5 a vanlatesteijn
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Henk C. van Latesteijn
Are FDI’s by Arab Countries really needed for food security?
The background
Global food requirements in 2050
‘Scenarios’ Biomass (109 tons GE)
Current 7
2050: food and feed 12
2050: + 10% of global energy supply
17
2050: + all citizens a European diet
23
Countries Type of growth
Poor Population growth
More food
Middle-income
Economic growth
More feed and feedstock
Rich Biobased economy
More feedstock
GE = Grain Equivalents
Food security = risk management
Global trade Optimize comparative advantages FDI’s Expand production base Metropolitan agriculture Production and access in urban areas Yield gap closure Unlock nature’s potential in rural regions
1
2
3
4
Global trade: vegetables
exports
imports
Source: worldmapper.org
1
Global trade: dairy
exports
imports
Source: worldmapper.org
1
Global FDI’s in Agriculture 2
Source: UNCTAD, 2009
Metropolitan agriculture 3
COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE
ORGANIC & ENVIRONMENTA
L CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE
METROPOLITAN AGRICULTURE
URBAN AGRICULTURE
Sustainable Intensification
Sustainable Diversification
Sustainable Re-valuation
Metropolitan agriculture and food security 3
Production
Access
Improve local productivity
YIELD GAP CLOSURE
4
Source: Van Ittersum & Rabbinge, 1997
Why technical potentials are not easily realised
Producers maximize profit, not yield Less favoured areas have higher input-
output price ratios Closing yield gaps requires research effort Depletion of fossil fuels and phosphate
rock raises input prices
Supply becomes tight long before technical potentials have been exhausted
4
Global Yield Gap Atlas 4
Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)
Lacking Data 4
Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)
Conclusions
Food security asks for production increase
Different pathways are available Food security = risk management Don’t put all your eggs in one
basket Invest in different options
Thank you