seamless intermodal transportation – faster, cheaper, cleaner & safer.• Car becomes merely a platform, an accessory to your smartphone.• Tremendous opportunities to monetize new value in-transit.

Accessible autonomy4


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FOUR FUTURES

The Lillium Jet

Airbus Pop.Up System


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Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

1

2

3

4AD

ASCO

NN

ECTE

D C

AR

EXAMPLES FUTURE 4


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360% verkeerskundig inzicht dankzij het zicht op rotondes en ongeregelde kruispunten

Optimalisatie van de wachttijden aan geregelde kruispunten

Real-time zicht op het verkeervoor de wegbeheerder

Cloud geconnecteerde producten voorverbeterd verkeerskundig inzicht en regeling

Samenwerken voor een betere regeling:Vialis op de concurrentie

Cash flow vanuit een onverwachte hoek:services voor logistieke partijen

Ruimte voor kwaliteitsvol verkeerskundig advies dankzij automatisatie

€


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–

SCANAUTO CITY DATA STEREAMING (PARKINGSPOT SURVEILLANCE, …)TODAY DRIVER CONTROLLED, TOMORROW AUTONOMOUS.

DIGITALE FIETSSLEUTEL –FIETS MET APP OPENEN MAAKT FIETSDELEN MOGELIJK MET BEPERKTE INFRASTRUCTUUR

TRACEREN WAGENS – BIJ HET BINNENRIJDEN VAN UTRECHT GEKOPPELD AAN AUTOMATISCH BETALINGSSYSTEEM

ADAPTIEVE PARKEERPLAATS –RESERVATIE EN OPTIMALISATIE VAN

PARKEERPLAATSEN VOOR ZWAKKERE GEBRUIKERS

SAFE LIGHTS – STRAATVERLICHTING OP KRITIEKE PUNTEN AFSTELLEN IN FUNCTIE VAN FIETSEND VERKEER. WARNING TO DRIVERS OF APPROACHING BYCICLES.

SLIMME VERKEERSSTURING – ADAPTIEVE REGELING VAN VRI’S TER VERBETERING VAN TRAFFIC-FLOW.


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EFFECTS ON ESTIMATED COST/KM

Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

Auto

nom

ous

Drive

r


VEH

ICLE

CO

NT

RO

LE

1

2

3

4



~1€

~0,5€ ~0,3€

~0,7€

Source : Graphics, Deloitte University Press, The future of mobility


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COURSE OF CHANGE

Incrementalchange

Self driving

Car sharing

Accessible autonomy

Auto

nom

ous

ADAS

CON

NEC

TED

CAR

Drive

r


VEH

ICLE

CO

NT

RO

LE

1

2

3

4



A

B BB


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1. Step A – Gradual adoption of sharing assets• From pure personal ownership to sharing assets already under way.• Demand – Supply matching platforms evolving rapidly.• Soon, competition will start to play its role to reduce market prices.• Technologies as ADAS and ISA are being introduced.

2. Step B – Shift to driverless• Acceptance further away than car-sharing

• Technology limitation, • Security• Liability

• Speed of overcome will be key to the adoption of autonomous driving.• Automakers shift from driver-only to driver-assist to autonomous.• Disrupters – like Google – jumping straight to full autonomous.

• Also, shift from 3 to 4 due to economic incentive to reduce THE biggest cost factor in ride-sharing being the driver.

COURSE OF CHANGE ?


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NEW COMPETITION AND COOPERATION

OEM

OEM

OEM

Tier 1

Tier 1 Tier 1

Established OEM

OEMs compete with each other

Established suppliers

OEM

Tier 1

Established OEM

Established suppliers Mobility Providers

Emerging OEM

Tech giants

Tier 0.5

Tier 1OEM

OEM

SoftwareSuppliers

Google

New OEMsBYD

Specialty OEMTesla

Car SharingZipCar

Lyft

OEMs compete in a complex market space

Content-providers

NetflixSpotify

Telco’sAT&T

VerizonEricsson

Consumer Electronics

Apple

Source : Graphics, McKinsey&Company, Automotive revolution, Jan ‘16


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ProductionProduct

development(SW)

Product development

(HW)Service

NEW MOBILITY VALUE CHAIN

Design

Established players

STEP ALONG THE MOBILITY VALUE CHAIN

Sales

Specialty emergingplayers

Tech Giants& new entrants

Mobility Providers

Tier 0.5 systemintegrator

New entrants are more focused in their product offering and activities along the value chain and attractive market segments and may expand from there.

Due to this transformational disruption of the value chain: there is a call for action to decide “where to play” and “how to win”.

Focu

sed


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1. The new mobility ecosystem could spark a “virtual” value chain by capturing, aggregating and analyzing mobility-related data.

• Provide end-to-end mobility services• Manage the mobility network• Create and manage in-vehicle experience (content, in-vehicle services)• Capture, analyze and monetize predictions of where people travel,

routes they take and what they do along the route.

2. Opportunity for infrastructure enablers• Provide safe & efficient movement with physical, energy and digital infrastructure.

• Smart tolling, traffic flow mgmt., seamless connectivity, …

• Network security

HOW COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE ?


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3. Effects will extend beyond just automotive industry

HOW COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE ?

Automotive manufacturersGain complete new capabilities to build new customized products, define new manufacturing techniques (3D) and adapt supply chain.

Technology firmdriving much of the transformation, toppling existing structures. The vehicle is just another platform in the multi-device world. In highly advantage position to capture information and new value

InsurersAddition from personal liability to system-failure insurance.

GovernmentErosion in tax income due to reduction in fuel, vehicles sales, speeding. Shift to tax based on movement.

RetailIncrease in sales due to new mobility platform integration and home delivery options.

EnergyLower fossil fuel energy consumption from improved vehicle efficiency & lighter materials.

MediaIncrease in consumption of multimedia and information due to time not driving.

TelecomTremendous additional bandwidth requirements to meet demand for connectivity and reliability.


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RetailRailroad

Office

Road

Home

Bike Paths

FUTURE MOBILITY ECOSYSTEM

Customer relationsUser control

Data collectionPredictive analysis

Content creationIn-vehicle services

Predictive content analysis

TollingCongestion pricingFlow management

Parking management

Supply-demandSmart consumption

Battery lifecycle mgmt

Car and Pod OEMParts

Autonomous drive HW & SW

Mobility Management In-transit vehicle experience Fleet operators

Infrastructure Vehicles

Digital infrastructure Connectivity – Security & Privacy – OS

Energy

Vehicle trackingFinancing & Insurance

Operations

Source : Graphics, Deloitte University Press, Tomorrow’s mobility ecosystem


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1. If we talk about industry transformation, the automotive industry will surely be impacted heavily.

2. All aspects of current human-driven, personally owned car will be challenged.

3. The emerge of non-traditional revenue channels, ownership of the mobility value chain has the potential for disruption.

4. Value propositions will evolve from “hardware provider” to “integrated mobility service provider” – differentiation realized through digital end-to-end user experience.

5. Incumbents and disrupters will need each other to make up the new ecosystem.

TAKE AWAYS


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Thank you

Lieven ClaeysKey Account Manager – Internet of Things

E [email protected]

M +32 478 887 792

in/lievenclaeys


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