43rd edition of the bradco high desert report

24
The Companies RADCO High Desert Report A quarterly economic overview of the High Desert region affiliated with Colliers International, a global real estate firm Spring 2008 l Volume 43 The Bradco High Desert Report 760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected] Our Knowledge is your Property Inside This Issue Dear Western Real Estate Business Reader: My name is Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIOR, Senior Vice President and Director of Colliers International – Bradco in the High Desert region of Southern California. On December 27, 2007, The Bradco Companies merged with Colliers International, the third most recognized commercial brokerage firm in the world, to form Colliers International – Bradco. Prior to the merger, The Bradco Companies was the number one ranked commercial industrial land Brokerage Company serving the northern portion of San Bernardino County and the area commonly known as “the Victor Valley,” which is located just east of Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Merging with a global brokerage firm put The Bradco Companies on the global map, elevating our capabilities to a higher level. We merged with Colliers International at an ideal time for our region. The Victor Valley is the fastest growing submarket within the Inland Empire, which is the fastest growing industrial market in the nation. The Inland Empire is the only location in Southern California with large land parcels available for new development, and companies can operate their businesses at a lower cost than the surrounding Los Angeles and Orange Counties. In addition, it’s ideally located to the world’s busiest ports and railways. Although, similar to other markets, the housing market is not at its peak, the Victor Valley is preparing for the future. The Southern California Logistics Airport (SCLA) continues to grow with its recent announcement welcoming Dr. Pepper Snapple to the area last week with its state-of-the-art production and distribution center. You can read more in-depth about this development on page 23. Now is the time to start operating within a global economy. We will start seeing more foreign capital flow into our market once things start to stabilize. Our association with Colliers International affords us the ability to network with nearly 300 offices worldwide with more than 10,000 associates providing us with the global platform necessary to be competitive. This partnership has also allowed us to forge strategic alliances with some of our international and partner firms, which include (1) Cohen Financial, a national real estate capital services company and originator of commercial real estate and equity transactions, (2) PGP Valuation, the country’s largest appraisal firm and (3) PKF, the largest firm of its time specializing in hospitality feasibility and research, strategic advisory service and capital market services. We hope that you enjoy this publication created by Colliers International - Bradco. We have been publishing it since 1993 and it has become THE source for economic news and facts surrounding the High Desert of Economic Observation .................. 2 Improving Transportation in the Victor Valley ........................... 6 Sales Tax Revenue Continue to Grow in the High Desert ........ 7 SCLC’s Fifth Industrial Building ... 9 Economic Stimulus Package is Good Policy .......................... 10 Jobs, Economy Flow from Water... 11 Transportation Projects Make Inroads in the High Desert ... 12 Don’t Believe a Two-Handed Economist.............................. 13 Inland Empire Film Commission .. 15 Victor Valley Ripe for Retail Growth ....................... 16 Treasurer - Tax Collector’s Office Update ........................ 17 Adelanto City Update ................. 17 Town of Apple Valley City Update........................... 19 Barstow City Update.................... 21 Hesperia City Update .................. 22 Dr. Pepper Snapple Group Selects SCLA for New Facility ......... 23 continued on page 14 29697 High Desert Report #43.indd 1 6/27/2008 11:01:05 AM

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My name is Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIOR, Senior Vice President and Director of Colliers International – Bradco in the High Desert region of Southern California. On December 27, 2007, The Bradco Companies merged with Colliers International, the third most last week with its state-of-the-art production and distribution center. You can read more in-depth about this development on page 23. Spring 2008 l Volume 43 Our Knowledge is your Property Inside This Issue The continued on page 14

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

The

CompaniesRADCOHigh Desert Report

A quarterly economic overview of the High Desert region affiliated with Colliers International, a global real estate firm

Spring 2008 l Volume 43

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected] Our Knowledge is your Property

Inside This Issue

Dear Western Real EstateBusiness Reader:

My name is Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIOR, Senior Vice President and Director of Colliers International – Bradco in the High Desert region of Southern California. On December 27, 2007, The Bradco Companies merged with Colliers International, the third most

recognized commercial brokerage firm in the world, to form Colliers International – Bradco.

Prior to the merger, The Bradco Companies was the number one ranked commercial industrial land Brokerage Company serving the northern portion of San Bernardino County and the area commonly known as “the Victor Valley,” which is located just east of Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Merging with a global brokerage firm put The Bradco Companies on the global map, elevating our capabilities to a higher level.

We merged with Colliers International at an ideal time for our region. The Victor Valley is the fastest growing submarket within the Inland Empire, which is the fastest growing industrial market in the nation. The Inland Empire is the only location in Southern California with large land parcels available for new development, and companies can operate their businesses at a lower cost than the surrounding Los Angeles and Orange Counties. In addition, it’s ideally located to the world’s busiest ports and railways.

Although, similar to other markets, the housing market is not at its peak, the Victor Valley is preparing for the future. The Southern California Logistics Airport (SCLA) continues to grow with its recent announcement welcoming Dr. Pepper Snapple to the area

last week with its state-of-the-art production and distribution center. You can read more in-depth about this development on page 23.

Now is the time to start operating within a global economy. We will start seeing more foreign capital flow into our market once things start to stabilize. Our association with Colliers International affords us the ability to network with nearly 300 offices worldwide with more than 10,000 associates providing us with the global platform necessary to be competitive.

This partnership has also allowed us to forge strategic alliances with some of our international and partner firms, which include (1) Cohen Financial, a national real estate capital services company and originator of commercial real estate and equity transactions, (2) PGP Valuation, the country’s largest appraisal firm and (3) PKF, the largest firm of its time specializing in hospitality feasibility and research, strategic advisory service and capital market services.

We hope that you enjoy this publication created by Colliers International - Bradco. We have been publishing it since 1993 and it has become THE source for economic news and facts surrounding the High Desert of

Economic Observation .................. 2Improving Transportation in the Victor Valley ........................... 6Sales Tax Revenue Continue to Grow in the High Desert ........ 7SCLC’s Fifth Industrial Building ... 9Economic Stimulus Package is Good Policy .......................... 10Jobs, Economy Flow from Water ... 11Transportation Projects Make Inroads in the High Desert ... 12Don’t Believe a Two-Handed Economist.............................. 13Inland Empire Film Commission .. 15Victor Valley Ripe for Retail Growth ....................... 16Treasurer - Tax Collector’s Office Update ........................ 17Adelanto City Update ................. 17Town of Apple Valley City Update........................... 19Barstow City Update .................... 21Hesperia City Update .................. 22Dr. Pepper Snapple Group Selects SCLA for New Facility ......... 23

continued on page 14

29697 High Desert Report #43.indd 1 6/27/2008 11:01:05 AM

Page 2: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

High Desert ReportA quarterly economic overview

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

Economic ObservationsBy Dr. Alfred J. Gobar

Chairman, Alfred Gobar Associates

Annualized economic growth in first quarter 2008 was a 0.9 percent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The much talked about recession has not yet started in terms of the classic definition of recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth. If, in fact, those who claim that we are in one of the “worst economic periods in U.S. history” will eventually be vindicated, it is not likely to happen for at least two more quarters; i.e., negative economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2008. Recent national jobs figures indicate loss of jobs nationwide and an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent, which is about the same as the average unemployment rate in the U.S. during the decade of the 1990s and somewhat below the unemployment rate that economists used to consider equivalent to full employment. Some of the frequently-quoted economic gurus are now suggesting we may actually avoid a national recession. Recent public fixation on the concept of recession seems out of sync with the economic disturbances that many older observers may remember from the 1950s, 1960s, 1974-75, the early 1980s, and the

especially severe recession that affected Southern California between 1990 and 1995. Nonetheless, even assuming that the general dislocation nationally is considerably less than popular opinion would have us believe, the situation for the High Desert is of major concern because much of the economic dislocation currently underway is driven by the housing market which is reacting to the circumstances described in the previous newsletter—lax underwriting by loan originators, a generally overpriced housing market, etc. The High Desert’s economy is especially sensitive to housing construction which is a vehicle through which exogenous funds flow from throughout the U.S. into the local economy, re-circulating, providing jobs, incomes etc.

Because of the High Desert’s land resources and its proximity to the huge Southern California economy, its sensitivity to housing cycles is perversely an advantage to land speculators. The low points in the cycle are usually exceptional buying opportunities into a market historically characterized by large percentage increases in land value during Southern California’s housing market peaks; i.e., this period of

economic uncertainty may represent a chance to “reload” for the longer term.

Despite ambiguity regarding the existence or magnitude of a recession nationwide, current economic circumstances are likely to have a decidedly unpleasant short-run effect on the High Desert’s general economy because of the nexus between the local economy and new home construction.

Employment change in Southern California is especially important to the fundamental housing market—even discounting the special circumstances of lax underwriting, subprime loans, etc.—because the High Desert’s housing market continues to be dependent to a large degree on commuters to jobs located “down the hill.” Establishment-based nonagricultural wage and salary employment in the five Southern California counties has been decreasing in recent months on a year-over-year basis. The biggest decreases in absolute numbers have been in construction and financial activities, both of which are related to the housing market correction. In addition, manufacturing employment has continued to decline as part of a secular decline in this sector

THE BRADCO HIGH DESERT REPORTIn conjunction with Colliers International Bradco

Publisher: Mr. Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIORSenior Vice President/Director Colliers International Bradco

Editors: Mrs. Bron Savini and Mr. Lowell DraperP.O. Box 2710, CA 92393-2710

(760) 951-5111 BSN Ext. 100 l (760) 951-5113 FAXwww.TheBradcoCompanies.com l e-mail to: [email protected]

Published Quarterly, Subscription$59.95 Domestic / $79.95 Foreign per year

Postage paid in Victorville, CA l Send address changes to above.Entire contents copyrighted. All rights reserved. Material may not be reproduced in whole or part without permission from

the publisher. Every effort is made to provide reliable information from reputable sources. The publisher assumes noresponsibility for inaccurate information. The Bradco High Desert Report is printed on recycled paper.

2

continued on page 3

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Page 3: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

High Desert ReportA quarterly economic overview

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

3

Economic ObservationsContinued

not only in the United States but also throughout much of the world.

The multiplier effect of decreasing employment in the two sectors most closely associated with housing, as well as continued decrease in employment in manufacturing, causes decreases in professional and business service employment. Newspapers and other print media are experiencing a period of creative destruction resulting in a decline in employment in the information sector. Employment growth in Southern California continues in educational and health services, trade, leisure and hospitality, and state and local government—especially in local

government.

The most recent employment statistics for March 2008 based on the Employer Survey show a decrease in employment in Southern California’s five counties. Another survey—the Household Survey—also shows a decrease. The surveys indicate decreased employment in Southern California overall and, therefore, weakening fundamental demand for housing and a further threat to the High Desert’s economy as a result of its effect on housing demand.

Recent decreases in employment are consistent with a weakening economy but are not severe in historical terms.

Between June 1990 and June 1991, for example, employment in Southern California decreased by almost 200,000 jobs, or more than three times recent annual decrease. Economic fundamentals are not nearly as bad as they were in 1990-95 in Southern California. The key problem is the housing sector and the High Desert economy’s dependence on it.

Building permit activity in Southern California reflects the disarray in the housing market that is the fundamental source of much of the pervasive economic negativism. During the first three

EXHIBIT ARESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT SUMMARY (UNITS)

HIGH DESERT AREA

Jan-08Subarea 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mar-08

AdelantoSingle Family 507 966 542 404 207 151 95 11 0 0 96 327 367 900 1,101 329 307 1Multi-Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 507 966 542 404 207 151 95 11 0 0 96 327 367 900 1,101 329 307 1

Apple ValleySingle Family 232 274 286 156 121 212 215 278 323 277 362 542 641 1,019 1,349 904 149 37Multi-Family 6 10 8 0 0 0 0 96 40 0 0 0 3 0 184 14 16 2______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 238 284 294 156 121 212 215 374 363 277 362 542 644 1,019 1,533 918 165 39

HesperiaSingle Family 392 457 225 261 165 205 216 188 212 210 539 463 1,034 1,478 1,760 1,051 402 8Multi-Family 58 75 0 0 0 0 0 89 0 0 13 0 54 128 222 111 48 66______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 450 532 225 261 165 205 216 277 212 210 552 463 1,088 1,606 1,982 1,162 450 74

VictorvilleSingle Family 675 725 804 534 289 327 152 200 315 390 637 986 2,103 2,699 2,249 3,016 1,090 39Multi-Family 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 116 82 12 0 100 176 82 130 228 459 0______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 735 725 804 534 289 327 152 316 397 402 637 1,086 2,279 2,781 2,379 3,244 1,549 39

Unincorporated North DesertSingle Family 427 352 314 262 221 274 221 340 408 323 362 274 757 1,193 1,222 1,115 556 36Multi-Family 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 18 0 0 0 0______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 427 352 324 262 221 274 221 340 408 323 370 274 757 1,211 1,222 1,115 556 36

SubtotalSingle Family 2,233 2,774 2,171 1,617 1,003 1,169 899 1,017 1,258 1,200 1,996 2,592 4,902 7,289 7,681 6,415 2,504 121Multi-Family 124 85 18 0 0 0 0 301 122 12 21 100 233 228 536 353 523 68______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 2,357 2,859 2,189 1,617 1,003 1,169 899 1,318 1,380 1,212 2,017 2,692 5,135 7,517 8,217 6,768 3,027 189

BarstowSingle Family 30 53 37 5 3 13 9 3 1 0 0 7 2 34 68 48 75 12Multi-Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 0 81 10 0 0 0______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 30 53 37 5 3 13 9 3 1 0 0 88 2 115 78 48 75 12

TotalSingle Family 2,263 2,827 2,208 1,622 1,006 1,182 908 1,020 1,259 1,200 1,996 2,599 4,904 7,323 7,749 6,463 2,579 133Multi-Family 124 85 18 0 0 0 0 301 122 12 21 181 233 309 546 353 523 68______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Total 2,387 2,912 2,226 1,622 1,006 1,182 908 1,321 1,381 1,212 2,017 2,780 5,137 7,632 8,295 6,816 3,102 201

Source: San Bernardino County Land Management Department, Office of Building and Safety; Bureau of the Census - Construction Statistics Division.

continued on page 5

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Page 4: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

High Desert ReportA quarterly economic overview

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

4

Economic ObservationsContinued

continued on page 5

Source: Bureau of the Census-Construction Statistics Division; San Bernardino County Land Management Department, Office of Building and Safety.

EXHIBIT BSINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT UNITS

HIGH DESERT AREA VS. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1980-2008p

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

p

YEAR

SO

UT

HE

RN

CA

LIF

OR

NIA

UN

ITS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000H

IGH

DE

SE

RT

AR

EA

UN

ITS

Southern California High Desert Area

EXHIBIT C

Single Single Average Single Single Average Single Single AverageFamily Family Value Family Family Value Family Family Value

Year Units Value Per Unit Units Value Per Unit Units Value Per Unit

1980 1,549 96,932 62,577 36,495 2,462,827 67,484 4.24 3.94 92.73 1981 1,445 97,343 67,365 26,458 2,226,319 84,145 5.46 4.37 80.06 1982 1,701 112,875 66,358 20,301 1,592,519 78,445 8.38 7.09 84.59 1983 2,750 205,885 74,867 50,170 3,906,504 77,865 5.48 5.27 96.15 1984 2,849 224,301 78,730 61,831 5,100,433 82,490 4.61 4.40 95.44 1985 3,096 245,825 79,401 59,956 5,465,594 91,160 5.16 4.50 87.10 1986 5,447 427,881 78,554 81,173 7,957,760 98,035 6.71 5.38 80.13 1987 3,619 292,063 80,703 74,138 8,062,076 108,744 4.88 3.62 74.21 1988 3,817 326,749 85,604 90,812 11,187,654 123,196 4.20 2.92 69.49 1989 5,469 542,989 99,285 84,200 11,276,373 133,924 6.50 4.82 74.14 1990 3,715 362,813 97,662 44,535 6,421,591 144,192 8.34 5.65 67.73 1991 2,263 202,500 89,483 30,238 4,622,648 152,875 7.48 4.38 58.53 1992 2,827 243,964 86,298 28,990 4,299,526 148,311 9.75 5.67 58.19 1993 2,208 199,365 90,292 26,659 3,905,474 146,497 8.28 5.10 61.63 1994 1,622 150,163 92,579 31,833 4,731,681 148,641 5.10 3.17 62.28 1995 1,006 98,495 97,907 27,985 4,405,337 157,418 3.59 2.24 62.20 1996 1,182 124,052 104,951 31,294 5,153,227 164,671 3.78 2.41 63.73 1997 908 103,713 114,222 38,763 6,727,448 173,553 2.34 1.54 65.81 1998 1,020 125,340 122,882 41,909 7,679,776 183,249 2.43 1.63 67.06 1999 1,259 166,334 132,116 48,229 9,493,871 196,850 2.61 1.75 67.11 2000 1,200 164,103 136,752 46,547 9,663,649 207,611 2.58 1.70 65.87 2001 1,996 281,349 140,956 50,228 10,223,147 203,535 3.97 2.75 69.25 2002 2,599 373,568 143,735 56,241 11,290,341 200,749 4.62 3.31 71.60 2003 4,904 737,629 150,414 64,435 12,767,236 198,141 7.61 5.78 75.91 2004 7,323 1,242,745 169,704 71,574 14,788,067 206,612 10.23 8.40 82.14 2005 7,749 1,401,937 180,918 72,360 15,687,463 216,797 10.71 8.94 83.45 2006 6,463 1,175,876 181,940 53,353 11,818,776 221,520 12.11 9.95 82.13 2007 2,579 606,363 235,115 29,662 5,905,839 199,105 8.69 10.27 118.09 2008p 133 43,490 326,992 3,517 865,044 245,961 3.78 5.03 132.94

* Includes the cities of Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia, Victorville and Barstow. Also includes the Unincorporated North Desert area.

Note: Final figures when available are not expected to show major differences from preliminary numbers shown.

Source: Bureau of the Census-Construction Statistics Division; San Bernardino County Land Management Department; Office of Building and Safety;

Construction Industry Research Board; Alfred Gobar Associates.

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT TRENDSHIGH DESERT AREA, CALIFORNIA

High Desert Area* Southern California of Southern CaliforniaHigh Desert As A Percentage

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Page 5: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

High Desert ReportA quarterly economic overview

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

5

months of 2008, the total number of new units authorized by permit in Southern California (8,392 units) was off over 50.0 percent from the year earlier figure and off over 66.0 percent for the same period of 2006. The decline in building permit activity for new single-family units was even more dramatic. During the first three months of 2008, the decline over the comparable period of 2007 was 62.3 percent. The number of new single-family units authorized by permit in the first three months of 2008 in Southern California was off almost 77.0 percent from the same period of 2006.

Building permit data for the High Desert show that during the first three months of 2008, a total of 201 new housing units were authorized, of which 133 were single-family homes and 68 were in multi-family housing. Data for the first three months annualized on a linear basis suggest a total of 804 new units for the entire year, which would be less

Economic ObservationsContinued

than the comparable totals for the High Desert in any year shown in Exhibit A. The projected level for 2008 is down 90.0 percent from the comparable figure of 2005 and off 75.0 percent from 2007.

Building permit value per unit (a proxy for target price of new housing being authorized for construction) shows a decline in average target price for new single-family units in most areas in the High Desert, except for Victorville and Barstow. The twelve new units authorized for construction in Barstow in the first three months of 2008 had a particularly high average permit value per unit.

Building permit activity for single-family housing development for the High Desert and Southern California overall are illustrated graphically in Exhibit B. The decline in activity associated with the 1990 recession was not as dramatic as the most recent decline despite the

substantially more severe nature of the 1990 recession related as it was to the restructuring of Southern California’s aerospace industry.

Tabulations in Exhibit C show that currently the High Desert accounts for a sharply decreasing—more so than in the case of the 1990 recession—percentage of new single-family units authorized in Southern California.

Nonresidential development as indicated by building permit activity continues to be fairly strong on the High Desert, reflecting the lag between residential construction and nonresidential development, which is a response to the potential for increased population related to previous residential construction. Building permit activity for retail development on the High Desert in 2007 significantly exceeded the comparable figure for any of the prior years tabulated

EXHIBIT DNONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT VALUATIONS ($000s)

HIGH DESERT AREA

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1/08-03/08

AdelantoRetail 147 0 0 0 0 300 2,960 350 1,538 1,029 5,633 2,030 984 400 7,450 5,295 2,280 11,556 3,437Office 0 26 34 0 0 0 0 157 0 0 0 624 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Industrial 8,070 8,247 6,213 1,442 5,047 1,101 0 1,844 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,560 0 0

Apple ValleyRetail 12,549 348 478 402 4,542 0 4,597 734 3,407 2,518 303 3,463 29,236 1,043 1,121 20,012 21,377 13,918 2,927Office 3,814 0 0 1,364 955 179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,000 0 0Industrial 0 252 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HesperiaRetail 2,548 5,706 503 1,271 2,371 1,461 11,920 995 3,375 764 1,666 3,407 571 9,437 3,720 2,252 23,776 43,354 4,731Office 626 2,751 2,039 385 2,128 0 990 0 215 0 0 1,601 0 761 2,316 1,557 14,279 4,837 2,025Industrial 1,882 217 0 1,684 0 567 214 1,192 889 1,331 1,952 1,798 3,142 375 0 3,181 2,927 5,510 767

VictorvilleRetail 22,825 19,315 10,982 8,817 5,096 4,149 4,895 4,624 1,188 3,248 32,814 23,337 17,298 8,937 5,205 12,712 2,820 4,043 1,156Office 6,006 4,506 4,913 46 1,143 240 1,414 1,708 3,268 1,728 1,987 480 4,363 3,539 4,258 2,181 4,137 7,953 0Industrial 8 59 0 0 59 0 0 51 1,798 127 0 643 12,511 568 67,733 0 0 30,566 25,685

Unincorporated North DesertRetail+Office 4,000 2,314 1,921 1,781 559 1,726 985 3,107 2,610 2,174 1,852 1,164 905 1,918 2,036 4,051 1,179 1,598 1,735Industrial 12,924 4,461 2,588 13,929 3,667 14,212 4,457 7,785 1,385 813 4,536 985 963 280 50 1,889 59,828 15,810 3,000

SubtotalRetail* 42,070 27,683 13,883 12,271 12,568 7,635 25,358 9,809 12,119 9,733 42,268 33,400 48,995 21,735 19,532 44,322 51,432 74,469 13,986Office 10,446 7,283 6,985 1,795 4,226 419 2,404 1,865 3,482 1,728 1,987 2,705 4,363 4,300 6,574 3,738 21,417 12,790 2,025Industrial 22,884 13,236 8,822 17,055 8,773 15,880 4,671 10,873 4,072 2,271 6,488 3,426 16,616 1,223 67,783 5,070 68,315 51,886 29,452

BarstowRetail 817 0 10,965 5,559 5,728 166 894 251 1,361 3,781 1,128 1,812 190 725 180 400 7,618 5,743 3,350Office 0 0 0 0 0 0 227 259 100 301 200 352 0 0 343 0 0 0 0Industrial 31 0 0 0 1,152 0 0 3,634 2,427 1,195 0 760 4,363 0 0 0 4,316 0 0

TotalRetail 42,887 27,683 24,848 17,829 18,295 7,801 26,252 10,060 13,480 13,514 43,396 35,212 49,185 22,460 19,712 44,722 59,051 80,213 17,336Office 10,446 7,283 6,985 1,795 4,226 419 2,631 2,124 3,582 2,028 2,187 3,057 4,363 4,300 6,917 3,738 21,417 12,790 2,025Industrial 22,915 13,236 8,822 17,055 9,926 15,880 4,671 14,507 6,499 3,466 6,488 4,186 20,979 1,223 67,783 5,070 72,631 51,886 29,452

San Bernardino CountyRetail 214,241 151,897 82,529 94,358 99,706 149,353 101,937 112,255 162,472 185,840 134,185 184,602 161,690 229,890 180,449 235,491 297,276 297,276 61,715Office 66,974 34,868 22,294 16,080 24,067 31,789 9,445 12,414 21,810 15,838 15,369 20,208 28,791 60,688 83,840 84,843 115,457 115,457 6,416Industrial 170,834 125,582 38,522 36,040 56,622 68,560 86,707 188,716 209,002 331,039 404,568 330,928 243,003 241,743 435,579 321,773 372,801 372,801 39,728

*Includes Unincorporated North Desert retail and office valuations.

Source: Bureau of the Census - Construction Statistics Division; Construction Industry Research Board.

continued on page 6

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Page 6: 43rd Edition of the Bradco High Desert Report

High Desert ReportA quarterly economic overview

The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

6

in Exhibit D, reflecting the large amount of retail development authorized by permit in Hesperia in 2007. Permits for retail development were issued in all High Desert areas during the first three months of 2008, as shown.

Obviously, incentive to develop new nonresidential facilities will be reduced as housing development and sales on the High Desert diminish as we work our way out of the housing market correction.

Elements in the High Desert’s economy that relate to population growth, housing construction, etc., are likely to feel substantial pain over the next few months. On the positive side, however, one of the major long-term problems of the housing industry in Southern California is the discontinuity between price and income. Correction of this dislocation will probably result in the High Desert reemerging as one of the few places in Southern California where cost-effective, suitably-priced new homes can be developed for first-time homebuyers and other value-conscious consumers because of this area’s huge land resources. A famous economist one quipped…”in the long run we will all be dead.” The long run in this case, however, is not likely to be quite so traumatic for most of us.

Land investors who sold in 2005 and 2006 are probably vacationing in some exotic place waiting to step back into the market in the next six to eighteen months to repeat the cycle characteristic of this region for much of the 100 years that the Gobar family has been investing in land in this interesting area.

Dr. Alfred J. GobarChairman, Alfred Gobar Associates

300 S Harbor Blvd., Suite 900Anaheim, CA 92805-3721(714) 772-8900, Ext. 309

www.gobar.comEmail: [email protected]

Economic ObservationsContinued

Improving Transportation in the Victor ValleyBy Darin Cooke

Caltrans Public Affairs (District 8)

The High Desert economy continues to grow. With this, the need to build and maintain its freeway system has become quite a challenge. The cooperation between federal, state, county, and local agencies has made this possible.

There are several projects throughout the Victor Valley from the beginning stages of construction all the way to the end. These projects are located on the United States 395 (US-395), State Route 58 (SR-58), State Route 18 (SR-18), Interstate 15 (I-15), and Interstate 40 (I-40).

The US-395 is a major interregional route with high volumes of truck traffic. This route has seen a steady regional growth over the years and has had a significant negative impact on traffic operations. A project to improve the 44-mile stretch of roadway beginning from Interstate15 to two miles north of State Route 58 is underway. This project is in its beginning phases and environmental studies will continue until 2011.

State Route 58 has seen its fair share of traffic. A project is underway which consists of 12 miles of joint seal Portland concrete cement and asphalt concrete pavement, between Barstow (I-15) and Kramer Junction (US 395). The joint seals on the existing Portland concrete cement have deteriorated. The preventative project is to help seal cracks in order to prevent water from penetrating through the base. This type of preventative maintenance project will help prolong the life of the pavement.

Another heavily traveled roadway is State Route 18 (SR-18). SR-18 is a main artery branching off State Route 138 in Los Angeles County and runs through the Victor Valley and into the San Bernardino Mountains. This route continues to see construction that will

improve the operational safety to the traveling public.

A 30-mile pavement rehabilitation project on Interstate 40 began in the spring of 2008. The location of the project is significant to the Victor Valley region due to the distance of roadway and the effect on motorists traveling to and from Arizona and Nevada. Caltrans will rehabilitate the highway from 10 miles east of Kelbaker Road to 20 miles west of United States 95 (US-95). The work will include new asphalt paving, wider shoulders, improved drainage, up-graded guardrail, and rumble strip installation.

One of the most traveled routes not only in the Victor Valley region but also leading from the Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange and the Inland Empire Counties is Interstate 15. Interstate 15 is a major transportation route from Southern California to Nevada and beyond. Interstate 15 is seeing many different projects right now. A major project just completed was the Mojave Drive bridge widening. This project provided a solution for the traffic deficiencies by improving traffic circulation through the Mojave Drive interchange and improving operations for traffic transitioning from La Paz to Village Drive in Victorville.

Caltrans would like to thank motorists for their continued patience on all the major travel ways through Victor Valley and other High Desert improvement projects. Caltrans asks that motorists please be aware of the construction area and always make a point to SLOW FOR THE CONE ZONE. If you are interested in signing up for email distribution on all highway updates, please email your request to Public Affairs on its website at www.caltrans8.info and go to “CT Connect”.

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of Equalization. More taxes will not encourage our economy to come out of this rut. Stripping Californians of more money will actually drive our economy farther down this ever pressing road to a recession. Regardless of what some may say, keeping money in the hands of the consumers will always drive them to purchase goods and services. This will help drive up sales on goods they do pay taxes on, and since every city gets back 0.75% of the Bradley Burn tax, this will continue to help fund your thriving cities.

The Bradley Burns percentage comes from the taxes paid on services and

products purchased in each city and county, the Sales and Use tax, which is different for some counties. The good people of the High Desert area have a tax rate of 7.75%. Figure 9 from the Legislative Analysts Office and chart 3 for purposes of this article breaks this down for you.

The Sales and Use tax is the General Fund’s second largest revenue source, accounting for 28 percent of estimated total revenues in 2008-09. The biggest part is the sales tax. As you may know, sales taxes are applied to retail sales of tangible goods sold in California. Some

With endless news reports about the national economic slowdown, there’s a bright spot out of San Bernardino County in 2007

If you look at chart 1, you will notice how most of the sales revenues generated by San Bernardino County cities have slightly increased over the past year.

California sales tax laws were constructed in a manner that promotes purchasing, specifically limiting what is taxed to avoid situations in which some products may be double taxed. I will continue my fight to maintain a strict limit on what we tax here at the Board

Sales Tax Revenue Continue to Grow in the High DesertBy Michelle Steel

State Board of Equalization 3rd District

continued on page 8

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Sales Tax Revenue Continue to Grow in the High DesertContinued

law makers would like to extend these taxes to non-tangible goods, such as downloadable music on the internet. I am deeply opposed to this unnecessary extension and have been fighting for the right not to be overtaxed in this regard. Chart 4 shows how taxes are distributed and then reallocated back to the taxpayer and ultimately the consumer.

Taxable sales for California are shown in figure 10 from the Legislative Analysts Office, and chart 5 for the purposes of this article.

Chart 5 shows that taxable sale generally experienced strong growth in 2004 and 2005, but took a dive in 2006 as the economy slowed. Then, in 2007, the Legislative Analysts Office states growth

maintained at 0.8 percent. This slow growth has been especially driven by the decline in California’s real estate market and it adverse impact on sales of building materials, home furnishings, and related household items. However, it also is related to the negative impacts of higher gasoline prices on consumer spending on big-ticket items, particularly light vehicles sales (cars, smaller trucks and SUVs).

Compared to the state, San Bernardino has stayed pretty steady in its sales of goods and services, which means a steady rate of return of sales tax brought back by the Bradley Burns 1% tax; this is also called the Uniform Local Rate of 1 percent tax rate levied by all counties. Of this total, 0.25 percent is deposited into county transportation funds and 0.75 percent is given to the city and county governments for programs and other

general purposes. Since San Bernardino county has remained very stable in its sales history, this indicates that it is holding its own in this difficult economic time and must be commended.

The second component of the SUT—the use tax—is imposed on products bought from out–of–state firms by California residents and businesses for use in this state, with the exception of purchases of vessels, vehicles, and aircraft (which must be registered). Use tax is not a very large component. The Legislative Analysts Office forecasts that the Sales and Use receipts will increase 0.3 percent from last year. Revenues from this are projected to be up 5.4% from this year in 2008-09, and up 4.7% in 2009-2010. We are not back to where we were 5 years ago, but increases are better than decreases. If we started to cut our spending even more and lower taxes, things could begin to turn around even quicker.

Take solace in the fact that this economic slow down is taking a turn for the better. San Bernardino County and its inlaying cities are playing a large role in that positive turn around. I will always fight for the taxpayer and maintain an iron fist approach to double taxation in the State of California.

ISU Insurance Services Ryan McEachron ARMAC Agency President/CEO Lic. # 0C26179

One Responsible Source™ For ALL Your Insurance Needs

17177 Yuma Street Phone: (760) 241-7900 Victorville, CA 92395 www.isu-armac.com

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distribution building located on 17.48 acres. The facility is under construction with completion anticipated for May of 2008.

“Upon completion of Southern California Logistics Centre, approximately 24,000 jobs will be created and another 18,500 supporting jobs in the surrounding area will be generated,” said Terry Caldwell, City of Victorville Mayor and Southern California Logistics Airport Authority Chairman. “The public/private partnership the City has established with Stirling has been a tremendous success. We both share a common vision of making SCLC the largest fully integrated commercial development in the region bringing more than $3 billion a year in economic activity to the Inland Empire region upon completion.”

Global Access Victorville

Global Access Victorville, the former George Air Force Base in Victorville, Calif., is an 8,500-acre multimodal freight transportation hub supported by air, ground, and rail connections. Global Access Victorville is comprised of Southern California Logistics Airport (SCLA), a 2,500-acre world-class air cargo and aviation facility; Southern California Logistics Centre (SCLC), a 2,500-acre commercial and industrial complex entitled for 60 million square feet of development; and Southern California Rail Complex (SCRC), a planned 3,500-acre intermodal and multimodal complex entailing rail-served facilities.

Massive Facility Will be the Fifth Industrial Building Constructed Within SCLC’s Planned 6.5 Million SF Phase 1 Development; Nearly

2 Million SF of Property to be Delivered by Late 2008By Brian Parno

Stirling Capital Investments

Stirling Capital Investments has commenced construction on a one million-square-foot speculative Class A industrial facility situated on approximately 46 acres at Southern California Logistics Centre (SCLC) in Victorville, Calif. The completion of the building is anticipated in December 2008 and will join four other buildings at SCLC, bringing a total of nearly two million square feet of property to the market by the end of this year. The five buildings are part of Phase I development plans, which total 6.5 million square feet of industrial space over 350 acres of land.

“We remain bullish on the long-term growth of the Southern California industrial market and are confident users will be attracted to the economic benefits that SCLC offers,” said Brian Parno, vice president of Stirling Capital Investments, the master developer of SCLC. “With an abundant amount of land at SCLC, we have a unique opportunity to provide large format buildings with excess truck capacity. Therefore, this facility was a logical choice to launch the next wave of

development. SCLC is a proven solution for distribution companies looking for a strong cost advantage.”

The one million-square-foot distribution facility will be a “green building” and is registered for LEED Certification. The facility will feature 32’ clear height, 179 dock doors, concrete truck courts from 185’ to 405’, 328 parking stalls, approximately 405 additional trailer parking spaces, ESFR sprinklers, fenced yard, and three percent skylights. The building is expected to generate up to 200 new jobs. In addition to this one million-square-foot building, Phase I development at SCLC includes:

• Newell Rubbermaid’s new408,000-square-foot West Coast distribution facility, which was occupied in October 2007. • Two multi-tenant industrialbuildings, totaling approximately 224,000 square feet. The multi-tenant facilities were completed in March of 2008 and offer suites from 3,500 square feet to more than 60,000 square feet.• A 296,000-square-foot Class A

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Economic Stimulus Package is Good Public PolicyBy Frank Williams

CEO, Building Industry Association, Baldy View Chapter

All parts of our county today are feeling the pinch of the economic recession we currently face, and residents of San Bernardino County are no exception. High gas prices, mounting job losses in various sectors, coupled with the housing market crisis all contribute to the pocketbook challenges that families face today.

The housing crisis in San Bernardino County is particularly bad news for our local economy. The jobs created from direct construction and related employment, such as suppliers, subcontractors, lenders and realtors, all suffer during a housing slump. Inevitably, new commercial development will also slow as well since new retail follows rooftops. The housing recession hurts us all because it not only results in increased unemployment but also means significantly less sales tax revenue will be generated for local government to use for quality of life services.

Put another way, a 2004 study by Dr. John Husing highlighting the economic benefits of new residential development to San Bernardino County found that over 70,000 new jobs and $3 billion in revenue were a direct result of new home construction. Sadly, it is likely that these annual economic contributions during the housing boom are all but eliminated in our current housing recession.

Fortunately, local government leaders in San Bernardino County are responding to this crisis by implementing an economic stimulus package – a growing trend of temporary policies seeking to jumpstart new home construction in hopes of sparking economic growth. The boldest of these policy decisions to date was made on May 14th, when the Victorville City Council voted to

reduce single family and multi-family development impact fees through the end of the year – from approximately $11,300 to $4,900.

Also the city already offered the option to defer payment of the fees from prior to construction to fee payment near the close of escrow. The fee deferment decreases the burden of upfront costs by easing the sum amount of construction loans builders will need, which ultimately make their way to the end sales price. The approach to defer payment of fees toward the end of construction is a policy approach also embraced in a variety of cities, including San Bernardino, Chino Hills and Ontario.

Victorville’s decision followed a recent study from the Rose Institute highlighting the economic benefits of a temporary fee reduction. Specifically, the analysis of Victorville’s local economy revealed each new home built in the city generates $230 per capita in new sales tax revenue. The study also concluded a temporary reduction in some fees could have a major impact on construction – which could increase local income, employment, and tax revenue, and might even increase the total volume of fees collected.

Avoiding fee increases for new home construction remains the cornerstone component of the economic stimulus package. An increasing number of cities are opting to delay proposed fee increases for the next 12 months in hopes of jumpstarting their respective housing markets. Emphatic support of this approach was also evident at a regional level earlier this month when SANBAG voted 28-1 to allow each city in San Bernardino County the

option to decide whether to keep traffic fees at its current levels rather than a previously proposed across the board 12.9% increase. Similarly, in Riverside County, WRCOG voted earlier this year not to have an annual Construction Cost Index (CCI) adjustment to keep the current traffic fee structure.

The Building Industry Association Baldy View Chapter urges each city to consider the implications of the Rose Institute’s Victorville study and adopt its recommendation of a temporary fee reduction. Clearly, the economic benefits of a fee reduction transcend Victorville and would also apply in other jurisdictions. The more local government continues the trend to support the policy approach of an economic stimulus package the more likely we will move out of our recession and begin the road to economic recovery.

10

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two storage tanks, more than 67,000 feet of collection and conveyance pipeline, and five production wells. R3 will allow Mojave Water Agency (MWA) to store water from the State Water Project for use during future water shortages. Water imported from the State Water Project will be of high quality and exceed all federal and state health and safety standards. R3 also includes new pipelines that link to existing infrastructure. These new connections will provide a new source of supply for most of Victor Valley’s water providers.

Funding for the R3 project will be provided by the Mojave Water Agency, participating local water providers, and funds from Proposition 50, a water bond approved in 2002. The project is currently in the preliminary design phase. MWA is working with its partners to determine site locations and layout so the project can employ the most advanced design and technology available.

For more information about the R3 project, please call (760) 243-9394 or visit the R3 project web site at www.r3project.com.

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Policy for the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation.

Water is already making an impact on economic growth. Earlier this year, Eastern Municipal Water District put nine residential and industrial projects in western Riverside County on hold until the district could determine if it could provide service as required by tate law. Eastern Municipal has since issued letters of service, which sent a clear message: If there is no water, there is no economic growth.Putting this into dollar terms, “the availability of water directly and indirectly affects 54 percent of Southern California’s $912 billion economic output,” Freeman said.

If water stunts economic growth, our residents will continue to have to seek employment down the hill and spend their days on the freeway instead of in their communities.

So how do we meet our growing water needs when demand is outpacing our ability to recharge our groundwater supplies?

Mojave Water Agency and a group of regional stakeholders have spent the past five years developing a portfolio of regional water management projects that will help ensure a sustainable water supply for our region. An essential part of this portfolio is the Regional Recharge and Recovery Project, also known as “R3.” R3 is a regional project that will not only recharge our region’s groundwater supplies but also enables the region to capture water for future use.

R³ is comprised of two pump stations,

If there was one key message that came out of the 2008 Mojave Water Issues Briefing on April 9, it was the need to secure a safe, clean, reliable water supply to meet the growing demands of our region.

Unfortunately, the outlook for securing water is not so bright. State water officials have warned water agencies throughout California to expect about a third of their normal allotment of water from Northern California this year.

Efforts to save the endangered Delta smelt have prompted legal action to limit supplies from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The Sierra snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, is shrinking due to our warming climate and prolonged drought.

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing our water supply, however, is population growth. During the first half of this decade, the High Desert has seen tremendous growth. San Bernardino County as a whole added 192,100 in population from 2000 to 2006.

Much of that growth isn’t from immigration or migration from out of state but from residents moving from county to county and from existing residents having children.

“Increasingly, population growth in Southern California is being driven by people already here. Making sure we have water to accommodate that growth, therefore, is really about making sure our children and grandchildren have access to adequate water supplies,” said Gregory Freeman, Vice President of Economics and

Jobs, Economy Flow from WaterBy Mike Stevens

Mojave Water Agency

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As the transportation planning authority for San Bernardino County, San Bernardino Associated Governments, (SANBAG) seeks federal, state, and local funding, does long-range transportation planning, and oversees implementation and contruction of transportation-related projects.

CTC Announces Funding of STIP

SANBAG has been working with the California Transportation Commission (CTC) to secure funding for numerous transportation projects, including several planned in the High Desert. After considerable analysis, the CTC announced in late May its final decisions for the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) Funding. SANBAG did well in the process, considering the financial challenges facing the State of California.

The CTC reaffirmed the $250 million previously allocated through STIP towards the $700 million reconstruction and widening project on the I-215 through San Bernardino, which is a gateway to the High Desert. Additionally, $64 million in funding was approved for the Barton Road Interchange at the I-215 in Grand Terrace.

The Ranchero Road Interchange in the City of Hesperia had received STIP funding previously but received an additional $8 million in this round of funding. Unfortunately, the Ranchero project was moved back to 2012-13, later than originally requested, because of lack of funding capacity in STIP.

Ranchero Road Interchange

The proposed Ranchero Road Interchange at Interstate 15 is located in the City of Hesperia in the High Desert, approximately 1.78 miles north of the existing Oak Hills Road Overcrossing

and approximately 1.42 miles from the existing US-395 Connection Overcrossing.

The Ranchero Road Interchange will include the construction of ramps to serve four entrance and exit moves, construction of a new overcrossing structure at the I-15 freeway to provide east/west connections, and realignment of the frontage roads—Caliente Road and Mariposa Road—on either side of the freeway.

East-west mobility and access to and from I-15 are among the most significant transportation deficiencies within the Victor Valley. The interchange will provide congestion relief to the Main Street interchange, approximately 2 miles north. In addition, construction of the Ranchero Road interchange will provide improved access to residents of southern Hesperia and the County of San Bernardino. The new interchange would improve safety from traffic that stacks up not only at area surface streets but also on the mainline freeway from travelers attempting to exit these ramps.

Kramer Junction in Mojave Desert

More good CTC news was announced regarding funding to bring State Route 58 (SR-58) up to a 2-lane expressway near Kramer Junction, between Barstow and Bakersfield in the Mojave Desert. This project was submitted by Caltrans and funded in the amount of $119 million. The expansion of SR-58 is needed for three reasons. First, increased capacity is needed. The existing infrastructure cannot meet the current demands placed on it, let alone the increased demands of the future. Second, safety concerns were raised on this stretch of highway. Accident rates, including fatality rates, are significantly higher than the average state accident and fatality rates. Finally, increased route continuity would be

Transportation Projects Make Inroads in the High DesertSANBAG

continued on page 14

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achieved by this project. By expanding SR-58, it would then come one step closer to being a continuous expressway between the Kern/San Bernardino county line and Interstate 15 (see map below).

I-15 Truck Lane Project near Stateline

At the June 2008 SANBAG Board Meeting, Caltrans District 8 presented a simulated construction video of Caltrans’ $87 million pavement rehabilitation and truck lane project on Interstate 15 near the California/Nevada Stateline (see map below). The video gave a time speed look at how northbound and southbound lanes would be constructed. Improvements along the 10-mile stretch of freeway will include: a new northbound truck descending lane, addition of stronger pavement to the existing southbound truck lane, widened shoulders on all sides, improved ramps, smoother driving surface, upgraded guardrail, and improved drainage.

The project started in spring 2008 and will be completed by summer 2010. Through an active community outreach program, Caltrans is informing motorists about night-time lane reductions in the work zones. This could result in

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At the peak of prices, during the first quarter of 2006, the average price for a new detached home sold in the High Desert was $376,048. Now, during the first quarter of 2008, that price has dropped to $283,468—a 25% decrease. Similarly, prices in all of San Bernardino County saw a dip of 23% during the same time frame—from $510,032 to $393,284.

At about the time of peak sales volume, during the first quarter of 2005, there were 1,092 new detached homes sold in the High Desert. Now, in the first quarter of 2008, there were only 400 homes sold—a 63 percent

drop in volume. But compared to the county as a whole, which had 3,020 homes sold in the first quarter of 2005 and only 835 sold in the first quarter of 2008, the High Desert was slightly better (a 63 percent drop vs. a 72 percent drop county-wide). As a result, the High Desert share of total county sales actually increased, from 36 percent in the first quarter of 2005 to 48 percent in the most recent full

quarter of this year.

As the Two-Handed Economist would say, on the other hand, perhaps the strangest comparison (counter to conventional wisdom) is found in the relationship between the average price per square foot and the High Desert’s market share compared to the whole county. Since the first quarter of 2004, and maybe before,

the differential in price-per-square-foot (High Desert compared to full county) has shown an inverse relationship to the High Desert’s market share. In other words, when the High Desert’s price is much lower

It is often said that a skilled economist can use statistics to support one side of an argument, and can use those same statistics to support the other side of that same argument. In today’s troubled economic times, we can find many examples of this strange phenomenon.

Many housing experts claim that markets farthest from job centers will be the first and fastest to slow in an economic downturn. But after this slowdown, they’ll have to make an exception for the High Desert, since new home prices and sales trends have essentially mirrored those of San Bernardino County overall. Looking at several factors, including average price and sales volume, the High Desert is taking the housing slowdown at the same pace as the rest of the county. And with what is still the lowest price per square foot out of all of the Inland Empire, the High Desert maintains its position as the best-valued submarket.

Don’t Believe a Two-Handed EconomistBy Robert Reicher, Principal, Market Profiles, Inc.

continued on page 14

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Southern California.If we can be of any further assistance, please feel free to call us at 760 951-5111. If you wish to be a subscriber to The Bradco High Desert Report please contact Mrs. Bron Savini at 760 951-5111 Ext. 100. For those who need more detailed information about the High Desert region please contact Ms. Amber Allen at 760 951-5111 Ext 110 to receive a free copy of our 100 page report entitled “Harnessing Information”.

We are grateful for the opportunity to showcase Colliers International-Bradco in this publication. I look forward to working with you in the upcoming years!

Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIORSenior Vice President/ Director for the

High DesertColliers International Bradco

than the county’s, its market share tends to shrink. Following this logic to its extreme, maybe Victor Valley homebuilders should raise their prices when they want to capture more of the county’s sales.Housing experts and economists typically rely on one or more data trends to forecast activity, but one prediction on which they almost never seem to agree is the expected length of this downturn. If the current sales pace is any indication, then the High Desert new home market could be back to normal inventory levels before the end of 2008. There are currently 86 active single family projects in the High Desert, selling at a combined average of 32 homes per week. Assuming that no additional phases are released at these projects and no new projects are opened, it would take approximately five months to sell through the current inventory of 645 unsold homes.

travel delays for the next two years. Caltrans has been working closely with Nevada Department of Transportation and the Las Vegas Conventions and Visitors’ Authority to coordinate public outreach.

The improved Truck Descending Lane is intended to improve operations and safety by separating the slower moving trucks from passenger vehicles.

Numerous other High Desert transportation projects are in the planning and/or environmental study phase. For the latest information on current projects, go to: www.sanbag.ca.gov

Don’t Believe a Two-Handed Economist

Continued

Transportation Projects Make Inroads inthe High Desert

Continued

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W Magazine, Suzuki Escudo, Polaris, TJ Max, Hans-Joachim Richtar, Bridgestone and Daily Mail – Sunday Magazine to name a few. Music videos love the vast desert vistas especially “The Republic Tigers”, “Lady Tran”, “Rev Theory” and “Forever Running.” Thirteen other productions also used the First District for everything from Documentary/Industrial to Student Films.

So you can see – we are holding our own but we must work together to keep California’s Signature Industry filming in California. We cover a lot of territory and couldn’t do it without our car sponsor – Victorville Motors. So invite us to share all of the incentive information from around the country and world or California’s lack of incentives and we’ll be there. Now you can see how important our car sponsor is to the success of the IEFC and filming in District 1. Thank you Mario!

If you want to contact us, please email [email protected]. Get involved, make your voice count….after all that is what America is all about!

situation much better than we can…Invite us to your meetings, set up a meeting with your city representatives – we’ll be there. Together – WE can stop this flood of production and jobs exiting the state.

Having said all of this – the First District of San Bernardino has done well the first part of 2008 and we will do even better after we are able to have the new BLM locations to market. Thank you Supervisor Mitzelfelt for your support.

We had seven feature films of note with the largest feature being Universal Pictures’ Land of the Lost.

The region enjoyed 5 TV shows from National Geographic’s Zoos to MTV’s 52 Bands. Commercials always love the desert and 18 production companies found just the right look. These commercials ran the gamut from “Killing Rommel” a Doubleday Book Promotion to car commercials for Lincoln, Honda, Mercedes Benz to fashion commercials for Target and Tommy Hilfiger.

Also 29 still photographers discovered the diversity of locations within the region. Some of the products were for

The writer’s strike ended several months ago but it will take several more months before production and the jobs that go with it return to normal levels…..but, of course, that is assuming there is no actors strike.

A number of film offices in association with the California Film Commission and a number of unions have been pushing unsuccessfully for a California Tax Credit since 1998. California is currently in a bidding war with other states and nations that offer incentives – some as high as 41% of expenditures. Even “Terminator 4” after offering the governor a cameo role, decided to film in New Mexico when the governor declined the offer unless the movie was filmed in California. The production company will save $12 million dollars by using New Mexico incentives.

California is forgetting the loss of BILLIONS of dollars and thousand of skilled workers in the aerospace industry and handing them over to other states happy to receive this expensive gift. It appears that we may be doomed to repeat the tragedy of the aerospace industry of the 1980s.

I don’t know about you but the Inland Empire Film Commission isn’t willing to lose this industry without a fight. A grass roots effort can be started by writing our legislators. They need to realize that tax incentives take no money from the taxpayers or the state….if a production or studio and its money, goes to another state – then the state of California has 0% economic benefit from that production company…..This is “found Money.”

The IEFC would like to meet with any groups that are willing to get involved…we have a video that explains the

Inland Empire Film CommissionSheri Davis

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Explosive population growth in the Victor Valley region of San Bernardino County has created a need for more than 2.5 million square feet of additional retail space in the area, according to an analysis by veteran economist Dr. John Husing.

The population growth in the area has generated a corresponding boost in the amount of money available in the region for spending on retail sales. More than $2.09 billion in the High Desert is expected to be spent each year in areas of the economy that support additional retail growth, the study found.

Dr. Husing of Redlands, California, has studied the economy of Inland Southern California for decades. Widely regarded as an expert on economic events in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, Dr. Husing has been recognized by the Los Angeles Times as one of the 100 most influential people in Southern California.

Through an intensive examination of local, state, and federal data, Dr. Husing documented how the wave of economic growth that has pushed across Southern California has now crested in such High Desert communities as Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, and Adelanto and in surrounding unincorporated areas of San Bernardino County.

“This phenomenon hit the valley portions of the Inland Empire in the late 1970s and has begun to saturate the available land in large swaths

of that area,” Husing said in the study. “That is why the High Desert has become Southern California’s principal new high growth center.”

Dr. Husing’s research shows how, from 2000-2007, the region’s population increased by more than 120,000 people and now is expected to exceed 425,000 by mid-2012. As a result, the total taxable sales in the region more than doubled to more than $3.32 billion during the same period, while payroll in the area increased from $1.56 billion to $2.69 billion.

All that growth in population and spending power has resulted in a shortage of developed retail in the High Desert, Husing found. He documented how the region is capable of supporting more than 8.25 million square feet of retail space but has a deficit of 2.56 million square feet. The region is home to only about 5.69 million square feet, which includes several recently opened projects, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, WinCo Foods, Stater Bros, and Super Target.

The study results are not a surprise for those who have watched the Victor Valley’s population soar in the past few years and, with it, the need for additional shopping opportunities for residents.

Dr. Husing’s analysis confirms what Victor Valley residents have known for years there is a need for more retail in the Victor Valley. Victor Valley residents are tired of driving long distances to shop and welcome

Victor Valley Ripe for Retail GrowthBy Brad Mitzelfelt, 1st District Supervisor

County of San Bernardino

the opportunity to shop locally at new retailers.

Growth in the area is expected to continue into the next two decades. The Southern California Association of Governments, the foremost planning agency in the region, predicts that the High Desert will be home to 459,472 people by 2015 and 525,393 by 2020.That population growth makes the High Desert the growth center for a county that already ranks as the fastest growing region in California and fifth fastest in the nation. In addition, incomes are projected to rise at a higher rate in the High Desert than elsewhere in the county.

That combination serves retailers and retail developers with the vision to identify a clear opportunity to enter a relatively young but well established market.

Brad Mitzelfelt represents the Victor Valley on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors.

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Treasurer - Tax Collector’s Office UpdateBy Dick Larson

Through the years, our expert and conservative investment of the county’s investment pool has led to significant revenue for the county while guaranteeing that public funds have remained safe. Last fiscal year, we yielded over $166 million in investment earnings. This is important because our investment pool is the cornerstone of San Bernardino County’s economy. It is made up of current and future funding for all of the county’s school districts, community college districts, county departments, and special districts, such as water districts.

To find out more, to view ratings for our investment pool or to read commentaries from our rating agencies, you can visit www.MyTaxCollector.com.

San Bernardino County Investment Pool Achieves Highest Rating, Is

Among the Best in the State

I am pleased to report that once again San Bernardino County’s $4.7 billion investment pool is among one of the best in the state. In May, Standard and Poor’s (S & P) released its 2008 survey of California Investment Pools, giving San Bernardino County its highest rating possible, AAAf/S1+. San Bernardino County’s investment pool has received AAAf/S1+ rating every year since 1999 when I took office.

With California in the midst of housing and economic downturn, S & P noted the importance for each county to continue to conservatively manage its investment pools.

In the survey, San Bernardino County was credited for having high credit quality standards, diversification, and solid management oversight and operational controls. We understand that government investment pools are made up of the public’s money, dollars that are used to educate our children and provide public safety to our citizens. Therefore, we know it is our fiduciary responsibility to act as a guardian of these public dollars by following a conservative investment policy focused on safety, liquidity, and yield to maintain a safe investment pool.

Our conservative policies have helped us not only to receive the highest rating from S & P but also from both Moody’s and Fitch. In fact, our pool is one of the only investment pools in the state that has received the highest possible investment rating by all three of these worldwide-recognized credit rating agencies.

Adelanto City UpdateBy Mike Borja, Management Analyst

City of Barstow

The City of Adelanto continues to offer opportunity in all areas of development, with the potential of being a major industrial employer in the area. Adelanto’s retail, industrial, and commercial market will begin to capitalize on the tremendous opportunities in the Victor Valley.

With more than 80 companies selecting Adelanto as their place of business, Adelanto has constructed over 8200 homes and has provided 4500 jobs in its three industrial parks. With the growth, comes the need for water and sewage expansion. Adelanto currently has inter-tie agreements with Baldy Mesa, Victor Valley Water District, and RCubed (MWA). Most recent projects include the construction of a small treatment plant and a 5 million gallon storage tank. The city’s sewage expansion project includes expanding the city’s 1.5 to 2 million-gallon-per-day capacity to a 4 million-gallon-per-day

continued on page 18

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portfolio is comprised of distribution facilities that are built for speed and located near airports, seaports, and ground transportation systems.

The Adelanto Gateway Logistics Center will consist of 10 to 15 industrial buildings that will range from 550,000 to 1.5 million square feet each. AMB Property expects to develop several buildings as build-to-suits. All of the buildings will be for sale or lease, with AMB Property set to manage the leased properties. The land purchase was completed in mid-June 2007 and announced July 2, 2007. The land was acquired by AMB in an assemblage purchase from a series of private investors. The project looks to be one of the biggest logistics project in the Victor Valley, with the potential of bringing in various manufacturing jobs.

Known as the “City of Unlimited Possibilities,” Adelanto’s philosophy looks to be well underway.

capacity, with a projected completion date of December 2008.

Since breaking ground in 2005, Stater Bros. in the Adelanto Marketplace at the northwest corner of Palmdale Road and U.S. Highway 395 has seen significant growth. Supermarket chain was the first business to open in the center and is still one of the top-performing stores of the Southern California-based grocery chain.

The Adelanto Marketplace is a neighborhood shopping center that encompasses approximately 90,367 square feet of retail space. The center is anchored by the 42,478 square feet Stater Brothers Supermarket and a 15,789 square foot Longs Drugs. Phase two of the marketplace is near completion, with a Bank of America and Carl’s Jr. in place. Soon to follow will be a Denny’s and a KFC/Long John Silver.

Adelanto residents will soon find in town many of the stores and services they previously had to travel to find. The community will be home to more retail, as well as industrial and manufacturing businesses — meaning more jobs.

The Adelanto Town Center, with a

Target as the main anchor, will be breaking ground late this year at the corner of Highway 395 and Mojave Drive on 33 acres of land. The Target is considered to be the store’s future prototype. In addition, plans call for two to three additional recognized national chains as well as a variety of shops, services, and food. Adelanto partnered with the Lewis Retail to bring the development to the city. The location of the project solidifies the theory that Highway 395 is set to become a major retail corridor in the region.

Adelanto Gateway Logistics Center is a 74-acre industrial project that is expected to break ground late in the year across from the Southern California Logistics Airport. It will serve as a distribution center for the Los Angeles basin as well as Arizona, Nevada and Utah. AMB Property Corporation is a leading global developer and owner of industrial real estate, focused on major hub and gateway distribution markets throughout North America, Europe, and Asia. As of March 31, 2007, AMB owned, or had investments in properties and development projects expected to total approximately 128.2 million square feet in 40 markets within 13 countries. The company’s

Adelanto City UpdateContinued

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The Bradco High Desert Report760.951.5111 • Fax: 760.951.5113 • www.colliers.com/victorville • [email protected]

continued on page 20

Apple Valley: Proud of its Commercial; Getting Ready for

Industrial

Strong economic development, planning and organizational programs positioned Apple Valley as a dynamic and prosperous market during the economic expansion of the last half-decade. Today its 75,263 residents enjoy the Victor Valley region’s premier housing and can now shop and dine locally with nearly 2.5 million square feet of retail space recently opened or under construction.

Since 2005, more than 200 new stores and restaurants have opened, with another 80 expected by January 2009. The following tenants have opened this last year: WinCo Foods, Super Target, UltraStar Cinema, Mervyn’s, the town’s second Lowe’s Home Improvement Warehouse, Kirkland’s Home, Lane Bryant, Oggi’s Pizza & Brewery, Anytime Fitness, Chipotle, Staples, The Wine Seller, and many more. Additionally, the following tenants are among those slated to open in 2008-09: Cinemark Theater, Red Robin, Office Max, Best Buy, Bed Bath and Beyond, 24-Hour Fitness, Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar and a Wal-Mart Supercenter. Because Apple Valley’s greater trade area has been traditionally underserved, many of the new commercial enterprises are exceeding their company’s financial projections.

Growth also remains strong in the service commercial sector of the Apple Valley Village Business District, located east of Navajo Road, alongside State Route 18. Nearly 175,000 square feet of light industrial/commercial service facilities have recently opened, or are under construction, adding to Apple Valley’s diverse market place.

Buttressing Apple Valley’s assertion that its commercial market remains strong despite the national economic slow down, financial reports indicate Apple Valley’s 4Q 2007 sales tax revenue growth of 16.2% over 4Q 2006 was the largest of any city within San Bernardino County. Further validation is seen in Apple Valley’s ranking in the 2007 Kosmont Companies-Rose Institute “Cost of Doing Business Survey” as one of the four least costly cities for doing business in the High Desert/Inland Empire region.

North Apple Valley Industrial Specific Plan

As Apple Valley’s commercial marketplace continues to mature, the town is readying its 5,100 acre North Apple Valley Industrial Specific Plan (NAVISP) area to be a major hub for logistics, research and development, and light manufacturing facilities. At build-out, the NAVISP will produce over 38,000 jobs for Apple Valley and the Victor Valley region.

Scarce industrial land and rising land and development costs in the Los Angeles Basin continue to enhance Apple Valley’s strategic benefits—

affordable and ample land, prime market access, an excellent surface transportation network, and a high quality workforce. These attributes, along with the fastest industrial development entitlement process in California makes the NAVISP the industrial location of choice. Most sites are located fewer than 7 minutes from Interstate 15, allowing for the quick and efficient transport of goods and services to the I-10, I-40, US-395, SR-58, SR-18 freeways and highways, able to reach the vast majority of western and midwestern markets within 24 hours. Apple Valley Airport, a general aviation airport located within the boundaries of the NAVISP, offers convenience for private corporate travel.

To facilitate infrastructure expansion, the town is working with the primary local water purveyor and Fire Protection District to determine the location and scope of backbone water system improvements, as well as the development and implementation of the related financing plan. The town is also paving several miles of streets to increase circulation and provide Fire District-required secondary paved access routes. Environmental and alignment studies are also ongoing for the future High Desert Corridor, linking the Victor Valley with north Los Angeles County (Anelope Valley), creating a new interchange at Interstate 15, and providing a major east-west corridor for the NAVISP and north Apple Valley.

Apple Valley’s growing industrial

Town of Apple ValleyCity Update

By Orlando R. Acevedo, Economic Development Specialist

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environmental review, approved land-use criteria and entitlements, and adequate infrastructure.

A Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP), expected to be released in 2009, will address Endangered Species Act compliance and allow the town to apply identified mitigation measures to local land use decisions, thereby streamlining the development entitlement process and providing project proponents certainty once local approvals are obtained. The HCP will eliminate the necessity for individual project approvals by State Fish and Game and Federal Fish and Wildlife agencies.

Forward-thinking and a business-friendly attitude make it easy to get your slice of the Apple! Come see for yourself at www.applevalley.org.

approval process, a project can be entitled in as little as 120 calendar days from the time an application is deemed COMPLETE. A previously built structure that conforms to the NAVISP development standards can be entitled in 45 days from the time an application is deemed COMPLETE.

McCallum Sweeney Certified Site. Upon completion of a comprehensive due-diligence analysis prepared by the distinguished site selection consultant team of McCallum Sweeney Consulting (MSC), an 80-acre site, held by Watson Land Company, was selected in 2007 as the first certified site in California. The certified “shovel-ready” site removes entitlement and approval uncertainties by providing due-diligence services by MSC and a Southern California Edison streamlined permit process. The certified site demonstrates to prospective investors and end-users that Apple Valley has met various readiness criteria and is marketing property that carries far less development and schedule risk than non-certified sites. The MSC process includes completion of an extensive

market is exemplified by a 1.3 million square foot Wal-Mart Distribution Center and a 70,000 square foot Fresenius Medical Care Distribution Center, together employing nearly 1,100 persons. Major industrial development entities, including First Industrial Realty Trust and Watson Land Company, are preparing industrial park development plans for their recently acquired 900-plus acres.Apple Valley realizes “time to market” is critical. In addition to ample land in a prime location, the NAVISP offers a streamlined entitlement process where a project can break ground in 120-days. Here are a few reasons why Apple Valley offers the most efficient entitlement process in California:

Certified Environmental Impact Report (EIR) exempts projects from further environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Any technical studies required prior to issuance of a grading permit are identified as part of the EIR mitigation measures. With an adopted EIR, and a streamlined administrative site plan review and

Town of Apple ValleyCity Update

Continued

Proud to be a partof the

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5808 STATE HIGHWAY 18LUCERNE VALLEY, CA 92356-9691

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to encourage business investment and promote the creation of new jobs through tax incentives for businesses that locate in the zone.

The city of Barstow, and especially the Barstow Industrial Park, offers ideal sites for manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution activities due to its strategic access to major highways, airports, railways, and deep-water ports.

With these advantages, the Barstow Industrial Park was selected by the world’s largest retailer to be the home for one of its mechanized distribution centers. Wal-Mart announced its plans to build and operate a food distribution center in the Barstow Industrial Park. The Barstow Planning Commission unanimously voted in June to recommend that the City Council approve the project at its meeting in July. The more than 1 million-square-foot distribution center encompassing 147 acres will bring about 500 new jobs to the area during the first years of operation and between 800 and 900 jobs about two years later. Wal-Mart also has plans to expand the current Wal-Mart in Barstow to a Super Wal-Mart by 2010.

With 60 million visitors traveling through Barstow each year, the service and hotel sectors continue to flourish in Barstow. The four-story, 90-room Hampton Inn & Suites opened next to Tanger Outlets. The Comfort Inn and Country Inn & Suites are in their final stages of construction in the outlet area. La Quinta is planning to build a hotel in late 2008 on a site near these two hotels currently under construction. A new Chili’s restaurant will open in July adjacent to the Country Inn & Suites.

Tanger Outlet’s new 65,000-sq.-ft. addition is now open and features Sketchers, Wilson’s Leather, Banana

Barstow City UpdateBy Ron Rector

Economic Development Manager

The city of Barstow is focused on increasing economic opportunities for all our citizens and bringing high-quality, high-paying, family-supporting jobs to Barstow. As the national economy confronts a potential recession, Barstow is well positioned to ride out the storm due to our balanced economy supported by the military, railroad, tourism, manufacturing, and logistics.

The city of Barstow continues to experience low unemployment levels, considerable economic growth in new construction, property valuation, and sales tax revenues. While taxable sales for all of San Bernardino County were down 6.4 percent over the comparable period, and Southern California region as a whole was down 3 percent, Barstow’s actual sales activity was up 6.2 percent.

The most exciting project for the city of Barstow with regard to job creation is the 1,200-acre Barstow Industrial Park. IDS Real Estate, the developer for the soon-to-be rail-served Barstow Industrial Park, will offer large parcels of land within 3 miles of Interstate 15.

IDS is working to complete the Environmental Impact Report and to obtain all entitlements by the end of 2008. IDS estimates that it will construct 16.5 million square feet of new industrial buildings over a seven- to nine-year period. It is anticipated that each 1 million square feet of new space will create between 500 to 750 new jobs, depending on the particular industry. When fully developed, the Barstow Industrial Park could create between 8,250 and 12,400 new living-wage jobs

The Barstow Industrial Park is located within the Barstow Enterprise Zone, which the state of California awarded in 2006. The Barstow Enterprise Zone provides special incentives designed

Republic, Gymboree, Ann Taylor, Claire’s, Sunglass Hut, and several others. A national 99 Cent store recently opened on Main Street in Barstow.

Community Health Systems (CHS), one of the nation’s leading operators of general acute care hospitals with more than 110 hospitals in 28 states, has submitted the plans for the new Barstow Community Hospital to the Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development. CHS expects to break ground in 2009 on the new hospital to be located on the 19-acre site across Mountain View Street from the current facility and be open in late 2011.

The Center of Science and Technology (COSAT) project includes the relocation of the Pioneer antenna from Goldstone, where it was declared operational in December 1958, to a site located on the Barstow Community College grounds. This 90-foot tall historic landmark was named for the Pioneer 3 Mission. The Co-Sat will be a Smithsonian Affiliate Museum and will include science classrooms, laboratories, observatory, planetarium, and a NASA teacher resource center. This project will allow the city of Barstow to help define 21st Century space and technology education.

A strong foundation for future growth is in place. Each year the city breaks records for new capital investment, job creation, and tax revenues. New job-creating businesses continue to move into the city and many more plan on announcing their developments in the city of Barstow in the near future. Barstow is businesses’ “Crossroads of Opportunity” now more than ever.

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Hesperia’sPopulation

Approaching 100,000

According to recently released Claritas statistics, the population of the city of Hesperia and its sphere of influence has continued its steady upward climb. Showing an 8% increase over 2007, the population is estimated at 98,917, with a five-year projection expected to approach 118,00 residents.

An increase in growth by 128% is phenomenal by any measure; it is extraordinary that this increase has happened just since the incorporation of the city twenty years ago when the estimated population was 43,400. Today, Hesperia ranks in the top 18% of California cities based on Department of Finance population estimates. Much has changed during these past two decades.

The city of Hesperia is a thriving community with plenty of vacant land on which we are experiencing steady development growth throughout the commercial and industrial sectors; more so than ever in the past. While our demographics have changed significantly, there is one thing that hasn’t changed in twenty years – Hesperia is still among the very best places in California to develop!

Ice In The Desert

One of the High Desert’s most unique projects, an ice skating facility, is about

to begin construction in Hesperia, sited along the northbound lanes of Interstate 15, north of Main Street and the proposed Riley/Asheghian retail project.

The rink’s owner, Anthony Liu, has teamed up with Landvest Development and the Hesperia Community Redevelopment Agency to build a 33,000 square foot rink that will provide public skating, host hockey leagues, and will be a springboard for finding and training Olympic skaters. Mr. Liu is a former Olympic champion and is the owner and trainer for the internationally known Ice Castle located in Lake Arrowhead, California.

A site plan has already received approvals and building plans are being finalized. The facility, with a 100’ x 200’ rink, will feature two team locker rooms with showers, skate rentals, pro shop, video games, vending machines and concessions. A grand opening is expected by early Spring of 2009.

Target To Open In October 2008

Target’s 180,000 square-foot Super Center located in the High Desert Gateway at the Southwest quadrant of Interstate 15 and Main Street is on schedule to open October 12, 2008. This is the first of many tenants to open its doors at this interchange which will have approximately 3,000,000 square feet of commercial/retail under roof upon buildout.

Lewis Retail, the developer of High Desert Gateway, also has 25,000 square

feet of shop space under construction, with an additional 155,000 square feet planned for junior anchors and restaurants in Phase I. Located directly to the west of Phase I, Phase II will have approximately 214,000 square feet of retail and shop space.

Orchard Supply Hardware (OSH) To Open July 2008

Following initial meetings with city of Hesperia Council Members and Economic Development staff at the 2007 International Council of Shopping Centers Conferences, Orchard Supply Hardware (OSH) chose to locate in Hesperia on Main Street where H & E Do It Yourself Center was once located. Orchard Supply Hardware, a leading chain of home and garden retail stores, is currently remodeling the existing 32,000-square foot store with an additional nursery/garden center that will offer a selection of merchandise tailored to Hesperia’s climate and lifestyle. A store of this size represents a significant investment in the community and creates up to 45 new jobs.

From the time of the meeting in San Diego last September, to the anticipated grand opening on August 2, staff has worked to ensure a smooth entry to the city. “This is a great example of how the city continues to bring retail to Hesperia, and demonstrates how participation at these conferences benefits the City’s retail attraction efforts,” said Steven Lantsberger, Deputy Economic Development Director.

Hesperia City UpdateBy Lisa LaMere

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Recently Stirling Capital, master developer of SCLA, announced the completion of its fourth industrial building at the Southern California Logistics Centre (SCLC) at SCLA. The Class A industrial facility, known as Distribution Centre 13A, consists of 296,490 square feet on approximately 17 acres. Also under construction is 1 million square feet for distribution or manufacturing use. Already completed is the Multi-Tenant Business Centre, providing over 220,000 square feet of industrial and business park space.

For more information about this landmark project, please contact Collette Hanna at 760-243-6324.

Southern California Logistics Airport (SCLA) is set to become the home of a Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) state of-the-art production and distribution center. An agreement between the Victorville Redevelopment Agency and DPS was approved on June 17, 2008, which culminates 15 months of discussions and negotiations between the two entities. DPS was spun off by Cadbury Schweppes as a part of an initial public offering on May 7, 2008. The DPS plant will be constructed on a 55-acre site and will feature an 850,000 square-foot building including 550,000 square feet of warehouse space, a 275,000 square-foot manufacturing plant, and 25,000 square feet of office space. The capital investment being made by DPS is estimated at $100 million.

According to Keith Metzler, Director of Economic Development, the plant will produce 40 million cases each year and is expected to employ 200 new employees.

The construction project also features an environmentally friendly component. The production of the beverages will result in the need to safely discharge industrial strength

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group Selects SCLA for New FacilityBy Collette Hanna

Business Development Manager, City of Victorville

wastewater from the plant operations. Current alternatives were not cost effective so city staff evaluated the cost to design and construct a new wastewater treatment facility capable of handling the DPS plant and other future users. The new treatment facility will be constructed concurrently with the new DPS plant.

Pending approval by the City, construction is set to begin on both facilities in October 2008 with a projected opening in early 2010.

With the anticipated addition of DPS, SCLA is well on its way of continuing to produce local jobs. Last year, Newell-Rubbermaid opened its facility at SCLA and created 85 local jobs in its first phase.

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l Factual economic information about the Inland Empire North/e corridor, including the cities of Adelanto, Barstow, Hesperia and Victorville, the Town of Apple Valley, and northern San

Bernardino Countyl Published since May 1993l Sales and permit trendsl Economic analysisl Updated overview of quarterly absorbency rates of commercial,

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from highly respected professionals, effected property owners, investors, developers and lenders, local businesses, anyone with a vested financial interest in the High Desert

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